Ecological effects of the North Atlantic oscillation

Climatic oscillations as reflected in atmospheric modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may be seen as a proxy for regulating forces in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Our review highlights the variety of climate processes related to the NAO and the diversity in the type of ecological responses that different biological groups can display. Available evidence suggests that the NAO influences ecological dynamics in both marine and terrestrial systems, and its effects may be seen in variation at the individual, population and community levels. The ecological responses to the NAO encompass changes in timing of reproduction, population dynamics, abundance, spatial distribution and interspecific relationships such as competition and predator-prey relationships. This indicates that local responses to large-scale changes may be more subtle than previously suggested. We propose that the NAO effects may be classified as three types: direct, indirect and integrated. Such a classification will help the design and interpretation of analyses attempting to relate ecological changes to the NAO and, possibly, to climate in general.

The response of phytoplankton to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Inter-annual variability in the timing of phytoplankton spring bloom and phytoplankton community structure in the central North Atlantic Ocean was quantified using ocean color data and continuous plankton recorder (CPR) data. This variability was related to the North Atlantic Oscillation using correlation analysis and multivariate auto-regression models. The initiation of the spring bloom derived from CPR phytoplankton color index data is similar to that derived from satellite chlorophyll, and exhibits a nominal correlation with the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The extrapolated spring bloom timing suggested later initiation of blooms in the mid-1980s and earlier initiation of blooms in the 1990s. The climatological phytoplankton community structure in the central North Atlantic is dominated by diatoms, except for a shift in community composition favoring dinoflagellates in August. The ratio of diatoms to total phytoplankton abundance and the ratio of dinoflagellates to total phytoplankton abundance are both closely correlated with the NAO and SST. The extended time series of phytoplankton community structure between 1985 and 2009, deduced from the time series of SST and NAO over the same interval, showed a decadal shift away from diatoms towards dinoflagellates. The linkages between the NAO, and changes in stratification and phytoplankton processes occur over a larger scale than previously observed.

Update on the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Calanus finmarchicus

The relationship between climate, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the calanoid copepod Calanus finmarchicus has been extensively studied. The correlation between NAO and C. finmarchicus has broken down (post-1995). In the present study, we revisit the relationship between C. finmarchicus and the NAO. Our reanalysis shows that previous treatment of this data did not take into account 2 aspects of both the C. finmarchicus and NAO index time-series: (1) the presence of significant trends and (2) significant autocorrelation. Our analysis suggests that previously reported relationships between NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance can be explained largely by the trends in both data series. Removing the trend from both time-series resulted in a decrease in the amount of C. finmarchicus abundance variability explained by the NAO. Trend removal eliminated the autocorrelation from the NAO time-series, but not from the C. finmarchicus time-series. Partial autocorrelation analysis showed that the autocorrelation present in the C. finmarchicus time-series is only found at a lag of 1 yr, suggesting strong, year-to-year connectivity in this population. We included the lagged C. finmarchicus abundance into a regression with the NAO and found that C. finmarchicus variability is explained by the previous year’s abundance and, to a much smaller extent, by NAO variability. Limiting the time-series to the most recent 22 yr period (1981 to 2002) showed that the NAO is no longer correlated to C. finmarchicus abundance, and the autocorrelation in the C. finmarchicus abundance series also appears to be weakening.

Variability in phytoplankton community structure in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation and implications for organic carbon flux

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a major mode of variability in the North Atlantic, dominating atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Here, we examine the phytoplankton community-structure response to the NAO using the Continuous Plankton Recorder data set. In the Northeast Atlantic, in the transition region between the gyres, variability in the relative influence of subpolar or subtropical-like conditions is reflected in the physical environment. During positive NAO periods, the region experiences subpolar-like conditions, with strong wind stress and deep mixed layers. In contrast, during negative NAO periods, the region shifts toward more subtropical-like conditions. Diatoms dominate the phytoplankton community in positive NAO periods, whereas in negative NAO periods, dinoflagellates outcompete diatoms. The implications for interannual variability in deep ocean carbon flux are examined using data from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain time-series station. Contrary to expectations, carbon flux to 3000 m is enhanced when diatoms are outcompeted by other phytoplankton functional types. Additionally, highest carbon fluxes were not associated with an increase in biomineral content, which implies that ballasting is not playing a dominant role in controlling the flux of material to the deep ocean in this region. In transition zones between gyre systems, phytoplankton populations can change in response to forcing induced by opposing NAO phases.

On sea level change in the North Sea influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation: local and remote steric effects

In this study, contributions of both local steric and remote baroclinic effects (i.e., steric variations external to the region of interest) to the inter-annual variability of winter sea level in the North Sea, with respect to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the period of 1953–2010 are investigated. On inter-annual time scales in this period, the NAO is significantly correlated to sea level variations in the North Sea only in the winter months (December–March), while its correlation to sea temperature over much of the North Sea is only significant in January and February. The discrepancy in sea level between observations and barotropic tide and surge models forced by tides and local atmospheric forcing, i.e., local atmospheric pressure effects and winds, in the present study are found to be consistent with previous studies. In the North Sea, local thermosteric effects caused by thermal expansion play a minor role on winter-mean NAO related sea level variability compared with atmospheric forcing. This is particularly true in the southeastern North Sea where water depths are mostly less than 25 m. Our calculations demonstrate that the discrepancy can be mostly explained by remote baroclinic effects, which appear as water mass exchanges on the continental shelf and are therefore only apparent in ocean bottom pressure. In the North Sea, NAO related sea level variations seem to be a hybrid of barotropic and baroclinic processes. Hence, they can only be adequately modelled with three-dimensional baroclinic ocean models that include contributions of baroclinic effects and large-scale atmospheric forcing external to the region of interest.

