La fantasmatique du grand remplacement dans le roman français contemporain (Renaud Camus, Éric Zemmour, Michel Houellebecq)

L’imaginaire social français est aujourd’hui dominé par une peur lancinante. Au début du XXIe siècle, les angoisses démographiques et culturelles entretenues par une partie des intellectuels trouvent de nouvelles assises dans la popularisation de la fantasmatique du « grand remplacement », un scénario conspirationniste qui annonce un changement de population sur le territoire français où une civilisation orientale prend peu à peu la place des « idéaux occidentaux ». La littérature a la particularité de mettre en récit des représentations et des débats précis qui circulent dans l’imaginaire social. Cette étude évalue le travail d’invention spécifique à la littérature produit dans trois romans – L’Épuisant désir de ces choses de Renaud Camus, Petit frère d’Éric Zemmour et Soumission de Michel Houellebecq – qui créent, modifient et reconfigurent cette fantasmatique. Ces textes décrivent et anticipent la fin de la Ve République telle qu’elle est aujourd’hui connue, mais de façons différentes. Pour des raisons ethniques, civiques ou métaphysiques, ils laissent entendre que désormais « la France, c’est les autres! ».

La fantasmatique du grand remplacement dans le roman français contemporain (Renaud Camus, Éric Zemmour, Michel Houellebecq)

L’imaginaire social français est aujourd’hui dominé par une peur lancinante. Au début du XXIe siècle, les angoisses démographiques et culturelles entretenues par une partie des intellectuels trouvent de nouvelles assises dans la popularisation de la fantasmatique du « grand remplacement », un scénario conspirationniste qui annonce un changement de population sur le territoire français où une civilisation orientale prend peu à peu la place des « idéaux occidentaux ». La littérature a la particularité de mettre en récit des représentations et des débats précis qui circulent dans l’imaginaire social. Cette étude évalue le travail d’invention spécifique à la littérature produit dans trois romans – L’Épuisant désir de ces choses de Renaud Camus, Petit frère d’Éric Zemmour et Soumission de Michel Houellebecq – qui créent, modifient et reconfigurent cette fantasmatique. Ces textes décrivent et anticipent la fin de la Ve République telle qu’elle est aujourd’hui connue, mais de façons différentes. Pour des raisons ethniques, civiques ou métaphysiques, ils laissent entendre que désormais « la France, c’est les autres! ».

Assessing the decline in the national saving rate.

S/N 052-070-06873-6 (GPO)

Trends in National Party support

The National Party of Australia is under challenge. Will it be able to adapt and survive or will it become increasingly irrelevant in Australian politics? With population growth in some coastal and hinterland areas and decline in inland agricultural areas, the face of rural and regional Australia is changing. As a result, the National Party's traditional support is being eroded. Within the long-standing Coalition, the influence of the Nationals appears to be in decline, yet they continue to resist amalgamation with the Liberal Party.

National survey of viruses in pastures of subterranean clover. I. Incidence of four viruses assessed by ELISA

A nationwide survey was made of the time-course incidence of alfalfa mosaic virus (AMV), clover yellow vein virus (CYVV), subterranean clover mottle virus (SCMoV) and subterranean clover red leaf virus (SCRLV) in improved pastures in southern regions of Australia. Averaged over all states, the highest mean incidence recorded for samples infected with individual viruses in either winter or spring was 9.4% for AMV, 5.7% for CYVV, 10.9% for SCMoV and 7.5% for SCRLV. For AMV and SCRLV, there was an increasing trend from spring 1984 to spring 1986. A similar increasing trend for SCMoV was more evident in winter than in spring. For CYVV, no time-course pattern was evident. Results support the proposition that viruses contribute significantly to "clover-decline', a well-known problem in pastures of Trifolium subterraneum. -from Authors

Herpetofaunal Inventories of the National Parks of South Florida and the Caribbean: Volume II. Virgin Islands National Park

