PREGNANCY-RELATED CHURN AND ACCESS TO CARE IN THE CONTEXT OF NARROW NETWORKS IN WASHINGTON STATE

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-03

Performance load testing and structural adequacy evaluation of road bridge decks

Many ageing road bridges, particularly timber bridges, require urgent improvement due to the demand imposed by the recent version of the Australian bridge loading code, AS 5100. As traffic volume plays a key role in the decision of budget allocations for bridge refurbishment/ replacement, many bridges in low volume traffic network remain in poor condition with axle load and/ or speed restrictions, thus disadvantaging many rural communities. This thesis examines an economical and environmentally sensible option of incorporating disused flat rail wagons (FRW) in the construction of bridges in low volume, high axle load road network. The constructability, economy and structural adequacy of the FRW road bridge is reported in the thesis with particular focus of a demonstration bridge commissioned in regional Queensland. The demonstration bridge comprises of a reinforced concrete slab (RCS) pavement resting on two FRWs with custom designed connection brackets at regular intervals along the span of the bridge. The FRW-RC bridge deck assembly is supported on elastomeric rubber pads resting on the abutment. As this type of bridge replacement technology is new and its structural design is not covered in the design standards, the in-service structural performance of the FRW bridge subjected to the high axle loadings prescribed in AS 5100 is examined through performance load testing. Both the static and the moving load tests are carried out using a fully laden commonly available three-axle tandem truck. The bridge deck is extensively strain gauged and displacement at several key locations is measured using linear variable displacement transducers (LVDTs). A high speed camera is used in the performance test and the digital image data are analysed using proprietary software to capture the locations of the wheel positions on the bridge span accurately. The wheel location is thus synchronised with the displacement and strain time series to infer the structural response of the FRW bridge. Field test data are used to calibrate a grillage model, developed for further analysis of the FRW bridge to various sets of high axle loads stipulated in the bridge design standard. Bridge behaviour predicted by the grillage model has exemplified that the live load stresses of the FRW bridge is significantly lower than the yield strength of steel and the deflections are well below the serviceability limit state set out in AS 5100. Based on the results reported in this thesis, it is concluded that the disused FRWs are competent to resist high axle loading prescribed in AS 5100 and are a viable alternative structural solution of bridge deck in the context of the low volume road networks.

Modelling for the electricity distribution network

Global awareness for cleaner and renewable energy is transforming the electricity sector at many levels. New technologies are being increasingly integrated into the electricity grid at high, medium and low voltage levels, new taxes on carbon emissions are being introduced and individuals can now produce electricity, mainly through rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. While leading to improvements, these changes also introduce challenges, and a question that often rises is ‘how can we manage this constantly evolving grid?’ The Queensland Government and Ergon Energy, one of the two Queensland distribution companies, have partnered with some Australian and German universities on a project to answer this question in a holistic manner. The project investigates the impact the integration of renewables and other new technologies has on the physical structure of the grid, and how this evolving system can be managed in a sustainable and economical manner. To aid understanding of what the future might bring, a software platform has been developed that integrates two modelling techniques: agent-based modelling (ABM) to capture the characteristics of the different system units accurately and dynamically, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the most economical mix of network extension and integration of distributed generation over long periods of time. Using data from Ergon Energy, two types of networks (3 phase, and Single Wired Earth Return or SWER) have been modelled; three-phase networks are usually used in dense networks such as urban areas, while SWER networks are widely used in rural Queensland. Simulations can be performed on these networks to identify the required upgrades, following a three-step process: a) what is already in place and how it performs under current and future loads, b) what can be done to manage it and plan the future grid and c) how these upgrades/new installations will perform over time. The number of small-scale distributed generators, e.g. PV and battery, is now sufficient (and expected to increase) to impact the operation of the grid, which in turn needs to be considered by the distribution network manager when planning for upgrades and/or installations to stay within regulatory limits. Different scenarios can be simulated, with different levels of distributed generation, in-place as well as expected, so that a large number of options can be assessed (Step a). Once the location, sizing and timing of assets upgrade and/or installation are found using optimisation techniques (Step b), it is possible to assess the adequacy of their daily performance using agent-based modelling (Step c). One distinguishing feature of this software is that it is possible to analyse a whole area at once, while still having a tailored solution for each of the sub-areas. To illustrate this, using the impact of battery and PV can have on the two types of networks mentioned above, three design conditions can be identified (amongst others): · Urban conditions o Feeders that have a low take-up of solar generators, may benefit from adding solar panels o Feeders that need voltage support at specific times, may be assisted by installing batteries · Rural conditions - SWER network o Feeders that need voltage support as well as peak lopping may benefit from both battery and solar panel installations. This small example demonstrates that no single solution can be applied across all three areas, and there is a need to be selective in which one is applied to each branch of the network. This is currently the function of the engineer who can define various scenarios against a configuration, test them and iterate towards an appropriate solution. Future work will focus on increasing the level of automation in identifying areas where particular solutions are applicable.

Effects of study precision and risk of bias in networks of interventions: a network meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.

Analysis of Transmission System Adequacy Considering the Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow

Power flow calculations are one of the most important tools for power system planning and operation. The need to account for uncertainties when performing power flow studies led, among others methods, to the development of the fuzzy power flow (FPF). This kind of models is especially interesting when a scarcity of information exists, which is a common situation in liberalized power systems (where generation and commercialization of electricity are market activities). In this framework, the symmetric/constrained fuzzy power flow (SFPF/CFPF) was proposed in order to avoid some of the problems of the original FPF model. The SFPF/CFPF models are suitable to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy “reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity” as defined, for instance, in the European Directive 2009/72/EC. In this work it is illustrated how the SFPF/CFPF may be used to evaluate the impact on the adequacy of a transmission system originated by specific investments on new network elements