A Multi-Stage Stochastic Non-Linear Model for Reactive Power Planning Under Contingencies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multi-level, Multi-stage and Stochastic Optimization Models for Energy Conservation in Buildings for Federal, State and Local Agencies

Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of “of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency’s traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Multi-stage evolution of a sub-aerial volcanic ridge over the last 1.3 Myr: S. Jorge Island, Azores Triple Junction

New K/Ar dating and geochemical analyses have been carried out on the WNW-ESE elongated oceanic island of S. Jorge to reconstruct the volcanic evolution of a linear ridge developed close to the Azores triple junction. We show that S. Jorge sub-aerial construction encompasses the last 1.3 Myr, a time interval far much longer than previously reported. The early development of the ridge involved a sub-aerial building phase exposed in the southeast end of the island and now constrained between 1.32 +/- 0.02 and 1.21 +/- 0.02 Ma. Basic lavas from this older stage are alkaline and enriched in incompatible elements, reflecting partial melting of an enriched mantle source. At least three differentiation cycles from alkaline basalts to mugearites are documented within this stage. The successive episodes of magma rising, storage and evolution suggest an intermittent reopening of the magma feeding system, possibly due to recurrent tensional or trans-tensional tectonic events. Present data show a gap in sub-aerial volcanism before a second main ongoing building phase starting at about 750 ka. Sub-aerial construction of the S. Jorge ridge migrated progressively towards the west, but involved several overlapping volcanic episodes constrained along the main WNW-ESE structural axis of the island. Malic magmas erupted during the second phase have been also generated by partial melting of an enriched mantle source. Trace element data suggest, however, variable and lower degrees of partial melting of a shallower mantle domain, which is interpreted as an increasing control of lithospheric deformation on the genesis and extraction of primitive melts during the last 750 kyr. The multi-stage development of the S. Jorge volcanic ridge over the last 1.3 Myr has most likely been greatly influenced by regional tectonics, controlled by deformation along the diffuse boundary between the Nubian and the Eurasian plates, and the increasing effect of sea-floor spreading at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

Optimization of multi-stage amplifiers in deep-submicron CMOS using a distributed/parallel genetic algorithm

IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems, pp. 724 – 727, Seattle, EUA

Multi-stage oligopoly models with nested logit demand structures: A simplifying approach

Solving multi-stage oligopoly models by backward induction can easily become a com- plex task when rms are multi-product and demands are derived from a nested logit frame- work. This paper shows that under the assumption that within-segment rm shares are equal across segments, the analytical expression for equilibrium pro ts can be substantially simpli ed. The size of the error arising when this condition does not hold perfectly is also computed. Through numerical examples, it is shown that the error is rather small in general. Therefore, using this assumption allows to gain analytical tractability in a class of models that has been used to approach relevant policy questions, such as for example rm entry in an industry or the relation between competition and location. The simplifying approach proposed in this paper is aimed at helping improving these type of models for reaching more accurate recommendations.

Multi-stage garnet in the internal Brianconnais basement (Ambin massif, Savoy): New petrological constraints on the blueschist-facies metamorphism in the Western Alps and tectonic implications

Three types of garnet have been distinguished in pelitic schists from an epidote-blueschist-facies unit of the Ambin and South Vanoise Brianconnais massifs on the basis of texture, chemical zoning and mineral inclusion characterization. Type-1 garnet cores with high Mn/Ca ratios are interpreted as pre-Alpine relicts, whereas Type-1 garnet rims, Type-2 inclusion-rich porphyroblasts and smaller Type-3 garnets are Alpine. The latter are all characterized by low Mn/Ca ratios and a coexisting mineral assemblage of blue amphibole, high-Si phengite, epidote and quartz. Prograde growth conditions during Alpine D-1 high-pressure (HP) metamorphism are recorded by a decrease in Mn and increase in Fe (+/-Ca) in the Type-2 garnets, culminating in peak P-T conditions of 14-16 kbar and 500degreesC in the deepest parts of the Ambin dome. The multistage growth history of Type-1 garnets indicates a polymetamorphic history for the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs; unfortunately, no age constraints are available. The new metamorphic constraints on the Alpine event in the massifs define a metamorphic T `gap' between them and their surrounding cover (Brianconnais and upper Schistes Lustres units), which experienced metamorphism only in the stability field of carpholite-lawsonite (T < 400degreesC). These data and supporting structural studies confirm that the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs are slices of `eclogitized' continental crust tectonically extruded within the Schistes Lustres units and Brianconnais covers. The corresponding tectonic contacts with top-to-east movement are responsible for the juxtaposition of lower-grade metamorphic units on the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs.

