Analysis of the effects of damping in the models validation

The search for better performance in the structural systems has been taken to more refined models, involving the analysis of a growing number of details, which should be correctly formulated aiming at defining a representative model of the real system. Representative models demand a great detailing of the project and search for new techniques of evaluation and analysis. Model updating is one of this technologies, it can be used to improve the predictive capabilities of computer-based models. This paper presents a FRF-based finite element model updating procedure whose the updating variables are physical parameters of the model. It includes the damping effects in the updating procedure assuming proportional and non proportional damping mechanism. The updating parameters are defined at an element level or macro regions of the model. So, the parameters are adjusted locally, facilitating the physical interpretation of the adjusting of the model. Different tests for simulated and experimental data are discussed aiming at evaluating the characteristics and potentialities of the methodology.

Numerical modeling and experimental validation of the recrystallization behaviour in the extrusion of 6XXX aluminum alloys

The microstructure of 6XXX aluminum alloys deeply affects mechanical, crash, corrosion and aesthetic properties of extruded profiles. Unfortunately, grain structure evolution during manufacturing processes is a complex phenomenon because several process and material parameters such as alloy chemical composition, temperature, extrusion speed, tools geometries, quenching and thermal treatment parameters affect the grain evolution during the manufacturing process. The aim of the present PhD thesis was the analysis of the recrystallization kinetics during the hot extrusion of 6XXX aluminum alloys and the development of reliable recrystallization models to be used in FEM codes for the microstructure prediction at a die design stage. Experimental activities have been carried out in order to acquire data for the recrystallization models development, validation and also to investigate the effect of process parameters and die design on the microstructure of the final component. The experimental campaign reported in this thesis involved the extrusion of AA6063, AA6060 and AA6082 profiles with different process parameters in order to provide a reliable amount of data for the models validation. A particular focus was made to investigate the PCG defect evolution during the extrusion of medium-strength alloys such as AA6082. Several die designs and process conditions were analysed in order to understand the influence of each of them on the recrystallization behaviour of the investigated alloy. From the numerical point of view, innovative models for the microstructure prediction were developed and validated over the extrusion of industrial-scale profiles with complex geometries, showing a good matching in terms of the grain size and surface recrystallization prediction. The achieved results suggest the reliability of the developed models and their application in the industrial field for process and material properties optimization at a die-design stage.

Pulmonary embolism severity index and troponin testing for the selection of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Summary Background: The combination of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and troponin testing could help physicians identify appropriate patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for early hospital discharge. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a total of 567 patients from a single center registry with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. On the basis of the PESI, each patient was classified into 1 of 5 classes (I to V). At the time of hospital admission, patients had troponin I (cTnI) levels measured. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality within 30 days after diagnosis. We calculated the mortality rates in 4 patient groups: group 1: PESI class I-II plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 2: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 3: PESI classes I-II plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1); and group 4: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1). Results: The study cohort had a 30-day mortality of 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.6 to 12.5%). Mortality rates in the 4 groups were 1.3%, 14.2%, 0% and 15.4%, respectively. Compared to non-elevated cTnl, the low-risk PESI had a higher negative predictive value (NPV) (98.9% vs 90.8%) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) (0.1 vs 0.9) for predicting mortality. The addition of non-elevated cTnI to low-risk PESI did not improve the NPV or the NLR compared to either test alone. Conclusions: Compared to cTnl testing, PESI classification more accurately identified patients with PE who are at low risk of all-cause death within 30-days of presentation.

Thermodynamic efficiency and entropy production in the climate system

We present an outlook on the climate system thermodynamics. First, we construct an equivalent Carnot engine with efficiency and frame the Lorenz energy cycle in a macroscale thermodynamic context. Then, by exploiting the second law, we prove that the lower bound to the entropy production is times the integrated absolute value of the internal entropy fluctuations. An exergetic interpretation is also proposed. Finally, the controversial maximum entropy production principle is reinterpreted as requiring the joint optimization of heat transport and mechanical work production. These results provide tools for climate change analysis and for climate models’ validation.

