Ciencias de la complejidad: estado actual

Los aportes teóricos y aplicados de la complejidad en economía han tomado tantas direcciones y han sido tan frenéticos en las últimas décadas, que no existe un trabajo reciente, hasta donde conocemos, que los compile y los analice de forma integrada. El objetivo de este proyecto, por tanto, es desarrollar un estado situacional de las diferentes aplicaciones conceptuales, teóricas, metodológicas y tecnológicas de las ciencias de la complejidad en la economía. Asimismo, se pretende analizar las tendencias recientes en el estudio de la complejidad de los sistemas económicos y los horizontes que las ciencias de la complejidad ofrecen de cara al abordaje de los fenómenos económicos del mundo globalizado contemporáneo.

Onboard and real-time artificial satellite orbit determination using GPS

An algorithm for real-time and onboard orbit determination applying the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) method is developed. Aiming at a very simple and still fairly accurate orbit determination, an analysis is performed to ascertain an adequacy of modeling complexity versus accuracy. The minimum set of to-be-estimated states to reach the level of accuracy of tens of meters is found to have at least the position, velocity, and user clock offset components. The dynamical model is assessed through several tests, covering force model, numerical integration scheme and step size, and simplified variational equations. The measurement model includes only relevant effects to the order of meters. The EKF method is chosen to be the simplest real-time estimation algorithm with adequate tuning of its parameters. In the developed procedure, the obtained position and velocity errors along a day vary from 15 to 20 m and from 0.014 to 0.018 m/s, respectively, with standard deviation from 6 to 10 m and from 0.006 to 0.008 m/s, respectively, with the SA either on or off. The results, as well as analysis of the final adopted models used, are presented in this work. © 2013 Ana Paula Marins Chiaradia et al.

Um novo modelo de transformadores trifásicos para análise harmônica trifásica em sistemas de distribuição

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.

Modeling soil system: complexity under your feet

A clear statement in these lines textually cited (Byers et al., 1938) defines the framework of this special issue: “True soil is the product of the action of climate and living organism upon the parent material, as conditioned by the local relief. The length of time during which these forces are operative is of great importance in determining the character of the ultimate product. Drainage conditions are also important and are controlled by local relief, by the nature of the parent material or underlying rock strata, or by the amount of precipitation in relation to rate of percolation and runoff water. There are, therefore, five principal factors of soil formation: Parent material, climate, biological activity, relief and time. These soil forming factors are interdependent, each modifying the effectiveness of the others.” Due to these various processes associated to its formation and genesis soil dynamics reveals high complexity that creates several levels of structure using this term in a broad sense

Improving novice analyst performance in modeling the sequence diagram in systems analysis: A cognitive complexity approach

The Unified Modeling Language (UML) has quickly become the industry standard for object-oriented software development. It is being widely used in organizations and institutions around the world. However, UML is often found to be too complex for novice systems analysts. Although prior research has identified difficulties novice analysts encounter in learning UML, no viable solution has been proposed to address these difficulties. Sequence-diagram modeling, in particular, has largely been overlooked. The sequence diagram models the behavioral aspects of an object-oriented software system in terms of interactions among its building blocks, i.e. objects and classes. It is one of the most commonly-used UML diagrams in practice. However, there has been little research on sequence-diagram modeling. The current literature scarcely provides effective guidelines for developing a sequence diagram. Such guidelines will be greatly beneficial to novice analysts who, unlike experienced systems analysts, do not possess relevant prior experience to easily learn how to develop a sequence diagram. There is the need for an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novices. This dissertation reports a research study that identified novice difficulties in modeling a sequence diagram and proposed a technique called CHOP (CHunking, Ordering, Patterning), which was designed to reduce the cognitive load by addressing the cognitive complexity of sequence-diagram modeling. The CHOP technique was evaluated in a controlled experiment against a technique recommended in a well-known textbook, which was found to be representative of approaches provided in many textbooks as well as practitioner literatures. The results indicated that novice analysts were able to perform better using the CHOP technique. This outcome seems have been enabled by pattern-based heuristics provided by the technique. Meanwhile, novice analysts rated the CHOP technique more useful although not significantly easier to use than the control technique. The study established that the CHOP technique is an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novice analysts.

