Multifractality and long-range dependence of asset returns: the scaling behavior of the Markov-switching multifractal model with lognormal volatility components

In this paper, we consider daily financial data from various sources (stock market indices, foreign exchange rates and bonds) and analyze their multiscaling properties by estimating the parameters of a Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model with Lognormal volatility components. In order to see how well estimated models capture the temporal dependency of the empirical data, we estimate and compare (generalized) Hurst exponents for both empirical data and simulated MSM models. In general, the Lognormal MSM models generate "apparent" long memory in good agreement with empirical scaling provided that one uses sufficiently many volatility components. In comparison with a Binomial MSM specification [11], results are almost identical. This suggests that a parsimonious discrete specification is flexible enough and the gain from adopting the continuous Lognormal distribution is very limited.

Multifractality, stickiness, and recurrence-time statistics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Long memory and multifractality:a joint test

The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Our test addresses this issue by jointly estimating long memory and multifractality. The estimation and test procedures are applied to exchange rate data for 12 currencies. Among the nested model specifications that are investigated, in 11 out of 12 cases, daily returns are most appropriately characterized by a variant of the MMAR that applies a multifractal time-deformation process to NIID returns. There is no evidence of long memory.

Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market

Tests for random walk behaviour in the Italian stock market are presented, based on an investigation of the fractal properties of the log return series for the Mibtel index. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Critical values for the test statistics are generated using Monte Carlo simulations of random Gaussian innovations. Evidence is reported of multifractality, and the departure from random walk behaviour is statistically significant on standard criteria. The observed pattern is attributed primarily to fat tails in the return probability distribution, associated with volatility clustering in returns measured over various time scales. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long memory and multifractality:a joint test

The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Our test addresses this issue by jointly estimating long memory and multifractality. The estimation and test procedures are applied to exchange rate data for 12 currencies. In 11 cases, the exchange rate returns are accurately described by compounding a NIID series with a multifractal time-deformation process. There is no evidence of long memory.

