Neotettonica della faglia Nord-Anatolica nel Mare di Marmara. Analisi di dati sismici a riflessione e morfobatimetrici ad alta risoluzione

Il 17 agosto 1999 un violento terremoto di Mw 7,4 (terremoto di Izmit) ha interessato l’area del Golfo di Izmit, dove il segmento settentrionale della Faglia Nord-Anatolica (FNA) entra nel Mare di Marmara. Oltre a causare enormi danni e un numero di vittime altissimo (oltre 20000), la dislocazione orizzontale di oltre 5 metri in prossimità dell’epicentro ha caricato tettonicamente il segmento della FNA verso Istanbul. Da qui, l’importanza di un modello geologico-strutturale condiviso dalla comunità scientifica per questo ramo della Faglia Nord Anatolica, per la formulazione dei modelli di stima del rischio sismico in una zona della Turchia molto densamente popolata (oltre 12 milioni di persone). I numerosi studi di geologia e geofisica marina condotti nel Golfo di Izmit e più in generale nel Mare di Marmara, hanno avuto un grosso impulso in concomitanza del terremoto del 1999 e negli anni successivi, quando il Mare di Marmara è stato inserito tra i siti di importanza strategica. Nonostante la grande mole di dati raccolti e le pubblicazioni di lavori importanti che hanno contribuito a portare nuova luce sulla geologia di questo territorio complesso, permangono ancora incertezze e controversie sui rapporti le tra la formazione del bacino di Marmara e la FNA. Questo lavoro di tesi ha lo scopo di esaminare la cinematica della FNA nell’area del Mare di Marmara, in generale, ed in particolare lungo i vari bacini allineati lungo il ramo settentrionale: da Est verso Ovest, il Bacino di Cinarcik, il Bacino di Kumburgaz, il Bacino Centrale ed il Bacino di Tekirdag. Analizzeremo la natura e il grado di attività dei segmenti individuati da zone di trasferimento (bending o overstep) e tenteremo di cartografare la geometria, lo stile strutturale e la lunghezza di ciascun segmento, per effettuare una stima del potenziale sismogenetico di ciascun ramo utilizzando relazioni empiriche.

Provenienza dei sedimenti arenitici nel bacino di Tracia (eo-oligocene, Turchia nord-occidentale e Grecia nord-orientale)

