Análise do impacto dos preços das commodities sobre a inflação no Brasil

A literatura mostra que os países cujas economias dependem das exportações de commodities possuem um menor repasse de uma alta do preço das commodities sobre a inflação. Este menor repasse aos preços ocorre uma vez que o aumento do preço das commodities gera uma apreciação do câmbio local, que por consequência, alivia o efeito sobre a inflação. Portanto, foi estimado um modelo econométrico para verificar o efeito líquido de uma alta do preço das commodities sobre a inflação no Brasil. Os resultados mostram que um aumento do preço das commodities gera um impacto líquido positivo sobre a inflação no Brasil, embora este impacto seja reduzido após um dado período. A redução deste impacto pode ter como uma das causas o efeito da apreciação do câmbio sobre a inflação.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Moeda única do Mercosul: notas para o debate

Este artigo comenta algumas das críticas feitas à proposta de criação de uma moeda única para o Mercosul. Esclarece-se que a proposta deve ser entendida como uma meta a ser alcançada após a concretização de uma série de pré-requisitos, explica-se por que a interpretação de que a proposta só interessa à Argentina não nos parece correta e expõem-se os motivos pelos quais algumas das outras críticas, ainda que corretas, não invalidam a unificação monetária. O texto conclui com uma reflexão a respeito da necessidade de o Brasil definir que papel pretende desempenhar no contexto mundial, daqui a 15 ou 20 anos.

Gestão de pessoas e as universidades corporativas: dois lados da mesma moeda?

Este artigo descreve o modelo de universidade corporativa de uma instituição financeira, além de compreender as implicações dessa configuração de desenvolvimento profissional na gestão de pessoas da organização. De cunho qualitativo e descritivo, utilizou-se como estratégia de pesquisa um estudo de caso. Os resultados revelam a universidade corporativa como estratégia política e mercadológica, apresentando dois eixos distintos de atuação e de geração de valor: do ponto de vista do desenvolvimento dos funcionários, constata-se evolução significativa sob alguns aspectos e reiteram-se antigas dificuldades do Treinamento e Desenvolvimento (T&D). Evidencia-se aqui um distanciamento entre o discurso em torno da formação profissional e as práticas correspondentes. De maneira distinta, sob o âmbito da cadeia de valor, a atuação tem sido proativa, integrada aos negócios, gerando valor, na medida em que intensifica os relacionamentos com clientes, fornecedores, parceiros. Por essa via, a área de gestão de pessoas tem experimentado maior reconhecimento interno e externo, com conseqüente fortalecimento político.

Sustentabilidade e bem-estar humano : duas faces da mesma moeda? : estudo exploratório do bem estar subjectivo em comunidades intencionais que vivem segundo princípios de sustentabilidade

RESUMO - Nos últimos vinte anos tem-se assistido a uma crescente consciencialização de que os nossos estilos de vida são insustentáveis aos níveis económico, social e ambiental, o que tem repercussões na nossa saúde e bem-estar. Do crescimento populacional à pobreza e inequidade geradas pelo modelo de “crescimento económico” actual, à perda de biodiversidade e disrupção dos ecossistemas naturais, ao desmesurado crescimento urbano, à poluição e acumulação de desperdícios, às alterações climáticas, ao isolamento individual e à diminuição do capital social na sociedade do consumo: a necessidade de desenvolvimento sustentável e gerador de bem-estar nunca foi tão grande e evidente. Ao longo dos últimos anos têm surgido comunidades intencionais que se organizam segundo princípios de sustentabilidade, como um fenómeno de contra-cultura – as Ecoaldeias (Ecovillages). No entanto, os benefícios para a saúde e bem-estar deste tipo de comunidades não são ainda claros, sendo a experiência de investigação nesta área escassa. O estudo aqui proposto visa conhecer, a título exploratório, os níveis de bem-estar subjectivo em comunidades intencionais que vivem segundo princípios de sustentabilidade em Portugal, se estes níveis são melhores que na população em geral, e quais os factores percebidos que o influenciam. Para tal, terá componentes quantitativas e qualitativas e irá basear-se num questionário auto-administrado aos residentes das Ecoaldeias portuguesas, que inclui o Índice de Bem-estar Pessoal - uma escala de medição do Bem-estar subjectivo validada para a população portuguesa. As suas conclusões poderão contribuir para o desenvolvimento de abordagens mais elaboradas, capazes de edificar uma infra-estrutura teórica para o sistema de conceitos em foco, tão necessária quer a investigações com maior potencial explicativo, quer a decisões com melhor fundamento. ------------ ABSTRACT - Over the past twenty years there has been a growing awareness that the way we live is unsustainable at the economic, social and environmental level, which has impact in our health and wellbeing. From the population growth to poverty and inequity generated by the current model of economic growth, to biodiversity loss and disruption of natural ecosystems, to disproportionate urban growth, to pollution and waste accumulation, to climate change and the individual isolation social loss capital in the consumption society: the need for a development that is sustainable and generates wellbeing has never been greater and more evident. Over the last years intentional communities who live according to principles of sustainability have emerged, has a phenomenon of counter-culture - the ecovillages. The health and wellbeing benefits of this type of communities are not clear, as the investigation in this area is little. The aim of this exploratory study is to know the levels of subjective wellbeing of such communities, in Portugal, if these levels are different from the general population and what are the main perceived contributing factors. This study will have a qualitative and quantitative component and will be based in the application of a self-administered questionnaire that includes the Subjective Wellbeing Index, a measurement scale of subjective wellbeing, validated for the Portuguese population. Its findings may contribute to the development of more elaborate approaches that allow to build a theoretical framework for the system of concepts focused, needed both for further investigations with more explanatory potential, as for more grounded decision-making, to tackle the challenges of sustainable development.

A moeda única europeia: o papel do euro no processo de integração europeia

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência Politica e Relações Internacionais, com especialização em Estudos Europeus

Orientalism and Imperialism in French West Africa. Considerations on travel literature, colonial tourism, and the desert as a “commodity” in Mauritania

In this article we intend to make a summary overview of the influence that literary production, originated under colonial mapping missions or later in travel writing, had in the construction and establishment of a discourse to advertise and promote tourism in Mauritania. To this end we will draw on travel narratives that are illustrative of different periods and that correspond in some way to discourses of otherness. In this specific case, such discourses relate to the “Moors” of the West African coast and were produced in various historical contexts. We will also consider the discourse present in the tourism promotion materials of the colonial period and we will demonstrate to what extent it can be engaged in a dialogue with 19th and 20th centuries’ Western colonial literature.

Moeda e monetarização coloniais. Uma aproximação ao caso Cabo-Verde no fim do período colonial (1961-1973).

Doutoramento em Economia.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.