Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Nile River Delta Region, Egypt, 1821-1823 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte ancienne et comparée de la Basse Égypte, rédigé par M. le Colonel Jacotin et par M. Jomard, Membre de l'Institut ; d'après la Grande Carte Topographique levée pendant l'expédition de l'Armée Française par les ingénieurs géographes, les ingénieurs militaires et les ingénieurs des ponts et chaussées ; Blondeau Sct. It was published by Impr. Royale between 1821 and 1823. Scale 1:500,000. Covers the Nile River Delta Region, Egypt. Map in French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Egypt Red Belt projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, canals, cities and other human settlements, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown by shading and hachures. Harvard Map Collection copies contain manuscript historical annotations and corrections.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River & Red Sea Region, 1884 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: A map of the Nile, from the equatorial lakes to the Mediterranean : embracing the eastern Sûdan (Kordofan, Darfur &c.) and Abyssinia. It was published by E. Stanford in 1884. Scale [ca. 1:6,000,000). Covers the Nile River and Red Sea regions. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Africa Sinusoidal projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, roads, railroads, exploration routes, and more. Relief shown by hachures. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River & Red Sea Region, 1822 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte générale de l'Egypte et de l'Arabie Pétrée, par A. H. Brué, Géographe de S.A.R. Monsieur. It was published by Chez l'auteur, Rue des Maçons Sorbonne, No. 9 in Mai 1822. Scale [ca. 1:2,350,000]. Covers the Nile River and Red Sea regions. Map in French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Egypt Red Belt projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, historic sites and ruins, and more. Relief shown by hachures.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River & Red Sea Region, 1828 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte historique, physique & politique de l'Egypte, dressée par le Ch.er Lapie, 1er Géographe du Roi, Officier supérieur au Corps Royal des Ingénieurs Géographes, d'après les itinéraires & les reconnaissances recueillis par MM. les Généraux Comtes Guilleminot, Tromelin & Fernig, ainsi que d'après ceux de MM. Pacho, Caillaud, Coste, Burckhardt, Irwin &c. et les travaux de la Commission d'Egypte, le tout appuyé sur les Observations Astronomiques de MM. Gauttier, Smith, Rüppel & Nouet ; gravé par Flahaut, Rue de l'Est, N°1 ; écrit par Hacq, Graveur du Dèpôt de la Guerre. It was published by Chez Ch. Picquet in 1828. Scale [ca 1:120,000]. Covers the Nile River and Red Sea regions. Map in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Egypt Red Belt projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, roads, historic sites and ruins, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes insets: "Plan d'Alexandrie" (1:50,000) and "Plan du Caire" (1:50,000).This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River & Red Sea Region, ca. 1870 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Egypt, Arabia Petraea, and lower Nubia, by Keith Johnston. It was published by William Blackwood & Sons ; W. & K. Johnston, ca. 1870. Scale [ca. 1:2,854,868]. Covers the Nile River and Red Sea regions.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Egypt Red Belt projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, roads, railroads, canals, wells, and more. Covers the Nile River and Red Sea regions.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River and Birkat Qārūn Regions, Egypt, 1854 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte hydrographique de la Moyenne Égypte, où sont indiqués les travaux exécutés ou à exécuter, d'après les ordres de Son Altesse Mehémet-Ali, Vice-Roi d'Egypte. Avec le projet de communication directe des deux mers au travers de l'Isthme, par M. Linant de Bellefonds ; gravée par Schwaerzlé et Erhard. It was published by Dépôt de la Guerre in 1854. Scale 1:250,000. Covers a portion of the Nile River region near Birkat Qārūn, Banī Suwayf, Al Fayyūm, and Al Minyā. Map in French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Egypt Red Belt projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, canals, roads, cities and other human settlements, administrative boundaries, ruins and historical sites, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also text and notes.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River Delta Region, Egypt, 1855 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte hydrographique de la Basse Égypte et d'une partie de l'Isthme de Suez où sont indiqués les travaux exécutés ou à exécuter, d'après les ordres de Son Altesse Mehémet-Ali, Vice-Roi d'Egypte. Avec le projet de communication directe des deux mers au travers de l'Isthme, par M. Linant de Bellefonds ; gravée par Schwaerzlé. It was published by Dépot Général de la Guerre de France in 1855. Scale 1:250,000. Covers the Nile River Delta region, Egypt. Map in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Egypt Red Belt projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, canals, roads, railroads, cities and other human settlements, fortification, administrative boundaries, shoreline features, ruins and historical sites, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also text, Profile de l'Isthme de Suèz, and notes.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River Region, Egypt, 1855 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte hydrographique de la partie septentrionale de la haute Égypt : ou sont indiqués les travaux d'arrosage exécutés ou à exécuter d'après les ordres de Son Altesse Mehémet-Ali, Vice-Roi d'Egypte, par M. Linant de Bellefonds ; gravée par Erhard. It was published by Dépôt de la Guerre in 1855. Scale 1:250,000. Covers a portion of the Nile River region near Asyūţ and Sūhāj, Egypt. Map in French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Egypt Red Belt projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, canals, roads, railroads, cities and other human settlements, administrative boundaries, ruins and historical sites, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also text and notes.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River & Red Sea Region, 1810 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Charte vom Nil Strome, oder Aegypten, Nubien und Habesch. It was published in 1810. Scale [ca. 1:7,000,000]. Covers the Nile River and Red Sea region. Map in German. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Africa Lambert Conformal Conic projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial and administrative boundaries, shoreline features, caravan routes, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes notes.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River Delta & Suez Canal Region, Egypt, 1880 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte de la basse Egypte et du canal maritime de Suez, dressée par Desbuissons ; gravé sur pier. et chrom. par P. Méa. It was published by E. Andriveau-Goujon in 1880. Scale 1:500,000. Covers the Nile River Delta and Suez Canal region, Egypt. Map in French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Africa Lambert Conformal Conic projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, canals, railroads, selected buildings, cultivated and uncultivated lands, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also insets: Plan d'Ismaïlia (1:25,000) -- Plan de la rade de Port Saïd et de l'embouchure du Canal dans la Méditerranée (1:60,000) -- Plan de la rade de Suez et de l'embouchure du Canal dans la Mer Rouge (1:60,000).This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Nile River Delta, Egypt, 1785 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the untitled historic paper map: Basse Egypte, E. Giraud, sculp. It was published by Onfroi in 1785. Scale [ca. 1:550,000]. Covers the Nile River Delta, Egypt. Map in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Africa Lambert Conformal Conic projected coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, canals, ancient branches of river and canals, cities and other human settlements, monasteries, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown by hachures. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Conflict resolution and policy making mediation in the Mekong River Basin

The Mekong River serves China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam covering an area of approximately 795, 000 square kilometres and the Mekong River basin is a delicate eco-system rich in natural resources and bio-diversity. Competing demands for increasingly scarce supplies of water, the reciprocal impacts of land and water uses and inadequate governance arrangements have given rise to conflicts that has to be resolved by policy making to facilitate a process, whereby the main principles adopted in the Mekong River Agreement can be implemented.

Análisis del papel geoestratégico del río Nilo Azul en la estructuración de las relaciones entre Egipto Sudán y Etiopía entre 1990-2002

El río Nilo es considerado como un recurso que es estratégico, vital y escaso para los países de la cuenca de río, en especial para Egipto, Sudán y Etiopía. Por ello las relaciones políticas entre estos actores fluctuado ente la hostilidad y la cooperación

Religião e sociedade no Egito antigo: do mito de Ísis e Osíris na obra de Plutarco (I d.C.)

Pós-graduação em História - FCLAS