Statistical analysis of the position of the monsoon trough

Using surface charts at 0330GMT, the movement df the monsoon trough during the months June to September 1990 al two fixed longitudes, namely 79 degrees E and 85 degrees E, is studied. The probability distribution of trough position shows that the median, mean and mode occur at progressively more northern latitudes, especially at 85 degrees E, with a pronounced mode that is close to the northern-most limit reached by the trough. A spectral analysis of the fluctuating latitudinal position of the trough is carried out using FFT and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Both methods show significant peaks around 7.5 and 2.6 days, and a less significant one around 40-50 days. The two peaks at the shorter period are more prominent at the eastern longitude. MEM shows an additional peak around 15 days. A study of the weather systems that occurred during the season shows them to have a duration around 3 days and an interval between systems of around 9 days, suggesting a possible correlation with the dominant short periods observed in the spectrum of trough position.

On the measurement of the surface energy budget over a land surface during the summer monsoon

The measurement of surface energy balance over a land surface in an open area in Bangalore is reported. Measurements of all variables needed to calculate the surface energy balance on time scales longer than a week are made. Components of radiative fluxes are measured while sensible and latent heat fluxes are based on the bulk method using measurements made at two levels on a micrometeorological tower of 10 m height. The bulk flux formulation is verified by comparing its fluxes with direct fluxes using sonic anemometer data sampled at 10 Hz. Soil temperature is measured at 4 depths. Data have been continuously collected for over 6 months covering pre-monsoon and monsoon periods during the year 2006. The study first addresses the issue of getting the fluxes accurately. It is shown that water vapour measurements are the most crucial. A bias of 0.25% in relative humidity, which is well above the normal accuracy assumed the manufacturers but achievable in the field using a combination of laboratory calibration and field intercomparisons, results in about 20 W m(-2) change in the latent heat flux on the seasonal time scale. When seen on the seasonal time scale, the net longwave radiation is the largest energy loss term at the experimental site. The seasonal variation in the energy sink term is small compared to that in the energy source term.

The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.

Spatial distribution of aerosol black carbon over India during pre-monsoon season

Aerosol black carbon (BC) mass concentrations ([BC]), measured continuously during a multi-platform field experiment, Integrated Campaign for Aerosols gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB, March-May 2006), from a network of eight observatories spread over geographically distinct environments of India, (which included five mainland stations, one highland station, and two island stations (one each ill Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal)) are examined for their spatio-temporal characteristics. During the period of study, [BC] showed large variations across the country, with values ranging from 27 mu g m(3) over industrial/urban locations to as low as 0.065 mu g m(-3) over the Arabian Sea. For all mainland stations, [BC] remained high compared to highland as well as island stations. Among the island stations, Port Blair (PBR) had higher concentration of BC, compared to Minicoy (MCY), implying more absorbing nature of Bay of Bengal aerosols than Arabian Sea. The highland station Nainital (NTL), in the central Himalayas, showed low values of [BC], comparable or even lower than that of the island station PBR, indicating the prevalence of cleaner environment over there. An examination of the changes in the mean temporal features, as the season advances from winter (December-February) to pre-monsoon (March-May), revealed that: (a) Diurnal variations were pronounced over all the mainland stations, with all afternoon low and a nighttime high: (b) At the islands, the diurnal variations, though resembled those over the mainlands, were less pronounced; and (c) In contrast to this, highland station showed an opposite pattern with an afternoon high and a late night or early morning low. The diurnal variations at all stations are mainly caused by the dynamics of local Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL), At the entire mainland as well as island stations (except HYD and DEL), [BC] showed a decreasing trend from January to May, This is attributed to the increased convective mixing and to the resulting enhanced vertical dispersal of species in the ABL. In addition, large short-period modulations were observed at DEL and HYD, which appeared to be episodic, An examination of this in the light of the MODIS-derived fire count data over India along with the back-trajectory analysis revealed that advection of BC from extensive forest fires and biomass-burning regions upwind were largely responsible for this episodic enhancement in BC at HYD and DEL.

