全球变化不绿洲的演化趋势研究-以塔里木盆地北部渭干河绿洲为例

本文以全球变化对绿洲水文循环影响为主线，分析了地处干旱区的绿洲在全球变化下的演变趋势。以塔里木盆地北部渭干河绿洲为例，探讨了其水量平衡、非灌溉土壤积盐特性、隐域性盐化草甸植被NPP，以及绿洲土地利用／覆被变化对全球变化的响应。从不同时间尺度上分析了全球变化的两大驱动因子，气候变化和人类活动对绿洲演化的影响。运用系统动力学模型模拟了未来30年绿洲土地覆被变化在上述两驱动因子的作用下的动态演变过程。其主要结论如下： 1、从生态学的角度，绿洲可定义为：存在于干旱、半干旱区的依赖于水源而生存的隐域性绿色景观．地质时期，绿洲的演化由气候等自然因子起决定作用;人类历史时期，在气候等自然因素的大背景下，人类活动对绿洲演变的作用越来越大;近百年来，绿洲的演变则主要受人为活动干扰。 2、在不改变绿洲现有土地利用格局和水资源利用率的情况下，当年平均气温升高2.5℃，无论降水增加200%或不增加，绿洲的水资源量都将出现负平衡，全球变化将使绿洲面临更为严重的水资源短缺。 3、绿洲自然土壤0-5 0cm土层积盐速率对全球变化的响应程度依地下水埋深的大小而有所差异。地下水埋深较小，积盐速率随温度的升高增加较明显;地下水埋深较大时，积盐速率变化不明显。当地下水埋深>2m，地表积盐速率不再随气候变化而变化．地下水埋深h=2m为渭干河绿洲非灌溉土壤地表积盐速率对全球变化响应的临界深度。 4、根据绿洲地下水埋深与植被NPP的相关关系，推导出了估算盐化草甸植被NPP的模型： NPP=-O. 991+0. 0005Eo (h-0. 25h^2+0. 021h^3) +5. 276EXP (-0. 651h) 并分别估算了当前及全球变化下的NPP值。盐化草甸植被NPP随地下水埋深的增加呈指数下降。全球变化下，地下水埋深较大时，NPP的增加较明显;地下水埋深较小时，NPP的增加不明显。 5、灵敏度分析表明：NPP对地下水埋深h的变化比对地下水矿化度变化为更敏感。h=3. 3m为渭干河绿洲盐化草甸植被的胁迫深度。 6、系统动力学模型模拟表明，渭干河绿洲耕地面积的增减受水资源利用率和人口数量变化的制约。全球变化下，由于水文状况的改变，未来30年将导致绿洲耕地面积增幅下降4. 5-5.1%。绿洲水文状况和人口数量变化是决定土地利用格局变化的关键驱动因素。 7、绿洲灌溉土地的优化模式为，耕地：林地：改良草地=70: 23:7;种植业（耕地）内部的比例为，粮食作物：经济作物：人工草地=46: 31: 23。

