A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005.

Evidence for oxygen-island formation on Al(111): Cluster-model theory and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

The O 1s x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy spectrum for Al(111)/O at 300 K shows two components whose behavior as a function of time and variation of detection angle are consistent with either (a) a surface species represented by the higher binding-energy (BE) component and a subsurface species represented by the lower BE component, or (b) small close-packed oxygen islands with the interior atoms represented by the lower BE component and the perimeter atoms by the higher BE component. We have modeled both situations using ab initio Hartree-Fock wave functions for clusters of Al and O atoms. For an O atom in a threefold site, it was found that a below-surface position gave a higher O 1s BE than an above-surface position, incompatible with interpretation (a). This change in the O 1s BE could arise because the bond for O to Al may have a more covalent character when the O is below the surface than when it is above the surface. We present evidence consistent with this view. An O adatom island with all the O atoms in threefold sites gives calculated O 1s BE's which are significantly higher for the perimeter O atoms. Further, the results for an isolated O island without the Al substrate present also give higher BE¿s for the perimeter atoms. Both these results are consistent with interpretation (b). Published scanning-tunneling-microscopy data supports the suggestion that the chemisorbed state consists of small, close-packed islands, whereas the presence of two vibrational modes in high-resolution electron-energy-loss spectroscopy data has been interpreted as representing surface and subsurface oxygen atoms. In light of the present results, we suggest that a vibrational interpretation in terms of interior and perimeter adatoms should be considered.

Graphoids and separoids in model theory

We treat graphoid and separoid structures within the mathematical framework of model theory, specially suited for representing and analysing axiomatic systems with multiple semantics. We represent the graphoid axiom set in model theory, and translate algebraic separoid structures to another axiom set over the same symbols as graphoids. This brings both structures to a common, sound theoretical ground where they can be fairly compared. Our contribution further serves as a bridge between the most recent developments in formal logic research, and the well-known graphoid applications in probabilistic graphical modelling.

Mechanisms influencing levitation and the scaling laws in nanopores: Oscillator model theory

We provide here a detailed theoretical explanation of the floating molecule or levitation effect, for molecules diffusing through nanopores, using the oscillator model theory (Phys. Rev. Lett. 2003, 91, 126102) recently developed in this laboratory. It is shown that on reduction of pore size the effect occurs due to decrease in frequency of wall collision of diffusing particles at a critical pore size. This effect is, however, absent at high temperatures where the ratio of kinetic energy to the solid-fluid interaction strength is sufficiently large. It is shown that the transport diffusivities scale with this ratio. Scaling of transport diffusivities with respect to mass is also observed, even in the presence of interactions.

A new model construction by making a detour via intuitionistic theories I: Operational set theory without choice is Π1-equivalent to KP

We introduce a version of operational set theory, OST−, without a choice operation, which has a machinery for Δ0Δ0 separation based on truth functions and the separation operator, and a new kind of applicative set theory, so-called weak explicit set theory WEST, based on Gödel operations. We show that both the theories and Kripke–Platek set theory KPKP with infinity are pairwise Π1Π1 equivalent. We also show analogous assertions for subtheories with ∈-induction restricted in various ways and for supertheories extended by powerset, beta, limit and Mahlo operations. Whereas the upper bound is given by a refinement of inductive definition in KPKP, the lower bound is by a combination, in a specific way, of realisability, (intuitionistic) forcing and negative interpretations. Thus, despite interpretability between classical theories, we make “a detour via intuitionistic theories”. The combined interpretation, seen as a model construction in the sense of Visser's miniature model theory, is a new way of construction for classical theories and could be said the third kind of model construction ever used which is non-trivial on the logical connective level, after generic extension à la Cohen and Krivine's classical realisability model.

A Write-Based Solver for SAT Modulo the Theory of Arrays

The extensional theory of arrays is one of the most important ones for applications of SAT Modulo Theories (SMT) to hardware and software verification. Here we present a new T-solver for arrays in the context of the DPLL(T) approach to SMT. The main characteristics of our solver are: (i) no translation of writes into reads is needed, (ii) there is no axiom instantiation, and (iii) the T-solver interacts with the Boolean engine by asking to split on equality literals between indices. As far as we know, this is the first accurate description of an array solver integrated in a state-of-the-art SMT solver and, unlike most state-of-the-art solvers, it is not based on a lazy instantiation of the array axioms. Moreover, it is very competitive in practice, specially on problems that require heavy reasoning on array literals

Remarks on abstract Galois theory

This paper is a historical companion to a previous one, in which it was studied the so-called abstract Galois theory as formulated by the Portuguese mathematician José Sebastião e Silva (see da Costa, Rodrigues (2007)). Our purpose is to present some applications of abstract Galois theory to higher-order model theory, to discuss Silva's notion of expressibility and to outline a classical Galois theory that can be obtained inside the two versions of the abstract theory, those of Mark Krasner and of Silva. Some comments are made on the universal theory of (set-theoretic) structures.

Microbusiness: A new social business model to alleviate poverty in developing countries?

Poverty alleviation views have shifted from seeing the poor as victims or as potential consumers, to seeing them as gainers. Social businesses include microfinancing and microfranchising, which engage people at the bottom of the pyramid using business instead of charity. There are, however, social business firms that do not fit to the existing social business model theory. These firms provide markets to poor producers and mix traditional, local craftsmanship with western design. Social business models evolve faster than the academic literature can study them. This study contributes to filling this gap. The purpose of this Master’s thesis is to develop the concept of social business as poverty alleviation method in developing countries. It also aims; 1) to describe the means for poverty alleviation in developing countries; 2) to introduce microbusiness as a social business model; and 3) to examine the challenges of microbusinesses. Qualitative case study is used as a research strategy and theme interviews as a data collecting method. The empirical data is gathered from four interviews of Finnish or Finnish-owned firms that employ microbusiness – Mifuko, Tensira, Mangomaa and Tikau – and this is supported with secondary data including articles on case companies. The results show that microbusiness is a valid new social business model that aims at poverty alleviation by engaging the poor at the bottom of the pyramid. It is possible to map the value proposition, value constellation, and economic and social profit equations of the case firms. Two major types of firms emerge from the results; the first consists of design-oriented firms that emphasize the quality and design of the products, and the second consists of bazaar-like firms whose product portfolio is less sophisticated and who promote more the stories of the products – not the design. All microbusiness firms provide markets, promote traditional handicrafts, form close relationships to their producers, and aim at enhancing lives through their businesses. The attitudes towards social businesses are sometimes negative, but this is changing for the better. In conclusion, microbusiness answers to two different needs at the same time – consumers’ needs for ethical products and the social needs of the producers – but the social need is the ultimate reason why the entrepreneurs started business. Microbusiness continues as a poverty alleviation tool that sees the poor as gainers; by providing them steady employment, microbusiness increases the poor’s self-esteem and enables them for a better living. Academic literature has not been able to offer enough alternative business models to cover all social businesses; the current study contributes to this by concluding that microbusiness is another social business model.

Deeper model endgame analysis

A reference model of Fallible Endgame Play has been implemented and exercised with the chess-engine WILHELM. Past experiments have demonstrated the value of the model and the robustness of decisions based on it: experiments agree well with a Markov Model theory. Here, the reference model is exercised on the well-known endgame KBBKN.

Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

New physics from warped compact extra dimensions: from model building to colliders signals

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A model of factors determining levels of public support for health care policy in the United States

Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^

A useful method for model-building /

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Simulation methods and model design

Most of the pages of the photocopy, which are in double columns, represent two pages of the original.