Cyclone-induced mixing does not cool SST in the post-monsoon north Bay of Bengal

High-resolution data from the TRMM satellite shows that sea surface temperature (SST) cools by 3 degrees C under the tracks of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. However, even the strongest post-monsoon cyclones do not cool the open north Bay of Bengal. In this region, a shallow layer of freshwater from river runoff and monsoon rain caps a deep warm layer. Therefore, storm-induced mixing is not deep, and it entrains warm subsurface water. It is possible that the hydrography of the post-monsoon north Bay favours intense cyclones.

Ocean atmosphere coupling over monsoon regions

In monsoon regions, the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is manifested as a seasonal reversal of winds. Most of the summer monsoon rainfall over India occurs owing to synoptic and large-scale convection associated with the continental ITCZ (Fig. 1). We have investigated the interaction between these large-scale convective systems and the ocean over which they are generated1â3, concentrating on the relationship between organized convection over the Indian Ocean and sea surface temperature (SST). We report here that on a monthly basis the degree of cloudiness correlates well with SST for the relatively colder oceans, but when SST is maintained above 28 °C it ceases to be an important factor in determining the variability of cloudiness. Over the major regions of convection east of 70°E, which are warm year after year, the observed cloudiness cannot be correlated with variations in SST.

Impact of African orography and the Indian summer monsoon on the low-level Somali jet

The low-level jet (LLJ) over the Indian region, which is most prominent during the monsoon (June-September) season, has been studied with a general circulation model (GCM). The role of African orography in modulating this jet is the focus of this article. The presence o African orography intensifies the cross-equatorial flow. Contrary to previous modelling Studies we find that cross-equatorial flow occurs even in the absence of African orography, though this flow is muc weaker even when the Indian monsoon rainfall is high. However, the location of the meridional jet near the equator in the Somali region is linked to the Indian monsoon rainfall rather than to the land-sea contrast over Somalia. Also, the presence of African orography, and not the strength of the Indian monsoon, controls the vertical extent of the equatorial meridional wind. In an aqua-planet simulation, the cross-equatorial flow occurs about 30 to the west of the rainfall maximum. Thus, the longitudinal location of the equatorial Somali jet depends upon the occurrence of monsoon heating, but the vertical structure of the jet is on account of the western boundary current in the atmosphere due to the East African highlands under the influence of monsoonal heat source.

Sensible heat fluxes during the active and break phases of the southwest monsoon over the Indian region

Based on the theory given by Saltzman and Ashe (1976), sensible heat fluxes are calculated for the active and break phases of the southwest monsoon over the Indian region. The conclusion drawn is that the sensible heat flux is generally larger during the break monsoon situation when compared with that for the active monsoon situation. The synoptic heat flux is negligible when compared with mean and diurnal heat fluxes over the Indian region even during the monsoon season.

A mechanism for the west-north-west movement of monsoon depressions

The monsoon depressions intensify over the Bay of Bengal, move in a west-north-west (WNW) direction and dissipate over the Indian continent. No convincing physical explanation for their observed movement has so far been arrived at, but here, I suggest why the maximum precipitation occurs in the western sector of the depression and propose a feedback mechanism for the WNW movement of the depressions. We assume that a heat source is created over the Bay of Bengal due to organization of cumulus convection by the initial instability. In a linear sense, heating at this latitude (20° N), produces an atmospheric response mainly in the form of a stationary Rossby–gravity wave to the west of the heat source. The low-level vorticity (hence the frictional convergence) and the vertical velocity associated with the steady-state response is such that the maximum moisture convergence (and precipitation) is expected to occur in the WNW sector at a later time. Thus, the heat source moves to the WNW sector at a later time and the feedback continues resulting in the WNW movement of the depressions.

