Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

A simulation modeling approach to understanding information technology value cocreation

The business value of information technology (IT) is increasingly being cocreated by multiple parties, opening opportunities for new research initiatives. Previous studies on IT value cocreation mainly focus on analyzing sources of cocreated IT value, yet inadequately accommodating the influence of competition relationships in IT value cocreation activities. To fill the gap, this in-progress paper suggests an agent-based modeling (also simulation) approach to investigating potential influences of the dynamic interplay between cooperation and competition relationships in IT value cocreation settings. In particular, the research proposes a high-level conceptual framework to position general IT value cocreation processes. A relational network view is offered, aiming at decomposing and systemizing several typical cooperation and competition scenarios in practical IT value cocreation settings. The application of a simulation approach to analytical insights and to theory building is illustrated.

Complexation of siRNA with Dendrimer: A Molecular Modeling Approach

This paper reports the structural behavior and thermodynamics of the complexation of siRNA with poly(amidoamine) (PAMAM) dendrimers of generation 3 (G3) and 4 (G4) through fully atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations accompanied by free energy calculations and inherent structure determination. We have also done simulation with one siRNA and two dendrimers (2 x G3 or 2xG4) to get the microscopic picture of various binding modes. Our simulation results reveal the formation of stable siRNA-dendrimer complex over nanosecond time scale. With the increase in dendrimcr generation, the charge ratio increases and hence the binding energy between siRNA and dendrimer also increases in accordance with available experimental measurements. Calculated radial distribution functions of amines groups of various subgenerations in a given generation of dendrimer and phosphate in backbone of siRNA reveals that one dendrimer of generation 4 shows better binding with siRNA almost wrapping the dendrimer when compared to the binding with lower generation dendrimer like G3. In contrast, two dendrimers of generation 4 show binding without siRNA wrapping the den-rimer because of repulsion between two dendrimers. The counterion distribution around the complex and the water molecules in the hydration shell of siRNA give microscopic picture of the binding dynamics. We see a clear correlation between water. counterions motions and the complexation i.e. the water molecules and counterions which condensed around siRNA are moved away from the siRNA backbone when dendrimer start binding to the siRNA back hone. As siRNA wraps/bind to the dendrimer counterions originally condensed onto siRNA (Na-1) and dendrimer (Cl-) get released. We give a quantitative estimate of the entropy of counterions and show that there is gain in entropy due to counterions release during the complexation. Furthermore, the free energy of complexation of IG3 and IG4 at two different salt concentrations shows that increase in salt concentration leads to the weakening of the binding affinity of siRNA and dendrimer.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Multiscale Modeling Approach to Acoustic Emission during Plastic Deformation

We address the long-standing problem of the origin of acoustic emission commonly observed during plastic deformation. We propose a framework to deal with the widely separated time scales of collective dislocation dynamics and elastic degrees of freedom to explain the nature of acoustic emission observed during the Portevin-Le Chatelier effect. The Ananthakrishna model is used as it explains most generic features of the phenomenon. Our results show that while acoustic emission bursts correlated with stress drops are well separated for the type C serrations, these bursts merge to form nearly continuous acoustic signals with overriding bursts for the propagating type A bands.

Image reconstruction from incomplete projections data: A multiresolution modeling approach

Computerized tomography is an imaging technique which produces cross sectional map of an object from its line integrals. Image reconstruction algorithms require collection of line integrals covering the whole measurement range. However, in many practical situations part of projection data is inaccurately measured or not measured at all. In such incomplete projection data situations, conventional image reconstruction algorithms like the convolution back projection algorithm (CBP) and the Fourier reconstruction algorithm, assuming the projection data to be complete, produce degraded images. In this paper, a multiresolution multiscale modeling using the wavelet transform coefficients of projections is proposed for projection completion. The missing coefficients are then predicted based on these models at each scale followed by inverse wavelet transform to obtain the estimated projection data.

Delineating Ecological Boundaries of Hanuman Langur Species Complex in Peninsular India Using MaxEnt Modeling Approach

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

Delineating Ecological Boundaries of Hanuman Langur Species Complex in Peninsular India Using MaxEnt Modeling Approach

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

A modeling approach to identify optimal habitat and suitable fishing grounds for neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

We developed a habitat suitability index (HSI) model to understand and identify the optimal habitat and potential fishing grounds for neon f lying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Remote sensing data, including sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea surface height, and chlorophyll-a concentrations, as well as fishery data from Chinese mainland squid f leets in the main fishing ground (150–165°E longitude) from August to October, from 1999 to 2004, were used. The HSI model was validated by using fishery data from 2005. The arithmetic mean modeling with three of the environmental variables—sea surface temperature, sea surface height anomaly, and chlorophyll- a concentrations—was defined as the most parsimonious HSI model. In 2005, monthly HSI values >0.6 coincided with productive fishing grounds and high fishing effort from August to October. This result implies that the model can reliably predict potential f ishing grounds for O. bartramii. Because spatially explicit fisheries and environmental data are becoming readily available, it is feasible to develop a dynamic, near real-time habitat model for improving the process of identifying potential fishing areas for and optimal habitats of neon flying squid.

A production modeling approach to the assessment of the horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) population in Delaware Bay

Horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) is harvested commercially, used by the biomedical industry, and provides food for migrating shorebirds, particularly in Delaware Bay. Recently, decreasing crab population trends in this region have raised concerns that the stock may be insufficient to fulfill the needs of these diverse user groups. To assess the Delaware Bay horseshoe crab population, we used surplus production models (programmed in ASPIC), which incorporated data from fishery-independent surveys, fishery-dependent catch-per-unit-of-effort data, and regional harvest. Results showed a depleted population (B2003/=0.03−0.71) BMSY and high relative fishing mortality /FMSY=0.9−9.5). Future harvest (F2002strategies for a 15-year period were evaluated by using population projections with ASPICP software. Under 2003 harvest levels (1356 t), population recovery to BMSY would take at least four years, and four of the seven models predicted that the population would not reach BMSY within the 15year period. Production models for horseshoe crab assessment provided management benchmarks for a species with limited data and no prior stock assessment

A novel modeling approach for design studies of brushless doubly fed induction generator based on magnetic equivalent circuit

Brushless doubly fed induction generator (BDFIG) has substantial benefits, which make it an attractive alternative as a wind turbine generator. However, it suffers from lower efficiency and larger dimensions in comparison to DFIG. Hence, optimizing the BDFIG structure is necessary for enhancing its situation commercially. In previous studies, a simple model has been used in BDFIG design procedure that is insufficiently accurate. Furthermore, magnetic saturation and iron loss are not considered because of difficulties in determination of flux density distributions. The aim of this paper is to establish an accurate yet computationally fast model suitable for BDFIG design studies. The proposed approach combines three equivalent circuits including electric, magnetic and thermal models. Utilizing electric equivalent circuit makes it possible to apply static form of magnetic equivalent circuit, because the elapsed time to reach steady-state results in the dynamic form is too long for using in population-based design studies. The operating characteristics, which are necessary for evaluating the objective function and constraints values of the optimization problem, can be calculated using the presented approach considering iron loss, saturation, and geometrical details. The simulation results of a D-180 prototype BDFIG are compared with measured data in order to validate the developed model. © 1986-2012 IEEE.