The Thrace Basin is the largest and thickest Tertiary sedimentary basin of the eastern Balkans region and constitutes an important hydrocarbon province. It is located between the Rhodope-Strandja Massif to the north and west, the Marmara Sea and Biga Peninsula to the south, and the Black Sea to the est. It consists of a complex system of depocenters and uplifts with very articulate paleotopography indicated by abrupt lateral facies variations. Its southeastern margin is widely deformed by the Ganos Fault, a segment of the North Anatolian strike-slip fault system . Most of the Thrace Basin fill ranges from the Eocene to the Late Oligocene. Maximum total thickness, including the Neogene-Quaternary succession, reaches 9.000 meters in a few narrow depocenters. This sedimentary succession consists mainly of basin plain turbiditic deposits with a significant volcaniclastic component which evolves upwards to shelf deposits and continental facies, with deltaic bodies prograding towards the basin center in the Oligocene. This work deals with the provenance of Eocene-Oligocene clastic sediments of the southern and western part of Thrace Basin in Turkey and Greece. Sandstone compositional data (78 gross composition analyses and 40 heavy minerals analyses) were used to understand the change in detrital modes which reflects the provenance and geodinamic evolution of the basin. Samples were collected at six localities, which are from west to est: Gökçeada, Gallipoli and South-Ganos (south of Ganos Fault), Alexandroupolis, Korudağ and North-Ganos (north of Ganos Fault). Petrologic (framework composition and heavy-mineral analyses) and stratigraphic-sedimentologic data, (analysis of sedimentologic facies associations along representative stratigraphic sections, paleocurrents) allowed discrimination of six petrofacies; for each petrofacies the sediment dispersal system was delineated. The Thrace Basin fill is made mainly of lithic arkoses and arkosic litharenites with variable amount of low-grade metamorphic lithics (also ophiolitic), neovolcanic lithics, and carbonate grains (mainly extrabasinal). Picotite is the most widespread heavy mineral in all petrofacies. Petrological data on analyzed successions show a complex sediment dispersal pattern and evolution of the basin, indicating one principal detrital input from a source area located to the south, along both the İzmir-Ankara and Intra-Pontide suture lines, and a possible secondary source area, represented by the Rhodope Massif to the west. A significant portion of the Thrace Basin sediments in the study area were derived from ophiolitic source rocks and from their oceanic cover, whereas epimetamorphic detrital components came from a low-grade crystalline basement. An important penecontemporaneous volcanic component is widespread in late Eocene-Oligocene times, indicating widespread post-collisional (collapse?) volcanism following the closure of the Vardar ocean. Large-scale sediment mass wasting from south to north along the southern margin of the Thrace Basin is indicated (i) in late Eocene time by large olistoliths of ophiolites and penecontemporaneous carbonates, and (ii) in the mid-Oligocene by large volcaniclastic olistoliths. The late Oligocene paleogeographic scenario was characterized by large deltaic bodies prograding northward (Osmancik Formation). This clearly indicates that the southern margin of the basin acted as a major sediment source area throughout its Eocene-Oligocene history. Another major sediment source area is represented by the Rhodope Massif, in particolar the Circum-Rhodopic belt, especially for plutonic and metamorphic rocks. Considering preexisting data on the petrologic composition of Thrace Basin, silicilastic sediments in Greece and Bulgaria (Caracciolo, 2009), a Rhodopian provenance could be considered mostly for areas of the Thrace Basin outside our study area, particularly in the northern-central portions of the basin. In summary, the most important source area for the sediment of Thrace Basin in the study area was represented by the exhumed subduction-accretion complex along the southern margin of the basin (Biga Peninsula and western-central Marmara Sea region). Most measured paleocurrent indicators show an eastward paleoflow but this is most likely the result of gravity flow deflection. This is possible considered a strong control due to the east-west-trending synsedimentary transcurrent faults which cuts the Thrace Basin, generating a series of depocenters and uplifts which deeply influenced sediment dispersal and the areal distribution of paleoenvironments. The Thrace Basin was long interpreted as a forearc basin between a magmatic arc to the north and a subduction-accretion complex to the south, developed in a context of northward subduction. This interpretation was challenged by more recent data emphasizing the lack of a coeval magmatic arc in the north and the interpretation of the chaotic deposit which outcrop south of Ganos Fault as olistoliths and large submarine slumps, derived from the erosion and sedimentary reworking of an older mélange unit located to the south (not as tectonic mélange formed in an accretionary prism). The present study corroborates instead the hypothesis of a post-collisional origin of the Thrace Basin, due to a phase of orogenic collapse, which generated a series of mid-Eocene depocenters all along the İzmir-Ankara suture (following closure of the Vardar-İzmir-Ankara ocean and the ensuing collision); then the slab roll-back of the remnant Pindos ocean played an important role in enhancing subsidence and creating additional accommodation space for sediment deposition.

Seismic Tomography and Earthquake Mechanism Beneath the Central Fennoscandian Shield

