Statistical Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll-a Concentration Patterns in the Gulf of Tadjourah (Djibouti)

The sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL-a) were analysed in the Gulf of Tadjourah from two set of 8-day composite satellite data, respectively from 2008 to 2012 and from 2005 to 2011. A singular spectrum analysis (SSA) shows that the annual cycle of SST is strong (74.3% of variance) and consists of warming (April-October) and cooling (November-March) of about 2.5C than the long-term average. The semi-annual cycle captures only 14.6% of temperature variance and emphasises the drop of SST during July-August. Similarly, the annual cycle of CHL-a (29.7% of variance) depicts high CHL-a from June to October and low concentration from November to May. In addition, the first spatial empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of SST (93% of variance) shows that the seasonal warming/cooling is in phase across the whole study area but the southeastern part always remaining warmer or cooler. In contrast to the SST, the first EOF of CHL-a (54.1% of variance) indicates the continental shelf in phase opposition with the offshore area in winter during which the CHL-a remains sequestrated in the coastal area particularly in the south-east and in the Ghoubet Al-Kharab Bay. Inversely during summer, higher CHL-a quantities appear in the offshore waters. In order to investigate processes generating these patterns, a multichannel spectrum analysis was applied to a set of oceanic (SST, CHL-a) and atmospheric parameters (wind speed, air temperature and air specific humidity). This analysis shows that the SST is well correlated to the atmospheric parameters at an annual scale. The windowed cross correlation indicates that this correlation is significant only from October to May. During this period, the warming was related to the solar heating of the surface water when the wind is low (April-May and October) while the cooling (November-March) was linked to the strong and cold North-East winds and to convective mixing. The summer drop in SST followed by a peak of CHL-a, seems strongly correlated to the upwelling. The second EOF modes of SST and CHL-a explain respectively 1.3% and 5% of the variance and show an east-west gradient during winter that is reversed during summer. This work showed that the seasonal signals have a wide spatial influence and dominate the variability of the SST and CHL-a while the east-west gradient are specific for the Gulf of Tadjourah and seem induced by the local wind modulated by the topography.

The near-AD 1600 multi-proxy puzzle

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A varve chronology with annual resolution (AD 1117-1992) has been developed recently for Santa Barbara Basin. Varve thickness and water content show an exponential trend consistent with expected patterns in the presence of sediment compaction over time. Annual varve thickness was decomposed into orthogonal components using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to identify and retrieve inter-decadal oscillations. ... This suggests a connection with global-scale decadal cycles identified in the subtropical Pacific gyre circulation and, possibly, with solar-driven phenomena. The near-1600 AD event coincides with (a) a similarly sudden change of state in nearby Santa Monica Basin that triggered the onset of anoxic conditions and the preservation of laminated sediments, (b) an extreme drought over the American Southwest, (c) a transformation of the age structure in a number of forest populations throughout Arizona and New Mexico. Total organic carbon burial flux in Santa Barbara Basin varves also shows a marked change after AD 1600. A possible climatic link is proposed that involves pathways for moisture transport in the Southwest at decadal and longer time scales.

Interannual and interdecadal oscillations in hydrological variables: Sources and modeling of the persistence in the Elbe River Basin