Estudo dos parâmetros de extração de fenol de efluentes aquosos por um tensoativo não iônico

Environmental sustainability has become one of the topics of greatest interest in industry, mainly due to effluent generation. Phenols are found in many industries effluents, these industries might be refineries, coal processing, pharmaceutical, plastics, paints and paper and pulp industries. Because phenolic compounds are toxic to humans and aquatic organisms, Federal Resolution CONAMA No. 430 of 13.05.2011 limits the maximum content of phenols, in 0.5 mg.L-1, for release in freshwater bodies. In the effluents treatment, the liquid-liquid extraction process is the most economical for the phenol recovery, because consumes little energy, but in most cases implements an organic solvent, and the use of it can cause some environmental problems due to the high toxicity of this compound. Because of this, exists a need for new methodologies, which aims to replace these solvents for biodegradable ones. Some literature studies demonstrate the feasibility of phenolic compounds removing from aqueous effluents, by biodegradable solvents. In this extraction kind called "Cloud Point Extraction" is used a nonionic surfactant as extracting agent of phenolic compounds. In order to optimize the phenol extraction process, this paper studies the mathematical modeling and optimization of extraction parameters and investigates the effect of the independent variables in the process. A 32 full factorial design has been done with operating temperature and surfactant concentration as independent variables and, parameters extraction: Volumetric fraction of coacervate phase, surfactant and residual concentration of phenol in dilute phase after separation phase and phenol extraction efficiency, as dependent variables. To achieve the objectives presented before, the work was carried out in five steps: (i) selection of some literature data, (ii) use of Box-Behnken model to find out mathematical models that describes the process of phenol extraction, (iii) Data analysis were performed using STATISTICA 7.0 and the analysis of variance was used to assess the model significance and prediction (iv) models optimization using the response surface method (v) Mathematical models validation using additional measures, from samples different from the ones used to construct the model. The results showed that the mathematical models found are able to calculate the effect of the surfactant concentration and the operating temperature in each extraction parameter studied, respecting the boundaries used. The models optimization allowed the achievement of consistent and applicable results in a simple and quick way leading to high efficiency in process operation.

A SIMPLIFIED MODEL FOR EVALUATING TIRE WEAR DURING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN

In the field of vehicle dynamics, commercial software can aid the designer during the conceptual and detailed design phases. Simulations using these tools can quickly provide specific design metrics, such as yaw and lateral velocity, for standard maneuvers. However, it remains challenging to correlate these metrics with empirical quantities that depend on many external parameters and design specifications. This scenario is the case with tire wear, which depends on the frictional work developed by the tire-road contact. In this study, an approach is proposed to estimate the tire-road friction during steady-state longitudinal and cornering maneuvers. Using this approach, a qualitative formula for tire wear evaluation is developed, and conceptual design analyses of cornering maneuvers are performed using simplified vehicle models. The influence of some design parameters such as cornering stiffness, the distance between the axles, and the steer angle ratio between the steering axles for vehicles with two steering axles is evaluated. The proposed methodology allows the designer to predict tire wear using simplified vehicle models during the conceptual design phase.

Reynolds-stress turbulence model in the KIVA code for engine simulation

A Reynolds-Stress Turbulence Model has been incorporated with success into the KIVA code, a computational fluid dynamics hydrocode for three-dimensional simulation of fluid flow in engines. The newly implemented Reynolds-stress turbulence model greatly improves the robustness of KIVA, which in its original version has only eddy-viscosity turbulence models. Validation of the Reynolds-stress turbulence model is accomplished by conducting pipe-flow and channel-flow simulations, and comparing the computed results with experimental and direct numerical simulation data. Flows in engines of various geometry and operating conditions are calculated using the model, to study the complex flow fields as well as confirm the model’s validity. Results show that the Reynolds-stress turbulence model is able to resolve flow details such as swirl and recirculation bubbles. The model is proven to be an appropriate choice for engine simulations, with consistency and robustness, while requiring relatively low computational effort.