The aim of this thesis was to study the seismic tomography structure of the earth s crust together with earthquake distribution and mechanism beneath the central Fennoscandian Shield, mainly in southern and central Finland. The earthquake foci and some fault plane solutions are correlated with 3-D images of the velocity tomography. The results are discussed in relation to the stress field of the Shield and with other geophysical, e.g. geomagnetic, gravimetric, tectonic, and anisotropy studies of the Shield. The earthquake data of the Fennoscandian Shield has been extracted from the Nordic earthquake parameter data base which was founded at the time of inception of the earthquake catalogue for northern Europe. Eight earlier earthquake source mechanisms are included in a pilot study on creating a novel technique for calculating an earthquake fault plane solution. Altogether, eleven source mechanisms of shallow, weak earthquakes are related in the 3-D tomography model to trace stresses of the crust in southern and central Finland. The earthquakes in the eastern part of the Fennoscandian Shield represent low-active, intraplate seismicity. Earthquake mechanisms with NW-SE oriented horizontal compression confirm that the dominant stress field originates from the ridge-push force in the North Atlantic Ocean. Earthquakes accumulate in coastal areas, in intersections of tectonic lineaments, in main fault zones or are bordered by fault lines. The majority of Fennoscandian earthquakes concentrate on the south-western Shield in southern Norway and Sweden. Onwards, epicentres spread via the ridge of the Shield along the west-coast of the Gulf of Bothnia northwards along the Tornio River - Finnmark fault system to the Barents Sea, and branch out north-eastwards via the Kuusamo region to the White Sea Kola Peninsula faults. The local seismic tomographic method was applied to find the terrane distribution within the central parts of the Shield the Svecofennian Orogen. From 300 local explosions a total of 19765 crustal Pg- and Sg-wave arrival times were inverted to create independent 3-D Vp and Vs tomographic models, from which the Vp/Vs ratio was calculated. The 3-D structure of the crust is presented as a P-wave and for the first time as an S-wave velocity model, and also as a Vp/Vs-ratio model of the SVEKALAPKO area that covers 700x800 km2 in southern and central Finland. Also, some P-wave Moho-reflection data was interpolated to image the relief of the crust-mantle boundary (i.e. Moho). In the tomography model, the seismic velocities vary smoothly. The lateral variations are larger for Vp (dVp =0.7 km/s) than for Vs (dVs =0.4 km/s). The Vp/Vs ratio varies spatially more distinctly than P- and S-wave velocities, usually from 1.70 to 1.74 in the upper crust and from 1.72 to 1.78 in the lower crust. Schist belts and their continuations at depth are associated with lower velocities and lower Vp/Vs ratios than in the granitoid areas. The tomography modelling suggests that the Svecofennian Orogen was accreted from crustal blocks ranging in size from 100x100 km2 to 200x200 km2 in cross-sectional area. The intervening sedimentary belts have ca. 0.2 km/s lower P- and S-wave velocities and ca. 0.04 lower Vp/Vs ratios. Thus, the tomographic model supports the concept that the thick Svecofennian crust was accreted from several crustal terranes, some hidden, and that the crust was later modified by intra- and underplating. In conclusion, as a novel approach the earthquake focal mechanism and focal depth distribution is discussed in relation to the 3-D tomography model. The schist belts and the transformation zones between the high- and low-velocity anomaly blocks are characterized by deeper earthquakes than the granitoid areas where shallow events dominate. Although only a few focal mechanisms were solved for southern Finland, there is a trend towards strike-slip and oblique strike-slip movements inside schist areas. The normal dip-slip type earthquakes are typical in the seismically active Kuusamo district in the NE edge of the SVEKALAPKO area, where the Archean crust is ca. 15-20 km thinner than the Proterozoic Svecofennian crust. Two near vertical dip-slip mechanism earthquakes occurred in the NE-SW junction between the Central Finland Granitoid Complex and the Vyborg rapakivi batholith, where high Vp/Vs-ratio deep-set intrusion splits the southern Finland schist belt into two parts in the tomography model.

The June 2010 Nicobar Earthquake: Fault Reactivation on the Subducting Oceanic Plate

The similar to 1300-km-long rupture zone of the 2004 Andaman-Sumatra megathrust earthquake continues to generate a mix of thrust, normal, and strike-slip faulting events. The 12 June 2010 M(w) 7.5 event on the subducting plate is the most recent large earthquake on the Nicobar segment. The left-lateral faulting mechanism of this event is unusual for the outer-rise region, considering the stress transfer processes that follow great underthrusting earthquakes. Another earthquake (M(w) 7.2) with a similar mechanism occurred very close to this event on 24 July 2005. These earthquakes and most of their aftershocks on the subducting plate were generated by left-lateral strike-slip faulting on north-northeast-south-southwest oriented near-vertical faults, in response to north-northwest-south-southeast directed compression. Pre-2004 earthquake faulting mechanisms on the subducting oceanic plate are consistent with this pattern. Post-2004, left-lateral faulting on the subducting oceanic plate clusters between 5 degrees N and 9 degrees N, where the 90 degrees E ridge impinges the trench axis. Our study observes that the subducting plate off the Sumatra and Nicobar segments behaves similarly to a chip of the India-Australia plate, deforming in response to a generally northwest-southeast oriented compression, an aspect that must be factored into the plate deformation models.