Multifractal characterisation and analysis of complex networks

Complex networks have been studied extensively due to their relevance to many real-world systems such as the world-wide web, the internet, biological and social systems. During the past two decades, studies of such networks in different fields have produced many significant results concerning their structures, topological properties, and dynamics. Three well-known properties of complex networks are scale-free degree distribution, small-world effect and self-similarity. The search for additional meaningful properties and the relationships among these properties is an active area of current research. This thesis investigates a newer aspect of complex networks, namely their multifractality, which is an extension of the concept of selfsimilarity. The first part of the thesis aims to confirm that the study of properties of complex networks can be expanded to a wider field including more complex weighted networks. Those real networks that have been shown to possess the self-similarity property in the existing literature are all unweighted networks. We use the proteinprotein interaction (PPI) networks as a key example to show that their weighted networks inherit the self-similarity from the original unweighted networks. Firstly, we confirm that the random sequential box-covering algorithm is an effective tool to compute the fractal dimension of complex networks. This is demonstrated on the Homo sapiens and E. coli PPI networks as well as their skeletons. Our results verify that the fractal dimension of the skeleton is smaller than that of the original network due to the shortest distance between nodes is larger in the skeleton, hence for a fixed box-size more boxes will be needed to cover the skeleton. Then we adopt the iterative scoring method to generate weighted PPI networks of five species, namely Homo sapiens, E. coli, yeast, C. elegans and Arabidopsis Thaliana. By using the random sequential box-covering algorithm, we calculate the fractal dimensions for both the original unweighted PPI networks and the generated weighted networks. The results show that self-similarity is still present in generated weighted PPI networks. This implication will be useful for our treatment of the networks in the third part of the thesis. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the multifractal behavior of different complex networks. Fractals such as the Cantor set, the Koch curve and the Sierspinski gasket are homogeneous since these fractals consist of a geometrical figure which repeats on an ever-reduced scale. Fractal analysis is a useful method for their study. However, real-world fractals are not homogeneous; there is rarely an identical motif repeated on all scales. Their singularity may vary on different subsets; implying that these objects are multifractal. Multifractal analysis is a useful way to systematically characterize the spatial heterogeneity of both theoretical and experimental fractal patterns. However, the tools for multifractal analysis of objects in Euclidean space are not suitable for complex networks. In this thesis, we propose a new box covering algorithm for multifractal analysis of complex networks. This algorithm is demonstrated in the computation of the generalized fractal dimensions of some theoretical networks, namely scale-free networks, small-world networks, random networks, and a kind of real networks, namely PPI networks of different species. Our main finding is the existence of multifractality in scale-free networks and PPI networks, while the multifractal behaviour is not confirmed for small-world networks and random networks. As another application, we generate gene interactions networks for patients and healthy people using the correlation coefficients between microarrays of different genes. Our results confirm the existence of multifractality in gene interactions networks. This multifractal analysis then provides a potentially useful tool for gene clustering and identification. The third part of the thesis aims to investigate the topological properties of networks constructed from time series. Characterizing complicated dynamics from time series is a fundamental problem of continuing interest in a wide variety of fields. Recent works indicate that complex network theory can be a powerful tool to analyse time series. Many existing methods for transforming time series into complex networks share a common feature: they define the connectivity of a complex network by the mutual proximity of different parts (e.g., individual states, state vectors, or cycles) of a single trajectory. In this thesis, we propose a new method to construct networks of time series: we define nodes by vectors of a certain length in the time series, and weight of edges between any two nodes by the Euclidean distance between the corresponding two vectors. We apply this method to build networks for fractional Brownian motions, whose long-range dependence is characterised by their Hurst exponent. We verify the validity of this method by showing that time series with stronger correlation, hence larger Hurst exponent, tend to have smaller fractal dimension, hence smoother sample paths. We then construct networks via the technique of horizontal visibility graph (HVG), which has been widely used recently. We confirm a known linear relationship between the Hurst exponent of fractional Brownian motion and the fractal dimension of the corresponding HVG network. In the first application, we apply our newly developed box-covering algorithm to calculate the generalized fractal dimensions of the HVG networks of fractional Brownian motions as well as those for binomial cascades and five bacterial genomes. The results confirm the monoscaling of fractional Brownian motion and the multifractality of the rest. As an additional application, we discuss the resilience of networks constructed from time series via two different approaches: visibility graph and horizontal visibility graph. Our finding is that the degree distribution of VG networks of fractional Brownian motions is scale-free (i.e., having a power law) meaning that one needs to destroy a large percentage of nodes before the network collapses into isolated parts; while for HVG networks of fractional Brownian motions, the degree distribution has exponential tails, implying that HVG networks would not survive the same kind of attack.

Fractal and multifractal properties of a family of fractal networks

In this work, we study the fractal and multifractal properties of a family of fractal networks introduced by Gallos et al (2007 Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 104 7746). In this fractal network model, there is a parameter e which is between 0 and 1, and allows for tuning the level of fractality in the network. Here we examine the multifractal behavior of these networks, the dependence relationship of the fractal dimension and the multifractal parameters on parameter e. First, we find that the empirical fractal dimensions of these networks obtained by our program coincide with the theoretical formula given by Song et al (2006 Nature Phys. 2 275). Then from the shape of the τ(q) and D(q) curves, we find the existence of multifractality in these networks. Last, we find that there exists a linear relationship between the average information dimension 〈D(1)〉 and the parameter e.

Topological properties and fractal analysis of a recurrence network constructed from fractional Brownian motions

Many studies have shown that we can gain additional information on time series by investigating their accompanying complex networks. In this work, we investigate the fundamental topological and fractal properties of recurrence networks constructed from fractional Brownian motions (FBMs). First, our results indicate that the constructed recurrence networks have exponential degree distributions; the average degree exponent 〈λ〉 increases first and then decreases with the increase of Hurst index H of the associated FBMs; the relationship between H and 〈λ〉 can be represented by a cubic polynomial function. We next focus on the motif rank distribution of recurrence networks, so that we can better understand networks at the local structure level. We find the interesting superfamily phenomenon, i.e., the recurrence networks with the same motif rank pattern being grouped into two superfamilies. Last, we numerically analyze the fractal and multifractal properties of recurrence networks. We find that the average fractal dimension 〈dB〉 of recurrence networks decreases with the Hurst index H of the associated FBMs, and their dependence approximately satisfies the linear formula 〈dB〉≈2-H, which means that the fractal dimension of the associated recurrence network is close to that of the graph of the FBM. Moreover, our numerical results of multifractal analysis show that the multifractality exists in these recurrence networks, and the multifractality of these networks becomes stronger at first and then weaker when the Hurst index of the associated time series becomes larger from 0.4 to 0.95. In particular, the recurrence network with the Hurst index H=0.5 possesses the strongest multifractality. In addition, the dependence relationships of the average information dimension 〈D(1)〉 and the average correlation dimension 〈D(2)〉 on the Hurst index H can also be fitted well with linear functions. Our results strongly suggest that the recurrence network inherits the basic characteristic and the fractal nature of the associated FBM series.