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

沿水分梯度草原群落NPP动态及对气候变化响应的模拟分析

水分条件不仅影响半干旱区群落的组成，而且在一定程度上决定了群落的功能。处于不同水分条件生境下群落的优势物种在水分利用和同化物利用效率方面的功能特征会存在差异，这些差异将导致群落对于气候变化产生不同的响应，进而影响到景观和区域尺度上对于全球变化下碳动态和格局的分析。本研究选取了锡林河流域典型草原区沿水分梯度的四个代表群落，在野外实验测定并结合长期定位研究成果基础上，利用BIOME-BGC模型对代表群落的长期净初级生产力(NPP)动态进行了模拟和模型验证。通过分析该地区1953~2005年气候变化趋势，推测了未来可能的气候变化情景，进而模拟了气候变化下四个群落长期NPP动态的响应。 野外实验分析表明，在四个群落中，净光合速率与光合有效辐射呈单峰曲线关系，与温度和蒸气压亏损(VPD)成反比，叶片氮含量和比叶面积也会影响到光合能力。四个群落由于水分与土壤条件的差别，净光合速率随VPD与温度的变化表现出不同的增减幅度。将日变化分为四个阶段，分别为大致在6:00~8:00左右的低温高湿阶段，10:00~16:00的高温低湿阶段，16:00以后的低温低湿阶段和低温高湿阶段变为高温低湿阶段过程中的适温适湿阶段。在每个阶段中，影响羊草光合速率的主导因子是不同的。在不同的水分与土壤状况下，羊草的光合特性表现出明显差异，但总体说来水分仍是光合作用的主导因子。 模型模拟结果表明，当前气候条件下，羊草群落NPP平均值为197.76 gC m-2 (SE=7.11)，大针茅群落NPP平均值为198.95 gC m-2 (SE=6.41)，贝加尔针茅群落NPP平均值为210.41 gC m-2 (SE=7.87)，克氏针茅群落NPP平均值为144.92 gC m-2 (SE=4.64)，四个群落NPP平均值为188.01 gC m-2 (SE=3.72)。 日最高温度与最低温度在1953~2005年间都明显增加，而降水变化很大。温度增加下(P0T1)NPP平均下降14.2%，降水增加下(P1T0)NPP平均增加13.2%，温度与降水都增加情景下(P1T1)NPP平均下降2.7%。在半干旱区，降水是NPP变化的主要限制因子，而温度通过影响了植物的呼吸与蒸散作用对NPP产生影响。 由于生境水分条件差别和优势物种功能特征差异，四个群落在气候变化中表现出对温度与降水不同的敏感程度，这与水分胁迫系数WSI、碳胁迫系数CSI变化密切相关。克氏针茅群落由于所处生境水分条件差，水分胁迫系数高，对降水的依赖程度最大;贝加尔针茅群落一方面处于较好的水分生境，具有相对较小的水分胁迫系数，另一方面，由于具有高碳氮比，维持呼吸消耗的光合产物比例低，碳胁迫系数远低于其它三个群落，未来气候变化下NPP较其它三个群落仍较高。

Replacing Norway spruce with European beech: a comparison of biomass and Net Primary Production patterns in young stands

An alteration of species composition in temperate forests – both managed and natural - is one of the expected effects of environmental change. Present forest tree species ranges will be altered by changing environmental conditions. By a combination of continuous and destructive sampling, we compared biomass stocks and annual NPP in naturally regenerated stands of Norway spruce and European beech. We purposely selected a site where future environmental conditions are predicted to favour beech over presently dominant spruce. We found no difference in overall productivity, but biomass allocation differed significantly between the two species. Beech allocated more assimilates to stem and roots than spruce. There was no significant difference between the species in NPP of the fast turnover biomass pool comprising foliage and fine roots. Maximum height growth occurred about a month earlier than in spruce, potentially changing the timing of carbon (C) flow into the soil pools. We show that the replacement of spruce by beech will result in changes in forest biomass allocation and in alterations of belowground C cycle. Such changes will affect forest ecosystem function by modifying the magnitude and timing of certain C fluxes, but also by potentially changing the species composition of forest biota dependent on them.

Partitioning of net primary production in Eucalyptus and Acacia stands and in mixed-species plantations: Two case-studies in contrasting tropical environments

The introduction of nitrogen fixing species (NFS) in fast-growing tree plantations is an alternative option to reduce fertilizer inputs. However, the success of mixed-species plantations depends on the balance between positive interactions among species (resulting from facilitation and/or complementarity) and the negative effects of interspecific competition.Using a carbon budget approach and coupling measurements of standing biomass, aboveground litterfall and soil CO2 efflux, we assessed the influence of replacing half of eucalypt trees by Acacia mangium on total belowground carbon flux (TBCF), net primary production (NPP) and its partitioning between above- and belowground growth at two tropical sites in Brazil (Itatinga) and in Congo (Kissoko) exhibiting contrasting climates, edaphic conditions and wood productions.Annual soil CO2 efflux (FS) was significantly lower in the acacia monocultures than in eucalypt monocultures and mixed-species stands at both sites. Annual FS was significantly lower at Itatinga compared to Kissoko for all stands while TBCF was significantly lower in the eucalypt stands only. In the eucalypt monocultures we found a significantly lower aboveground NPP (ANPP) and wood production (wood NPP) at Kissoko compared to Itatinga that was almost fully balanced by a significantly higher belowground NPP (BNPP), leading to similar NPP. Similarly, acacia monocultures exhibited significantly higher ANPP and wood NPP at Itatinga than at Kissoko. The mixed-species stands exhibited a significantly lower wood NPP and ANPP than the eucalypt monocultures at the Brazilian site while NPP of the mixture was not significantly different than the average NPP of the two monocultures. At the Congolese site, NPP of the mixture was significantly higher than the average NPP of the two monocultures. NPP was similar in the mixed-species stand and the eucalypt monoculture with a significantly lower partitioning of NPP to belowground production, leading to a one third higher wood biomass at harvest in the mixed-species stand.A positive effect of growing eucalypts with the nitrogen fixing acacia trees on stand wood production occurred at Kissoko but not at Itatinga. Mixed-species plantations with NFS can be advocated at sites where the productive gains resulting from nitrogen fixation are not compromised by other resource limitations. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Phosphorus Availability and Salinity Control Productivity and Demography of the Seagrass Thalassia testudinum in Florida Bay