Part I. A study of the velocity structure of the earth by the use of core phases. Part II. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake series focal mechanisms and tectonics

The initial objective of Part I was to determine the nature of upper mantle discontinuities, the average velocities through the mantle, and differences between mantle structure under continents and oceans by the use of P'dP', the seismic core phase P'P' (PKPPKP) that reflects at depth d in the mantle. In order to accomplish this, it was found necessary to also investigate core phases themselves and their inferences on core structure. P'dP' at both single stations and at the LASA array in Montana indicates that the following zones are candidates for discontinuities with varying degrees of confidence: 800-950 km, weak; 630-670 km, strongest; 500-600 km, strong but interpretation in doubt; 350-415 km, fair; 280-300 km, strong, varying in depth; 100-200 km, strong, varying in depth, may be the bottom of the low-velocity zone. It is estimated that a single station cannot easily discriminate between asymmetric P'P' and P'dP' for lead times of about 30 sec from the main P'P' phase, but the LASA array reduces this uncertainty range to less than 10 sec. The problems of scatter of P'P' main-phase times, mainly due to asymmetric P'P', incorrect identification of the branch, and lack of the proper velocity structure at the velocity point, are avoided and the analysis shows that one-way travel of P waves through oceanic mantle is delayed by 0.65 to 0.95 sec relative to United States mid-continental mantle.

A new P-wave velocity core model is constructed from observed times, dt/dΔ's, and relative amplitudes of P'; the observed times of SKS, SKKS, and PKiKP; and a new mantle-velocity determination by Jordan and Anderson. The new core model is smooth except for a discontinuity at the inner-core boundary determined to be at a radius of 1215 km. Short-period amplitude data do not require the inner core Q to be significantly lower than that of the outer core. Several lines of evidence show that most, if not all, of the arrivals preceding the DF branch of P' at distances shorter than 143° are due to scattering as proposed by Haddon and not due to spherically symmetric discontinuities just above the inner core as previously believed. Calculation of the travel-time distribution of scattered phases and comparison with published data show that the strongest scattering takes place at or near the core-mantle boundary close to the seismic station.

In Part II, the largest events in the San Fernando earthquake series, initiated by the main shock at 14 00 41.8 GMT on February 9, 1971, were chosen for analysis from the first three months of activity, 87 events in all. The initial rupture location coincides with the lower, northernmost edge of the main north-dipping thrust fault and the aftershock distribution. The best focal mechanism fit to the main shock P-wave first motions constrains the fault plane parameters to: strike, N 67° (± 6°) W; dip, 52° (± 3°) NE; rake, 72° (67°-95°) left lateral. Focal mechanisms of the aftershocks clearly outline a downstep of the western edge of the main thrust fault surface along a northeast-trending flexure. Faulting on this downstep is left-lateral strike-slip and dominates the strain release of the aftershock series, which indicates that the downstep limited the main event rupture on the west. The main thrust fault surface dips at about 35° to the northeast at shallow depths and probably steepens to 50° below a depth of 8 km. This steep dip at depth is a characteristic of other thrust faults in the Transverse Ranges and indicates the presence at depth of laterally-varying vertical forces that are probably due to buckling or overriding that causes some upward redirection of a dominant north-south horizontal compression. Two sets of events exhibit normal dip-slip motion with shallow hypocenters and correlate with areas of ground subsidence deduced from gravity data. Several lines of evidence indicate that a horizontal compressional stress in a north or north-northwest direction was added to the stresses in the aftershock area 12 days after the main shock. After this change, events were contained in bursts along the downstep and sequencing within the bursts provides evidence for an earthquake-triggering phenomenon that propagates with speeds of 5 to 15 km/day. Seismicity before the San Fernando series and the mapped structure of the area suggest that the downstep of the main fault surface is not a localized discontinuity but is part of a zone of weakness extending from Point Dume, near Malibu, to Palmdale on the San Andreas fault. This zone is interpreted as a decoupling boundary between crustal blocks that permits them to deform separately in the prevalent crustal-shortening mode of the Transverse Ranges region.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Intraplate earthquake swarm in Belo Jardim, NE Brazil: reactivation of a major Neoproterozoic shear zone (Pernambuco Lineament)

