Single patient (n-of-1) trials with binary treatment preference

The use of a fully parametric Bayesian method for analysing single patient trials based on the notion of treatment 'preference' is described. This Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach allows for full parameter uncertainty, use of prior information and the modelling of individual and patient sub-group structures. It provides updated probabilistic results for individual patients, and groups of patients with the same medical condition, as they are sequentially enrolled into individualized trials using the same medication alternatives. Two clinically interpretable criteria for determining a patient's response are detailed and illustrated using data from a previously published paper under two different prior information scenarios. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Valerian does not appear to reduce symptoms for patients with chronic insomnia in general practice using a series of randomised n-of-I trials

Objectives: To investigate the effectiveness of valerian for the management of chronic insomnia in general practice. Design: Valerian versus placebo in a series of n-of-1 trials, in Queensland, Australia. Results: Of 42 enrolled patients, 24 (57%) had sufficient data for inclusion into the n-of-1 analysis. Response to valerian was fair for 23 (96%) participants evaluating their 'energy level in the previous day' but poor or modest for all 24 (100%) participants' response to 'total sleep time' and for 23 (96%) participants' response to 'number of night awakenings' and 'morning refreshment'. As a group, the proportion of treatment successes ranged from 0.35 (95% CI 0.23, 0.47) to 0.55 (95% CI 0.43, 0.67) for the six elicited outcome sleep variables. There was no significant difference in the number (P = 0.06), distribution (P = 1.00) or severity (P = 0.46) of side effects between valerian and placebo treatments. Conclusions: Valerian was not shown to be appreciably better than placebo in promoting sleep or sleep-related factors for any individual patient or for all patients as a group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An n-of-1 trial service in clinical practice: Testing the effectiveness of stimulants for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

OBJECTIVE. We sought to describe the clinical use of n-of-1 trials for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in publicly and privately funded family and specialized pediatric practice in Australia. METHODS. We used a within-patient randomized, double-blind, crossover comparison of stimulant (dexamphetamine or methylphenidate) versus placebo or alternative stimulant using 3 pairs of treatment periods. Trials were conducted from a central location using mail and telephone communication, with local supervision by the patients' clinicians. PATIENTS. Our study population included children with clinically diagnosed attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder who were aged 5 to 16 years and previously stabilized on an optimal dose of stimulant. They were selected because treatment effectiveness was uncertain. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES. Our measures included number of patients recruited, number of doctors who used the service, geographic spread, completion rates, response rate, and post-n-of-1 trial decisions. RESULTS. Forty-five doctors across Australia requested 108 n-of-1 trials, of which 86 were completed. In 69 drug-versus-placebo comparisons, 29 children responded better to stimulant than placebo. Immediately posttrial, 19 of 25 drug-versus-placebo responders stayed on the same stimulant, and 13 of 24 nonresponders ceased or switched stimulants. In 40 of 63 for which data were available, posttrial management was consistent with the trial results. For all types of n-of-1 trials, management changed for 28 of 64 children for whom information was available. DISCUSSION. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder n-of-1 trials can be implemented successfully by mail and telephone communication. This type of trial can be valuable in clarifying treatment effect when it is uncertain, and in this series, they had a noticeable impact on short-term management.

Glycemic control and macrovascular disease in types 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus: Meta-analysis of randomized trials

Uncertainty persists concerning the effect of improved long-term glycemic control on macrovascular disease in diabetes mellitus (DM).

Registration of clinical trials: Challenges for global regulation

In 2004 the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) issued a statement indicating that from 1 July 2005 registration in a publicly accessible trials registry would be a condition of publication in an ICMJE member journal. The World Health Organisation is coordinating the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) as a means of providing a standardised framework for registration. This article considers the practical challenges and opportunities that arise from these developments and considers the relevance of trial registration for women and minorities and for developing countries.

After 10 years of clinical trials with liraglutide, do we know whether it is beneficial in diabetes?

