Redistribution with ex-ante unobserved choice

Introducing dynamics to Mirrlees' (1971) optimal taxation model creates a whole new set of issues that are only starting to be investigated in the literature. When choices are made before one's realizing her productivity incentive constraints ought to be defined as a function of more complex strategies than in the static case. 80 far, all work has assumed that these choices are observable and can be contracted upon by the government. Here we investigate choices that : i) are not observed, andj ii) affect preferences conditional Oil the realization of types. In the simplest possible model where a non-trivial filtration is incorporated we show how these two characteristics make it necessary for IC constraints to be defined in terms of strategies rather than pure announcements. Tax prescriptions are derived, and it is shown that they bear some resemblance to classic optimal taxation results. We are able to show that in the most 'natural' cases return on capital ought to be taxed . However, we also show that the uniform taxation prescription of Atkinson and Stiglitz fails to hold, in general.

Yet another reason to tax goods

When, in a dynamic model, choices by an agent : i) are not observed, and; ii) affect preferences conditional on the realization of types, new and unexpected features come up in Mirrlees’ (1971) optimal taxation frame- work. In the simplest possible model where a non-trivial filtration may be incorporated, we show how these two characteristics make it neces- sary for IC constraints to be defined in terms of strategies rather than pure announcements. Tax prescriptions are derived, and we are able to show that uniform taxation prescription of Atkinson and Stiglitz fails to hold, in general. Clean results regarding capital income taxation are not easy to come about because usual assumption on preferences do not allow for determining which constraints bind at the optimum. However, in the most ’natural’ cases, we show that return on capital ought to be taxed.

Error analysis and attitude observability of a monocular GPS/visual odometry integrated navigation filter

In this paper, we present a method for the recovery of position and absolute attitude (including pitch, roll and yaw) using a novel fusion of monocular Visual Odometry and GPS measurements in a similar manner to a classic loosely-coupled GPS/INS error state navigation filter. The proposed filter does not require additional restrictions or assumptions such as platform-specific dynamics, map-matching, feature-tracking, visual loop-closing, gravity vector or additional sensors such as an IMU or magnetic compass. An observability analysis of the proposed filter is performed, showing that the scale factor, position and attitude errors are fully observable under acceleration that is non-parallel to velocity vector in the navigation frame. The observability properties of the proposed filter are demonstrated using numerical simulations. We conclude the article with an implementation of the proposed filter using real flight data collected from a Cessna 172 equipped with a downwards-looking camera and GPS, showing the feasibility of the algorithm in real-world conditions.

On the observability of turbulent transport rates by Argo: supporting evidence from an inversion experiment

Although estimation of turbulent transport parameters using inverse methods is not new, there is little evaluation of the method in the literature. Here, it is shown that extended observation of the broad scale hydrography by Argo provides a path to improved estimates of regional turbulent transport rates. Results from a 20 year ocean state estimate produced with the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework provide supporting evidence. Turbulent transport parameter maps are estimated under the constraints of fitting the extensive collection of Argo profiles collected through 2011. The adjusted parameters dramatically reduce misfits to in situ profiles as compared with earlier ECCO solutions. They also yield a clear reduction in the model drift away from observations over multi-century long simulations, both for assimilated variables (temperature and salinity) and independent variables (bio-geochemical tracers). Despite the minimal constraints imposed specifically on the estimated parameters, their geography is physically plausible and exhibits close connections with the upper ocean ocean stratification as observed by Argo. The estimated parameter adjustments furthermore have first order impacts on upper-ocean stratification and mixed layer depths over 20 years. These results identify the constraint of fitting Argo profiles as an effective observational basis for regional turbulent transport rates. Uncertainties and further improvements of the method are discussed.

Observability of high density tracing molecular lines in lensed galaxies with the Atacama large millimeter array

Lo scopo di questo lavoro di tesi è indagare le capacità di ALMA di osservare il continuo e le righe molecolari di emissione di HCN, HCO+ e HNC, in galassie lensate ad alto z, nelle prime fasi della loro formazione. Per farlo vengono utilizzate osservazioni ALMA di righe di emissione molecolare, relative a dati pubblici di Ciclo 0. Queste osservazioni vengono utilizzate per simulare in modo realistico l’emissione da parte di galassie ad alto z e la risposta osservativa del telescopio, assumendo diverse possibili geometrie di lensing. Inoltre le recenti osservazioni ALMA sono state utilizzate per aggiornare le relazioni già esistenti tra la luminosità FIR e la luminosità delle righe molecolari. Queste recenti osservazioni con maggiore sensibilità e risoluzione angolare, sembrano essere in buon accordo con le precedenti osservazioni. Per realizzare questo progetto di tesi, sono stati scaricati dall’archivio ALMA i dati non calibrati relativi a due sorgenti ben studiate: NGC1614, rappresentativa delle galassie di tipo starburst ed IRAS 20551-4250, un AGN oscurato. Il processo di calibrazione è stato ripetuto per esaminare le proprietà dei cubi di dati utilizzando il pacchetto Common Astronomy Software Applications (CASA). Le righe spettrali osservate e l’emissione del continuo sono state successivamente estrapolate ad alto z riscalando adeguatamente le distanze, le dimensioni delle sorgenti e le frequenze di emissione. In seguito è stato applicato un modello di lensing gravitazionale basato su quello di Lapi et al. (2012). Sono state considerate diverse configurazioni tra lente e sorgente per ottenere diverse geometrie delle immagini e diversi fattori di amplificazione. Infine stato utilizzato il software CASA per simulare le osservazioni ALMA in modo da verificare le capacità osservative del telescopio al variare della geometria del sistema. Per ogni riga molecolare e per l’emissione del continuo sono state determinate la sensibilit e la risoluzione che possono essere raggiunte con le osservazioni ALMA e sono state analizzate alcune strategie osservative per effettuare survey di righe spettrali in oggetti lensati. Inoltre stata analizzata la possibilit di caratterizzare oggetti starburst ed AGN dai rapporti tra le righe di emissione delle molecole traccianti di alta densit. Le prestazioni di ALMA consentiranno di distinguere e stimare i contributi relativi di SB ed AGN in galassie lensate a z > 2.5, quindi vicine alla loro presunta epoca di formazione (Lapi et al. 2010), in meno di 5 minuti di osservazione per qualsiasi fattore di magnificazione. Nel presente lavoro sono state inoltre discusse alcune strategie osservative per condurre survey o followup per osservare le righe di HCN(4-3), HCO+(4-3) e HNC(4-3) in galassie lensate a redshift 2.5 < z < 3, dimostrando che sono possibili per campioni statisticamente significativi in tempi relativamente brevi.

Correcting for bias when estimating the cost of hospital-acquired infection : an analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in non-surgical patients

Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).

A Petrov-Galerkin method for a singularly perturbed ordinary differential equation with non-smooth data

In this paper, a singularly perturbed ordinary differential equation with non-smooth data is considered. The numerical method is generated by means of a Petrov-Galerkin finite element method with the piecewise-exponential test function and the piecewise-linear trial function. At the discontinuous point of the coefficient, a special technique is used. The method is shown to be first-order accurate and singular perturbation parameter uniform convergence. Finally, numerical results are presented, which are in agreement with theoretical results.