Enhancing Motorcycle Conspicuity Awareness in Iowa, 2010

Previous studies in the United States and internationally suggest that low motorcycle conspicuity, or the inability of the motorcyclist to be seen by other road users, is thought to be an important factor associated with risk of motorcycle crashes. However, there has been limited research on motorcycle conspicuity in the United States in the past two decades, while at the same time; there has been a renewed interest from states in increasing motorcycle conspicuity and motorist awareness. As such, this research revisits the motorcycle conspicuity problem by analysis of helmet-use and motorcycle crash data. First, this study reviews previous studies on motorcycle conspicuity with a focus on the effectiveness of proposed measures for enhancing motorcycle conspicuity. The major trends in motorcycle helmet use by time of day and road type for motorcyclists, as indicated from three roadside observational roadside surveys in Iowa, are also discussed. Then, using motorcycle crash data for Iowa from 2001 to 2008, this research compares single-and two-vehicle motorcycle crashes and examines the distribution of conspicuity related factors in light and dark conditions in two-vehicle crashes that could potentially relate to a collision between a motorcycle and another vehicle. The limitations of examining motorcycle conspicuity by analysis of crash data are also discussed. Finally, this report outlines recommendations based on the key findings of the study.

Motorcycle Conspicuity – What Factors Have the Greatest Impact, 2012.

The Iowa Motorcycle Operator Manual states that when a motorcycle and another vehicle collide, more than half of these crashes are caused by drivers entering the rider’s right-of-way. Furthermore, in crashes with motorcyclists, drivers often say they never saw the motorcycle. Therefore, increasing motorcycle conspicuity could help address these issues, resulting in fewer crashes (and injuries and damage).

Motorcycle exhaust burns in children

Objectives: To document and describe motorbike exhaust burns on children. Design, Patients and Setting: Departmental database and case note review of all children with motorbike exhaust burns seen at the Stuart Pegg Paediatric Burns Centre, Brisbane between January 1996 and October 2001. Main outcome measures: Number and age of children burned, circumstances of the injury, burns sustained, treatment required and long-term sequelae. Results: Twenty-four children, median age 8 years, sustained thermal burns, most commonly to the right lower leg. Thirteen children required surgery, and 17 required chronic scar management. Conclusions: We have identified motorbike exhausts as a cause of burns in children. The injuries received resulted in significant morbidity to these children and warrants a campaign airned at reducing the incidence of such injuries. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. and ISBI.

Crashes, volatility, and the equity premium: Lessons from S&P 500 options

We use a novel pricing model to imply time series of diffusive volatility and jump intensity from S&P 500 index options. These two measures capture the ex ante risk assessed by investors. Using a simple general equilibrium model, we translate the implied measures of ex ante risk into an ex ante risk premium. The average premium that compensates the investor for the ex ante risks is 70% higher than the premium for realized volatility. The equity premium implied from option prices is shown to significantly predict subsequent stock market returns.

Earnings management and stock price crashes post-crossdelisting

We test whether cross-delisted firms from the major U.S. stock exchanges experience an increase in crash risk associated with earnings management. Consistent with our prediction, we find that earnings management have a greater positive impact on stock price crash risk post-cross-delisting when compared to a sample of still cross-listed firms. Moreover, our results suggest that this effect is more pronounced for crossdelisted firms from countries with weaker investor protection and poorer quality of their information environment. We further examine whether managers’ ability to manipulate earnings increases post-cross-delisting around seasoned equity offerings. Our evidence shows that cross-delisted firms that engage in earnings management to inflate reported earnings prior to a seasoned equity offering are more likely to observe a subsequent stock price crash.

Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.

Exploring Determinants of Urban Motorcycle Accident Severity: The Case of Barcelona

Public authorities and road users alike are increasingly concerned by recent trends in road safety outcomes in Barcelona, which is the European city with the highest number of registered Powered Two-Wheel (PTW) vehicles per inhabitant,. In this study we explore the determinants of motorcycle and moped accident severity in a large urban area, drawing on Barcelona’s local police database (2002-2008). We apply non-parametric regression techniques to characterize PTW accidents and parametric methods to investigate the factors influencing their severity. Our results show that PTW accident victims are more vulnerable, showing greater degrees of accident severity, than other traffic victims. Speed violations and alcohol consumption provide the worst health outcomes. Demographic and environment-related risk factors, in addition to helmet use, play an important role in determining accident severity. Thus, this study furthers our understanding of the most vulnerable vehicle types, while our results have direct implications for local policy makers in their fight to reduce the severity of PTW accidents in large urban areas.

Iowa Motorcycle Operator's Manual, 2002

The rules and regualtions for owning and operating a motorcycle in Iowa

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

The dog that did not bark: Insider trading and crashes

This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. We test our hypothesis against competing stories such as patterns of insider trading driven by earnings announcement dates, or insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution. Finally we provide new evidence regarding crashes and the degree of information asymmetry.

Iowa Motorcycle Operator's Manual, April 27, 2009

The rules and regulations for owning and operating a motorcycle in Iowa

Iowa Comprehensive Highway Safety Plan, September 2006

In Iowa, hundreds of people die and thousands more are injured on our public roadways each year despite decades of efforts to end this su�ffering. Past safety e�efforts have resulted in Iowans bene�fiting from one of the best state roadway systems in the nation. Due to multi-agency e�efforts, Iowa has achieved 90 percent compliance with the state’s mandatory front seat belt use law, earned the nation’s second-lowest percent of alcohol involvement in fatal crashes and made safety gains in system-wide roadway design and operational improvements. Despite these ongoing e�efforts, the state’s annual average of 445 deaths and thousands of life-changing injuries is a tragic toll and an unacceptable public health epidemic in our state. To save more lives on our roadways, Iowans must be challenged to think �differently about lifesaving measures addressing young drivers, safety belts, and motorcycle helmet use and accept innovative designs such as roundabouts. Iowa must apply evidence-based strategies and create a safety culture that motivates all citizens to travel more responsibly. They must demand a lower level of tolerance for Iowa’s roadway deaths and injuries. The Iowa Comprehensive Highway Safety Plan (CHSP) engages diverse safety stakeholders and charts the course for this state, bringing to bear sound science and the power of shared community values to change the culture and achieve a standard of safer travel for our citizens. How many roadway deaths and injuries are too many? Iowa’s highway safety stakeholders believe that, “One death is one too many” and e�effective culture-changing policy and program strategies must be implemented to help reduce this death toll from an annual average of 445 to 400 by the year 2015.

Historical Summary of Travel, Crashes, Fatalities, and Rates 1970 – 2009, July 6, 2010

Historical Summary of Travel, Crashes, Fatalities, and Rates 1970 – 2009, produced by Iowa Department of Transportation.