Fully Automatic CT Segmentation for Computer-Assisted Pre-operative Planning of Hip Arthroscopy

Extraction of both pelvic and femoral surface models of a hip joint from CT data for computer-assisted pre-operative planning of hip arthroscopy is addressed. We present a method for a fully automatic image segmentation of a hip joint. Our method works by combining fast random forest (RF) regression based landmark detection, atlas-based segmentation, with articulated statistical shape model (aSSM) based hip joint reconstruction. The two fundamental contributions of our method are: (1) An improved fast Gaussian transform (IFGT) is used within the RF regression framework for a fast and accurate landmark detection, which then allows for a fully automatic initialization of the atlas-based segmentation; and (2) aSSM based fitting is used to preserve hip joint structure and to avoid penetration between the pelvic and femoral models. Validation on 30 hip CT images show that our method achieves high performance in segmenting pelvis, left proximal femur, and right proximal femur surfaces with an average accuracy of 0.59 mm, 0.62 mm, and 0.58 mm, respectively.

Análise quantitativa de dispersão de vazamentos de substâncias inflamáveis e/ou tóxicas em ambientes com barreiras ou semi confinados.

Com o atual desenvolvimento industrial e tecnológico da sociedade, a presença de substâncias inflamáveis e/ou tóxicas aumentou significativamente em um grande número de atividades. A possível dispersão de gases perigosos em instalações de armazenamento ou em operações de transporte representam uma grande ameaça à saúde e ao meio ambiente. Portanto, a caracterização de uma nuvem inflamável e/ou tóxica é um ponto crítico na análise quantitativa de riscos. O objetivo principal desta tese foi fornecer novas perspectivas que pudessem auxiliar analistas de risco envolvidos na análise de dispersões em cenários complexos, por exemplo, cenários com barreiras ou semi-confinados. A revisão bibliográfica mostrou que, tradicionalmente, modelos empíricos e integrais são usados na análise de dispersão de substâncias tóxicas / inflamáveis, fornecendo estimativas rápidas e geralmente confiáveis ao descrever cenários simples (por exemplo, dispersão em ambientes sem obstruções sobre terreno plano). No entanto, recentemente, o uso de ferramentas de CFD para simular dispersões aumentou de forma significativa. Estas ferramentas permitem modelar cenários mais complexos, como os que ocorrem em espaços semi-confinados ou com a presença de barreiras físicas. Entre todas as ferramentas CFD disponíveis, consta na bibliografia que o software FLACS® tem bom desempenho na simulação destes cenários. Porém, como outras ferramentas similares, ainda precisa ser totalmente validado. Após a revisão bibliográfica sobre testes de campo já executados ao longo dos anos, alguns testes foram selecionados para realização de um exame preliminar de desempenho da ferramenta CFD utilizado neste estudo. Foram investigadas as possíveis fontes de incertezas em termos de capacidade de reprodutibilidade, de dependência de malha e análise de sensibilidade das variáveis de entrada e parâmetros de simulação. Os principais resultados desta fase foram moldados como princípios práticos a serem utilizados por analistas de risco ao realizar análise de dispersão com a presença de barreiras utilizando ferramentas CFD. Embora a revisão bibliográfica tenha mostrado alguns dados experimentais disponíveis na literatura, nenhuma das fontes encontradas incluem estudos detalhados sobre como realizar simulações de CFD precisas nem fornecem indicadores precisos de desempenho. Portanto, novos testes de campo foram realizados a fim de oferecer novos dados para estudos de validação mais abrangentes. Testes de campo de dispersão de nuvem de propano (com e sem a presença de barreiras obstruindo o fluxo) foram realizados no campo de treinamento da empresa Can Padró Segurança e Proteção (em Barcelona). Quatro testes foram realizados, consistindo em liberações de propano com vazões de até 0,5 kg/s, com duração de 40 segundos em uma área de descarga de 700 m2. Os testes de campo contribuíram para a reavaliação dos pontos críticos mapeados durante as primeiras fases deste estudo e forneceram dados experimentais para serem utilizados pela comunidade internacional no estudo de dispersão e validação de modelos. Simulações feitas utilizando-se a ferramenta CFD foram comparadas com os dados experimentais obtidos nos testes de campo. Em termos gerais, o simulador mostrou bom desempenho em relação às taxas de concentração da nuvem. O simulador reproduziu com sucesso a geometria complexa e seus efeitos sobre a dispersão da nuvem, mostrando claramente o efeito da barreira na distribuição das concentrações. No entanto, as simulações não foram capazes de representar toda a dinâmica da dispersão no que concerne aos efeitos da variação do vento, uma vez que as nuvens simuladas diluíram mais rapidamente do que nuvens experimentais.