Identification of different heart tissues from MRI C-SENC images using an unsupervised multi-stage fuzzy clustering technique.

PURPOSE: To objectively characterize different heart tissues from functional and viability images provided by composite-strain-encoding (C-SENC) MRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: C-SENC is a new MRI technique for simultaneously acquiring cardiac functional and viability images. In this work, an unsupervised multi-stage fuzzy clustering method is proposed to identify different heart tissues in the C-SENC images. The method is based on sequential application of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) and iterative self-organizing data (ISODATA) clustering algorithms. The proposed method is tested on simulated heart images and on images from nine patients with and without myocardial infarction (MI). The resulting clustered images are compared with MRI delayed-enhancement (DE) viability images for determining MI. Also, Bland-Altman analysis is conducted between the two methods. RESULTS: Normal myocardium, infarcted myocardium, and blood are correctly identified using the proposed method. The clustered images correctly identified 90 +/- 4% of the pixels defined as infarct in the DE images. In addition, 89 +/- 5% of the pixels defined as infarct in the clustered images were also defined as infarct in DE images. The Bland-Altman results show no bias between the two methods in identifying MI. CONCLUSION: The proposed technique allows for objectively identifying divergent heart tissues, which would be potentially important for clinical decision-making in patients with MI.

Modeling small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico using multi-criteria programming

Milk supply from Mexican dairy farms does not meet demand and small-scale farms can contribute toward closing the gap. Two multi-criteria programming techniques, goal programming and compromise programming, were used in a study of small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico. To build the goal and compromise programming models, 4 ordinary linear programming models were also developed, which had objective functions to maximize metabolizable energy for milk production, to maximize margin of income over feed costs, to maximize metabolizable protein for milk production, and to minimize purchased feedstuffs. Neither multicriteria approach was significantly better than the other; however, by applying both models it was possible to perform a more comprehensive analysis of these small-scale dairy systems. The multi-criteria programming models affirm findings from previous work and suggest that a forage strategy based on alfalfa, rye-grass, and corn silage would meet nutrient requirements of the herd. Both models suggested that there is an economic advantage in rescheduling the calving season to the second and third calendar quarters to better synchronize higher demand for nutrients with the period of high forage availability.

An integrated multi-stage model of knowledge management in international joint ventures: identifying a trigger for knowledge exploration and knowledge harvest

This paper examines the evolution of knowledge management from the initial knowledge migration stage, through adaptation and creation, to the reverse knowledge migration stage in international joint ventures (IJVs). While many studies have analyzed these stages (mostly focusing on knowledge transfer), we investigated the path-dependent nature of knowledge flow in IJVs. The results from the empirical analysis based on a survey of 136 Korean parent companies of IJVs reveal that knowledge management in IJVs follows a sequential, multi-stage process, and that the knowledge transferred from parents to IJVs must first be adapted within its new environment before it reaches the creation stage. We also found that only created knowledge is transferred back to parents.

Using adaptive automata in a multi-paradigm programming environment

In this paper the architecture of an experimental multiparadigmatic programming environment is sketched, showing how its parts combine together with application modules in order to perform the integration of program modules written in different programming languages and paradigms. Adaptive automata are special self-modifying formal state machines used as a design and implementation tool in the representation of complex systems. Adaptive automata have been proven to have the same formal power as Turing Machines. Therefore, at least in theory, arbitrarily complex systems may be modeled with adaptive automata. The present work briefly introduces such formal tool and presents case studies showing how to use them in two very different situations: the first one, in the name management module of a multi-paradigmatic and multi-language programming environment, and the second one, in an application program implementing an adaptive automaton that accepts a context-sensitive language.

A branch-and-bound algorithm for the multi-stage transmission expansion planning

This work presents a branch-and-bound algorithm to solve the multi-stage transmission expansion planning problem. The well known transportation model is employed, nevertheless the algorithm can be extended to hybrid models or to more complex ones such as the DC model. Tests with a realistic power system were carried out in order to show the performance of the algorithm for the expansion plan executed for different time frames. © 2005 IEEE.

A multi-objective programming approach for the optimal operation of distributed generation considering uncertainty

Due to the renewed interest in distributed generation (DG), the number of DG units incorporated in distribution systems has been rapidly increasing in the past few years. This situation requires new analysis tools for understanding system performance, and taking advantage of the potential benefits of DG. This paper presents an evolutionary multi-objective programming approach to determine the optimal operation of DG in distribution systems. The objectives are the minimization of the system power losses and operation cost of the DG units. The proposed approach also considers the inherent stochasticity of DG technologies powered by renewable resources. Some tests were carried out on the IEEE 34 bus distribution test system showing the robustness and applicability of the proposed methodology. © 2011 IEEE.