Intraplate earthquakes in stable continental areas have been explained basically by reactivation of pre-existing zones of weakness, stress concentration, or both. Zones of weakness are usually identified as sites of the last major orogeny, provinces of recent alkaline intrusions, or stretched crust in ancient rifts. However, it is difficult to identify specific zones of weakness and intraplate fault zones are not always easily correlated with known geological features. Although Northeastern Brazil is one of the most seismically active areas in the country (magnitudes 5 roughly every 5 yr), with hypocentral depths shallower than similar to 10 km and seismic zones as long as 30-40 km, no clear relationship with the known surface geology can be usually established with confidence, and a clear identification of zones of weakness has not yet been possible. Here we present the first clear case of seismic activity occurring as reactivation of an old structure in Brazil: the Pernambuco Lineament, a major Neoproterozoic shear zone. The 2004 earthquake swarm of Belo Jardim (magnitudes up to 3.1) and the recurrent activities in the nearby towns of Sao Caetano and Caruaru (magnitudes up to 4.0 and 3.8), show that the Pernambuco Lineament is a weak zone. A local seismic network showed that the Belo Jardim swarm of 2004 November occurred by normal faulting on a North dipping, E-W oriented fault plane in close agreement with the E-W trending structures within the Pernambuco Lineament. The Belo Jardim activity was concentrated in a 1.5 km (E-W) by 2 km (downdip) fault area, and average depth of 4.5 km. The nearby Caruaru activity occurs as both strike-slip and normal faulting, also consistent with local structures of the Pernambuco Lineament. The focal mechanisms of Belo Jardim, Caruaru and S. Caetano, indicate E-W compressional and N-S extensional principal stresses. The NS extension of this stress field is larger than that predicted by numerical models such as those of Coblentz & Richardson and we propose that additional factors such as flexural stresses from the nearby Sergipe-Alagoas marginal basin could also affect the current stress field in the Pernambuco Lineament.

InSAR deformation measurements of the earthquake cycle in transcurrent tectonic domains, analytical and analog modeling

I applied the SBAS-DInSAR method to the Mattinata Fault (MF) (Southern Italy) and to the Doruneh Fault System (DFS) (Central Iran). In the first case, I observed limited internal deformation and determined the right lateral kinematic pattern with a compressional pattern in the northern sector of the fault. Using the Okada model I inverted the observed velocities defining a right lateral strike slip solution for the MF. Even if it fits the data within the uncertainties, the modeled slip rate of 13-15 mm yr-1 seems too high with respect to the geological record. Concerning the Western termination of DFS, SAR data confirms the main left lateral transcurrent kinematics of this fault segment, but reveal a compressional component. My analytical model fits successfully the observed data and quantifies the slip in ~4 mm yr-1 and ~2.5 mm yr-1 of pure horizontal and vertical displacement respectively. The horizontal velocity is compatible with geological record. I applied classic SAR interferometry to the October–December 2008 Balochistan (Central Pakistan) seismic swarm; I discerned the different contributions of the three Mw > 5.7 earthquakes determining fault positions, lengths, widths, depths and slip distributions, constraining the other source parameters using different Global CMT solutions. A well constrained solution has been obtained for the 09/12/2008 aftershock, whereas I tested two possible fault solutions for the 28-29/10/08 mainshocks. It is not possible to favor one of the solutions without independent constraints derived from geological data. Finally I approached the study of the earthquake-cycle in transcurrent tectonic domains using analog modeling, with alimentary gelatins like crust analog material. I successfully joined the study of finite deformation with the earthquake cycle study and sudden dislocation. A lot of seismic cycles were reproduced in which a characteristic earthquake is recognizable in terms of displacement, coseismic velocity and recurrence time.