Wenn man die Existenz von physikalischen Mechanismen ignoriert, die für die Struktur hydrologischer Zeitreihen verantwortlich sind, kann das zu falschen Schlussfolgerungen bzgl. des Vorhandenseins möglicher Gedächtnis (memory) -Effekte, d.h. von Persistenz, führen. Die hier vorgelegte Doktorarbeit spürt der niedrigfrequenten klimatischen Variabilität innerhalb den hydrologischen Zyklus nach und bietet auf dieser "Reise" neue Einsichten in die Transformation der charakteristischen Eigenschaften von Zeitreihen mit einem Langzeitgedächtnis. Diese Studie vereint statistische Methoden der Zeitreihenanalyse mit empirisch-basierten Modelltechniken, um operative Modelle zu entwickeln, die in der Lage sind (1) die Dynamik des Abflusses zu modellieren, (2) sein zukünftiges Verhalten zu prognostizieren und (3) die Abflusszeitreihen an unbeobachteten Stellen abzuschätzen. Als solches präsentiert die hier vorgelegte Dissertation eine ausführliche Untersuchung zu den Ursachen der niedrigfrequenten Variabilität von hydrologischen Zeitreihen im deutschen Teil des Elbe-Einzugsgebietes, den Folgen dieser Variabilität und den physikalisch basierten Reaktionen von Oberflächen- und Grundwassermodellen auf die niedrigfrequenten Niederschlags-Eingangsganglinien. Die Doktorarbeit gliedert sich wie folgt: In Kapitel 1 wird als Hintergrundinformation das Hurst Phänomen beschrieben und ein kurzer Rückblick auf diesbezügliche Studien gegeben. Das Kapitel 2 diskutiert den Einfluss der Präsenz von niedrigfrequenten periodischen Zeitreihen auf die Zuverlässigkeit verschiedener Hurst-Parameter-Schätztechniken. Kapitel 3 korreliert die niedrigfrequente Niederschlagsvariabilität mit dem Index der Nord-Atlantischen Ozillations (NAO). Kapitel 4-6 sind auf den deutschen Teil des Elbe-Einzugsgebietes fokussiert. So werden in Kapitel 4 die niedrigfrequenten Variabilitäten der unterschiedlichen hydro-meteorologischen Parameter untersucht und es werden Modelle beschrieben, die die Dynamik dieser Niedrigfrequenzen und deren zukünftiges Verhalten simulieren. Kapitel 5 diskutiert die mögliche Anwendung der Ergebnisse für die charakteristische Skalen und die Verfahren der Analyse der zeitlichen Variabilität auf praktische Fragestellungen im Wasserbau sowie auf die zeitliche Bestimmung des Gebiets-Abflusses an unbeobachteten Stellen. Kapitel 6 verfolgt die Spur der Niedrigfrequenzzyklen im Niederschlag durch die einzelnen Komponenten des hydrologischen Zyklus, nämlich dem Direktabfluss, dem Basisabfluss, der Grundwasserströmung und dem Gebiets-Abfluss durch empirische Modellierung. Die Schlussfolgerungen werden im Kapitel 7 präsentiert. In einem Anhang werden technische Einzelheiten zu den verwendeten statistischen Methoden und die entwickelten Software-Tools beschrieben.

Automated artifact removal from the electroencephalogram; a comparative study

Contamination of the electroencephalogram (EEG) by artifacts greatly reduces the quality of the recorded signals. There is a need for automated artifact removal methods. However, such methods are rarely evaluated against one another via rigorous criteria, with results often presented based upon visual inspection alone. This work presents a comparative study of automatic methods for removing blink, electrocardiographic, and electromyographic artifacts from the EEG. Three methods are considered; wavelet, blind source separation (BSS), and multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA)-based correction. These are applied to data sets containing mixtures of artifacts. Metrics are devised to measure the performance of each method. The BSS method is seen to be the best approach for artifacts of high signal to noise ratio (SNR). By contrast, MSSA performs well at low SNRs but at the expense of a large number of false positive corrections.

Como vão se formando os professores em física e química: embates entre o ser, o ter e o fazer na formação de licenciandos da UFRN sob a perspectiva da teoria das representações sociais

