Review of the literature on credit risk modeling : development of the past 10 years

This paper traces the developments of credit risk modeling in the past 10 years. Our work can be divided into two parts: selecting articles and summarizing results. On the one hand, by constructing an ordered logit model on historical Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes of articles about credit risk modeling, we sort out articles which are the most related to our topic. The result indicates that the JEL codes have become the standard to classify researches in credit risk modeling. On the other hand, comparing with the classical review Altman and Saunders(1998), we observe some important changes of research methods of credit risk. The main finding is that current focuses on credit risk modeling have moved from static individual-level models to dynamic portfolio models.

Agile modeling data warehouse development

Most of the traditional software and database development approaches tend to be serial, not evolutionary and certainly not agile, especially on data-oriented aspects. Most of the more commonly used methodologies are strict, meaning they’re composed by several stages each with very specific associated tasks. A clear example is the Rational Unified Process (RUP), divided into Business Modeling, Requirements, Analysis & Design, Implementation, Testing and Deployment. But what happens when the needs of a well design and structured plan, meet the reality of a small starting company that aims to build an entire user experience solution. Here resource control and time productivity is vital, requirements are in constant change, and so is the product itself. In order to succeed in this environment a highly collaborative and evolutionary development approach is mandatory. The implications of constant changing requirements imply an iterative development process. Project focus is on Data Warehouse development and business modeling. This area is usually a tricky one. Business knowledge is part of the enterprise, how they work, their goals, what is relevant for analyses are internal business processes. Throughout this document it will be explained why Agile Modeling development was chosen. How an iterative and evolutionary methodology, allowed for reasonable planning and documentation while permitting development flexibility, from idea to product. More importantly how it was applied on the development of a Retail Focused Data Warehouse. A productized Data Warehouse built on the knowledge of not one but several client needs. One that aims not just to store usual business areas but create an innovative sets of business metrics by joining them with store environment analysis, converting Business Intelligence into Actionable Business Intelligence.

Development and survival of the diamondback moth (Lepidoptera : Plutellidae) at constant and alternating temperatures

Survival and development time from egg to adult emergence of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), were determined at 19 constant and 14 alternating temperature regimes from 4 to 40degreesC. Plutella xylostella developed successfully front egg to adult emergence at constant temperatures from 8 to 32degreesC. At temperatures from 4 to 6degreesC or from 34 to 40degreesC, partial or complete development of individual stages or instars was possible, with third and fourth instars having the widest temperature limits. The insect developed successfully from egg to adult emergence under alternating regimes including temperatures as low as 4degreesC or as high as 38degreesC. The degree-day model, the logistic equation, and the Wang model were used to describe the relationships between temperature and development rate at both constant and alternating temperatures. The degree-day model described the relationships well from 10 to 30degreesC. The logistic equation and the Wang model fit the data well at temperatures 32degreesC. Under alternating regimes, all three models gave good simulations of development in the mid-temperature range, but only the logistic equation gave close simulations in the low temperature range, and none gave close or consistent simulations in the high temperature range. The distribution of development time was described satisfactorily by a Weibull function. These rate and time distribution functions provide tools for simulating population development of P. xylostella over a wide range of temperature conditions.

Business modeling in turbulent environments

This study presents an agile tool set for the business modeling in companies, entering the turbulent environment. The study’s aim is to explore business modeling techniques and their tooling by utilizing a case study of a Finnish media monitoring company, expanding to the Russian market. This work proposes a tailored “two-approach” of business modeling development that analyzes both the past and future conditions of two key factors of business modeling for companies – internal and external environments. The study explores a case company by investigating the benefits and disadvantages of firm’s present business modeling tools, developing a new tooling and applying it to the case company. Among primary data utilization, such as interviews with media monitoring industry analysts and representatives of the competing companies, and academic experts, study leans up on the comprehensive analysis of Russian media monitoring niche and its players. This study benefits the business modeling research area and combines traditional analysis tools, such as market, PESTLE and competitor analyses, in a systemic manner, with the business modeling techniques. This transformation proceeds through applying of the integrated scenario, heat map and critical design issues’ analyses in the societal, industrial and competitive context of turbulent environments. The practical outcome of this approach is the development of agile business modeling tool set, customizable by company’s requirements.

Development of vehicle rollover maneuver. Volume I. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Development of vehicle rollover maneuver. Volume II. Executive summary report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Simulation and Analysis of Arterial Traffic Operations Along the U.S. 61 Corridor in Burlington, Iowa, 1998

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) used the traffic simulation model CORSIM to access proposed capacity and safety improvement strategies for the U.S. 61 corridor through Burlington, Iowa. The comparison between the base and alternative models allow for evaluation of the traffic flow performance under the existing conditions as well as other design scenarios. The models also provide visualization of performance for interpretation by technical staff, public policy makers, and the public. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the use of traffic simulation models for future use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and to develop procedures for employing simulation modeling to conduct the analysis of alternative designs. This report presents both the findings of the U.S. 61 evaluation and an overview of model development procedures. The first part of the report includes the simulation modeling development procedures. The simulation analysis is illustrated through the Burlington U.S. 61 corridor case study application. Part I is not intended to be a user manual but simply introductory guidelines for traffic simulation modeling. Part II of the report evaluates the proposed improvement concepts in a side by side comparison of the base and alternative models.

