Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Analysis of Temperature and Pressure Changes in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Cryogenic Tanks

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is being developed as a transportation fuel for heavy vehicles such as trucks and transit buses, to lessen the dependency on oil and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The LNG stations are properly designed to prevent the venting of natural gas (NG) from LNG tanks, which can cause evaporative greenhouse gas emissions and result in fluctuations of fuel flow and changes of fuel composition. Boil-off is caused by the heat added into the LNG fuel during the storage and fueling. Heat can leak into the LNG fuel through the shell of tank during the storage and through hoses and dispensers during the fueling. Gas from tanks onboard vehicles, when returned to LNG tanks, can add additional heat into the LNG fuel. A thermodynamic and heat transfer model has been developed to analyze different mechanisms of heat leak into the LNG fuel. The evolving of properties and compositions of LNG fuel inside LNG tanks is simulated. The effect of a number of buses fueled each day on the possible total fuel loss rate has been analyzed. It is found that by increasing the number of buses, fueled each day, the total fuel loss rate can be reduced significantly. It is proposed that an electric generator be used to consume the boil-off gas or a liquefier be used to re-liquefy the boiloff gas to reduce the tank pressure and eliminate fuel losses. These approaches can prevent boil-off of natural gas emissions, and reduce the costs of LNG as transportation fuel.

Dynamic Modeling and Interaction of Hybrid Natural Gas and Electricity Supply System in Microgrid

Natural gas (NG) network and electric network are becoming tightly integrated by microturbines in the microgrid. Interactions between these two networks are not well captured by the traditional microturbine (MT) models. To address this issue, two improved models for single-shaft MT and split-shaft MT are proposed in this paper. In addition, dynamic models of the hybrid natural gas and electricity system (HGES) are developed for the analysis of their interactions. Dynamic behaviors of natural gas in pipes are described by partial differential equations (PDEs), while the electric network is described by differential algebraic equations (DAEs). So the overall network is a typical two-time scale dynamic system. Numerical studies indicate that the two-time scale algorithm is faster and can capture the interactions between the two networks. The results also show the HGES with a single-shaft MT is a weakly coupled system in which disturbances in the two networks mainly influence the dc link voltage of the MT, while the split-shaft MT is a strongly coupled system where the impact of an event will affect both networks.

Life cycle assessment of concentrated solar power (CSP) and the influence of hybridising with natural gas

Purpose Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants based on parabolic troughs utilize auxiliary fuels (usually natural gas) to facilitate start-up operations, avoid freezing of HTF and increase power output. This practice has a significant effect on the environmental performance of the technology. The aim of this paper is to quantify the sustainability of CSP and to analyse how this is affected by hybridisation with different natural gas (NG) inputs. Methods A complete Life Cycle (LC) inventory was gathered for a commercial wet-cooled 50 MWe CSP plant based on parabolic troughs. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the environmental performance of the plant operating with different NG inputs (between 0 and 35% of gross electricity generation). ReCiPe Europe (H) was used as LCA methodology. CML 2 baseline 2000 World and ReCiPe Europe E were used for comparative purposes. Cumulative Energy Demands (CED) and Energy Payback Times (EPT) were also determined for each scenario. Results and discussion Operation of CSP using solar energy only produced the following environmental profile: climate change 26.6 kg CO2 eq/KWh, human toxicity 13.1 kg 1,4-DB eq/KWh, marine ecotoxicity 276 g 1,4-DB eq/KWh, natural land transformation 0.005 m2/KWh, eutrophication 10.1 g P eq/KWh, acidification 166 g SO2 eq/KWh. Most of these impacts are associated with extraction of raw materials and manufacturing of plant components. The utilization NG transformed the environmental profile of the technology, placing increasing weight on impacts related to its operation and maintenance. Significantly higher impacts were observed on categories like climate change (311 kg CO2 eq/MWh when using 35 % NG), natural land transformation, terrestrial acidification and fossil depletion. Despite its fossil nature, the use of NG had a beneficial effect on other impact categories (human and marine toxicity, freshwater eutrophication and natural land transformation) due to the higher electricity output achieved. The overall environmental performance of CSP significantly deteriorated with the use of NG (single score 3.52 pt in solar only operation compared to 36.1 pt when using 35 % NG). Other sustainability parameters like EPT and CED also increased substantially as a result of higher NG inputs. Quasilinear second-degree polynomial relationships were calculated between various environmental performance parameters and NG contributions. Conclusions Energy input from auxiliary NG determines the environmental profile of the CSP plant. Aggregated analysis shows a deleterious effect on the overall environmental performance of the technology as a result of NG utilization. This is due primarily to higher impacts on environmental categories like climate change, natural land transformation, fossil fuel depletion and terrestrial acidification. NG may be used in a more sustainable and cost-effective manner in combined cycle power plants, which achieve higher energy conversion efficiencies.