Time scale analysis for fluidizedbedmeltgranulation-II: binder spreading rate

The spreading time of liquid binder droplet on the surface a primary particle is analyzed for Fluidized Bed Melt Granulation (FBMG). As discussed in the first paper of this series (Chua et al., in press) the droplet spreading rate has been identified as one of the important parameters affecting the probability of particles aggregation in FBMG. In this paper, the binder droplet spreading time has been estimated using Computational Fluid Dynamic modeling (CFD) based on Volume of Fluid approach (VOF). A simplified analytical solution has been developed and tested to explore its validity for predicting the spreading time. For the purpose of models validation, the droplet spreading evolution was recorded using a high speed video camera. Based on the validated model, a generalized correlative equation for binder spreading time is proposed. For the operating conditions considered here, the spreading time for Polyethylene Glycol (PEG1500) binder was found to fall within the range of 10-2 to 10-5 s. The study also included a number of other common binders used in FBMG. The results obtained here will be further used in paper III, where the binder solidification rate is discussed.

A multidimensionalidade da adaptação escolar na pré-adolescência

A presente investigação procura fomentar a reflexão e a compreensão do fenómeno da adaptação escolar. Partindo da exploração da literatura e de um conjunto de pressupostos teóricos de ordem desenvolvimental e ecológica, foi concetualmente delineado e testado um modelo multidimensional de adaptação escolar na pré-adolescência. O modelo examina principalmente dimensões sociais, mas também a dimensão académica e o nível socioeconómico familiar, propondo uma visão integrada da adaptação escolar. O estudo empírico desenvolveu-se junto de 706 estudantes pré-adolescentes e avaliou as perceções do próprio estudante e as perceções dos professores e pares acerca da competência social dos estudantes. O teste empírico ao Modelo de Adaptação Escolar evidencia um ajustamento global razoável, suportando as associações preconizadas entre as componentes da competência social e entre estas componentes sociais e a realização académica e o nível socioeconómico e cultural da família. Estes resultados sublinham a necessidade de considerar múltiplas facetas na avaliação e promoção da adaptação escolar, reconhecendo-se que esta engloba especialmente conexões entre a competência social e realização académica do estudante. Estes resultados serão ainda alvo de reflexão e discussão, sendo extraídas implicações para a investigação, teoria e intervenção.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Two different 3D biogeochemical models for the NW mediterranean sea: validation with Meris data and intercomparison

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of New South Wales from February to June the 2007. Two different biogeochemical models are coupled to a three dimensional configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Ahumada and Cruzado, 2007). The first biogeochemical model (BLANES) is the three-dimensional version of the model described by Bahamon and Cruzado (2003) and computes the nitrogen fluxes through six compartments using semi-empirical descriptions of biological processes. The second biogeochemical model (BIOMEC) is the biomechanical NPZD model described in Baird et al. (2004), which uses a combination of physiological and physical descriptions to quantify the rates of planktonic interactions. Physical descriptions include, for example, the diffusion of nutrients to phytoplankton cells and the encounter rate of predators and prey. The link between physical and biogeochemical processes in both models is expressed by the advection-diffusion of the non-conservative tracers. The similarities in the mathematical formulation of the biogeochemical processes in the two models are exploited to determine the parameter set for the biomechanical model that best fits the parameter set used in the first model. Three years of integration have been carried out for each model to reach the so called perpetual year run for biogeochemical conditions. Outputs from both models are averaged monthly and then compared to remote sensing images obtained from sensor MERIS for chlorophyll.