EVALUATION OF THE EVOLVING STRESS FIELD OF THE YELLOWSTONE VOLCANIC PLATEAU FROM 1988 TO 2010 FROM EARTHQUAKE FIRST MOTIONS INVERSION

Within the Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, the silicic Yellowstone volcanic field is one of the most active volcanic systems all over the world. Although the last rhyolite eruption occurred around 70,000 years ago, Yellowstone is still believed to be volcanically active, due to high hydrothermal and seismic activity. The earthquake data used in this study cover the period of time between 1988 and 2010. Earthquake relocations and a set of 369 well-constrained, double-couple, focal mechanism solutions were computed. Events were grouped according to location and time to investigate trends in faulting. The majority of the events has oblique, normal-faulting solutions. The overall direction of extension throughout the 0.64 Ma Yellowstone caldera looks nearly ENE, consistently with the direction of alignments of volcanic vents within the caldera, but detailed study revealed spatial and temporal variations. Stress-field solutions for different areas and time periods were calculated from earthquake focal mechanism inversion. A well-resolved rotation of σ3 was found, from NNE-SSW near the Hebgen Lake fault zone, to ENE-WSW near Norris Junction. In particular, the σ3 direction changed throughout the years in the Norris Junction area, from being ENE-WSW, as calculated in the study by Waite and Smith (2004), to NNE-SSW, while the other σ3 directions are mostly unchanged over time. The Yellowstone caldera was subject to periods of net uplift and subsidence over the past century, explained in previous studies as caused by expanding or contracting sills, at different depths. Based on the models used to explain these deformation periods, we investigated the relationship between variability in aseismic deformation and seismic activity and faulting styles. Focal mechanisms and P and T axes were divided into temporal and depth intervals, in order to identify spatial or temporal trends in deformation. The presence of “chocolate tablet” structures, with composite dilational faults, was identified in many stages of the deformation history both in the Norris Geyser Basin area and inside the caldera. Strike-slip component movement was found in a depth interval below a contracting sill, indicating the movement of magma towards the caldera.

Slip complexity in earthquake fault models.

We summarize studies of earthquake fault models that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural earthquakes. For models of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. Models of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic modeling of earthquake sequences. In contrast, some models of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the model becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. Models based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such models show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Compaction control of topography and fault network structure along strike-slip faults in sedimentary basins

Strike-slip faults commonly display structurally complex areas of positive or negative topography. Understanding the development of such areas has important implications for earthquake studies and hydrocarbon exploration. Previous workers identified the key factors controlling the occurrence of both topographic modes and the related structural styles. Kinematic and stress boundary conditions are of first-order relevance. Surface mass transport and material properties affect fault network structure. Experiments demonstrate that dilatancy can generate positive topography even under simple-shear boundary conditions. Here, we use physical models with sand to show that the degree of compaction of the deformed rocks alone can determine the type of topography and related surface fault network structure in simple-shear settings. In our experiments, volume changes of ∼5% are sufficient to generate localized uplift or subsidence. We discuss scalability of model volume changes and fault network structure and show that our model fault zones satisfy geometrical similarity with natural flower structures. Our results imply that compaction may be an important factor in the development of topography and fault network structure along strike-slip faults in sedimentary basins.

