The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment

This paper studies the proposition that an inflation bias can arise in a setup where a central banker with asymmetric preferences targets the natural unemployment rate. Preferences are asymmetric in the sense that positive unemployment deviations from the natural rate are weighted more (or less) severely than negative deviations in the central banker's loss function. The bias is proportional to the conditional variance of unemployment. The time-series predictions of the model are evaluated using data from G7 countries. Econometric estimates support the prediction that the conditional variance of unemployment and the rate of inflation are positively related.

Towards a measure of income inequality freed from the volatility caused by variations in the rate of unemployment

By mixing together inequalities based on cyclical variables, such as unemployment, and on structural variables, such as education, usual measurements of income inequality add objects of a di§erent economic nature. Since jobs are not acquired or lost as fast as education or skills, this aggreagation leads to a loss of relavant economic information. Here I propose a di§erent procedure for the calculation of inequality. The procedure uses economic theory to construct an inequality measure of a long-run character, the calculation of which can be performed, though, with just one set of cross-sectional observations. Technically, the procedure is based on the uniqueness of the invariant distribution of wage o§ers in a job-search model. Workers should be pre-grouped by the distribution of wage o§ers they see, and only between-group inequalities should be considered. This construction incorporates the fact that the average wages of all workers in the same group tend to be equalized by the continuous turnover in the job market.

Phillips-en kurba eta langabezi tasa naturala

[EU] Phillips-kurba-k langabezi eta inflazioaren arteko erlazio negatiboa erakusten du. Erlazio hau 1958. urtean aurkeztu zen lehen aldiz eta geroztik hainbat aldaketa, kritika eta eztabaida jasan ditu. Hala ere, honek ez du saihestu hainbat herrialdek politika ekonomiko desberdinak aurrera eraman izana erlazio honetan oinarrituta. Lan honetan Phillips-ek aipaturiko erlazioak jasandako aldaketa desberdinak azalduko ditugu, haren oinarriak eta eraldaketak aztertuz. Espainia eta Euskadiko Phillips kurben egoerak aztertuko ditugu eta Phillips-ek proposaturiko erlazioa betetzen den ala ez konprobatuko dugu.

Salarios de eficiencia en un modelo de crecimiento económico

En este artÌculo se introducen los salarios de eÖciencia como microfundamento para explicar la existencia de desempleo involuntario permanente y la rigidez de los salarios a la baja. Los salarios de eÖciencia se incorporan en un modelo de crecimiento econÛmico de generaciones traslapadas, en el cual se puede alcanzar un equilibrio de largo plazo en el que existe desempleo involuntario permanente, explicado por la rigidez de los salarios.

Munkapiac keresési súrlódásokkal (Job seeking on the labour market, with frictions)

A munkapiac különleges piac, jellegzetességeinek köszönhetően számos modell elemzi. Ezek közül a legismertebbek a keresési-párosítási modellek, amelyek több egymáshoz kapcsolódó kérdéskör vizsgálatára is alkalmasak. A modellcsalád által megmagyarázható munkapiaci jelenségek széles köre, a belőlük levonható következtetések, a modellek magyarázóképességéről folytatott vita egyaránt hozzájárult, hogy a modellek kidolgozói 2010-ben közgazdasági Nobel-emlékdíjban részesültek. Modelljük kiterjeszti a munkanélküliség természetes rátájának elméletét, képes a jóléti intézkedések és intézményrendszer beépítésére. A szerző e modellek elméleti előzményei, valamint egy alapmodell ismertetése után felvázolja az újabb generációs modellek alapvonásait, a hatékonyságelemzések tanulságait, az állami intézkedések vizsgálatának lehetőségeit, valamint a Shimer-kritika alapjait. / === / The labor market is a specialized market with characteristics that have produced several different models for analysing it. One of the best known is the search and matching model, which is suitable for analysis of several related issues. The broad range of labour market phenomena that can be described by this family of models, the conclusions to be drawn from them, and the debate on their explanatory capability have all contributed to the fact that three economists who made important contributions to developing them - P. A. Diamond, D. T. Mortensen and C. A. Pissar-ides - were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2010. The DMP model named after them expands the theory of the natural rate of unemployment and is capable of integrating the analysis of welfare measures and institutions. This paper follows up on the contribution of the Nobel Prize winners by examining the theoretical preliminaries of these models, a basic search and matching model, and by looking at the typical characteristics of a new generation of models, the lessons of efficiency analyses, the possibility of investigating the role of policy measures, and the foundations of Shimer's critique.