Underlying scaling relationships between solar activity and geomagnetic activity revealed by multifractal analyses

his paper identifies some scaling relationships between solar activity and geomagnetic activity. We examine the scaling properties of hourly data for two geomagnetic indices (ap and AE), two solar indices (solar X-rays Xl and solar flux F10.7), and two inner heliospheric indices (ion density Ni and flow speed Vs) over the period 1995–2001 by the universal multifractal approach and the traditional multifractal analysis. We found that the universal multifractal model (UMM) provides a good fit to the empirical K(q) and τ(q) curves of these time series. The estimated values of the Lévy index α in the UMM indicate that multifractality exists in the time series for ap, AE, Xl, and Ni, while those for F10.7 and Vs are monofractal. The estimated values of the nonconservation parameter H of this model confirm that these time series are conservative which indicate that the mean value of the process is constant for varying resolution. Additionally, the multifractal K(q) and τ(q) curves, and the estimated values of the sparseness parameter C1 of the UMM indicate that there are three pairs of indices displaying similar scaling properties, namely ap and Xl, AE and Ni, and F10.7 and Vs. The similarity in the scaling properties of pairs (ap,Xl) and (AE,Ni) suggests that ap and Xl, AE and Ni are better correlated—in terms of scaling—than previous thought, respectively. But our results still cannot be used to advance forecasting of ap and AE by Xl and Ni, respectively, due to some reasons

Multifractal analysis, a method to investigate the morphology of materials

Using the multifractal formalism, we discuss the results obtained to characterized the morphology of polymer alloys and granular discontinuous metallic thin films. In the first case we have found a correlation between the multifractality and the mechanical properties of the alloys. In the second case, we have found that it is possible to measure the differences between the morphology of thin films induced by a growth process on a subtrate and that of percolation clusters of the classical theory of percolation.

NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

Intermittent and Scale-Invariant Intensity Fluctuations in Hot Coronal Loops

ABSTRACT BODY: To resolve outstanding questions on heating of coronal loops, we study intensity fluctuations in inter-moss portions of active region core loops as observed with AIA/SDO. The 94Å fluctuations (Figure 1) have structure on timescales shorter than radiative and conductive cooling times. Each of several strong 94Å brightenings is followed after ~8 min by a broader peak in the cooler 335Å emission. This indicates that we see emission from the hot component of the 94Å contribution function. No hotter contributions appear, and we conclude that the 94Å intensity can be used as a proxy for energy injection into the loop plasma. The probability density function of the observed 94Å intensity has 'heavy tails' that approach zero more slowly than the tails of a normal distribution. Hence, large fluctuations dominate the behavior of the system. The resulting 'intermittence' is associated with power-law or exponential scaling of the related variables, and these in turn are associated with turbulent phenomena. The intensity plots in Figure 1 resemble multifractal time series, which are common to various forms of turbulent energy dissipation. In these systems a single fractal dimension is insufficient to describe the dynamics and instead there is a spectrum of fractal dimensions that quantify the self-similar properties. Figure 2 shows the multifractal spectrum from our data to be invariant over timescales from 24 s to 6.4 min. We compare these results to outputs from theoretical energy dissipation models based on MHD turbulence, and in some cases we find substantial agreement, in terms of intermittence, multifractality and scale invariance. Figure 1. Time traces of 94A intensity in the inter-moss portions of four AR core loops. Figure 2. Multifractal spectra showing timescale invariance. The four cases of Figure 1 are included.