Analyse par apprentissage automatique des réponses fMRI du cortex auditif à des modulations spectro-temporelles

L'application de classifieurs linéaires à l'analyse des données d'imagerie cérébrale (fMRI) a mené à plusieurs percées intéressantes au cours des dernières années. Ces classifieurs combinent linéairement les réponses des voxels pour détecter et catégoriser différents états du cerveau. Ils sont plus agnostics que les méthodes d'analyses conventionnelles qui traitent systématiquement les patterns faibles et distribués comme du bruit. Dans le présent projet, nous utilisons ces classifieurs pour valider une hypothèse portant sur l'encodage des sons dans le cerveau humain. Plus précisément, nous cherchons à localiser des neurones, dans le cortex auditif primaire, qui détecteraient les modulations spectrales et temporelles présentes dans les sons. Nous utilisons les enregistrements fMRI de sujets soumis à 49 modulations spectro-temporelles différentes. L'analyse fMRI au moyen de classifieurs linéaires n'est pas standard, jusqu'à maintenant, dans ce domaine. De plus, à long terme, nous avons aussi pour objectif le développement de nouveaux algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique spécialisés pour les données fMRI. Pour ces raisons, une bonne partie des expériences vise surtout à étudier le comportement des classifieurs. Nous nous intéressons principalement à 3 classifieurs linéaires standards, soient l'algorithme machine à vecteurs de support (linéaire), l'algorithme régression logistique (régularisée) et le modèle bayésien gaussien naïf (variances partagées).

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes

A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes is introduced. The proposed model may accommodate the original single shift setting to the more realistic situation of gradual quality deterioration and allows the incorporation of an expert's opinion on the production process. Based on the number of inspections to be carried out until a defective item is found, the Bayesian operation for the distribution function that represents the increasing sequence of defective fractions during a cycle considering a mixture of Dirichlet processes as prior distribution is performed. Bayes estimates for relevant quantities are also obtained. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Severity of Brazilian sickle cell disease patients: severity scores and feasibility of the Bayesian network model use

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes

A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes is introduced. The proposed model may accommodate the original single shift setting to the more realistic situation of gradual quality deterioration and allows the incorporation of an expert's opinion on the production process. Based on the number of inspections to be carried out until a defective item is found, the Bayesian operation for the distribution function that represents the increasing sequence of defective fractions during a cycle considering a mixture of Dirichlet processes as prior distribution is performed. Bayes estimates for relevant quantities are also obtained. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE MODEL FOR INCOMPLETE LONGITUDINAL BINARY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO THE BREAST CANCER PREVENTION TRIAL

We consider inference in randomized studies, in which repeatedly measured outcomes may be informatively missing due to drop out. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and posit an exponential tilt model that links non-identifiable and identifiable distributions. This model is indexed by non-identified parameters, which are assumed to have an informative prior distribution, elicited from subject-matter experts. Under this model, full data estimands are shown to be expressed as functionals of the distribution of the observed data. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, we model the distribution of the observed data using a Bayesian shrinkage model. In a simulation study, we compare our approach to a fully parametric and a fully saturated model for the distribution of the observed data. Our methodology is motivated and applied to data from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

Massively parallelizable list-mode reconstruction using a Monte Carlo-based elliptical Gaussian model