Estimation of the natural purification rate of a eutrophic lake after pollutant removal

Pollution resulting from increased human activities is threatening Lake Donghu, its effects being characterized by serious eutrophication. A steady increase of phosphorus loading is the most important factor of the lake eutrophication. Pollution external control projects are being implemented and will be accomplished before the year 2010. In order to predict the restoration rate by the lake's self-purification after the projects of external control, a model of predicting the removal rate of total phosphorus (TP) from lake water is developed, and a brief method of estimating the release and export rate of sediment phosphorus is suggested. Results show that, on the premise of external loading fully controlled. The restoration needs about 55 years or more. Obviously, the great P pool in the sediment will be a limiting factor of preventing the improvement of water quality after the external loading is under control. Based on the estimation we conclude that after the external control projects before 2010, in order to restore the lake in a few years, although highly cost, the first step must be the sediment dredging to remove internal loading. The second step is diverting water of River Changjiang into the lake to accelerate the improvement of lake water. Otherwise, removal of pollutant sources will become meaningless. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Internal genetic structure and outcrossing rate in a natural population of Araucaria angustifolia (Bert.) O. Kuntze

The internal genetic structure and outcrossing rate of a population of Araucaria angustifolia (Bert.) O. Kuntze were investigated using 16 allozyme loci. Estimates of the mean number of alleles per loci (1.6), percentage of polymorphic loci (43.8%), and expected genetic diversity (0.170) were similar to those obtained for other gymnosperms. The analysis of spatial autocorrelation demonstrated the presence of internal structure in the first distance classes (up to 70 m), suggesting the presence of family structure. The outcrossing rate was high (0.956), as expected for a dioecious species. However, it was different from unity, indicating outcrossings between related individuals and corroborating the presence of internal genetic structure. The results of this study have implications for the methodologies used in conservation collections and for the use or analysis of this forest species. © The American Genetic Association. 2006. All rights reserved.

Selfing rate estimation in sugarcane under unfavorable natural conditions of crossing by using microsatellite markers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Inferences of body energy reserves on conception rate of suckled Zebu beef cows subjected to timed artificial insemination followed by natural mating

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Natural Hedging of Exchange Rate Risk: The Role of Imported Input Prices

In this paper, we estimate ERPT into imported input prices and export prices using disaggregated quarterly trade data for Switzerland over 2004–2011. We find evidence for high pass-through rates into imported input prices. This demonstrates the effectiveness of natural hedging. On the export side, ERPT exhibits substantial sectoral heterogeneity and changes in imported input costs are not transmitted to foreign consumers in most cases. This suggests the use of cheaper imported inputs to offset adverse effects of currency appreciation on export profit margins.

Natural history of corneal nerve morphology in mild neuropathy associated with type 1 diabetes : Development of a potential measure of diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Purpose To investigate longitudinal changes of subbasal nerve plexus (SNP) morphology and its relationship with conventional measures of neuropathy in individuals with diabetes. Methods A cohort of 147 individuals with type 1 diabetes and 60 age-balanced controls underwent detailed assessment of clinical and metabolic factors, neurologic deficits, quantitative sensory testing, nerve conduction studies and corneal confocal microscopy at baseline and four subsequent annual visits. The SNP parameters included corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD), branch density (CNBD) and fiber length (CNFL) and were quantified using a fully-automated algorithm. Linear mixed models were fitted to examine the changes in corneal nerve parameters over time. Results At baseline, 27% of the participants had mild diabetic neuropathy. All SNP parameters were significantly lower in the neuropathy group compared to controls (P<0.05). Overall, 89% of participants examined at baseline also completed the final visit. There was no clinically significant change to health and metabolic parameters and neuropathy measures from baseline to the final visit. Linear mixed model revealed a significant linear decline of CNFD (annual change rate, -0.9 nerve/mm2, P=0.01) in the neuropathy group compared to controls, which was associated with age (β=-0.06, P=0.04) and duration of diabetes (β=-0.08, P=0.03). In the neuropathy group, absolute changes of CNBD and CNFL showed moderate correlations with peroneal conduction velocity and cold sensation threshold, respectively (rs, 0.38 and 0.40, P<0.05). Conclusion This study demonstrates dynamic small fiber damage at the SNP, thus providing justification for our ongoing efforts to establish corneal nerve morphology as an appropriate adjunct to conventional measures of DPN.

Size-dependent natural mortality of juvenile banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Natural mortality of marine invertebrates is often very high in the early life history stages and decreases in later stages. The possible size-dependent mortality of juvenile banana prawns, P. merguiensis (2-15 mm carapace length) in the Gulf of Carpentaria was investigated. The analysis was based on the data collected at 2-weekly intervals by beam trawls at four sites over a period of six years (between September 1986 and March 1992). It was assumed that mortality was a parametric function of size, rather than a constant. Another complication in estimating mortality for juvenile banana prawns is that a significant proportion of the population emigrates from the study area each year. This effect was accounted for by incorporating the size-frequency pattern of the emigrants in the analysis. Both the extra parameter in the model required to describe the size dependence of mortality, and that used to account for emigration were found to be significantly different from zero, and the instantaneous mortality rate declined from 0.89 week(-1) for 2 mm prawns to 0.02 week(-1) for 15 mm prawns.