Amphibian declines and extinctions have been documented around the world, often in protected natural areas. Concern for this alarming trend has focused attention on the need to document all species of amphibians that occur within U.S. National Parks and to search for any signs that amphibians may be declining. This study, an inventory of amphibian species in Virgin Islands National Park, was conducted from 2001 to 2003. The goals of the project were to create a georeferenced inventory of amphibian species, use new analytical techniques to estimate proportion of sites occupied by each species, look for any signs of amphibian decline (missing species, disease, die-offs, etc.), and to establish a protocol that could be used for future monitoring efforts. Several sampling methods were used to accomplish these goals. Visual encounter surveys and anuran vocalization surveys were conducted in all habitats throughout the park to estimate the proportion of sites or proportion of area occupied (PAO) by amphibian species in each habitat. Line transect methods were used to estimate density of some amphibian species and double observer analysis was used to refine counts based on detection probabilities. Opportunistic collections were used to augment the visual encounter methods for rare species. Data were collected during four sampling periods and every major trail system throughout the park was surveyed. All of the amphibian species believed to occur on St. John were detected during these surveys. One species not previously reported, the Cuban treefrog (Osteopilus septentrionalis), was also added to the species list. That species and two others (Eleutherodactylus coqui and Eleutherodactylus lentus) bring the total number of introduced amphibians on St. John to three. We detected most of the reptile species thought to occur on St. John, but our methods were less suitable for reptiles compared to amphibians. No amphibian species appear to be in decline at this time. We found no evidence of disease or of malformations. Our surveys provide a snapshot picture of the status of the amphibian species, so continued monitoring would be necessary to determine long-term trends, but several potential threats to amphibians were identified. Invasive species, especially the Cuban treefrog, have the potential to decrease populations of native amphibians. Introduced mammalian predators are also a potential threat, especially to the reptiles of St. John, and mammalian grazers might have indirect effects on amphibians and reptiles through habitat modification. Finally, loss of habitat to development outside the park boundary could harm some important populations of amphibians and reptiles on the island.

Herpetofaunal Inventories of the National Parks of South Florida and the Caribbean: Volume III. Big Cypress National Preserve

Amphibian declines and extinctions have been documented around the world, often in protected natural areas. Concern for this trend has prompted the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Park Service to document all species of amphibians that occur within U.S. National Parks and to search for any signs that amphibians may be declining. This study, an inventory of amphibian species in Big Cypress National Preserve, was conducted from 2002 to 2003. The goals of the project were to create a georeferenced inventory of amphibian species, use new analytical techniques to estimate proportion of sites occupied by each species, look for any signs of amphibian decline (missing species, disease, die-offs, and so forth.), and to establish a protocol that could be used for future monitoring efforts. Several sampling methods were used to accomplish these goals. Visual encounter surveys and anuran vocalization surveys were conducted in all habitats throughout the park to estimate the proportion of sites or proportion of area occupied (PAO) by each amphibian species in each habitat. Opportunistic collections, as well as limited drift fence data, were used to augment the visual encounter methods for highly aquatic or cryptic species. A total of 545 visits to 104 sites were conducted for standard sampling alone, and 2,358 individual amphibians and 374 reptiles were encountered. Data analysis was conducted in program PRESENCE to provide PAO estimates for each of the anuran species. All of the amphibian species historically found in Big Cypress National Preserve were detected during this project. At least one individual of each of the four salamander species was captured during sampling. Each of the anuran species in the preserve was adequately sampled using standard herpetological sampling methods, and PAO estimates were produced for each species of anuran by habitat. This information serves as an indicator of habitat associations of the species and relative abundance of sites occupied, but it will also be useful as a comparative baseline for future monitoring efforts. In addition to sampling for amphibians, all encounters with reptiles were documented. The sampling methods used for detecting amphibians are also appropriate for many reptile species. These reptile locations are included in this report, but the number of reptile observations was not sufficient to estimate PAO for reptile species. We encountered 35 of the 46 species of reptiles believed to be present in Big Cypress National Preserve during this study, and evidence exists of the presence of four other reptile species in the Preserve. This study found no evidence of amphibian decline in Big Cypress National Preserve. Although no evidence of decline was observed, several threats to amphibians were identified. Introduced species, especially the Cuban treefrog (Osteopilus septentrionalis), are predators and competitors with several native frog species. The recreational use of off-road vehicles has the potential to affect some amphibian populations, and a study on those potential impacts is currently underway. Also, interference by humans with the natural hydrologic cycle of south Florida has the potential to alter the amphibian community. Continued monitoring of the amphibian species in Big Cypress National Preserve is recommended. The methods used in this study were adequate to produce reliable estimates of the proportion of sites occupied by most anuran species, and are a cost-effective means of determining the status of their populations.

