Prediction of improvement in skin fibrosis in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: a EUSTAR analysis

OBJECTIVES Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. METHODS We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of >5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. RESULTS From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. CONCLUSIONS Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care.

A long-term prospective randomized controlled study of non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) treatment in scleroderma

The association of cyclophosphamide (CYC) and prednisone (PRED) for the treatment of lung fibrosis in systemic sclerosis (SSc) was only evaluated in uncontrolled studies, although in idiopathic interstitial lung disease (ILD) this association seems to be beneficial in patients with non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). Objectives: To treat SSc-ILD in a prospective open-label controlled study based on lung pattern during 12 months of treatment. Methods: A 3-year analysis was also performed. Twenty-four consecutive patients with SSc and ILD were submitted to an open lung biopsy. Eighteen patients (NSIP) were randomized in two groups: CYC versus CYC + PRED during 12 months. Lung function tests (diffusion lung capacity of monoxide carbone corrected for hemoglobin concentration (DLCO-Hb), forced vital capacity (FVC), total lung capacity) and Modified Rodnan Skin Score (MRSS) were performed before, after one of treatment and after 3 years from the end of the treatment. Results: Pulmonary function tests were similar in both groups on baseline. After 1 year of treatment, FVC% was comparable between CYC groups (p = 0.72) and in CYC + PRED (p = 0.40). Three years after the end of treatment, FVC% values (p = 0.39 in group CYC and p = 0.61 in CYC + PRED and p = 0.22 in CYC + PRED) and DLCO-Hb (p = 0.54 in CYC and p = 0.28 in CYC + PRED) were similar compared to 1 year of treatment. We observed a reduction of the MRSS in the CYC + PRED group after 1 year of treatment (p = 0.02); although after 3 years, MRSS values remained stable in both groups. Conclusions: CYC was effective to stabilize lung function parameters in NSIP lung pattern of SSc disease for 3 years after the end of a 1-year therapy.

Mandibular Function is Severely Impaired in Systemic Sclerosis Patients

Aims: To evaluate the presence of temporomandibular disorders (TMD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients and its possible association with the severity of skin involvement. Methods: The presence of TMD was evaluated in 35 SSc women and 30 age- and sex-matched healthy controls by means of the anamnestic (A(i)) and clinical (D(i)) Helkimo indices; the jaw mobility was further analyzed (M(I)). Skin involvement was scored by the Modified Rodnan Skin Score (MRSS). Results: Signs and symptoms of TMD were more frequent in SSc patients than in controls, the frequency distribution of the different clinical dysfunction indices differing significantly (P < .001) between patients (D(i)0 8.6%, D(i)I 48.6%, D(i)II 22.8%, and D(i)III 20%) and controls (D(i)0 50%, D(i)I 33.3%, and D(i)II 16.7%). Cyclophosphamide for severe and rapidly progressive cutaneous fibrosis was prescribed in six out of seven patients with severe signs (D(i)III), in contrast this treatment was indicated for only two out of 25 patients with mild to moderate signs (D(i)I and D(i)II, P <. 001). Impaired jaw mobility was more frequent in SSc patients than controls (P < .001). It was severe in 77.1% (M(I)II) and mild in 22.9% (M(1)I) of the cases, in contrast to controls (M(I)0 33.4%, M(I)I 53.3%, and M(I)II 13.3%; P < .001). Approximately half of SSc patients with severe (M(I)II) but none of those with mild impairment were on cyclophosphamide treatment for severe cutaneous fibrosis (P = .02). Conclusion: Severe signs of TMD according to the anamnestic and clinical Helkimo indices were very frequent in SSc patients. J OROFAC PAIN 2010;24:197-202

Pentoxyphylline in association with vitamin E reduces cutaneous fibrosis in systemic sclerosis

