822 resultados para Models and Performance Analysis


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Tese submetida à Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior Técnico e aprovada em provas públicas para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia.

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An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

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The objective of the thesis was to analyse several process configurations for the production of electricity from biomass. Process simulation models using AspenPlus aimed at calculating the industrial performance of power plant concepts were built, tested, and used for analysis. The criteria used in analysis were performance and cost. All of the advanced systems appear to have higher efficiencies than the commercial reference, the Rankine cycle. However, advanced systems typically have a higher cost of electricity (COE) than the Rankine power plant. High efficiencies do not reduce fuel costs enough to compensate for the high capital costs of advanced concepts. The successful reduction of capital costs would appear to be the key to the introduction of the new systems. Capital costs account for a considerable, often dominant, part of the cost of electricity in these concepts. All of the systems have higher specific investment costs than the conventional industrial alternative, i.e. the Rankine power plant; Combined beat and power production (CUP) is currently the only industrial area of application in which bio-power costs can be considerably reduced to make them competitive. Based on the results of this work, AsperiPlus is an appropriate simulation platform. How-ever, the usefulness of the models could be improved if a number of unit operations were modelled in greater detail. The dryer, gasifier, fast pyrolysis, gas engine and gas turbine models could be improved.

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This paper is on the design and performance analysis of practical distributed space-time codes for wireless relay networks with multiple antennas terminals. The amplify-andforward scheme is used in a way that each relay transmits a scaled version of the linear combination of the received symbols. We propose distributed generalized quasi-orthogonal space-time codes which are distributed among the source antennas and relays, and valid for any number of relays. Assuming M-PSK and M-QAM signals, we derive a formula for the symbol error probability of the investigated scheme over Rayleigh fading channels. For sufficiently large SNR, this paper derives closed-form average SER expression. The simplicity of the asymptotic results provides valuable insights into the performance of cooperative networks and suggests means of optimizing them. Our analytical results have been confirmed by simulation results, using full-rate full-diversity distributed codes.

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This paper presents the design and performance analysis of a detector based on suprathreshold stochastic resonance (SSR) for the detection of deterministic signals in heavy-tailed non-Gaussian noise. The detector consists of a matched filter preceded by an SSR system which acts as a preprocessor. The SSR system is composed of an array of 2-level quantizers with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) noise added to the input of each quantizer. The standard deviation sigma of quantizer noise is chosen to maximize the detection probability for a given false alarm probability. In the case of a weak signal, the optimum sigma also minimizes the mean-square difference between the output of the quantizer array and the output of the nonlinear transformation of the locally optimum detector. The optimum sigma depends only on the probability density functions (pdfs) of input noise and quantizer noise for weak signals, and also on the signal amplitude and the false alarm probability for non-weak signals. Improvement in detector performance stems primarily from quantization and to a lesser extent from the optimization of quantizer noise. For most input noise pdfs, the performance of the SSR detector is very close to that of the optimum detector. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The development of cryogenic technology and high temperature superconducting (HTS) materials has seen continued interest worldwide in the development of HTS machines since the late 1980s. In this paper, the authors present a conceptual design of a 2.5 MW class synchronous motor. The structure of the motor is specified and the motor performance is analyzed via a three-dimensional model using the finite element method (FEM). Rotor optimization is carried out to decrease the harmonic components in the air gap field generated by HTS tapes. Based on the results of this 3D simulation, the determination of the operating conditions and load angle is discussed with consideration to the HTS material properties. The economic viability of air-core and iron-core designs is compared. The results show that this type of HTS machine has the potential to achieve an economic, efficient and effective machine design, which operates at a low load angle, and this design process provides a practical way to simulate and analyze the performance of such machines.

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The paper presents the design and performance analysis of a 6 MW medium-speed Brushless Doubly-Fed Induction Generation (Brushless DFIG) for a wind turbine drivetrain. Two machines with different frame sizes have been designed to show the flexibility of the design procedure. The mediumspeed Brushless DFIG in combination with a two stage gearbox offers a low-cost, low-maintenance and reliable drivetrain for wind turbine applications.

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Several studies in the last decade have pointed out that many devices, such as computers, are often left powered on even when idle, just to make them available and reachable on the network, leading to large energy waste. The concept of network connectivity proxy (NCP) has been proposed as an effective means to improve energy efficiency. It impersonates the presence of networked devices that are temporally unavailable, by carrying out background networking routines on their behalf. Hence, idle devices could be put into low-power states and save energy. Several architectural alternatives and the applicability of this concept to different protocols and applications have been investigated. However, there is no clear understanding of the limitations and issues of this approach in current networking scenarios. This paper extends the knowledge about the NCP by defining an extended set of tasks that the NCP can carry out, by introducing a suitable communication interface to control NCP operation, and by designing, implementing, and evaluating a functional prototype.

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This paper employs a unique extension-decomposition-aggregation (EDA) scheme to solve the formation flight control problem for multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The corresponding decentralised longitudinal and lateral formation autopilots are novelly designed to maintain the overall formation stability when encountering changes of the formation error and topologies. The concept of propagation layer number (PLN) is also proposed to provide an intuitive criterion to judge which type of formation topology is more suitable to minimise formation error propagation (FEP). The criterion states that the smaller the PLN of the formation is, the quicker the response to the formation error is. A smaller PLN also means that the resulting topology provides better prevention to the FEP. Simulation studies of formation flight of multiple Aerosonde UAVs demonstrate that the designed formation controller based on the EDA strategy performs satisfactorily in maintaining the overall formation stable, and the bidirectional partial-mesh topology is found to provide the best overall response to the formation error propagation based on the PLN criterion.

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A case study on the tendering process and cost/time performance of a public building project in Ghana is conducted. Competitive bids submitted by five contractors for the project, in which contractors were required to prepare their own quantities, were analyzed to compare differences in their pricing levels and risk/requirement perceptions. Queries sent to the consultants at the tender stage were also analyzed to identify the significant areas of concern to contractors in relation to the tender documentation. The five bidding prices were significantly different. The queries submitted for clarifications were significantly different, although a few were similar. Using a before-and-after experiment, the expected cost/time estimate at the start of the project was compared to the actual cost/time values, i.e. what happened in the actual construction phase. The analysis showed that the project exceeded its expected cost by 18% and its planned time by 210%. Variations and inadequate design were the major reasons. Following an exploration of these issues, an alternative tendering mechanism is recommended to clients. A shift away from the conventional approach of awarding work based on price, and serious consideration of alternative procurement routes can help clients in Ghana obtain better value for money on their projects.