The April 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes: Seismotectonic context and implications for their mechanisms

The 11 April 2012 earthquakes (M-w 8.6 and M-w 8.2) were sourced within the Northern Wharton Basin in the northeastern part of the Indo-Australian diffuse plate boundary. This unusually active oceanic intraplate region has generated many large earthquakes in the past, most of which are believed to have occurred by strike-slip motion, triggered by the NW-SE oriented compressional stresses acting across the Indian and Australian plates. In the aftermath of the 2004 megathrust earthquake along the nearby Sunda Trench, increased seismicity in the Northern Wharton Basin is attributed to the stress transfer from the Sumatra-Andaman plate boundary. Models proposed for the April 2012 earthquakes differ somewhat in details but partly attribute their complex rupture to the reactivation of pre-existing structures. These structures include previously mapped N-S trending fracture zones within the Northern Wharton Basin and E-W lineations across the Ninetyeast Ridge. In this paper, we review the regional tectonics and past seismicity on the Indo-Australian Plate in order to understand the seismotectonic setting of the April 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Attenuation tomography. Modelling regional love waves: Imperial Valley to Pasadena

Abstract to Part I

The inverse problem of seismic wave attenuation is solved by an iterative back-projection method. The seismic wave quality factor, Q, can be estimated approximately by inverting the S-to-P amplitude ratios. Effects of various uncertain ties in the method are tested and the attenuation tomography is shown to be useful in solving for the spatial variations in attenuation structure and in estimating the effective seismic quality factor of attenuating anomalies.

Back-projection attenuation tomography is applied to two cases in southern California: Imperial Valley and the Coso-Indian Wells region. In the Coso-Indian Wells region, a highly attenuating body (S-wave quality factor (Q_β ≈ 30) coincides with a slow P-wave anomaly mapped by Walck and Clayton (1987). This coincidence suggests the presence of a magmatic or hydrothermal body 3 to 5 km deep in the Indian Wells region. In the Imperial Valley, slow P-wave travel-time anomalies and highly attenuating S-wave anomalies were found in the Brawley seismic zone at a depth of 8 to 12 km. The effective S-wave quality factor is very low (Q_β ≈ 20) and the P-wave velocity is 10% slower than the surrounding areas. These results suggest either magmatic or hydrothermal intrusions, or fractures at depth, possibly related to active shear in the Brawley seismic zone.

No-block inversion is a generalized tomographic method utilizing the continuous form of an inverse problem. The inverse problem of attenuation can be posed in a continuous form , and the no-block inversion technique is applied to the same data set used in the back-projection tomography. A relatively small data set with little redundancy enables us to apply both techniques to a similar degree of resolution. The results obtained by the two methods are very similar. By applying the two methods to the same data set, formal errors and resolution can be directly computed for the final model, and the objectivity of the final result can be enhanced.

Both methods of attenuation tomography are applied to a data set of local earthquakes in Kilauea, Hawaii, to solve for the attenuation structure under Kilauea and the East Rift Zone. The shallow Kilauea magma chamber, East Rift Zone and the Mauna Loa magma chamber are delineated as attenuating anomalies. Detailed inversion reveals shallow secondary magma reservoirs at Mauna Ulu and Puu Oo, the present sites of volcanic eruptions. The Hilina Fault zone is highly attenuating, dominating the attenuating anomalies at shallow depths. The magma conduit system along the summit and the East Rift Zone of Kilauea shows up as a continuous supply channel extending down to a depth of approximately 6 km. The Southwest Rift Zone, on the other hand, is not delineated by attenuating anomalies, except at a depth of 8-12 km, where an attenuating anomaly is imaged west of Puu Kou. The Ylauna Loa chamber is seated at a deeper level (about 6-10 km) than the Kilauea magma chamber. Resolution in the Mauna Loa area is not as good as in the Kilauea area, and there is a trade-off between the depth extent of the magma chamber imaged under Mauna Loa and the error that is due to poor ray coverage. Kilauea magma chamber, on the other hand, is well resolved, according to a resolution test done at the location of the magma chamber.