Biomass, net primary productivity (NPP), foliar elemental content, and demography of Thalassia testudinum were monitored in populations from five sites across Florida Bay beginning in January 2001. Sites were selected to take advantage of the spatial variability in phosphorus (P) availability and salinity climates across the bay. Aboveground biomass and NPP of T. testudinum were determined five to six times annually. Short-shoot demography, belowground biomass, and belowground NPP were assessed from a single destructive harvest at each site and short-shoot cohorts were estimated from leaf scar counts multiplied by site-specific leaf production rates. Biomass, relative growth rate (RGR), and overall NPP were positively correlated with P availability. Additionally, a positive correlation between P availability and the ratio of photosynthetic to non-photosynthetic biomass suggests that T. testudinum increases allocation to aboveground biomass as P availability increases. Population turnover increased with P availability, evident in positive correlations of recruitment and mortality rates with P availability. Departures from seasonally modeled estimates of RGR were found to be influenced by salinity, which depressed RGR when below 20 psu or above 40 psu. Freshwater management in the headwaters of Florida Bay will alter salinity and nutrient climates. It is becoming clear that such changes will affect T. testudinum, with likely feedbacks on ecosystem structure, function, and habitat quality.

兴安落叶松林分布及生产力对气候变化的响应研究

处于北半球高纬度地区的环球北方森林是大气CO2的重要碳汇。但是，研究表明未来气候变化将使全球北方林北移，并由目前的大气CO2碳汇转为碳源。兴安落叶松林主要分布在大兴安岭林区，是我国寒温带针叶林区北段的地带性植被，也是环球北方森林的组成部分，位于我国对全球变化敏感的区域，是森林生态系统研究的重点。 本文以温暖指数（WI），寒冷指数（CI），湿润指数（WI），一月最低温度，七月最高温度和年降水量等环境变量为因子，比较分析了广义线性模型（GLM），逐步回归广义线性模型（SGLM），广义加法模型（GAM）和分类回归树（CART）模型对兴安落叶松地理分布的模拟效果。并结合全球气候模式预估的未来情景对未来气候条件下的分布进行了预估。同时，利用搜集到的生产力及相应的气候数据，在比较分析4个区域植被气候生产力模型对兴安落叶松林生产力模拟效果的基础上，选择模拟效果和结构简单的区域植被气候生产力模型，引入林龄这一生物因子，建立了兴安落叶松林生物气候生产力模型，探讨了兴安落叶松林生产力对气候变化的响应。结果表明，在广义线性模型，逐步回归广义线性模型，广义加法模型和分类回归树模型4个模型中，以广义加法模型模拟兴安落叶松地理分布最为准确。据此，结合未来气候变化情景模拟了兴安落叶松分布。在SRES-A2排放方案下，2020年兴安落叶松适宜分布面积将减少58.1％，2050年适宜分布面积进一步减少99.7％;在SRES-B2排放方案下，兴安落叶松适宜分布面积到2020年将减少66.4％，到2050年进一步减少97.9％。两种排放方案下，到2100年兴安落叶松适宜分布区将完全从我国消失。 4个区域植被气候生产力模型中，以综合模型模拟结果与实测值相关性最好，Thornthwaite memorial模型次之，但综合模型需要参数较多，且参数较难获取，因此选用Thornthwaite memorial模型来模拟兴安落叶松林气候生产力。在区域植被气候生产力模型的基础上，引入林龄这一生物因子，能显著提高区域植被气候生产力模型的模拟精度，从而建立了兴安落叶松林生物气候生产力模型。运用所建的兴安落叶松林生物气候生产力模型，结合未来气候情景预测，对不同林龄的兴安落叶松林生产力对气候变化的响应进行了研究，结果表明，未来气候变化下，不同林龄的兴安落叶松林生产力均有不同程度的增加。