Long-term monitoring of habitats and reef fish found inside and outside the U.S. Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument: a comparative assessment

The primary objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR), a marine protected area in St John, US Virgin Islands. Surveys of habitat and fishes inside and outside of VICR were conducted in 2003-2008. Areas outside the VICR had significantly more scleractinian corals, greater habitat complexity, and greater species richness and density of reef fishes than areas inside., Areas inside and outside the VICR exhibited significant decreases in percent scleractinian coral coverage over the study period. A contrasting trend of increasing macroalgal cover was also observed. No clear effect of the severe 2005 coral bleaching event was observed suggesting other causal factors. No obvious trends in the fish community were observed across the study period. The significant decline in habitat condition, coupled with the initial incorporation of some of the more degraded reefs into the marine protected area may result in a longer time period necessary to detect positive changes in the St. John coral reef ecosystem and associated reef fish abundance and community structure.

The decline of Alestes baremose Boulenger, 1901 and Hydrocynus forskahlii (Cuvier, 1819) stocks in Lake Albert: implications for sustainable management of their fisheries

The fish stocks of Lake Albert face immense exploitation pressure which has led to “fishingdown” of their fisheries, with some larger species having been driven to near-extinction, while others such as Citharinus citharus have almost disappeared. Both A. baremose (Angara) and H. forskahlii (Ngassia) historically formed the most important commercial species in Lake Albert until the early 2000s but recent Catch Assessment Surveys (2007-2013) revealed a sweeping decline in their contribution to the commercial catch from 72.7% in 1971 to less than 6% in 2013. The catch per unit effort also registered a two-fold decline from 45.6 and 36.1 kg/boat/day to 22.6 and 18.1 kg/boat/day for A. baremose and H. forskahlii respective between 1971 and 2007. Over 50% of illegal gillnets, below the legal minimum limit of four inches (101.6 mm) used on Lake Albert target the two species. Gillnet experiments found the three inch (76.2 mm) gill net mesh size suitable for sustained harvest of the two species. The study concludes that optimal utilization of the two species and probably other non target fish species is achievable through species specific management strategies, coupling species specific licensing, and controlling harvest of juvenile individuals, overall fishing effort and fish catch on Lake Albert and protecting the vulnerable fish habitats.

UK RRT Incidence in 2009: national and centre-specific analyses

Introduction: This chapter describes the characteristics of
adult patients on renal replacement therapy (RRT) in the
UK in 2009. The prevalence rates per million population
(pmp) were calculated for Primary Care Trusts in England,
Health and Social Care Areas in Northern Ireland, Local
Health Boards in Wales and Health Boards in Scotland.
These areas will be referred to in this report as ‘PCT/HBs’.
Methods: Data were electronically collected from all 72
renal centres within the UK. A series of cross-sectional and
longitudinal analyses were performed to describe the
demographics of prevalent RRT patients in 2009 at centre
and national level. Age and gender standardised ratios for
prevalence rates in PCT/HBs were calculated. Results:
There were 49,080 adult patients receiving RRT in the UK
on 31st December 2009, equating to a UK prevalence of
794 pmp. This represented an annual increase in prevalent
numbers of approximately 3.2% although there was significant
variation between centres and PCT/HB areas. The
growth rate from 2008 to 2009 for prevalent patients by
treatment modality in the UK was 4.2% for haemodialysis
(HD), a fall of 7.2% for peritoneal dialysis (PD) and a
growth of 4.4% with a functioning transplant. There has
been a slow but steady decline in the proportion of PD
patients from 2000 onwards. Median RRT vintage was 5.4
years. The median age of prevalent patients was 57.7
years (HD 65.9 years, PD 61.2 years and transplant 50.8
years). For all ages, prevalence rates in males exceeded
those in females: peaks for males were in the 75–79 years
age group at 2,632 pmp and for females in the 70–74
years age group at 1,445 pmp. The most common identifiable
renal diagnosis was biopsy-proven glomerulonephritis
(16.0%), followed by diabetes (14.7%). Transplantation was
the most common treatment modality (48%), HD in 44%
and PD 8%. However, HD was increasingly common with
increasing age and transplantation less common. Conclusions:
The HD and transplant population continued to
expand whilst the PD population contracted. There were
national, regional and dialysis centre level variations in
prevalence rates. This has implications for service planning
and ensuring equity of care for RRT patients.