Abstract to Part II

Long period seismograms recorded at Pasadena of earthquakes occurring along a profile to Imperial Valley are studied in terms of source phenomena (e.g., source mechanisms and depths) versus path effects. Some of the events have known source parameters, determined by teleseismic or near-field studies, and are used as master events in a forward modeling exercise to derive the Green's functions (SH displacements at Pasadena that are due to a pure strike-slip or dip-slip mechanism) that describe the propagation effects along the profile. Both timing and waveforms of records are matched by synthetics calculated from 2-dimensional velocity models. The best 2-dimensional section begins at Imperial Valley with a thin crust containing the basin structure and thickens towards Pasadena. The detailed nature of the transition zone at the base of the crust controls the early arriving shorter periods (strong motions), while the edge of the basin controls the scattered longer period surface waves. From the waveform characteristics alone, shallow events in the basin are easily distinguished from deep events, and the amount of strike-slip versus dip-slip motion is also easily determined. Those events rupturing the sediments, such as the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake, can be recognized easily by a late-arriving scattered Love wave that has been delayed by the very slow path across the shallow valley structure.

Complexity of rupture propagation in large earthquakes in relation to tectonic environment

Complexity in the earthquake rupture process can result from many factors. This study investigates the origin of such complexity by examining several recent, large earthquakes in detail. In each case the local tectonic environment plays an important role in understanding the source of the complexity.

Several large shallow earthquakes (M_s > 7.0) along the Middle American Trench have similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes. They are predominantly thrust events consistent with the known subduction of the Cocos plate beneath N. America. Two events occurring along this subduction zone close to triple junctions show considerable complexity. This may be attributable to a more heterogeneous stress environment in these regions and as such has implications for other subduction zone boundaries.

An event which looks complex but is actually rather simple is the 1978 Bermuda earthquake (M_s ~ 6). It is located predominantly in the mantle. Its mechanism is one of pure thrust faulting with a strike N 20°W and dip 42°NE. Its apparent complexity is caused by local crustal structure. This is an important event in terms of understanding and estimating seismic hazard on the eastern seaboard of N. America.

A study of several large strike-slip continental earthquakes identifies characteristics which are common to them and may be useful in determining what to expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The events are the 1976 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault and two events on the Anatolian fault in Turkey (the 1967, Mudurnu Valley and 1976, E. Turkey events). An attempt to model the complex P-waveforms of these events results in good synthetic fits for the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. However, the E. Turkey event proves to be too complex as it may have associated thrust or normal faulting. Several individual sources occurring at intervals of between 5 and 20 seconds characterize the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. The maximum size of an individual source appears to be bounded at about 5 x 10²⁶ dyne-cm. A detailed source study including directivity is performed on the Guatemala event. The source time history of the Mudurnu Valley event illustrates its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source time series of the 1967 event produces amplitudes greater by a factor of 2.5 than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault.

Three large and important earthquakes demonstrate an important type of complexity --- multiple-fault complexity. The first, the 1976 Philippine earthquake, an oblique thrust event, represents the first seismological evidence for a northeast dipping subduction zone beneath the island of Mindanao. A large event, following the mainshock by 12 hours, occurred outside the aftershock area and apparently resulted from motion on a subsidiary fault since the event had a strike-slip mechanism.

An aftershock of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake on June 6, 1960, proved to be an interesting discovery. It appears to be a large strike-slip event at the main rupture's southern boundary. It most likely occurred on the landward extension of the Chile Rise transform fault, in the subducting plate. The results for this event suggest that a small event triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 hour. This is indeed a "slow earthquake".

Perhaps one of the most complex of events is the recent Tangshan, China event. It began as a large strike-slip event. Within several seconds of the mainshock it may have triggered thrust faulting to the south of the epicenter. There is no doubt, however, that it triggered a large oblique normal event to the northeast, 15 hours after the mainshock. This event certainly contributed to the great loss of life-sustained as a result of the Tangshan earthquake sequence.

What has been learned from these studies has been applied to predict what one might expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas. The expectation from this study is that such an event would be a large complex event, not unlike, but perhaps larger than, the Guatemala or Mudurnu Valley events. That is to say, it will most likely consist of a series of individual events in sequence. It is also quite possible that the event could trigger associated faulting on neighboring fault systems such as those occurring in the Transverse Ranges. This has important bearing on the earthquake hazard estimation for the region.