Eficácia de gestão de unidades de conservação gerenciadas pelo Instituto Florestal de São Paulo, Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Subjective and Objective Indicators of Recovery in Severe Mental Illness: a Cross-Sectional Study

Background: This study aimed to determine whether subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment are associated with self-report of more objective indicators such as level of participation in the community and income from employment. A secondary aim was to investigate the extent to which diagnosis or other consumer characteristics mediated any relationship between these variables. Methods: The Community Integration Measure, the Empowerment Scale, the Recovery Assessment Scale, and the Camberwell Assessment of Needs Short Appraisal Schedule were administered to a convenience sample of 161 consumers with severe mental illness. Results: The majority of participants had a primary diagnosis of schizophreniform, anxiety/depression or bipolar affective disorder. The Empowerment Scale was quite strongly correlated with the Recovery Assessment Scale and the Community Integration Measure. Participants with a diagnosis of bipolar affective disorder had signifi cantly higher recovery and empowerment scores than participants with schizophrenia or depression. Both empowerment and recovery scores were significantly higher for people engaged in paid employment than for those receiving social security benefits. Conclusions: The measurement of subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment has validity in evaluation of global recovery for people with severe mental illness. A diagnosis of bipolar disorder is associated with higher scores on subjective and objective indicators of recovery.

Survival tucker : improved diet and health indicators in an Aboriginal community

The poor nutritional status of Aboriginal Australians is a serious and complex public health concern. We describe an unusually successful health and nutrition project initiated by the people of Minjilang, which was developed, implemented and evaluated with the community. Apparent community dietary intake, assessed by the ‘store-turnover’ method, and biochemical, anthropometric and haematological indicators of health and nutritional status were measured before intervention and at three-monthly intervals during the intervention year. Following intervention, there was a significant decrease in dietary intake of sugar and saturated fat, an increase in micronutrient density, corresponding improvements in biochemical indices (for example, a 12 per cent decrease in mean serum cholesterol, increases in serum and red cell folate, serum vitamin B6 and plasma ascorbic acid), decrease in mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures, a normalisation of body mass index, and a normalisation of haematologic indices. The success of this project demonstrates that Aboriginal communities can bring about improvements in their generally poor nutritional status, and that the store-turnover method provides a valid, inexpensive and noninvasive method for evaluating the resultant changes in community diet. Although the project was undoubtedly effective in the short term, further work is in progress to assess individual strategies with respect to sustainability, cost-effectiveness and generalisability.

Study Protocol - Alcohol Management Plans (AMPs) in remote indigenous communities in Queensland: their impacts on injury, violence, health and social indicators and their cost-effectiveness

Background In 2002/03 the Queensland Government responded to high rates of alcohol-related harm in discrete Indigenous communities by implementing alcohol management plans (AMPs), designed to include supply and harm reduction and treatment measures. Tighter alcohol supply and carriage restrictions followed in 2008 following indications of reductions in violence and injury. Despite the plans being in place for over a decade, no comprehensive independent review has assessed to what level the designed aims were achieved and what effect the plans have had on Indigenous community residents and service providers. This study will describe the long-term impacts on important health, economic and social outcomes of Queensland’s AMPs. Methods/Design The project has two main studies, 1) outcome evaluation using de-identified epidemiological data on injury, violence and other health and social indicators for across Queensland, including de-identified databases compiled from relevant routinely-available administrative data sets, and 2) a process evaluation to map the nature, timing and content of intervention components targeting alcohol. Process evaluation will also be used to assess the fidelity with which the designed intervention components have been implemented, their uptake and community responses to them and their perceived impacts on alcohol supply and consumption, injury, violence and community health. Interviews and focus groups with Indigenous residents and service providers will be used. The study will be conducted in all 24 of Queensland’s Indigenous communities affected by alcohol management plans. Discussion This evaluation will report on the impacts of the original aims for AMPs, what impact they have had on Indigenous residents and service providers. A central outcome will be the establishment of relevant databases describing the parameters of the changes seen. This will permit comprehensive and rigorous surveillance systems to be put in place and provided to communities empowering them with the best credible evidence to judge future policy and program requirements for themselves. The project will inform impending alcohol policy and program adjustments in Queensland and other Australian jurisdictions. The project has been approved by the James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number H4967 & H5241).

Trends in aerosol optical depth over Indian region: Potential causes and impact indicators

The first regional synthesis of long-term (back to similar to 25 years at some stations) primary data (from direct measurement) on aerosol optical depth from the ARFINET (network of aerosol observatories established under the Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) project of Indian Space Research Organization over Indian subcontinent) have revealed a statistically significant increasing trend with a significant seasonal variability. Examining the current values of turbidity coefficients with those reported similar to 50 years ago reveals the phenomenal nature of the increase in aerosol loading. Seasonally, the rate of increase is consistently high during the dry months (December to March) over the entire region whereas the trends are rather inconsistent and weak during the premonsoon (April to May) and summer monsoon period (June to September). The trends in the spectral variation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) reveal the significance of anthropogenic activities on the increasing trend in AOD. Examining these with climate variables such as seasonal and regional rainfall, it is seen that the dry season depicts a decreasing trend in the total number of rainy days over the Indian region. The insignificant trend in AOD observed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, a regional hot spot of aerosols, during the premonsoon and summer monsoon season is mainly attributed to the competing effects of dust transport and wet removal of aerosols by the monsoon rain. Contributions of different aerosol chemical species to the total dust, simulated using Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model over the ARFINET stations, showed an increasing trend for all the anthropogenic components and a decreasing trend for dust, consistent with the inference deduced from trend in Angstrom exponent.