Hybridizing concentrated solar power (CSP) with biogas and biomethane as an alternative to natural gas: Analysis of environmental performance using LCA

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants typically incorporate one or various auxiliary boilers operating in parallel to the solar field to facilitate start up operations, provide system stability, avoid freezing of heat transfer fluid (HTF) and increase generation capacity. The environmental performance of these plants is highly influenced by the energy input and the type of auxiliary fuel, which in most cases is natural gas (NG). Replacing the NG with biogas or biomethane (BM) in commercial CSP installations is being considered as a means to produce electricity that is fully renewable and free from fossil inputs. Despite their renewable nature, the use of these biofuels also generates environmental impacts that need to be adequately identified and quantified. This paper investigates the environmental performance of a commercial wet-cooled parabolic trough 50 MWe CSP plant in Spain operating according to two strategies: solar-only, with minimum technically viable energy non-solar contribution; and hybrid operation, where 12 % of the electricity derives from auxiliary fuels (as permitted by Spanish legislation). The analysis was based on standard Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology (ISO 14040-14040). The technical viability and the environmental profile of operating the CSP plant with different auxiliary fuels was evaluated, including: NG; biogas from an adjacent plant; and BM withdrawn from the gas network. The effect of using different substrates (biowaste, sewage sludge, grass and a mix of biowaste with animal manure) for the production of the biofuels was also investigated. The results showed that NG is responsible for most of the environmental damage associated with the operation of the plant in hybrid mode. Replacing NG with biogas resulted in a significant improvement of the environmental performance of the installation, primarily due to reduced impact in the following categories: natural land transformation, depletion of fossil resources, and climate change. However, despite the renewable nature of the biofuels, other environmental categories like human toxicity, eutrophication, acidification and marine ecotoxicity scored higher when using biogas and BM.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Natural Gas location design and operation

A major determinant of the level of effective natural gas supply is the ease to feed customers, minimizing system total costs. The aim of this work is the study of the right number of Gas Supply Units – GSUs - and their optimal location in a gas network. This paper suggests a GSU location heuristic, based on Lagrangean relaxation techniques. The heuristic is tested on the Iberian natural gas network, a system modelized with 65 demand nodes, linked by physical and virtual pipelines. Lagrangean heuristic results along with the allocation of loads to gas sources are presented, using a 2015 forecast gas demand scenario.

Carbon Dioxide Uptake from Natural Gas by Binary Ionic Liquid-Water mixtures

Carbon dioxide solubility in a set of carboxylate ionic liquids formulated with stoicheiometric amounts of water is found to be significantly higher than for other ionic liquids previously reported. This is due to synergistic chemical and physical absorption. The formulated ionic liquid/water mixtures show greatly enhanced carbon dioxide solubility relative to both anhydrous ionic liquids and aqueous ionic liquid solutions, and are competitive with commercial chemical absorbers, such as activated N-methyldiethanolamine or monoethanolamine.