Regulation of self-renewal and detection of karyotypic changes of pluripotent human embryonic stem cells

Human embryonic stem cells are pluripotent cells capable of renewing themselves and differentiating to specialized cell types. Because of their unique regenerative potential, pluripotent cells offer new opportunities for disease modeling, development of regenerative therapies, and treating diseases. Before pluripotent cells can be used in any therapeutic applications, there are numerous challenges to overcome. For instance, the key regulators of pluripotency need to be clarified. In addition, long term culture of pluripotent cells is associated with the accumulation of karyotypic abnormalities, which is a concern regarding the safe use of the cells for therapeutic purposes. The goal of the work presented in this thesis was to identify new factors involved in the maintenance of pluripotency, and to further characterize molecular mechanisms of selected candidate genes. Furthermore, we aimed to set up a new method for analyzing genomic integrity of pluripotent cells. The experimental design applied in this study involved a wide range of molecular biology, genome-wide, and computational techniques to study the pluripotency of stem cells and the functions of the target genes. In collaboration with instrument and reagent company Perkin Elmer, KaryoliteTM BoBsTM was implemented for detecting karyotypic changes of pluripotent cells. Novel genes were identified that are highly and specifically expressed in hES cells. Of these genes, L1TD1 and POLR3G were chosen for further investigation. The results revealed that both of these factors are vital for the maintenance of pluripotency and self-renewal of the hESCs. KaryoliteTM BoBsTM was validated as a novel method to detect karyotypic abnormalities in pluripotent stem cells. The results presented in this thesis offer significant new information on the regulatory networks associated with pluripotency. The results will facilitate in understanding developmental and cancer biology, as well as creating stem cell based applications. KaryoliteTM BoBsTM provides rapid, high-throughput, and cost-efficient tool for screening of human pluripotent cell cultures.

A conceptual model of personalized virtual learning environments

The Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) is one of the fastest growing areas in educational technology research and development. In order to achieve learning effectiveness, ideal VLEs should be able to identify learning needs and customize solutions, with or without an instructor to supplement instruction. They are called Personalized VLEs (PVLEs). In order to achieve PVLEs success, comprehensive conceptual models corresponding to PVLEs are essential. Such conceptual modeling development is important because it facilitates early detection and correction of system development errors. Therefore, in order to capture the PVLEs knowledge explicitly, this paper focuses on the development of conceptual models for PVLEs, including models of knowledge primitives in terms of learner, curriculum, and situational models, models of VLEs in general pedagogical bases, and particularly, the definition of the ontology of PVLEs on the constructivist pedagogical principle. Based on those comprehensive conceptual models, a prototyped multiagent-based PVLE has been implemented. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the learning achievements by comparing personalized and non-personalized systems. The result indicates that the PVLE we developed under our comprehensive ontology successfully provides significant learning achievements. These comprehensive models also provide a solid knowledge representation framework for PVLEs development practice, guiding the analysis, design, and development of PVLEs. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short- and long-term consequences of thermal variation in the larval environment of anurans

To survive adverse or unpredictable conditions in the ontogenetic environment, many organisms retain a level of phenotypic plasticity that allows them to meet the challenges of rapidly changing conditions. Larval anurans are widely known for their ability to modify behaviour, morphology and physiological processes during development, making them an ideal model system for studies of environmental effects on phenotypic traits. Although temperature is one of the most important factors influencing the growth, development and metamorphic condition of larval anurans, many studies have failed to include ecologically relevant thermal fluctuations among their treatments. We compared the growth and age at metamorphosis of striped marsh frogs Limnodynastes peronii raised in a diurnally fluctuating thermal regime and a stable regime of the same mean temperature. We then assessed the long-term effects of the larval environment on the morphology and performance of post-metamorphic frogs. Larval L. peronii from the fluctuating treatment were significantly longer throughout development and metamorphosed about 5 days earlier. Frogs from the fluctuating group metamorphosed at a smaller mass and in poorer condition compared with the stable group, and had proportionally shorter legs. Frogs from the fluctuating group showed greater jumping performance at metamorphosis and less degradation in performance during a 10-week dormancy. Treatment differences in performance could not be explained by whole-animal morphological variation, suggesting improved contractile properties of the muscles in the fluctuating group.