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a disorder characterized by skin thickness and vasculopathy. The objective of the study was to evaluate the therapeutic effect and safety of the association of pentoxyphylline and vitamin E in SSc patients. Twelve SSc patients (American College of Rheumatology criteria) enrolled this 24-week open-label study. Patients received daily 800 mg of pentoxyphylline and 800 UI of vitamin E and were evaluated at 4-week interval. The primary efficacy endpoint was the change in Modified Rodnan Skin Score (MRSS) at week 24. Nine diffuse SSc patients treated 6 months with cyclophosphamide were used as a historical control group. The mean age of the treated group was 43.6 years, and ten of 12 (84%) patients were women. Their mean MRSS reduced from 25.7 to 18.7 (p = 0.03) at 16th week and remained significantly reduced throughout the study. In contrast, only a trend of MRSS reduction was observed in the historical control group (p = 0.06). Two patients started the study with active ischemic ulcers and ended with a complete healing of them. No serious side effects were reported. Pentoxyphylline and vitamin E might be an alternative therapeutic approach in SSc patients.

Survival, Causes of Death, and Prognostic Factors in Systemic Sclerosis: Analysis of 947 Brazilian Patients

Objective. To analyze survival, prognostic factors, and causes of death in a large cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods. From 1991 to 2010, 947 patients with SSc were treated at 2 referral university centers in Brazil. Causes of death were considered SSc-related and non-SSc-related. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors. Survival at 5 and 10 years was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results. One hundred sixty-eight patients died during the followup. Among the 110 deaths considered related to SSc, there was predominance of lung (48.1%) and heart (24.5%) involvement. Most of the 58 deaths not related to SSc were caused by infection, cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease, and cancer. Male sex, modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) > 20, osteoarticular involvement, lung involvement, and renal crisis were the main prognostic factors associated to death. Overall survival rate was 90% for 5 years and 84% for 10 years. Patients presented worse prognosis if they had diffuse SSc (85% vs 92% at 5 yrs, respectively, and 77% vs 87% at 10 yrs, compared to limited SSc), male sex (77% vs 90% at 5 yrs and 64% vs 86% at 10 yrs, compared to female sex), and mRSS > 20 (83% vs 90% at 5 yrs and 66% vs 86% at 10 yrs, compared to mRSS <20). Conclusion. Survival was worse in male patients with diffuse SSc, and lung and heart involvement represented the main causes of death in this South American series of patients with SSc. (First Release Aug 15 2012; J Rheumatol 2012;39:1971-8; doi:10.3899/jrheum.111582)

Increased bone mineral density at the hypoxia prone site of the juxta-articular metacarpal bone in patients with limited systemic sclerosis: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES Low levels of oxygen has been shown to be involved in the induction of osteogenesis, particularly in bone repair. It is unknown whether hypoxia leads to osteogenesis at the hypoxia prone skeletal sites in limited systemic sclerosis. This study determined the total and trabecular volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) at the hypoxia prone site of the juxta-articular metacarpal bone. METHODS In this cross-sectional study, female patients with limited systemic sclerosis were included and compared to healthy controls. Peripheral quantitative computed tomography was used to measure cross-sectional area, total vBMD, and trabecular vBMD at the radius, the tibia and the third metacarpal bone. Disease severity was assessed by the modified Rodnan Skin Score. RESULTS Twenty consecutive patients were included in the sclerosis group and 20 in the control group. Mean age was 60 years (range 52-68 years), and mean disease duration was 45 months (range 4-156 months). Age, height, and weight were comparable between the groups. The mean modified Rodnan Skin Score was 1.78 (range 0 to 8). The sclerosis group showed both higher total and trabecular vBMD at the distal metacarpal bone (p=0.05 and 0.04, respectively). vBMD of the tibia and radius did not differ in both groups. CONCLUSIONS vBMD at the juxta-articular metacarpal bone in patients with limited systemic sclerosis is increased, possibly due to an alteration in local bone metabolism and hypoxia induced local osteogenesis.

Incidence and predictors of cutaneous manifestations during the early course of systemic sclerosis: a 10-year longitudinal study from the EUSTAR database.