Type 2 diabetes remains an escalating world-wide problem, despite a range of treatments. The revelation that insulin secretion is under the control of a gut hormone, glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), led to a new paradigm in the management of type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide is a long acting GLP-1 receptor agonist used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes. The review considers the clinical trials with liraglutide. There are many comparator trials between liraglutide and other medicines for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, and these trials have shown that liraglutide lowers HbA1c and body weight, and is well tolerated. A large cardiovascular safety trial with liraglutide is presently being undertaken. After 10 years of clinical trials with liraglutide, we do not know whether liraglutide has cardiovascular safety in subjects with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. Although this is not a requirement for registration by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), in my opinion, they should reconsider this. We also do not presently know whether liraglutide has any beneficial effects on clinical cardiovascular outcomes.

Role of γ1 Laminin and Its KDI Peptide in the Central Nervous System

Since the 1980 s, laminin-1 has been linked to regeneration of the central nervous system (CNS) and promotion of neuronal migration and axon guidance during CNS development. In this thesis, we clarify the role of γ1 laminin and its KDI tripeptide in development of human embryonic spinal cord, in regeneration of adult rat spinal cord injury (SCI), in kainic acid-induced neuronal death, and in the spinal cord tissue of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We demonstrated that γ1 laminin together with α1, β1, and β3 laminins localize at the floor plate region in human embryonic spinal cord. This localization of γ1 laminin is in spatial and temporal correlation with development of the spinal cord and indicates that γ1 laminin may participate in commissural axon guidance during the embryonic development of the human CNS. With in vitro studies using the Matrigel culture system, we demonstrated that the KDI tripeptide of γ1 laminin provides a chemotrophic guidance cue for neurites of the human embryonic dorsal spinal cord, verifying the functional ability of γ1 laminin to guide commissural axons. Results from our experimental SCI model demonstrate that the KDI tripeptide enhanced functional recovery and promoted neurite outgrowth across the mechanically injured area in the adult rat spinal cord. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the KDI tripeptide as a non-competitive inhibitor of the ionotropic glutamate receptors can provide when administered in adequate concentrations an effective method to protect neurons against glutamate-induced excitotoxic cell death. Human postmortem samples were used to study motor neuron disease, ALS (IV), and the study revealed that in human ALS spinal cord, γ1 laminin was selectively over-expressed by reactive astrocytes, and that this over-expression may correlate with disease severity. The multiple ways by which γ1 laminin and its KDI tripeptide provide neurotrophic protection and enhance neuronal viability suggest that the over-expression of γ1 laminin may be a glial attempt to provide protection for neurons against ALS pathology. The KDI tripeptide is effective therapeutically thus far in animal models only. However, because KDI containing γ1 laminin exists naturally in the human CNS, KDI therapies are unlikely to be toxic or allergenic. Results from our animal models are encouraging, with no toxic side-effects detected even at high concentrations, but the ultimate confirmation can be achieved only after clinical trials. More research is still needed until the KDI tripeptide is refined into a clinically applicable method to treat various neurological disorders.

Conflicts of Interest and Outcomes of Cardiovascular Trials.

Conflicts of interests have long been recognized as potential sources of influence in the conduct and reporting of clinical trials. This controversy was again rekindled after the publication of the latest statin guidelines and a series of studies regarding competing interests in leading medical journals. We investigate the association between declared author conflicts and the outcomes of large cardiovascular trials. We searched the Medline (PubMed) database to identify "phase 2" and "phase 3" clinical trials using the search term "cardiovascular" over the past decade using "10 years" as the filter. We perceived the competing interest as present regardless of the nature such as consulting fees, honoraria, travel imbursements, stock holding, and employment. Of the 699 titles retrieved, 114 studies met the inclusion criteria. Nearly 80% of studies had at least a single author with competing interests. The 114 studies had a total of 1,433 investigators, of which 725 had declared conflicts of interests (50.6%). A total of 66 studies (58%) had half or >50 percent of investigators who had some conflicts of interests. Of these studies, 54 studies had favorable outcomes and only 12 had unfavorable outcomes (p <0.001). Among the type of competing interests, consulting or personal fees was the most common present in 58 investigators (51%). This was followed by research grants present in 55 the researchers (48%). Among 25 (22%) studies, at least one investigator reported stakes in the industry, of which only 2 studies had unfavorable outcomes for the intervention being investigated. Just 1 of the 25 clinical trials with a sample size of >1,000 had no investigators with competing interests. In conclusion, authors conflicts are associated with favorable outcomes in cardiovascular outcome trials.

