Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Detection and description of non-linear interdependence in normal multichannel human EEG data

Objectives: This study examines human scalp electroencephalographic (EEG) data for evidence of non-linear interdependence between posterior channels. The spectral and phase properties of those epochs of EEG exhibiting non-linear interdependence are studied. Methods: Scalp EEG data was collected from 40 healthy subjects. A technique for the detection of non-linear interdependence was applied to 2.048 s segments of posterior bipolar electrode data. Amplitude-adjusted phase-randomized surrogate data was used to statistically determine which EEG epochs exhibited non-linear interdependence. Results: Statistically significant evidence of non-linear interactions were evident in 2.9% (eyes open) to 4.8% (eyes closed) of the epochs. In the eyes-open recordings, these epochs exhibited a peak in the spectral and cross-spectral density functions at about 10 Hz. Two types of EEG epochs are evident in the eyes-closed recordings; one type exhibits a peak in the spectral density and cross-spectrum at 8 Hz. The other type has increased spectral and cross-spectral power across faster frequencies. Epochs identified as exhibiting non-linear interdependence display a tendency towards phase interdependencies across and between a broad range of frequencies. Conclusions: Non-linear interdependence is detectable in a small number of multichannel EEG epochs, and makes a contribution to the alpha rhythm. Non-linear interdependence produces spatially distributed activity that exhibits phase synchronization between oscillations present at different frequencies. The possible physiological significance of these findings are discussed with reference to the dynamical properties of neural systems and the role of synchronous activity in the neocortex. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We test whether there are nonlinearities in the response of short- and long-term interest rates to the spread in interest rates, and assess the out-of-sample predictability of interest rates using linear and nonlinear models. We find strong evidence of nonlinearities in the response of interest rates to the spread. Nonlinearities are shown to result in more accurate short-horizon forecasts, especially of the spread.

Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

A comparison of test of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We evaluate the forecasting performance of a number of systems models of US shortand long-term interest rates. Non-linearities, induding asymmetries in the adjustment to equilibrium, are shown to result in more accurate short horizon forecasts. We find that both long and short rates respond to disequilibria in the spread in certain circumstances, which would not be evident from linear representations or from single-equation analyses of the short-term interest rate.

A positional FEM Formulation for geometrical non-linear analysis of shells

This work presents a fully non-linear finite element formulation for shell analysis comprising linear strain variation along the thickness of the shell and geometrically exact description for curved triangular elements. The developed formulation assumes positions and generalized unconstrained vectors as the variables of the problem, not displacements and finite rotations. The full 3D Saint-Venant-Kirchhoff constitutive relation is adopted and, to avoid locking, the rate of thickness variation enhancement is introduced. As a consequence, the second Piola-Kirchhoff stress tensor and the Green strain measure are employed to derive the specific strain energy potential. Curved triangular elements with cubic approximation are adopted using simple notation. Selected numerical simulations illustrate and confirm the objectivity, accuracy, path independence and applicability of the proposed technique.

GLOBAL WELL-POSEDNESS AND NON-LINEAR STABILITY OF PERIODIC TRAVELING WAVES FOR A SCHRODINGER-BENJAMIN-ONO SYSTEM

The objective of this paper is two-fold: firstly, we develop a local and global (in time) well-posedness theory for a system describing the motion of two fluids with different densities under capillary-gravity waves in a deep water flow (namely, a Schrodinger-Benjamin-Ono system) for low-regularity initial data in both periodic and continuous cases; secondly, a family of new periodic traveling waves for the Schrodinger-Benjamin-Ono system is given: by fixing a minimal period we obtain, via the implicit function theorem, a smooth branch of periodic solutions bifurcating a Jacobian elliptic function called dnoidal, and, moreover, we prove that all these periodic traveling waves are nonlinearly stable by perturbations with the same wavelength.

Non-linear boundary element formulation applied to contact analysis using tangent operator

This work presents a non-linear boundary element formulation applied to analysis of contact problems. The boundary element method (BEM) is known as a robust and accurate numerical technique to handle this type of problem, because the contact among the solids occurs along their boundaries. The proposed non-linear formulation is based on the use of singular or hyper-singular integral equations by BEM, for multi-region contact. When the contact occurs between crack surfaces, the formulation adopted is the dual version of BEM, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are defined along the opposite sides of the contact boundaries. The structural non-linear behaviour on the contact is considered using Coulomb`s friction law. The non-linear formulation is based on the tangent operator in which one uses the derivate of the set of algebraic equations to construct the corrections for the non-linear process. This implicit formulation has shown accurate as the classical approach, however, it is faster to compute the solution. Examples of simple and multi-region contact problems are shown to illustrate the applicability of the proposed scheme. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simple method for non-linear analysis of steel fiber reinforced concrete

This paper proposes a physical non-linear formulation to deal with steel fiber reinforced concrete by the finite element method. The proposed formulation allows the consideration of short or long fibers placed arbitrarily inside a continuum domain (matrix). The most important feature of the formulation is that no additional degree of freedom is introduced in the pre-existent finite element numerical system to consider any distribution or quantity of fiber inclusions. In other words, the size of the system of equations used to solve a non-reinforced medium is the same as the one used to solve the reinforced counterpart. Another important characteristic of the formulation is the reduced work required by the user to introduce reinforcements, avoiding ""rebar"" elements, node by node geometrical definitions or even complex mesh generation. Bounded connection between long fibers and continuum is considered, for short fibers a simplified approach is proposed to consider splitting. Non-associative plasticity is adopted for the continuum and one dimensional plasticity is adopted to model fibers. Examples are presented in order to show the capabilities of the formulation.

Non-linear boundary element formulation with tangent operator to analyse crack propagation in quasi-brittle materials

This work deals with analysis of cracked structures using BEM. Two formulations to analyse the crack growth process in quasi-brittle materials are discussed. They are based on the dual formulation of BEM where two different integral equations are employed along the opposite sides of the crack surface. The first presented formulation uses the concept of constant operator, in which the corrections of the nonlinear process are made only by applying appropriate tractions along the crack surfaces. The second presented BEM formulation to analyse crack growth problems is an implicit technique based on the use of a consistent tangent operator. This formulation is accurate, stable and always requires much less iterations to reach the equilibrium within a given load increment in comparison with the classical approach. Comparison examples of classical problem of crack growth are shown to illustrate the performance of the two formulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A solid-like FEM for geometrically non-linear 3D frames

This study presents a solid-like finite element formulation to solve geometric non-linear three-dimensional inhomogeneous frames. To achieve the desired representation, unconstrained vectors are used instead of the classic rigid director triad; as a consequence, the resulting formulation does not use finite rotation schemes. High order curved elements with any cross section are developed using a full three-dimensional constitutive elastic relation. Warping and variable thickness strain modes are introduced to avoid locking. The warping mode is solved numerically in FEM pre-processing computational code, which is coupled to the main program. The extra calculations are relatively small when the number of finite elements. with the same cross section, increases. The warping mode is based on a 2D free torsion (Saint-Venant) problem that considers inhomogeneous material. A scheme that automatically generates shape functions and its derivatives allow the use of any degree of approximation for the developed frame element. General examples are solved to check the objectivity, path independence, locking free behavior, generality and accuracy of the proposed formulation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.