Parties in democratic national assemblies: comparative assessment of parliaments note

This paper argues that the analysis of democratic national assemblies is not only impossible without discussing political parties, but also incomprehensible without recognizing parties as the most significant organizations within them. Parties have structured political groupings and demands on government even before assemblies were democratically elected. And although parties may be in decline as institutions mediating between society and government in the current era, they remain significant as organizing forces within government. The paper first explains the origins of party organizations within parliaments by exploring why individual members and the assemblies taken as a whole need parties: what are their costs and benefits? It then describes the manner in which party organizations operate in different national assembly chambers. The third section analyses types and sources of party influence, including the role played by party leaders in manipulating legislative agendas, structuring Members’ policy choices and shaping policy outcomes. The final section reviews how politi- cal scientists have sought to explain intra-party cohesion and discipline across different national assemblies.

Democracy, cosmopolitanism and national identity in a ‘globalising’ world

Broadly globalising processes have been in train for centuries, but contemporary discourse about globalisation is here located within a specific historical context, particularly characterised by new forms of communications and the pressures on states produced by the decline of Keynesianism and the end of the Cold War. Coincident changes also led to a growing interest in national identities, marked not least by the founding of this journal in 1999. Globalisation, a series of processes rather than a single force, has a range of effects on states, nations and national identities, including accommodation and adaptation as well as resistance. Indeed, globalising forces, such as democratisation, are shown to require nation-building. Attempts to impose order on international society through cosmopolitan devices are arguably more inimical to national identities. As with nations, cosmopolitanism involves an imagined community. Because this necessarily exists outside time, the building of a sense of trust and commonality across people and territory is however more challenging. Without popular ownership, it is argued, cosmopolitanism is often more likely to appear a threat than a boon. Building a global civil society, or indeed local democracies, is also unlikely when so many societies still lack local versions anchored in some form of national identity.

La conservation de la biodiversité dans les aires protégées en zones périurbaines : dynamique des communautés végétales au parc national du Mont-Saint-Bruno entre 1977 et 2013

Ce mémoire visait à déterminer si un petit parc périurbain, en l’occurrence le Parc national du Mont-Saint-Bruno, est parvenu à maintenir l’intégrité de sa flore au cours des trente dernières années en dépit de pressions humaines croissantes et de perturbations naturelles passées, en plus d’identifier les principaux changements floristiques survenus au cours de cette période et les facteurs responsables. Pour répondre à ces objectifs, une étude historique a été réalisée, en comparant un inventaire floristique ancien (1977) à un inventaire récent (2013). Mes résultats montrent d’abord une forte croissance de la diversité alpha indigène au cours des 35 dernières années, accompagnée d’un déclin significatif de la diversité bêta (30%). Malgré cette homogénéisation taxonomique, la diversité fonctionnelle de la flore forestière s’est accrue, la rendant probablement plus résiliente aux événements perturbateurs. D’autre part, mes analyses ont révélé la progression de traits fonctionnels souvent associés à des habitats forestiers intensément broutés, révélant une certaine influence du cerf de Virginie sur la composition et la structure de la flore forestière. Enfin, mes résultats ont montré que les herbiers botaniques se révèlent être une alternative fiable aux méthodes traditionnelles pour documenter et évaluer l’impact des grands herbivores sur la morphologie des plantes broutées. Au final, cette étude a montré que les petites aires protégées périurbaines peuvent jouer un rôle majeur dans la préservation de la diversité floristique d’habitats forestiers d’intérêt, particulièrement lorsque leur statut de protection permet d’encadrer de manière stricte les activités humaines.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.