979 resultados para Morgan Stanley


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Realizar una comparación entre el mercado bursátil colombiano y el chileno, a través de un paralelo histórico teniendo en cuenta las legislaciones que rigen dichos mercados y la inversión extranjera en portafolios de inversión, con el fin de determinar por qué el mercado colombiano no se ha desarrollado tan positivamente como lo ha hecho el chileno y definir los posibles mecanismos y políticas adecuadas que deban implementarse para generar ese desarrollo.

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Includes bibliography

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The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

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The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

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Mineralogical, hydrochemical and S isotope data were used to constrain hydrogeochemical processes that produce acid mine drainage from sulfidic waste at the historic Mount Morgan Au–Cu mine, and the factors controlling the concentration of SO4 and environmentally hazardous metals in the nearby Dee River in Queensland, Australia. Some highly contaminated acid waters, with metal contents up to hundreds of orders of magnitude greater than the Australia–New Zealand environmental standards, by-pass the water management system at the site and drain into the adjacent Dee River. Mine drainage precipitates at Mt. Morgan were classified into 4 major groups and were identified as hydrous sulfates and hydroxides of Fe and Al with various contents of other metals. These minerals contain adsorbed or mineralogically bound metals that are released into the water system after rainfall events. Sulfate in open pit water and collection sumps generally has a narrow range of S isotope compositions (δ34S = 1.8–3.7‰) that is comparable to the orebody sulfides and makes S isotopes useful for tracing SO4 back to its source. The higher δ34S values for No. 2 Mill Diesel sump may be attributed to a difference in the source. Dissolved SO4 in the river above the mine influence and 20 km downstream show distinctive heavier isotope compositions (δ34S = 5.4–6.8‰). The Dee River downstream of the mine is enriched in 34S (δ34S = 2.8–5.4‰) compared with mine drainage possibly as a result of bacterial SO4 reduction in the weir pools, and in the water bodies within the river channel. The SO4 and metals attenuate downstream by a combination of dilution with the receiving waters, SO4 reduction, and the precipitation of Fe and Al sulfates and hydroxides. It is suggested here that in subtropical Queensland, with distinct wet and dry seasons, temporary reducing environments in the river play an important role in S isotope systematics

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Quantitative laser ablation (LA)-ICP-MS analyses of fluid inclusions, trace element chemistry of sulfides, stable isotope (S), and Pb isotopes have been used to discriminate the formation of two contrasting mineralization styles and to evaluate the origin of the Cu and Au at Mt Morgan. The Mt Morgan Au-Cu deposit is hosted by Devonian felsic volcanic rocks that have been intruded by multiple phases of the Mt Morgan Tonalite, a low-K, low-Al2O3 tonalite-trondhjemite-dacite (TTD) complex. An early, barren massive sulfide mineralization with stringer veins is conforming to VHMS sub-seafloor replacement processes, whereas the high-grade Au-Cu. ore is associated with a later quartz-chalcopyrite-pyrite stock work mineralization that is related to intrusive phases of the Tonalite complex. LA-ICP-MS fluid inclusion analyses reveal high As (avg. 8850 ppm) and Sb (avg. 140 ppm) for the Au-Cu mineralization and 5 to 10 times higher Cu concentration than in the fluids associated with the massive pyrite mineralization. Overall, the hydrothermal system of Mt Morgan is characterized by low average fluid salinities in both mineralization styles (45-80% seawater salinity) and temperatures of 210 to 270 degreesC estimated from fluid inclusions. Laser Raman Spectroscopic analysis indicates a consistent and uniform array Of CO2-bearing fluids. Comparison with active submarine hydrothermal vents shows an enrichment of the Mt Morgan fluids in base metals. Therefore, a seawater-dominated fluid is assumed for the barren massive sulfide mineralization, whereas magmatic volatile contributions are implied for the intrusive related mineralization. Condensation of magmatic vapor into a seawater-dominated environment explains the CO2 occurrence, the low salinities, and the enriched base and precious metal fluid composition that is associated with the Au-Cu. mineralization. The sulfur isotope signature of pyrite and chalcopyrite is composed of fractionated Devonian seawater and oxidized magmatic fluids or remobilized sulfur from existing sulfides. Pb isotopes indicate that Au and Cu. originated from the Mt Morgan intrusions and a particular volcanic strata that shows elevated Cu background. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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