Improving Novice Analyst Performance in Modeling the Sequence Diagram in Systems Analysis: A Cognitive Complexity Approach

The Unified Modeling Language (UML) has quickly become the industry standard for object-oriented software development. It is being widely used in organizations and institutions around the world. However, UML is often found to be too complex for novice systems analysts. Although prior research has identified difficulties novice analysts encounter in learning UML, no viable solution has been proposed to address these difficulties. Sequence-diagram modeling, in particular, has largely been overlooked. The sequence diagram models the behavioral aspects of an object-oriented software system in terms of interactions among its building blocks, i.e. objects and classes. It is one of the most commonly-used UML diagrams in practice. However, there has been little research on sequence-diagram modeling. The current literature scarcely provides effective guidelines for developing a sequence diagram. Such guidelines will be greatly beneficial to novice analysts who, unlike experienced systems analysts, do not possess relevant prior experience to easily learn how to develop a sequence diagram. There is the need for an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novices. This dissertation reports a research study that identified novice difficulties in modeling a sequence diagram and proposed a technique called CHOP (CHunking, Ordering, Patterning), which was designed to reduce the cognitive load by addressing the cognitive complexity of sequence-diagram modeling. The CHOP technique was evaluated in a controlled experiment against a technique recommended in a well-known textbook, which was found to be representative of approaches provided in many textbooks as well as practitioner literatures. The results indicated that novice analysts were able to perform better using the CHOP technique. This outcome seems have been enabled by pattern-based heuristics provided by the technique. Meanwhile, novice analysts rated the CHOP technique more useful although not significantly easier to use than the control technique. The study established that the CHOP technique is an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novice analysts.

Modeling prostate cancer: a perspective on transgenic mouse models

Despite considerable success in treatment of early stage localized prostate cancer (PC), acute inadequacy of late stage PC treatment and its inherent heterogeneity poses a formidable challenge. Clearly, an improved understanding of PC genesis and progression along with the development of new targeted therapies are warranted. Animal models, especially, transgenic immunocompetent mouse models, have proven to be the best ally in this respect. A series of models have been developed by modulation of expression of genes implicated in cancer-genesis and progression; mainly, modulation of expression of oncogenes, steroid hormone receptors, growth factors and their receptors, cell cycle and apoptosis regulators, and tumor suppressor genes have been used. Such models have contributed significantly to our understanding of the molecular and pathological aspects of PC initiation and progression. In particular, the transgenic mouse models based on multiple genetic alterations can more accurately address the inherent complexity of PC, not only in revealing the mechanisms of tumorigenesis and progression but also for clinically relevant evaluation of new therapies. Further, with advances in conditional knockout technologies, otherwise embryonically lethal gene changes can be incorporated leading to the development of new generation transgenics, thus adding significantly to our existing knowledge base. Different models and their relevance to PC research are discussed.