川西亚高山森林生态系统辐射传输研究

辐射传输研究是贯穿森林生态系统的纽带，太阳辐射为植物的生长发育提供光合能量、适宜的环境温度以及发育信息。一方面，气候变化使到达地面辐射能的质和量发生变化，影响到植被的生长发育，改变森林的结构，而森林结构的变化又会影响林冠内辐射能的分配和质量，这些变化会进一步影响到林下土壤温度，改变森林根系活性以及土壤营养转化的效率；连锁反应的结果有可能会使森林生态系统的生产力发生变化，改变碳素和氮素源库的调节方向，从而反馈影响地球气候系统。另一方面，人类作为生态系统的成员，必然需要森林生态系统为其提供更多的原材料和更好的生态服务功能，如何实现这些目标，就需要人类适度调整干预方式和频度，达到预期的目的。本文在建立适合于川西亚高山森林的叶面积测量技术、光照辐射模型和土壤温度变化模型的基础上，对川西亚高山地带森林生态系统的辐射传输特征进行了分析，并从森林结构的角度探讨了林分内的辐射分布以及对土壤温度的影响。主要成果如下： 1. 提出了一种照相法测量叶面积的方法。通过对摆放在平面上的叶片照相，利用投影变化，把非正射图像转化为正射图像，然后经过计算机图像处理得到每一片叶片的面积、周长、长度、宽度等信息。这种方法可使用户以任意方向和距离拍摄处于平面上的叶片，能同时处理大量的叶片，适于野外离体或活体叶片测量。叶片面积分辨率可调，分辨率可以与常用的激光叶面积仪相近甚至更高，而且叶片图像可以存档查询。 2. 提出一种模拟林内光照变化的模型。利用林冠半球照片，记录视点以上半球内的林冠构件空间分布，作为林冠子模型；天空辐射子模型采用国际照明委员会(CIE)的标准晴天和阴天以及插值模型。该模型能够模拟林下某一位点处的实时光斑变化。 3. 提出一种土壤温度变化模型。把土壤视为具有容量和阻力性质的结构，利用电阻和电容器件构建土壤能量分布模型。外界太阳辐射能经过植被以及其它一些能量分配器后进入土壤，其中有一部分转化为土壤势能，即土壤温度。土壤温度的变化类似于电池的充放电过程。在已知模型参数的情况下，可以从太阳辐射计算土壤温度的变化。在模型参数未知的情况下，通过输入和输出值推算模型的参数，而模型参数中的时间常数与土壤组成和含水量有关，这样就可以知道土壤水分的变化情况。 4. 从王朗亚高山森林典型样地林分结构的测量获得林地三维结构图、树冠形态、叶面积密度等参数，这些参数输入到Brunner (1998)开发的tRAYci 模型中计算出一段时间内林分任意位置处的光照值。与林下辐射计测量值以及半球照片计算结果的比较，该模型基本上能够满足对林分光环境了解的要求。 5. 从川西亚高山森林生产力的角度，探讨了森林生产力研究的方法以及川西地区的研究历史和成果，发现了其中的一些规律和问题，特别是在叶面积测量上，还没有使用标准的叶面积指数定义。综合来看，川西地区针叶林叶面积指数(单位土地面积上植物冠层总叶面积的一半) 应在4-5 之间。降雨丰富的华西雨屏带是川西地区森林生产力最高的地区，而向西北森林生产力逐渐降低。川西地区云冷杉林森林生产力平均约为600 gDM m-2 a-1，但是根据辐射能计算的潜在生产力则达到1800 gDM m-2 a-1。实际与潜在森林生产力的巨大差异说明其它因子对生产力的影响。 6. 王朗亚高山3 个典型森林林分中，白桦林样地(BF) 林下草本以糙野青茅、牛至、紫菀等喜阳性物种为主，林下透光度较高；冷杉林样地(FF) 林下透光度最低，以喜阴性物种水金凤、蟹甲草、囊瓣芹等为主；而云杉林样地(SF)林分林龄最大，林下透光度介于冷杉林和白桦林之间，草本层仍然以喜阴性物种东方草莓、紫花碎米芥、酢浆草等为主。冷杉林和云杉林的灌木层也很丰富，卫矛属、五加属、茶藨子属、忍冬属植物很丰富，而在白桦林则以栒摘要子属、榛子属、鹅耳枥属等植物为主。藓类植物在云杉林中最丰富，并且形成毯状层，其它两个林分则很稀少。3 个样地林分结构与林下光环境有很强的相关性，从光环境特征可以在一定程度上推测林分的结构。各样地单纯从乔木层材积推算的NPP 排列顺序为BF>FF>SF，与林下辐射透射率和林分年龄的顺序相同，暗示辐射对群落演替过程的驱动作用。 7. 用半球照相法测得BF、FF 和SF 3 个样地的有效叶面积指数以SF 样地最高，BF 最低。如果考虑针叶树叶片在小枝上的丛聚分布，利用北方针叶林的数值进行校正，则SF 样地LAI 显著增加(达到89%)，其它样地的LAI 基本不变甚至有所下降。校正后的数值与文献中地面测量的结果较相近，说明在使用半球照相法测量川西亚高山针叶林LAI 时必须加以校正。 8. 在3 个样地中，白桦、岷江冷杉和方枝柏种群为丛聚分布，紫果云杉在FF和SF 样地中基本上为随机分布。3 个物种出现丛聚分布的最短距离约为2m，在最短距离以内则为随机分布。最短距离可能与树冠大小有关，种子传播特征以及对光照的需求状况可能是造成这种分布格局类型的原因。 Radiative transfer plays a key role in forest ecosystems. Solar radiation providesenergy for photosynthesis, appropriate ambient temperature and development informationfor plants. However, quality and quantity of radiation reaching land surface are affected byweather and subsequently influence the growth and development of plants, which in turnchanges the budget of radiation in forest. Soil temperature changes with the variation ofradiation under forest canopy and influences the activity of roots and rate of nutrientturnover. Thus, any changes of radiation will induce chain reactions in the entireecosystem and display in the value of net primary productivity which will possibly shiftthe relationship between carbon source and sink at local or regional scale and feed back tothe global climate system. On the other hand, as a component of ecosystems, humanbeings of course need to demand more materials and better service from ecosystems. Forthese purpose, man must adapt their pattern and frequency of interference to ecosystems.This paper aims to research on the canopy structure, the radiation distribution and theirinfluence on soil temperature from the process of radiative transfer in subalpine forestecosystem of western Sichuan. The main results are: 1 Present a new photogrammetric method for leaf area. The main idea is to convertnon-vertically taken images of planar leaves to orthoimages through projectivetransformation. The resultant images are used to get leaf morphological parametersthrough image processing. This method enables users to take photos at almost anyorientation and distance if only the leaves are placed on same plane, and to processlarge quantity of leaves in a short time, which is suitable for field measurement. Theresolution of leaf area is adjustable to fit for special requirement. 