Fluid dynamics of the monsoon

The monsoonal regions of the world are characterized by a seasonal reversal in the direction of winds associated with the excursion of the equatorial trough (or the ITCZ) in response to the variation in the latitude of maximum insolation. This monsoonal circulation is a planetary scale phenomenon. However, the associated precipitation is critically dependent on the organization of the cumulus clouds (typically a few kilometers in horizontal extent) over the scale of synoptic vortices (typically a few hundred kilometers in horizontal extent). Thus modelling of the seasonal transitions and intraseasonal fluctuations requires an understanding of the fluid mechanics of these three scales of organizations and their interactions. The present paper is an attempt to outline the current state of understanding of these phenomena.

On the Maximum Cloud Zone and the ITCZ over Indian, Longitudes during the Southwest Monsoon

An investigation is presented of the daily variation of the maximum cloud zone (MCZ) and the 7W mb trough in the Northern Hemisphere over the Indian longitudes 70–90°E during April–October for 1973–77. It is found that during June–September there are two favorable locations for a MCZ over these longitudes–on a majority of days the MCZ is present in the monsoon zone north of 15°N, and often a secondary MCZ occurs in the equatorial region (0–10°N). The monsoon MCZ gets established by northward movement of the MCZ occurring over the equatorial Indian ocean in April and May. The secondary MCZ appears intermittently, and is characterized by long spells of persistence only when the monsoon MCZ is absent. In each of the seasons studied, the MCZ temporarily disappeared from the mean summer monsoon location (15–28°N) about four weeks after it was established near the beginning of July. It is reestablished by the northward movement of the secondary MCZ, which becomes active during the absence of the monsoon MCZ, in a manner strikingly similar to that observed in the spring to summer transition. A break in monsoon conditions prevails just prior to the temporary disappearance of the monsoon MCZ. Thus we conclude that the monsoon MCZ cannot survive for longer than a month without reestablishment by the secondary MCZ. Possible underlying mechanisms are also discussed.

Orographic effects on the southwest monsoon: A review

An overview of the problem of orographic effects on the southwest monsoon using the contributions of all the available analytical and numerical models is attempted. A quasi-geostrophic model is applied to deduce the effect of the topographic complex on the Indian peninsula. This model suggests that the southward bending of the low-level isobars on the peninsula can be ascribed to the topographically-induced southward velocity. This southward velocity triggers a Rossby wave to the east of the peninsula which is manifested as a trough on the southern Bay of Bengal.

Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in daily data from gauge and satellite

It has long been thought that tropical rainfall retrievals from satellites have large errors. Here we show, using a new daily 1 degree gridded rainfall data set based on about 1800 gauges from the India Meteorology Department (IMD), that modern satellite estimates are reasonably close to observed rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Daily satellite rainfalls from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP 1DD) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are available since 1998. The high summer monsoon (June-September) rain over the Western Ghats and Himalayan foothills is captured in TMPA data. Away from hilly regions, the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of rainfall (averaged over regions of a few hundred kilometers linear dimension) from both satellite products are about 15% of observations. Satellite data generally underestimate both the mean and variability of rain, but the phase of intraseasonal variations is accurate. On synoptic timescales, TMPA gives reasonable depiction of the pattern and intensity of torrential rain from individual monsoon low-pressure systems and depressions. A pronounced biennial oscillation of seasonal total central India rain is seen in all three data sets, with GPCP 1DD being closest to IMD observations. The new satellite data are a promising resource for the study of tropical rainfall variability.

Diurnal-scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations

One of the most important modes of summer season precipitation variability over the Indian region, the diurnal cycle, is studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3-hourly, 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007). Most previous studies have provided an analysis of a single year or a few years of satellite-or station-based rainfall data. Our study aims to systematically analyze the statistical characteristics of the diurnal-scale signature of rainfall over the Indian and surrounding regions. Using harmonic analysis, we extract the signal corresponding to diurnal and subdiurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time period or the octet of rainfall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the ``peak octet,'' is estimated, with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430, and 1730 Indian standard time (IST), from the north central to south bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian Sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet owing to the occurrence of a ual maxima (early morng and early/late afternoon). The imalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e. g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e. g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land.