Monitoring urbanization and its implications in a mega city from space: Spatiotemporal patterns and its indicators

Rapid and invasive urbanization has been associated with depletion of natural resources (vegetation and water resources), which in turn deteriorates the landscape structure and conditions in the local environment. Rapid increase in population due to the migration from rural areas is one of the critical issues of the urban growth. Urbanisation in India is drastically changing the land cover and often resulting in the sprawl. The sprawl regions often lack basic amenities such as treated water supply, sanitation, etc. This necessitates regular monitoring and understanding of the rate of urban development in order to ensure the sustenance of natural resources. Urban sprawl is the extent of urbanization which leads to the development of urban forms with the destruction of ecology and natural landforms. The rate of change of land use and extent of urban sprawl can be efficiently visualized and modelled with the help of geo-informatics. The knowledge of urban area, especially the growth magnitude, shape geometry, and spatial pattern is essential to understand the growth and characteristics of urbanization process. Urban pattern, shape and growth can be quantified using spatial metrics. This communication quantifies the urbanisation and associated growth pattern in Delhi. Spatial data of four decades were analysed to understand land over and land use dynamics. Further the region was divided into 4 zones and into circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand and quantify the local spatial changes. Results of the landscape metrics indicate that the urban center was highly aggregated and the outskirts and the buffer regions were in the verge of aggregating urban patches. Shannon's Entropy index clearly depicted the outgrowth of sprawl areas in different zones of Delhi. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quality of care for cancer patients on home parenteral nutrition: Development of key interventions and outcome indicators using a two-round Delphi approach

Purpose: Clear recommendations on how to guide patients with cancer on home parenteral nutrition (HPN) are lacking as the use of HPN in this population remains a controversial issue. Therefore, the aims of this study were to rank treatment recommendations and main outcome indicators to ensure high-quality care and to indicate differences in care concerning benign versus malignant patients. Methods: Treatment recommendations, identified from published guidelines, were used as a starting point for a two-round Delphi approach. Comments and additional interventions proposed in the first round were reevaluated in the second round. Ordinal logistic regression with SPSS 2.0 was used to identify differences in care concerning benign versus malignant patients. Results: Twenty-seven experts from five European countries completed two Delphi rounds. After the second Delphi round, the top three most important outcome indicators were (1) quality of life (QoL), (2) incidence of hospital readmission and (3) incidence of catheter-related infections. Forty-two interventions were considered as important for quality of care (28/42 based on published guidelines; 14/42 newly suggested by Delphi panel). The topics 'Liver disease' and 'Metabolic bone disease' were considered less important for cancer patients, together with use of infusion pumps (p = 0.004) and monitoring of vitamins and trace elements (p = 0.000). Monitoring of QoL is considered more important for cancer patients (p = 0.03). Conclusion: Using a two-round Delphi approach, we developed a minimal set of 42 interventions that may be used to determine quality of care in HPN patients with malignancies. This set of interventions differs from a similar set developed for benign patients. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Generational and cultural indicators of technology and innovation in family business

The internet revolution has affected everybody in some way. Technologies used in business range from telephones to industry-specific machinery. Mostly though, business technology has come to mean the internet. In literature concerning innovation and the adoption of technology in business, research invariably centres on small to medium businesses (SI'v1Es), as these can be defined reasonably easily. Statistics on family businesses are limited, however, because family businesses are so difficult to categorize and define.

The Australian Family Business Survey of 1993 (Institute of Chartered Accountants) determined that family business is the largest form of business ownership in Australia and represents 83% of all business enterprises, although Basu (2004) believes that over two thirds of all world-wide businesses are owned or managed by families and around half of all businesses in Australia are family businesses. The Australian Institute of Management (AIM) (2004) states that the wealth of family and private businesses is estimated at $3.6 trillion and that family firms generate 50 per cent of Australia's employment growth, account for 40 per cent of Australia's private sector output, and are a seed bed for innovation and the information of large companies.

The difficulty in defining a family business is heightened because family businesses can take many forms ranging from sole traders to private companies to public companies. Hence, when talking about family business, you could be referring to the sole trader dealing with organic produce to an IT organisation employing hundreds of staff. Basu (2004) thinks that while ordinarily, in non-family businesses, the business and family domains remain separate, the key distinctive characteristic of family businesses is that family members work together for economic purposes. In other words, the family is not merely a social unit but also an economic unit. Craig and Lindsay (2002) believe that family involvement in the business is what makes the family business different... researchers, however, cannot seem to agree as to what constitutes 'family involvement' in a business so that it can be defined as a family business and that family business is ... a business that is governed and/or managed with the intention to shape and pursue the vision of the business held by a dominant coalition that is controlled by members of the same family or a small number of families in a manner that is potentially sustainable across generations of the family or families.