Sea-level changes in Iceland and the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last half millennium

We present a new, diatom-based sea-level reconstruction for Iceland spanning the last -500 years, and investigate the possible mechanisms driving the sea-level changes. A sea-level reconstruction from near the Icelandic low pressure system is important as it can improve understanding of ocean-atmosphere forcing on North Atlantic sea-level variability over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Our reconstruction is from Viarhólmi salt marsh in Snæfellsnes in western Iceland, a site from where we previously obtained a 2000-yr record based upon less precise sea-level indicators (salt-marsh foraminifera). The 20th century part of our record is corroborated by tide-gauge data from Reykjavik. Overall, the new reconstruction shows ca0.6m rise of relative sea level during the last four centuries, of which ca0.2m occurred during the 20th century. Low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level variability is super-imposed on the pre-industrial long-term rising trend of 0.65m per 1000 years. Most of the relative sea-level rise occurred in three distinct periods: AD 1620-1650, AD 1780-1850 and AD 1950-2000, with maximum rates of ~3±2mm/yr during the latter two of these periods. Maximum rates were achieved at the end of large shifts (from negative to positive) of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index as reconstructed from proxy data. Instrumental data demonstrate that a strong and sustained positive NAO (a deep Icelandic Low) generates setup on the west coast of Iceland resulting in rising sea levels. There is no strong evidence that the periods of rapid sea-level rise were caused by ocean mass changes, glacial isostatic adjustment or regional steric change. We suggest that wind forcing plays an important role in causing regional-scale coastal sea-level variability in the North Atlantic, not only on (multi-)annual timescales, but also on multi-decadal to centennial timescales.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Grass Pollen Counts in Europe

Relationships between temporal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and grass pollen counts at 13 sites in Europe, ranging from Córdoba in the South-West and Turku in the North-East, were studied in order to determine spatial differences in the amount of influence exerted by the NAO on the timing and magnitude of grass pollen seasons. There were a number of significant (p<0.05) relationships between the NAO and start dates of the grass pollen season at the 13 pollen-monitoring sites. The strongest associations were generally recorded near to the Atlantic coast. Several significant correlations also existed between winter averages of the NAO and grass pollen season severity. Traditional methods for predicting the start or magnitude of grass pollen seasons have centred on the use of local meteorological observations, but this study has shown the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability like the NAO.

The impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the atmospheric pollutant variability in the Porto region, Portugal

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important large-scale atmospheric circulation that influences the European countries climate. This study evaluated NAO impact in air quality in Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), Portugal, for the period 2002-2006. NAO, air pollutants and meteorological data were statistically analyzed. All data were obtained from PMA Weather Station, PMA Air Quality Stations and NOAA analysis. Two statistical methods were applied in different time scale : principal component and correlation coefficient. Annual time scale, using multivariate analysis (PCA, principal component analysis), were applied in order to identified positive and significant association between air pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO and NO2, with NAO. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient using seasonal time scale were also applied to the same data. The results of PCA analysis present a general negative significant association between the total precipitation and NAO, in Factor 1 and 2 (explaining around 70% of the variance), presented in the years of 2002, 2004 and 2005. During the same years, some air pollutants (such as PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx and CO) present also a positive association with NAO. The O3 shows as well a positive association with NAP during 2002 and 2004, at 2nd Factor, explaining 30% of the variance. From the seasonal analysis using correlation coefficient, it was found significant correlation between PM10 (0.72., p<0.05, in 2002), PM2.5 (0 74, p<0.05, in 2004), and SO2 (0.78, p<0.01, in 2002) with NAO during March-December (no winter period) period. Significant associations between air pollutants and NAO were also verified in the winter period (December to April) mainly with ozone (2005, r=-0.55, p.<0.01). Once that human health and hospital morbidities may be affected by air pollution, the results suggest that NAO forecast can be an important tool to prevent them, in the Iberian Peninsula and specially Portugal.

A new Rossby Wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper proposes the hypothesis that the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) arises as a result of variations in the occurrence of upper-level Rossby wave–breaking events over the North Atlantic. These events lead to synoptic situations similar to midlatitude blocking that are referred to as high-latitude blocking episodes. A positive NAO is envisaged as being a description of periods in which these episodes are infrequent and can be considered as a basic, unblocked situation. A negative NAO is a description of periods in which episodes occur frequently. A similar, but weaker, relationship exists between wave breaking over the Pacific and the west Pacific pattern. Evidence is given to support this hypothesis by using a two-dimensional potential-vorticity-based index to identify wave breaking at various latitudes. This is applied to Northern Hemisphere winter data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and the events identified are then related to the NAO. Certain dynamical precursors are identified that appear to increase the likelihood of wave breaking. These suggest mechanisms by which variability in the tropical Pacific, and in the stratosphere, could affect the NAO.

Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales?

Previous studies have argued that the autocorrelation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index provides evidence of unusually persistent intraseasonal dynamics. We demonstrate that the autocorrelation on intraseasonal time-scales of 10–30 days is sensitive to the presence of interannual variability, part of which arises from the sampling of intraseasonal variability and the remainder of which we consider to be “externally forced”. Modelling the intraseasonal variability of the NAO as a red noise process we estimate, for winter, ~70% of the interannual variability is externally forced, whereas for summer sampling accounts for almost all of the interannual variability. Correcting for the externally forced interannual variability has a major impact on the autocorrelation function for winter. When externally forced interannual variability is taken into account the intrinsic persistence of the NAO is very similar in summer and winter (~5 days). This finding has implications for understanding the dynamics of the NAO.