Formal methods @ runtime

Heuristics, simulation, artificial intelligence techniques and combinations thereof have all been employed in the attempt to make computer systems adaptive, context-aware, reconfigurable and self-managing. This paper complements such efforts by exploring the possibility to achieve runtime adaptiveness using mathematically-based techniques from the area of formal methods. It is argued that formal methods @ runtime represents a feasible approach, and promising preliminary results are summarised to support this viewpoint. The survey of existing approaches to employing formal methods at runtime is accompanied by a discussion of their challenges and of the future research required to overcome them. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Finite Element Modeling for Development and Optimization of a Bone Plate for Mandibular Fracture in Dogs

This study aimed to develop a plate to treat fractures of the mandibular body in dogs and to validate the project using finite elements and biomechanical essays. Mandible prototypes were produced with 10 oblique ventrorostral fractures (favorable) and 10 oblique ventrocaudal fractures (unfavorable). Three groups were established for each fracture type. Osteosynthesis with a pure titanium plate of double-arch geometry and blocked monocortical screws offree angulanon were used. The mechanical resistance of the prototype with unfavorable fracture was lower than that of the fcworable fracture. In both fractures, the deflection increased and the relative stiffness decreased proportionally to the diminishing screw number The finite element analysis validated this plate study, since the maximum tension concentration observed on the plate was lower than the resistance limit tension admitted by the titanium. In conclusion, the double-arch geometry plate fixed with blocked monocortical screws has sufficient resistance to stabilize oblique,fractures, without compromising mandibular dental or neurovascular structures. J Vet Dent 24 (7); 212 - 221, 2010

Factores Críticos del Desarrollo Local y Regional Integrado zona serrana y Norte de la Provincia de Córdoba-. Validación causal estadística de Modelos de Ecuaciones Estructurales. Identificación de problemas normativos de las OSC.Critical Factors of Local and Regional Development in north of the Province of Córdoba. Causal validation with Structural Equation Modeling. Legal regulations of civil society.

En la investigación anterior -en la zona pampeana de la Provincia de Córdoba- se demostró teórica y empíricamente, que el desarrollo de la Sociedad Civil muchas veces libradas a su suerte y con limitaciones legales apoyan decididamente el desarrollo local, sin embargo han logrado solo parcialmente sus objetivos, por lo que es necesario comenzar un camino de fortalecimiento en los nuevos roles que deben asumir. Los gobiernos locales, a la vez, intentan trabajosamente con contados éxitos detener el procesos de descapitalización social -financiera y humana- de sus comunidades locales y regionales, peregrinando con escaso éxito a los centros concentrados del poder político y económico, para procurar los recursos financieros y humanos necesarios que no alcanzan a reponer los que se fugan desde hace décadas de sus localidades. Las empresas, con ciclos recurrentes de crecimiento y decrecimiento vinculados a los mercados en que colocan sus productos, también se debaten en la búsqueda de los escasos recursos, financieros y humanos, que les permitan consolidar un desarrollo a mediano y largo plazo. El desarrollo alcanzado en Sistemas de información, instrumentos de relevamiento, análisis y elaboración de propuestas para el Desarrollo Local, nos permite avanzar en: 1. La confirmación empírica de las hipótesis iniciales - factores exógenos y endógenos - en la zona Norte y Serrana de la provincia 2. La validación científica -mediante el Análisis de ecuaciones estructurales. de tales supuestos, para el conjunto de las poblaciones analizadas en ambas etapas. 3. La identificación de los problemas normativos que afectan el desarrollo de las Organizaciones de la Sociedad Civil (OSC). METODOLOGÍA Respecto la validación empírica en la zona norte y serrana 1. Selección de las 4 localidades a relevar de acuerdo a las categorías definidas 2. Elaboración de acuerdos con autoridades e instituciones locales. 3. Relevamiento cualitativo con líderes locales y fuentes de datos secundarias. 4. Adaptación de instrumentos de relevamiento a las realidades locales y estudios previos 5. Relevamiento cuantitativo de campo, capacitación de encuestadores y supervisores. 6. Procesamiento y elaboración de informes finales locales. Respecto de la construcción de modelos de desarrollo 1. Desarrollar las dimensiones especificas y las variables (items) de cada factor crítico. 2. Revisar el instrumento con expertos de cada una de las dimensiones. 3. Validar a nivel exploratorio por medio de un Análisis de Componentes Principales 4. Someter a los expertos la evaluación de una serie de localidades que representan cada uno. Respecto de la identificación de las normas legales que afectan a la Sociedad Civil 1.Relevamiento documental de normas 2. Relevamiento con líderes de instituciones de la Sociedad Civil 3. Análisis de las normas vigentes 4. Elaboración de Informes Finales y Transferencia a líderes e instituciones

Development of methodology for treating pressure waves from explosions accounting for modeling and data uncertainties

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2012