The purpose of this work is to approach and understand the Social Representations (SR) (MOSCOVICI, 2003) about Physics and Chemistry from people who are major in these courses, as well as their Social Representations about teaching . We took as principle that approaching these representations it would be possible to relate their symbolic contents, in order to show how people who are following the first segments of bachelor degree courses in Physics and Chemistry become teachers, taking into account a psychosocial view. Two source of data was used during this research: Free-association Technique FA (ABRIC, 1994); and Multiple Classification Procedure (MCP) (ROAZZI, 1995). The analytical treatment of the collected data from FA was done according to the proposition of Grize, Vergés and Silem (1987 apud ABRIC, 1994, p. 66). MCP data were analyzed through MSA (Multidimensional Scalogram Analysis) and SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis) methods associated with the Facet Theory (BILSKY, 2003). The discourses of MCP discussing groups at the moment of explanations were studied by Content Analysis as it was proposed by Bardin (1977) and Franco (2005). Indicative of an approach to the relations with knowledge (CHARLOT, 2000), the connections which aroused from the analyses showed that the group of future majors in Physics thought that this scientific field was based on a rationalist conception, influencing the idealization sense of the phenomena to be explained by Physics. Thus, Physics as school content started to require the student of the fundamental and high school to think abstractly as a cognitive skill of learning. The identifying elements observed in the relations between SR about Physics and Teaching aroused from the antagonism between future majors and their teacher, as well as from the speculation between their fundamental and high school students and themselves, mainly when they had to face the act of teaching due to the obstacles imposed by the own educational system, and by the weakness of the initial preparation. The group of future majors in Chemistry, through its discourses, showed these relations when they conceived empiricist Chemistry and said that teaching was the way of transmission of this knowledge, and didactics of Chemistry teaching was the direction to learning through pedagogic methods in order to lead the students to discoveries. The psychosocial contents which were built and showed from the symbolic relations in the studied SR achieved the relation of identity. This relation revealed identifying elements for these people, resulting from the traffic between their condition as students of Chemistry, and as teachers regarding their work, what placed the current relational contents in the teaching space, named as Knowledge changing and Adaptability . In order to study emerging questions in the discussing environment about formation and teaching professionalization, we focused the psychosocial view on this traffic and managed to observe epistemological practical and pedagogic obstacles that limited a configuration of the teaching work as a professional activity, especially from the particular conditions which led the relations of senses to Physics , Chemistry and Teaching ; and Chemistry and Physics as it was seen in this research. Generally speaking, we noted that these obstacles can denounce such obstacles concerning to the pedagogic doings which mainly impair the learning process of fundamental and high school students

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Stable oxygen isotope record from a high-latitude reef off Western Australia

A core from a coral colony of Porites lutea was analysed for stable oxygen isotopic composition*. A 200-year proxy record of sea surface temperatures from the Houtman Abrolhos Islands off west Australia was obtained from coral delta18O. At 29°S, the Houtman Abrolhos are the southernmost major reef complex of the Indian Ocean. They are located on the path of the Leeuwin Current, a southward flow of warm, tropical water, which is coupled to Indonesian throughflow. Coral delta18O primarily reflects local oceanographic and climatic variability, which is largely determined by spatial variability of the Leeuwin Current. However, coherence between coral delta18O and the current strength itself is relatively weak. Evolutionary spectral and singular spectrum analyses of coral delta18O demonstrate a high variability in spectral composition through time. Oscillations in the 5-7-y, 14-15-y, and quasi-biennial bands reflect teleconnections of local sea surface temperature (SST) to tropical Pacific climate variability. Deviations between local (coral-based) and regional (instrument) SST contain a cyclic component with a period of 15 y. Coral delta18O suggests a rise in SST by 0.6°C since AD 1944, consistent with available instrumental SST records. A long-term warming by 1.4°C since AD 1795 is inferred from the coral record.

Holocene Mg/Ca, alkenones, and light stable isotope measurements on the outer North Iceland shelf, sediment core MD99-2269