Semantic modeling method for configurable enterprise information systems

Business practices vary from one company to another and business practices often need to be changed due to changes of business environments. To satisfy different business practices, enterprise systems need to be customized. To keep up with ongoing business practice changes, enterprise systems need to be adapted. Because of rigidity and complexity, the customization and adaption of enterprise systems often takes excessive time with potential failures and budget shortfall. Moreover, enterprise systems often drag business behind because they cannot be rapidly adapted to support business practice changes. Extensive literature has addressed this issue by identifying success or failure factors, implementation approaches, and project management strategies. Those efforts were aimed at learning lessons from post implementation experiences to help future projects. This research looks into this issue from a different angle. It attempts to address this issue by delivering a systematic method for developing flexible enterprise systems which can be easily tailored for different business practices or rapidly adapted when business practices change. First, this research examines the role of system models in the context of enterprise system development; and the relationship of system models with software programs in the contexts of computer aided software engineering (CASE), model driven architecture (MDA) and workflow management system (WfMS). Then, by applying the analogical reasoning method, this research initiates a concept of model driven enterprise systems. The novelty of model driven enterprise systems is that it extracts system models from software programs and makes system models able to stay independent of software programs. In the paradigm of model driven enterprise systems, system models act as instructors to guide and control the behavior of software programs. Software programs function by interpreting instructions in system models. This mechanism exposes the opportunity to tailor such a system by changing system models. To make this true, system models should be represented in a language which can be easily understood by human beings and can also be effectively interpreted by computers. In this research, various semantic representations are investigated to support model driven enterprise systems. The significance of this research is 1) the transplantation of the successful structure for flexibility in modern machines and WfMS to enterprise systems; and 2) the advancement of MDA by extending the role of system models from guiding system development to controlling system behaviors. This research contributes to the area relevant to enterprise systems from three perspectives: 1) a new paradigm of enterprise systems, in which enterprise systems consist of two essential elements: system models and software programs. These two elements are loosely coupled and can exist independently; 2) semantic representations, which can effectively represent business entities, entity relationships, business logic and information processing logic in a semantic manner. Semantic representations are the key enabling techniques of model driven enterprise systems; and 3) a brand new role of system models; traditionally the role of system models is to guide developers to write system source code. This research promotes the role of system models to control the behaviors of enterprise.

Overcoming the complexity of diagnostic problems due to sensor network architecture

In fault detection and diagnostics, limitations coming from the sensor network architecture are one of the main challenges in evaluating a system’s health status. Usually the design of the sensor network architecture is not solely based on diagnostic purposes, other factors like controls, financial constraints, and practical limitations are also involved. As a result, it quite common to have one sensor (or one set of sensors) monitoring the behaviour of two or more components. This can significantly extend the complexity of diagnostic problems. In this paper a systematic approach is presented to deal with such complexities. It is shown how the problem can be formulated as a Bayesian network based diagnostic mechanism with latent variables. The developed approach is also applied to the problem of fault diagnosis in HVAC systems, an application area with considerable modeling and measurement constraints.

Aspect oriented business process modeling with precedence

Complexity is a major concern which is aimed to be overcome by people through modeling. One way of reducing complexity is separation of concerns, e.g. separation of business process from applications. One sort of concerns are cross-cutting concerns i.e. concerns which are scattered and tangled through one of several models. In business process management, examples of such concerns are security and privacy policies. To deal with these cross-cutting concerns, the aspect orientated approach was introduced in the software development area and recently also in the business process management area. The work presented in this paper elaborates on aspect oriented process modelling. It extends earlier work by defining a mechanism for capturing multiple concerns and specifying a precedence order according to which they should be handled in a process. A formal syntax of the notation is presented precisely capturing the extended concepts and mechanisms. Finally, the relevant of the approach is demonstrated through a case study.

Measuring reef complexity and rugosity from monocular video bathymetric reconstruction

Topographic structural complexity of a reef is highly correlated to coral growth rates, coral cover and overall levels of biodiversity, and is therefore integral in determining ecological processes. Modeling these processes commonly includes measures of rugosity obtained from a wide range of different survey techniques that often fail to capture rugosity at different spatial scales. Here we show that accurate estimates of rugosity can be obtained from video footage captured using underwater video cameras (i.e., monocular video). To demonstrate the accuracy of our method, we compared the results to in situ measurements of a 2m x 20m area of forereef from Glovers Reef atoll in Belize. Sequential pairs of images were used to compute fine scale bathymetric reconstructions of the reef substrate from which precise measurements of rugosity and reef topographic structural complexity can be derived across multiple spatial scales. To achieve accurate bathymetric reconstructions from uncalibrated monocular video, the position of the camera for each image in the video sequence and the intrinsic parameters (e.g., focal length) must be computed simultaneously. We show that these parameters can be often determined when the data exhibits parallax-type motion, and that rugosity and reef complexity can be accurately computed from existing video sequences taken from any type of underwater camera from any reef habitat or location. This technique provides an infinite array of possibilities for future coral reef research by providing a cost-effective and automated method of determining structural complexity and rugosity in both new and historical video surveys of coral reefs.