OBJECTIVES To longitudinally map the onset and identify risk factors for skin sclerosis and digital ulcers (DUs) in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) from an early time point after the onset of Raynaud's phenomenon (RP) in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort. METHODS 695 patients with SSc with a baseline visit within 1 year after RP onset were followed in the prospective multinational EUSTAR database. During the 10-year observation period, cumulative probabilities of cutaneous lesions were assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors. RESULTS The median modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) peaked 1 year after RP onset, and was 15 points. The 1-year probability to develop an mRSS ≥2 in at least one area of the arms and legs was 69% and 25%, respectively. Twenty-five per cent of patients developed diffuse cutaneous involvement in the first year after RP onset. This probability increased to 36% during the subsequent 2 years. Only 6% of patients developed diffuse cutaneous SSc thereafter. The probability to develop DUs increased to a maximum of 70% at the end of the 10-year observation. The main factors associated with diffuse cutaneous SSc were the presence of anti-RNA polymerase III autoantibodies, followed by antitopoisomerase autoantibodies and male sex. The main factor associated with incident DUs was the presence of antitopoisomerase autoantibodies. CONCLUSION Early after RP onset, cutaneous manifestations exhibit rapid kinetics in SSc. This should be accounted for in clinical trials aiming to prevent skin worsening.

Risk Score to Predict the Outcome of Patients with Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis

Background: Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). Method: We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENO-PORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. Results: The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of 6 3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Validation of the DRAGON Score in 12 Stroke Centers in Anterior and Posterior Circulation.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The DRAGON score predicts functional outcome in the hyperacute phase of intravenous thrombolysis treatment of ischemic stroke patients. We aimed to validate the score in a large multicenter cohort in anterior and posterior circulation. METHODS: Prospectively collected data of consecutive ischemic stroke patients who received intravenous thrombolysis in 12 stroke centers were merged (n=5471). We excluded patients lacking data necessary to calculate the score and patients with missing 3-month modified Rankin scale scores. The final cohort comprised 4519 eligible patients. We assessed the performance of the DRAGON score with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the whole cohort for both good (modified Rankin scale score, 0-2) and miserable (modified Rankin scale score, 5-6) outcomes. RESULTS: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.84 (0.82-0.85) for miserable outcome and 0.82 (0.80-0.83) for good outcome. Proportions of patients with good outcome were 96%, 93%, 78%, and 0% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, and 8 to 10 score points, respectively. Proportions of patients with miserable outcome were 0%, 2%, 4%, 89%, and 97% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, 8, and 9 to 10 points, respectively. When tested separately for anterior and posterior circulation, there was no difference in performance (P=0.55); areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.84 (0.83-0.86) and 0.82 (0.78-0.87), respectively. No sex-related difference in performance was observed (P=0.25). CONCLUSIONS: The DRAGON score showed very good performance in the large merged cohort in both anterior and posterior circulation strokes. The DRAGON score provides rapid estimation of patient prognosis and supports clinical decision-making in the hyperacute phase of stroke care (eg, when invasive add-on strategies are considered).

An integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: The ASTRAL score.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a simple, integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using variables readily available after emergency room admission. METHODS: Logistic regression was performed in the derivation cohort of previously independent patients with AIS (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne [ASTRAL]) to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score >2). An integer-based point-scoring system for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated by their β-coefficients; the overall score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The model was validated internally using a 2-fold cross-validation technique and externally in 2 independent cohorts (Athens and Vienna Stroke Registries). RESULTS: Age (A), severity of stroke (S) measured by admission NIH Stroke Scale score, stroke onset to admission time (T), range of visual fields (R), acute glucose (A), and level of consciousness (L) were identified as independent predictors of unfavorable outcome in 1,645 patients in ASTRAL. Their β-coefficients were multiplied by 4 and rounded to the closest integer to generate the score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score in the ASTRAL cohort was 0.850. The score was well calibrated in the derivation (p = 0.43) and validation cohorts (0.22 [Athens, n = 1,659] and 0.49 [Vienna, n = 653]). AUCs were 0.937 (Athens), 0.771 (Vienna), and 0.902 (when pooled). An ASTRAL score of 31 indicates a 50% likelihood of unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score is a simple integer-based score to predict functional outcome using 6 readily available items at hospital admission. It performed well in double external validation and may be a useful tool for clinical practice and stroke research.

