Economic development or monetary stability: the false dilemma

Documento en portugués (12571) y en español (70793 y 87763), en otras fuentes, ingresado en Biblioteca

Monetary equilibrium with decentralized trade and learning

This paper analyzes the stability of monetary regimes in an economy where fiat money is endogenously created by the government, information about its value is imperfect, and learning is decentralized. We show that monetary stability depends crucially on the speed of information transmission in the economy. Our model generates a dynamic on the acceptability of fiat money that resembles historical accounts of the rise and eventual collapse of overissued paper money. It also provides an explanation of the fact that, despite its obvious advantages, the widespread use of fiat money is only a recent development.

Information learning and the stability of fiat money

We analyze the stability of monetary regimes in a decentralized economy where fiat money is endogenously created, information about its value is imperfect, and agents only learn from their personal trading experiences. We show that in poorly informed economies, monetary stability depends heavily on the government's commitment to the long run value of money, whereas in economies where agents gather information more easily, monetary stability can be an endogenous outcome. We generate a dynamics on the acceptability of fiat money that resembles historical accounts of the rise and eventual colIapse of overissued paper money. Moreover, our results provide an explanation of the fact that, despite its obvious advantages, the widespread use of fiat money is a very recent development.

Monetáris politikai tendenciák I. Eszköztárak (Tendencies in monetary policy I. - Asset prices)

A közgazdaságtan, szűkebben a monetáris politika előtt két elméleti és gyakorlati kihívást látok: a globális egyensúlytalanságoknak nevezett jelenséget és az eszközár problematikát. Előbbi a világgazdaságban koncentráltan fölhalmozódó adósságokat és követelésállományokat jelenti, utóbbi a banki és nem banki pénzügyi piacok folyamatainak lehetséges pénzügypolitikai vonatkozásaira utal. Mondandómat két cikkben fogalmazom meg. Ez az írás először a monetáris stabilitás és instabilitás kérdéskörét mutatja be történeti keretben, ami tekinthető mindkét aktuális témakör földolgozásához szükséges elméleti fölvezetőnek is. Ezt követi a monetáris politika és az eszközárak kapcsolatának vizsgálata. A következő cikk foglalkozik a globális egyensúlytalanságokkal. Azért választottam e sorrendet, mert a két téma szorosan összefügg, az itt leírt magyarázatok segíthetik a későbbiek megértését. Az írásban többször megfogalmazok saját véleményt, a hangsúly mégis a szakirodalom bemutatásán van. / === / Global imbalances and asset price booms and busts are the two main practical and theoretical challenges in economics, especially in monetary policy. The first of them concerns the accumulative tendencies of debts and claims in the world economy, the second challenge deals with the processes of bank and non bank money markets. These topics are dealt with in two articles. The first one presents the issue of monetary stability and instability from a historical perspective. With that the connections between monetary policy and asset prices will be studied. The next article will deal with global imbalances. The topics are closely related and this order helps better understanding. The articles are mainly based on the current literature although I insert my own views as well.

Foro: revista de derecho. 10 (Recensiones)

Presenta las reseñas de los siguientes libros: Rosa M. Lastra, La apertura de un portal en el mundo de la banca central: examen del libro Legal foundaments of intemational monetary stability (Fundamentos legales de la estabilidad monetaria internacional), Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2006, 600 pp. -- Ronald Dworkin, The Supreme Court phalanx. The court's new right-wing bloc, Nueva York, New York review books, 2008, 96 pp.

Em busca da autonomia operacional do Banco Central do Brasil como instrumento de estabilização da moeda