2 A model using hemispherical photos combining with solar tracks and radiation courseis provided to simulate light variation in forest. The hemispherical photos of canopyrecord the real spatial distribution of each element of plants viewed from a point. Skyradiance is simulated with CIE standard clear sky or cloudy sky model. This modelcan be used to simulate real time light variation under canopy. 3 Present a soil temperature model. Soil could be regarded as a body of resistor andcapacitor. Some of the budget of solar radiation in soil body is transformed into soilpotential energy, the soil temperature. Variation of soil temperature is driven by solarradiation, vegetation, soil properties, etc. This model has two parameters, one of whichis time constant and is related to soil water content. The inversed model can be used tosimulate the variation of soil water. 4 By using model tRAYci developed by Brunner (1998), the 3-D distribution of light inthree subalpine forest stands of Wanglang Nature Reserve has been simulated andvalidated with value of radiometers in these stands. This model can basically satisfythe need for understanding light regimes of these stands. 5 Present some principles and questions of NPP (net primary of productivity) researchesin western Sichuan. The standard leaf area index (LAI) defined by Chen and Black(1997) has not been used in this region. Total leaf area and projected leaf area indexare still used in NPP researches which may differ around 1-fold in magnitude. Thestandard LAI which is a half of total leaf area above unit land area should be between4 and 5 for typical subalpine coniferous forest of western Sichuan concluded fromliteratures. The maximum forest NPP occurs in West China rain belt and decreasesnorthwestwards. Average NPP of spruce-fir forest in western Sichuan is about600gDM m-2 a-1, which is below the potential NPP of 1800gDM m-2 a-1 based onmeasured radiation in this region. The significant difference between potential and realNPP suggests that other factors influence the growth of stands. 6 In the three subalpine forest stands of Wanglang Nature Reserve, herbage layer ofAbstractbirch stand (BF) with age of 40 is dominated by heliophytes of Deyeuxia scabrescens,Origanum vulgare, Aster tongoloa etc.. However, both of the other two stands aredominated by shade tolerent species, such as Impatiens noli-tangere, Impatiensdicentra, Cacalia deltophylla and Pternopetalum tanakae etc. in fir stand (FF) withage of 180 and Fragaria orientalis, Cardamine tangutorum and Oxalis corniculata etc.in spruce stand (SF) with age of 330. Shrub species in the latter two stands arerelatively rich, typical dominant genera being Euonymus, Acanthopanax, Ribes andLonicera. Birch stand has relatively sparse shrubs dominated by genera of Cotoneaster,Corylus and Carpinus. Mosses are significant only in spruce stand. The canopystructure controls the light regime of stand, which influence the composition of herblayers beneath the canopy. This light regime-community structure relationship can beused to infer the herb community from canopy structure. The NPP derived from timbervolume of arbor layer of the three stands decreases from BF to SF, which is in thesame order of transmitted total radiation under canopy and age of these stands,suggesting the driving effect of radiation in the succession of community. 7 The highest effective LAI of the three stands obtained by hemispherical photos is inplot SF and lowest in plot BF. After rectification of the clumping effect of leaves onshoot, the real LAI in plot SF increases significantly (89%) and approximate to theaverage LAI of coniferous forest in western Sichuan. Therefore, the LAI obtainedfrom hemispherical photos needs rectification for clumping effect. 8 Spatial distribution pattern for Betula platyphylla, Abies faxoniana and Sabinasaltuaria is clumpy, but Picea purpurea almost random in plot FF and SF. The shortestdistance for clumpy distribution for Betula platyphylla and Sabina saltuaria is 1.5m,and 2m for Abies faxoniana. And random pattern for these trees is exhibited within thisrange which almost coincides with the diameter of crown. Seed dispersalcharacteristics and light requirement may be the reason for different spatial pattern.

