Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed.

A unified solution to the small scale problems of the Lambda CDM model II: introducing parent-satellite interaction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Human exposure model-II : user's guide.

Mode of access: Internet.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Differential expression of presynaptic genes in a rat model of postnatal hypoxia: relevance to schizophrenia

Obstetric complications play a role in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. However, the biological consequences during neurodevelopment until adulthood are unknown. Microarrays have been used for expression profiling in four brain regions of a rat model of neonatal hypoxia as a common factor of obstetric complications. Animals were repeatedly exposed to chronic hypoxia from postnatal (PD) day 4 through day 8 and killed at the age of 150 days. Additional groups of rats were treated with clozapine from PD 120-150. Self-spotted chips containing 340 cDNAs related to the glutamate system (""glutamate chips"") were used. The data show differential (up and down) regulations of numerous genes in frontal (FR), temporal (TE) and parietal cortex (PAR), and in caudate putamen (CPU), but evidently many more genes are upregulated in frontal and temporal cortex, whereas in parietal cortex the majority of genes are downregulated. Because of their primary presynaptic occurrence, five differentially expressed genes (CPX1, NPY, NRXN1, SNAP-25, and STX1A) have been selected for comparisons with clozapine-treated animals by qRT-PCR. Complexin 1 is upregulated in FR and TE cortex but unchanged in PAR by hypoxic treatment. Clozapine downregulates it in FR but upregulates it in PAR cortex. Similarly, syntaxin 1A was upregulated in FR, but downregulated in TE and unchanged in PAR cortex, whereas clozapine downregulated it in FR but upregulated it in PAR cortex. Hence, hypoxia alters gene expression regionally specific, which is in agreement with reports on differentially expressed presynaptic genes in schizophrenia. Chronic clozapine treatment may contribute to normalize synaptic connectivity.

Two-Higgs-doublet model in light of the standard model H -> tau(+)tau(-) search at the LHC

We study the implications of the searches based on H -> tau(+)tau-by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations on the parameter space of the two-Higgs-doublet model (2HDM). In the 2HDM, the scalars can decay into a tau pair with a branching ratio larger than the SM one, leading to constraints on the 2HDM parameter space. We show that in model II, values of tan beta > 1.8 are definitively excluded if the pseudoscalar is in the mass range 110 GeV < m(A) < 145 GeV. We have also discussed the implications for the 2HDM of the recent dimuon search by the ATLAS collaboration for a CP-odd scalar in the mass range 4-12 GeV.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

Uses of natural zeolite in the removal of Pb2+ from contaminated water

In this paper, we carry out a study on the process of sorption of lead in polluted waters usingnatural zeolites, with the objective of analyzing their behavior in the purification of water.Experiments are carried out under static and dynamic conditions to determine the influence of other metal ions, such as: Ca (II), Mg (II), K (I) and Na (I), on this process. We demonstrate that the affinity of Pb (II) with regard to zeolite is higher than that of the ions mentioned above. It allows us to use this material in the capture of lead in residual waters. A lineal model of regression was obtained using a computer program called Eureka which relates the capacity of interchange of zeolite with respect to the concentration of the metal ions present in waters. We also studied the selectivity of zeolite in the process of sorption of Pb (II) compared with other heavy metals like Zn (II) and Cd (II).The results achieved in both cases increase the expectancy about the usage of zeolite as a low cost material for purifing waters.

The use of artificial neural networks in analysing the nutritional ecology of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), compared with a statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fronteiras (in)visíveis da cidade capitalista: segregação socioespacial no Conjunto Parque Modelo II/Ananindeua-PA

O presente estudo tem como objeto a análise da produção do espaço no interior da cidade capitalista, ratificado historicamente por meio da lógica de desigualdade social que perversamente estabelece a disparidade existente na distribuição de serviços públicos e habitações, através do acesso desigual à moradia, infraestrutura e serviços coletivos, estabelecendo um quadro tenso e contraditório de segregação socioespacial vivenciado por uma grande massa de trabalhadores. Tendo como objetivo apreender o processo de reprodução social dos trabalhadores residentes no Conjunto Parque Modelo II, bairro Curuçambá, no município de Ananindeua a partir das condições de acesso à moradia, infraestrutura e serviços coletivos que definem o processo de segregação socioespacial naquela área. Neste sentido, para que se alcançasse o objetivo proposto pelo trabalho, inicialmente foi desenvolvida pesquisa bibliográfica que subsidiasse a reconstrução sócio - histórica do espaço urbano no município de Ananindeua e no bairro Curuçambá, e posteriormente foi realizada pesquisa de campo estruturada por meio de formulários aplicados junto a uma amostra de 64 (sessenta e quatro) famílias residentes no Conjunto, buscando-se o levantamento de dados que possibilitasse a posterior interpretação das informações obtidas. Com base nos dados, informações e nas análises realizadas, constatou-se que o Conjunto Parque Modelo II em sua gênese e desenvolvimento acompanha a expansão do núcleo urbano central de Ananindeua, sendo constituído em sua maioria por uma população migrante que busca moradia na área visando melhores condições de vida e sobrevivência, por não possuir condições materiais (renda e trabalho) para se instalar ou se manter no centro ou em áreas próximas, e por isso se reproduzem a partir da convivência cotidiana com a violência, ausência de infraestrutura, serviços e equipamentos urbanos precários e da consequente não satisfação de necessidades básicas que revelam a essência do quadro socioeconômico de segregação socioespacial.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efeito dos hábitos comportamentais e gordura corporal sobre indicadores de risco cardiovasculares entre adolescentes: estudo de coorte de 12 meses

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)