We present new Holocene century to millennial-scale proxies for the well-dated piston core MD99-2269 from Húnaflóadjúp on the North Iceland Shelf. The core is located in 365 mwd and lies close to the fluctuating boundary between Atlantic and Arctic/Polar waters. The proxies are: alkenone-based SST°C, and Mg/Ca SST°C estimates and stable d13C and d18O values on planktonic and benthic foraminifera. The data were converted to 60 yr equi-spaced time-series. Significant trends in the data were extracted using Singular Spectrum Analysis and these accounted for between 50% and 70% of the variance. A comparison between these data with previously published climate proxies from MD99-2269 was carried out on a data set which consisted of 14-variable data set covering the interval 400-9200 cal yr BP at 100 yr time steps. This analysis indicated that the 1st two PC axes accounted for 57% of the variability with high loadings clustering primarily into "nutrient" and "temperature" proxies. Clustering on the 100 yr time-series indicated major changes in environment at ~6350 and ~3450 cal yr BP, which define early, mid- and late Holocene climatic intervals. We argue that a pervasive freshwater cap during the early Holocene resulted in warm SST°s, a stratified water column, and a depleted nutrient supply. The loss of the freshwater layer in the mid-Holocene resulted in high carbonate production, and the late Holocene/neoglacial interval was marked by significantly more variable sea surface conditions.

New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

Essential spectrum of systems of singular differential equations

In this paper we develop a new method to determine the essential spectrum of coupled systems of singular differential equations. Applications to problems from magnetohydrodynamics and astrophysics are given.

Turbulent diffusion phase transition is due to singular energy spectrum.

The phase transition for turbulent diffusion, reported by Avellaneda and Majda [Avellaneda, M. & Majda, A. J. (1994) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London A 346, 205-233, and several earlier papers], is traced to a modeling assumption in which the energy spectrum of the turbulent fluid is singularly dependent on the viscosity in the inertial range. Phenomenological models of turbulence and intermittency, by contrast, require that the energy spectrum be independent of the viscosity in the inertial range. When the energy spectrum is assumed to be consistent with the phenomenological models, there is no phase transition for turbulent diffusion.

High-Rate Vector Quantization for Noisy Channels With Applications to Wideband Speech Spectrum Compression

This paper considers the high-rate performance of source coding for noisy discrete symmetric channels with random index assignment (IA). Accurate analytical models are developed to characterize the expected distortion performance of vector quantization (VQ) for a large class of distortion measures. It is shown that when the point density is continuous, the distortion can be approximated as the sum of the source quantization distortion and the channel-error induced distortion. Expressions are also derived for the continuous point density that minimizes the expected distortion. Next, for the case of mean squared error distortion, a more accurate analytical model for the distortion is derived by allowing the point density to have a singular component. The extent of the singularity is also characterized. These results provide analytical models for the expected distortion performance of both conventional VQ as well as for channel-optimized VQ. As a practical example, compression of the linear predictive coding parameters in the wideband speech spectrum is considered, with the log spectral distortion as performance metric. The theory is able to correctly predict the channel error rate that is permissible for operation at a particular level of distortion.

Application of the Schwinger multichannel method to multichannel studies of electronically inelastic electron-molecule collisions

We have applied the Schwinger Multichannel Method(SMC) to the study of electronically inelastic, low energy electron-molecule collisions. The focus of these studies has been the assessment of the importance of multichannel coupling to the dynamics of these excitation processes. It has transpired that the promising quality of results realized in early SMC work on such inelastic scattering processes has been far more difficult to obtain in these more sophisticated studies.

We have attempted to understand the sources of instability of the SMC method which are evident in these multichannel studies. Particular instances of such instability have been considered in detail, which indicate that linear dependence, failure of the separable potential approximation, and difficulties in converging matrix elements involving recorrelation or Q-space terms all conspire to complicate application of the SMC method to these studies. A method involving singular value decomposition(SVD) has been developed to, if not resolve these problems, at least mitigate their deleterious effects on the computation of electronically inelastic cross sections.

In conjunction with this SVD procedure, the SMC method has been applied to the study of the H_2 , H_2O, and N_2 molecules. Rydberg excitations of the first two molecules were found to be most sensitive to multichannel coupling near threshold. The (3σ_g → 1π_g ) and (1π_u → 1π_g) valence excitations of the N_2 molecule were found to be strongly influenced by the choice of channel coupling scheme at all collision energies considered in these studies.