Particle and gaseous emissions from compressed natural gas and ultralow sulphur diesel-fuelled buses at four steady engine loads

Exhaust emissions from thirteen compressed natural gas (CNG) and nine ultralow sulphur diesel in-service transport buses were monitored on a chassis dynamometer. Measurements were carried out at idle and at three steady engine loads of 25%, 50% and 100% of maximum power at a fixed speed of 60 kmph. Emission factors were estimated for particle mass and number, carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen for two types of CNG buses (Scania and MAN, compatible with Euro 2 and 3 emission standards, respectively) and two types of diesel buses (Volvo Pre-Euro/Euro1 and Mercedez OC500 Euro3). All emission factors increased with load. The median particle mass emission factor for the CNG buses was less than 1% of that from the diesel buses at all loads. However, the particle number emission factors did not show a statistically significant difference between buses operating on the two types of fuel. In this paper, for the very first time, particle number emission factors are presented at four steady state engine loads for CNG buses. Median values ranged from the order of 1012 particles min-1 at idle to 1015 particles km-1 at full power. Most of the particles observed in the CNG emissions were in the nanoparticle size range and likely to be composed of volatile organic compounds The CO2 emission factors were about 20% to 30% greater for the diesel buses over the CNG buses, while the oxides of nitrogen emission factors did not show any difference due to the large variation between buses.

Critical analysis of high particle number emissions from accelerating compressed natural gas buses

Compressed natural gas (CNG) engines are thought to be less harmful to the environment than conventional diesel engines, especially in terms of particle emissions. Although, this is true with respect to particulate matter (PM) emissions, results of particle number (PN) emission comparisons have been inconclusive. In this study, results of on-road and dynamometer studies of buses were used to derive several important conclusions. We show that, although PN emissions from CNG buses are significantly lower than from diesel buses at low engine power, they become comparable at high power. For diesel buses, PN emissions are not significantly different between acceleration and operation at steady maximum power. However, the corresponding PN emissions from CNG buses when accelerating are an order of magnitude greater than when operating at steady maximum power. During acceleration under heavy load, PN emissions from CNG buses are an order of magnitude higher than from diesel buses. The particles emitted from CNG buses are too small to contribute to PM10 emissions or contribute to a reduction of visibility, and may consist of semivolatile nanoparticles.

Carbon dioxide emissions from diesel and compressed natural gas buses during acceleration

Motor vehicle emission factors are generally derived from driving tests mimicking steady state conditions or transient drive cycles. However, neither of these test conditions completely represents real world driving conditions. In particular, they fail to determine emissions generated during the accelerating phase – a condition in which urban buses spend much of their time. In this study we analyse and compare the results of time-dependant emission measurements conducted on diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) buses during an urban driving cycle on a chassis dynamometer and we derive power-law expressions relating carbon dioxide (CO2) emission factors to the instantaneous speed while accelerating from rest. Emissions during acceleration are compared with that during steady speed operation. These results have important implications for emission modelling particularly under congested traffic conditions.

Volatile properties of particles emitted by compressed natural gas and diesel buses during steady state and transient driving modes

Volatile properties of particle emissions from four compressed natural gas (CNG) and four diesel buses were investigated under steady state and transient driving modes on a chassis dynamometer. The exhaust was diluted utilising a full-flow continuous volume sampling system and passed through a thermodenuder at controlled temperature. Particle number concentration and size distribution were measured with a condensation particle counter and a scanning mobility particle sizer, respectively. We show that, while almost all the particles emitted by the CNG buses were in the nanoparticle size range, at least 85% and 98% were removed at 100ºC and 250ºC, respectively. Closer analysis of the volatility of particles emitted during transient cycles showed that volatilisation began at around 40°C with the majority occurring by 80°C. Particles produced during hard acceleration from rest exhibited lower volatility than that produced during other times of the cycle. Based on our results and the observation of ash deposits on the walls of the tailpipes, we suggest that these non-volatile particles were composed mostly of ash from lubricating oil. Heating the diesel bus emissions to 100ºC removed ultrafine particle numbers by 69% to 82% when a nucleation mode was present and just 18% when it was not.

Nitrogen removal from natural gas using solid boron : A first-principles computational study

Selective separation of nitrogen (N2) from methane (CH4) is highly significant in natural gas purification, and it is very challenging to achieve this because of their nearly identical size (the molecular diameters of N2 and CH4 are 3.64 Å and 3.80 Å, respectively). Here we theoretically study the adsorption of N2 and CH4 on B12 cluster and solid boron surfaces a-B12 and c-B28. Our results show that these electron-deficiency boron materials have higher selectivity in adsorbing and capturing N2 than CH4, which provides very useful information for experimentally exploiting boron materials for natural gas purification.