Os Bancos Centrais têm, como função principal, zelar pela moeda, de modo a assegurar a estabilidade financeira de seus países. A partir de tal premissa, buscaremos demonstrar que o Banco Central do Brasil necessita de autonomia operacional, a ser regulamentada em lei, a fim de cumprir com sua missão, que é de natureza essencialmente técnica. Em que pese o fato de questão de se implementar, no Brasil, um Banco Central dotado de autonomia não ser consensual, buscaremos demonstrar as vantagens deste modelo, como fator de obtenção de estabilidade monetária. No Brasil, o Banco Central (BACEN), além de arcar com uma enorme gama de atribuições, encontra-se sujeito a pressões governamentais, em face de projetos de curto prazo, não necessariamente compatíveis com a tarefa de estabilização monetária, que pode requerer uma atuação de longo prazo. A autonomia desejada para o BACEN não significa que ele venha a se tomar independente, pelo contrário, uma vez que ele terá que assumir a responsabilidade de atingir metas pré-determinadas pelo Governo, obrigando-se a prestar contas de sua atuação à sociedade, de modo transparente. Para tanto, é preciso que ele seja dotado de autonomia administrativa, orçamentária e operacional, dentro de limites estabelecidos por lei. Ao destacarmos a autonomia do BACEN, trazemos a tona um fator pertinente à questão que é inflação. Trata-se de um processo que corrói a economia, e, quando se toma crônica, 111 como vinha ocorrendo no Brasil até os anos 90, leva à instabilidade e dificulta um planejamento de longo prazo. A necessidade de se controlar a inflação, em muitos países, levou-os a adotar uma política monetária com metas inflacionárias - Inflatíon Targeting. Os países que adotaram o regime de metas inflacionárias conferiram autonomia aos seus Bancos Centrais, pois tanto mais autonomia, tanto mais credibilidade. Desta forma, países como o Chile, a Nova Zelândia, a Alemanha e os demais países que compõem a União Europeia lograram controlar a inflação. Para que o BACEN cumpra com o que lhe compete, exercendo eficientemente o seu papel, é curial, portanto, que seja dotado de autonomia orçamentária, administrativa e operacional, devendo ser regulamentado o art. 192 da Constituição Federal, através de Lei Complementar. Uma vez assegurada legalmente a autonomia de que o Banco Central do Brasil necessita, ter-se-á um meio valioso de controle da inflação, assegurando a estabilidade da moeda e permitindo que o desenvolvimento seja implementado no prazo adequado, permitindo um planejamento estratégico de longo prazo para o país.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Formação, dinâmica e a reestruturação da cadeia produtiva do leite na região de Jales-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Desenvolvimento econômico e desigualdade social: um estudo sobre os aspectos sociais presentes na obra de Raúl Prebisch

This study aims to conduct an analysis on the social aspects present in the works of the Argentine economist Raúl Prebisch (1901-1986). Based on the author's research on the economic development of the peripheral countries, it will be demonstrated how the social and economic factors have interconnected in the developmental theory of the peripheral worldwide economy. To achieve this goal, the six works of Prebisch considered essentials by Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) were used as main bibliographic axis. Such texts are: Introduction to Keynes, The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems, Economic development or monetary stability: the false dilemma, Towards a Dynamic Development Policy for Latin America, .Change and Development: Latin America's Great Task, Capitalismo periférico: crisis y transformación, Five stages in my thinking on development. Firstly the topics essential to economic development according to the author will be exposed, such as industrialization of peripheral countries as a means of raising the income of masses and the way it should be coordinated beyond the theoretical author's choice on historical events, the evolution of the deterioration of terms of trade between peripheral and central countries and the need for productivity gains to increase the income of the worker. Afterwards it will be exposed how such terms align with social inequalities and which definitions are incorporated by the author on the subject

Hegemony Without Stability: The fiscal and political vulnerabilities of monetary union. ACES Cases No. 2011.2

The crisis has forced the Euro area to establish an emergency fund that supports member states experiencing a sovereign debt crisis. The difficulties of coming up with such a fund for Greece and other Euro area members stands in marked contrast to the balance of payments support that non-Euro members like Hungary received, swiftly and quietly. In order to solve this puzzle, we first establish the difference between EU interventions and IMF programs and, second, trace the evolution of crisis management with France and Germany in the lead. The lens of hegemonic stability theory suggests that the Franco-German leadership is too weak to provide stability and the extensive use of conditionality is one symptom of this weakness. Providing incentives for cooperation "after hegemony" (Keohane) is the unresolved issues troubling the monetary union. Its dominant powers must acknowledge that markets perceive monetary union to be already politically more integrated than its lack of fiscal integration suggests.