Purpose: A fully three-dimensional (3D) massively parallelizable list-mode ordered-subsets expectation-maximization (LM-OSEM) reconstruction algorithm has been developed for high-resolution PET cameras. System response probabilities are calculated online from a set of parameters derived from Monte Carlo simulations. The shape of a system response for a given line of response (LOR) has been shown to be asymmetrical around the LOR. This work has been focused on the development of efficient region-search techniques to sample the system response probabilities, which are suitable for asymmetric kernel models, including elliptical Gaussian models that allow for high accuracy and high parallelization efficiency. The novel region-search scheme using variable kernel models is applied in the proposed PET reconstruction algorithm. Methods: A novel region-search technique has been used to sample the probability density function in correspondence with a small dynamic subset of the field of view that constitutes the region of response (ROR). The ROR is identified around the LOR by searching for any voxel within a dynamically calculated contour. The contour condition is currently defined as a fixed threshold over the posterior probability, and arbitrary kernel models can be applied using a numerical approach. The processing of the LORs is distributed in batches among the available computing devices, then, individual LORs are processed within different processing units. In this way, both multicore and multiple many-core processing units can be efficiently exploited. Tests have been conducted with probability models that take into account the noncolinearity, positron range, and crystal penetration effects, that produced tubes of response with varying elliptical sections whose axes were a function of the crystal's thickness and angle of incidence of the given LOR. The algorithm treats the probability model as a 3D scalar field defined within a reference system aligned with the ideal LOR. Results: This new technique provides superior image quality in terms of signal-to-noise ratio as compared with the histogram-mode method based on precomputed system matrices available for a commercial small animal scanner. Reconstruction times can be kept low with the use of multicore, many-core architectures, including multiple graphic processing units. Conclusions: A highly parallelizable LM reconstruction method has been proposed based on Monte Carlo simulations and new parallelization techniques aimed at improving the reconstruction speed and the image signal-to-noise of a given OSEM algorithm. The method has been validated using simulated and real phantoms. A special advantage of the new method is the possibility of defining dynamically the cut-off threshold over the calculated probabilities thus allowing for a direct control on the trade-off between speed and quality during the reconstruction.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for categorical longitudinal data from a social survey of immigrants

The paper investigates a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of categorical longitudinal data from a large social survey of immigrants to Australia. Data for each subject are observed on three separate occasions, or waves, of the survey. One of the features of the data set is that observations for some variables are missing for at least one wave. A model for the employment status of immigrants is developed by introducing, at the first stage of a hierarchical model, a multinomial model for the response and then subsequent terms are introduced to explain wave and subject effects. To estimate the model, we use the Gibbs sampler, which allows missing data for both the response and the explanatory variables to be imputed at each iteration of the algorithm, given some appropriate prior distributions. After accounting for significant covariate effects in the model, results show that the relative probability of remaining unemployed diminished with time following arrival in Australia.

Application of Naïve Bayesian sequential analysis to primary care optometry

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of circularity, comorbidity, prevalence and presentation variation on the accuracy of differential diagnoses made in optometric primary care using a modified form of naïve Bayesian sequential analysis. No such investigation has ever been reported before. Data were collected for 1422 cases seen over one year. Positive test outcomes were recorded for case history (ethnicity, age, symptoms and ocular and medical history) and clinical signs in relation to each diagnosis. For this reason only positive likelihood ratios were used for this modified form of Bayesian analysis that was carried out with Laplacian correction and Chi-square filtration. Accuracy was expressed as the percentage of cases for which the diagnoses made by the clinician appeared at the top of a list generated by Bayesian analysis. Preliminary analyses were carried out on 10 diagnoses and 15 test outcomes. Accuracy of 100% was achieved in the absence of presentation variation but dropped by 6% when variation existed. Circularity artificially elevated accuracy by 0.5%. Surprisingly, removal of Chi-square filtering increased accuracy by 0.4%. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy was influenced primarily by prevalence followed by presentation variation and comorbidity. Analysis of 35 diagnoses and 105 test outcomes followed. This explored the use of positive likelihood ratios, derived from the case history, to recommend signs to look for. Accuracy of 72% was achieved when all clinical signs were entered. The drop in accuracy, compared to the preliminary analysis, was attributed to the fact that some diagnoses lacked strong diagnostic signs; the accuracy increased by 1% when only recommended signs were entered. Chi-square filtering improved recommended test selection. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy again influenced primarily by prevalence, followed by comorbidity and presentation variation. Future work will explore the use of likelihood ratios based on positive and negative test findings prior to considering naïve Bayesian analysis as a form of artificial intelligence in optometric practice.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.