External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

Validation of the DRAGON score in 12 stroke centers in anterior and posterior circulation

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The DRAGON score predicts functional outcome in the hyperacute phase of intravenous thrombolysis treatment of ischemic stroke patients. We aimed to validate the score in a large multicenter cohort in anterior and posterior circulation. METHODS Prospectively collected data of consecutive ischemic stroke patients who received intravenous thrombolysis in 12 stroke centers were merged (n=5471). We excluded patients lacking data necessary to calculate the score and patients with missing 3-month modified Rankin scale scores. The final cohort comprised 4519 eligible patients. We assessed the performance of the DRAGON score with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the whole cohort for both good (modified Rankin scale score, 0-2) and miserable (modified Rankin scale score, 5-6) outcomes. RESULTS Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.84 (0.82-0.85) for miserable outcome and 0.82 (0.80-0.83) for good outcome. Proportions of patients with good outcome were 96%, 93%, 78%, and 0% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, and 8 to 10 score points, respectively. Proportions of patients with miserable outcome were 0%, 2%, 4%, 89%, and 97% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, 8, and 9 to 10 points, respectively. When tested separately for anterior and posterior circulation, there was no difference in performance (P=0.55); areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.84 (0.83-0.86) and 0.82 (0.78-0.87), respectively. No sex-related difference in performance was observed (P=0.25). CONCLUSIONS The DRAGON score showed very good performance in the large merged cohort in both anterior and posterior circulation strokes. The DRAGON score provides rapid estimation of patient prognosis and supports clinical decision-making in the hyperacute phase of stroke care (eg, when invasive add-on strategies are considered).

The single-phase induction motor:a critical appraisal of the rotating-field and cross-field theories with particular reference to skin effect

The purpose of this thesis is twofold: to examine the validity of the rotating-field and cross-field theories of the single-phase induction motor when applied to a cage rotor machine; and to examine the extent to which skin effect is likely to modify the characteristics of a cage rotor machine. A mathematical analysis is presented for a single-phase induction motor in which the rotor parameters are modified by skin effect. Although this is based on the usual type of ideal machine, a new form of model rotor allows approximations for skin effect phenomena to be included as an integral part of the analysis. Performance equations appropriate to the rotating-field and cross-field theories are deduced, and the corresponding explanations for the steady-state mode of operation are critically examined. The evaluation of the winding currents and developed torque is simplified by the introduction of new dimensionless factors which are functions of the resistance/reactance ratios of the rotor and the speed. Tables of the factors are included for selected numerical values of the parameter ratios, and these are used to deduce typical operating characteristics for both cage and wound rotor machines. It is shown that a qualitative explanation of the mode of operation of a cage rotor machine is obtained from either theory; but the operating characteristics must be deduced from the performance equations of the rotating-field theory, because of the restrictions on the values of the rotor parameters imposed by skin effect.

Delay in the Diagnosis of Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis Influence on Outcome

Background and Purpose-Diagnostic delay of cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis may have an impact on outcome. Methods-In the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) cohort (624 patients with cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis), we analyzed the predictors and the impact on outcome of diagnostic delay. Primary outcome was a modified Rankin Scale score > 2 at the end of follow-up. Secondary outcomes were modified Rankin Scale score 0 to 1 at the end of follow-up, death, and visual deficits (visual acuity or visual field). Results-Median delay was 7 days (interquartile range, 3 to 16). Patients with disturbance of consciousness (P < 0.001) and of mental status (P = 0.042), seizure (< 0.001), and with parenchymal lesions on admission CT/MR (P < 0.001) were diagnosed earlier, whereas men (P = 0.01) and those with isolated intracranial hypertension syndrome (P = 0.04) were diagnosed later. Between patients diagnosed earlier and later than the median delay, no statistically significant differences were found in the primary (P = 0.33) and in secondary outcomes: modified Rankin Scale score 0 to 1 (P = 0.86) or deaths (P = 0.53). Persistent visual deficits were more frequent in patients diagnosed later (P = 0.05). In patients with isolated intracranial hypertension syndrome, modified Rankin Scale score > 2 at the end of follow-up was more frequent in patients diagnosed later (P = 0.02). Conclusions-Diagnostic delay was considerable in this cohort and was associated with an increased risk of visual deficit. In patients with isolated intracranial hypertension syndrome, diagnostic delay was also associated with death or dependency. (Stroke. 2009; 40: 3133-3138.)