Effects of n-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids on depressed mood: Systematic review of published trials.

Background: Greater dietary intakes of n–3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n–3 PUFAs) may be beneficial for depressed mood. Objective: This study aimed to systematically review all published randomized controlled trials investigating the effects of n–3 PUFAs on depressed mood. Design: Eight medical and health databases were searched over all years of records until June 2006 for trials that exposed participants to n–3 PUFAs or fish, measured depressed mood, were conducted on human participants, and included a comparison group. Results: Eighteen randomized controlled trials were identified; 12 were included in a meta-analysis. The pooled standardized difference in mean outcome (fixed-effects model) was 0.13 SDs (95% CI: 0.01, 0.25) in those receiving n–3 PUFAs compared with placebo, with strong evidence of heterogeneity (I2 = 79%, P <0.001). The presence of funnel plot asymmetry suggested that publication bias was the likely source of heterogeneity. Sensitivity analyses that excluded one large trial increased the effect size estimates but did not reduce heterogeneity. Metaregression provided some evidence that the effect was stronger in trials involving populations with major depression—the difference in the effect size estimates was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.05, 1.41; P = 0.04), but there was still considerable heterogeneity when trials that involved populations with major depression were pooled separately (I2 = 72%, P <0.001). Conclusions: Trial evidence that examines the effects of n–3 PUFAs on depressed mood is limited and is difficult to summarize and evaluate because of considerable heterogeneity. The evidence available provides little support for the use of n–3 PUFAs to improve depressed mood. Larger trials with adequate power to detect clinically important benefits are required.

An analysis of protocols and publications suggested that most discontinuations of clinical trials were not based on preplanned interim analyses or stopping rules.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the frequency of interim analyses, stopping rules, and data safety and monitoring boards (DSMBs) in protocols of randomized controlled trials (RCTs); to examine these features across different reasons for trial discontinuation; and to identify discrepancies in reporting between protocols and publications. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data from a cohort of RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. RESULTS: Of 894 RCT protocols, 289 prespecified interim analyses (32.3%), 153 stopping rules (17.1%), and 257 DSMBs (28.7%). Overall, 249 of 894 RCTs (27.9%) were prematurely discontinued; mostly due to reasons such as poor recruitment, administrative reasons, or unexpected harm. Forty-six of 249 RCTs (18.4%) were discontinued due to early benefit or futility; of those, 37 (80.4%) were stopped outside a formal interim analysis or stopping rule. Of 515 published RCTs, there were discrepancies between protocols and publications for interim analyses (21.1%), stopping rules (14.4%), and DSMBs (19.6%). CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of RCT protocols did not consider interim analyses, stopping rules, or DSMBs. Most RCTs discontinued for early benefit or futility were stopped without a prespecified mechanism. When assessing trial manuscripts, journals should require access to the protocol.

How to assess the external validity of therapeutic trials: a conceptual approach

Background External validity of study results is an important issue from a clinical point of view. From a methodological point of view, however, the concept of external validity is more complex than it seems to be at first glance. Methods Methodological review to address the concept of external validity. Results External validity refers to the question whether results are generalizable to persons other than the population in the original study. The only formal way to establish the external validity would be to repeat the study for that specific target population. We propose a three-way approach for assessing the external validity for specified target populations. (i) The study population might not be representative for the eligibility criteria that were intended. It should be addressed whether the study population differs from the intended source population with respect to characteristics that influence outcome. (ii) The target population will, by definition, differ from the study population with respect to geographical, temporal and ethnical conditions. Pondering external validity means asking the question whether these differences may influence study results. (iii) It should be assessed whether the study's conclusions can be generalized to target populations that do not meet all the eligibility criteria. Conclusion Judging the external validity of study results cannot be done by applying given eligibility criteria to a single target population. Rather, it is a complex reflection in which prior knowledge, statistical considerations, biological plausibility and eligibility criteria all have place.