O ECR na relação fornecedor x atacadista

Este relatório intitulado “Pesquisa sobre o ECR na Relação Fornecedor X Atacadista no Brasil”, foi desenvolvido pelo Professor Manoel de Andrade e Silva Reis, para o Núcleo de Pesquisas e Projetos (NPP) da Fundação Getúlio Vargas de São Paulo. Inicialmente apresenta alguns conceitos importantes para o entendimento do texto e faz considerações gerais sobre o ECR no Brasil e seu histórico. A principal parte do trabalho é a pesquisa realizada com 10 FORNECEDORES e 20 ATACADISTAS, sendo que 60% dos FORNECEDORES e 40% dos ATACADISTAS responderam aos questionários. As principais conclusões da pesquisa são: 1) Existem sérios obstáculos a transpor para a implantação abrangente do ECR na relação FORNECEDOR X ATACADISTA no Brasil, como: a) O setor ATACADISTA tem um forte preconceito com relação ao ECR, pelo receio de perda de mercado com a implantação de uma nova forma de fazer negócio. Isso evita que seus membros aprofundem o conhecimento das suas estratégias e ferramentas; b) Empresas ATACADISTAS tendem a ser muito fechadas, dificilmente abrindo suas informações para fornecedores, um dos requisitos básicos para a implantação bem sucedida do ECR. Têm também grande rivalidade com seus pares ATACADISTAS. c) O setor ATACADISTA desconfia das verdadeiras intenções dos FORNECEDORES. Há ATACADISTAS que chegaram a implantar uma ferramenta do ECR para teste e desistiram, por sentirem que os FORNECEDORES fogem aos acordos estabelecidos, visando, em especial, preencher as cotas de venda. 2) Na opinião das empresas ATACADISTAS, a sobrevivência setor depende de fatores como: a) Necessidade de uma radical mudança cultural das empresas, de forma a adotar os conceitos de compra e venda necessários no ECR; b) Necessidade de especialização em canais escolhidos e nos produtos característicos dos mesmos, visando tornar-se especialista na sua comercialização; c) Gestão mais adequada dos níveis de estoque; d) Maior agilidade no acesso ao pequeno varejo. 3) Fatores que podem aumentar a atratividade do setor ATACADISTA para os FORNECEDORES: a) Redução do número de transações; b) Redução dos custos pelos elevados volumes; c) Prestação de serviços ao pequeno varejo (devoluções, trocas, promoções, treinamento e incentivos); d) Pulverização das vendas.

Benefício do uso de tecnologia de informação no desempenho empresarial

A Tecnologia de Informação tem sido considerada como um dos componentes mais importantes do ambiente empresarial atual, sendo que as organizações brasileiras têm utilizado ampla e intensamente esta tecnologia tanto em nível estratégico como operacional. Este nível de utilização oferece grandes oportunidades para as empresas que têm sucesso no aproveitamento dos benefícios oferecidos por este uso. Ao mesmo tempo, ele também oferece o desafio de identificar o nível de contribuição que esta tecnologia oferece aos resultados das empresas. Este projeto tem como objetivo principal identificar os benefícios efetivos da utilização de Tecnologia de Informação, por meio da identificação dos vínculos dos benefícios oferecidos pelos projetos e infra-estrutura desta tecnologia com o desempenho empresarial, expressados em indicadores e métricas, mesmo que intangíveis e indiretos. O foco do projeto será um caso de empresa com gastos e investimentos significativos em Tecnologia de Informação. A sua contribuição é aprofundar o conhecimento da administração de Tecnologia de Informação, em especial na sua relação com os resultados empresariais, permitindo criar uma estrutura de análise dos gastos e investimentos nesta tecnologia nas empresas que ofereça subsídios para a sua administração bem sucedida. Este projeto está inserido na linha de pesquisa Administração, Análise e Tecnologia de Informação, nos projetos de pesquisa do Centro de Informática Aplicada (CIA) e está relacionado com outros projetos recentemente desenvolvidos com o apoio do Núcleo de Pesquisa e Publicação (NPP) da FGV-EAESP.

Trends and Variability of AVHRR-Derived NPP in India

In this paper, we estimate the trends and variability in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) over India for the period 1982-2006. We find an increasing trend of 3.9% per decade (r = 0.78, R-2 = 0.61) during the analysis period. A multivariate linear regression of NPP with temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, soil water and surface solar radiation (r = 0.80, R-2 = 0.65) indicates that the increasing trend is partly driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and the consequent CO2 fertilization of the ecosystems. However, human interventions may have also played a key role in the NPP increase: non-forest NPP growth is largely driven by increases in irrigated area and fertilizer use, while forest NPP is influenced by plantation and forest conservation programs. A similar multivariate regression of interannual NPP anomalies with temperature, precipitation, soil water, solar radiation and CO2 anomalies suggests that the interannual variability in NPP is primarily driven by precipitation and temperature variability. Mean seasonal NPP is largest during post-monsoon and lowest during the pre-monsoon period, thereby indicating the importance of soil moisture for vegetation productivity.

Estimation of design basis earthquake using region-specific M-max, for the NPP site at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India

The objective of the paper is to estimate Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) and Operating/Design Basis Earthquake (OBE/DBE) for the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site located at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India. The NPP is located at 12.558 degrees N, 80.175 degrees E and a 500 km circular area around NPP site is considered as `seismic study area' based on past regional earthquake damage distribution. The geology, seismicity and seismotectonics of the study area are studied and the seismotectonic map is prepared showing the seismic sources and the past earthquakes. Earthquake data gathered from many literatures are homogenized and declustered to form a complete earthquake catalogue for the seismic study area. The conventional maximum magnitude of each source is estimated considering the maximum observed magnitude (M-max(obs)) and/or the addition of 0.3 to 0.5 to M-max(obs). In this study maximum earthquake magnitude has been estimated by establishing a region's rupture character based on source length and associated M-max(obs). A final source-specific M-max is selected from the three M-max values by following the logical criteria. To estimate hazard at the NPP site, ten Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) valid for the study area are considered. These GMPEs are ranked based on Log-Likelihood (LLH) values. Top five GMPEs are considered to estimate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the site. Maximum PGA is obtained from three faults and named as vulnerable sources to decide the magnitudes of OBE and SSE. The average and normalized site specific response spectrum is prepared considering three vulnerable sources and further used to establish site-specific design spectrum at NPP site.