Dissecting the compression of mortality in Switzerland, 1876-2005

This paper aims to examine changes in common longevity and variability of the adult life span, and attempts to answer whether or not the compression of mortality continues in Switzerland in the years 1876-2005. The results show that the negative relationships between the large increase in the adult modal age at death, observed at least from the 1920s, and the decrease in the standard deviation of the ages at deaths occurring above it, illustrate a significant compression of adult mortality. Typical adult longevity increased by about 10% during the last fifty years in Switzerland, and adult heterogeneity in the age at death decreased in the same proportion. This analysis has not found any evidence suggesting that we are approaching longevity limits in term of modal or even maximum life spans. It ascertains a slowdown in the reduction of adult heterogeneity in longevity, already observed in Japan and other low mortality countries.

Changements dans la répartition des décès selon l'âge : une approche non paramétrique pour l'étude de la mortalité adulte

Au cours du siècle dernier, nous avons pu observer une diminution remarquable de la mortalité dans toutes les régions du monde, en particulier dans les pays développés. Cette chute a été caractérisée par des modifications importantes quant à la répartition des décès selon l'âge, ces derniers ne se produisant plus principalement durant les premiers âges de la vie mais plutôt au-delà de l'âge de 65 ans. Notre étude s'intéresse spécifiquement au suivi fin et détaillé des changements survenus dans la distribution des âges au décès chez les personnes âgées. Pour ce faire, nous proposons une nouvelle méthode de lissage non paramétrique souple qui repose sur l'utilisation des P-splines et qui mène à une expression précise de la mortalité, telle que décrite par les données observées. Les résultats de nos analyses sont présentés sous forme d'articles scientifiques, qui s'appuient sur les données de la Human Mortality Database, la Base de données sur la longévité canadienne et le Registre de la population du Québec ancien reconnues pour leur fiabilité. Les conclusions du premier article suggèrent que certains pays à faible mortalité auraient récemment franchi l'ère de la compression de la mortalité aux grands âges, ère durant laquelle les décès au sein des personnes âgées tendent à se concentrer dans un intervalle d'âge progressivement plus court. En effet, depuis le début des années 1990 au Japon, l'âge modal au décès continue d'augmenter alors que le niveau d'hétérogénéité des durées de vie au-delà de cet âge demeure inchangé. Nous assistons ainsi à un déplacement de l'ensemble des durées de vie adultes vers des âges plus élevés, sans réduction parallèle de la dispersion de la mortalité aux grands âges. En France et au Canada, les femmes affichent aussi de tels développements depuis le début des années 2000, mais le scénario de compression de la mortalité aux grands âges est toujours en cours chez les hommes. Aux États-Unis, les résultats de la dernière décennie s'avèrent inquiétants car pour plusieurs années consécutives, l'âge modal au décès, soit la durée de vie la plus commune des adultes, a diminué de manière importante chez les deux sexes. Le second article s'inscrit dans une perspective géographique plus fine et révèle que les disparités provinciales en matière de mortalité adulte au Canada entre 1930 et 2007, bien décrites à l'aide de surfaces de mortalité lissées, sont importantes et méritent d'être suivies de près. Plus spécifiquement, sur la base des trajectoires temporelles de l'âge modal au décès et de l'écart type des âges au décès situés au-delà du mode, les différentiels de mortalité aux grands âges entre provinces ont à peine diminué durant cette période, et cela, malgré la baisse notable de la mortalité dans toutes les provinces depuis le début du XXe siècle. Également, nous constatons que ce sont précisément les femmes issues de provinces de l'Ouest et du centre du pays qui semblent avoir franchi l'ère de la compression de la mortalité aux grands âges au Canada. Dans le cadre du troisième et dernier article de cette thèse, nous étudions la longévité des adultes au XVIIIe siècle et apportons un nouvel éclairage sur la durée de vie la plus commune des adultes à cette époque. À la lumière de nos résultats, l'âge le plus commun au décès parmi les adultes canadiens-français a augmenté entre 1740-1754 et 1785-1799 au Québec ancien. En effet, l'âge modal au décès est passé d'environ 73 ans à près de 76 ans chez les femmes et d'environ 70 ans à 74 ans chez les hommes. Les conditions de vie particulières de la population canadienne-française à cette époque pourraient expliquer cet accroissement.

Les inégalités sociales dans la durée de vie la plus commune : la répartition des décès selon l'âge et le quintile de défavorisation au Québec en 2000-2002 et 2005-2007

Nous avons choisi de focaliser nos analyses sur les inégalités sociales de mortalité spécifiquement aux grands âges. Pour ce faire, l'utilisation de l'âge modal au décès combiné à la dispersion des décès au-delà de cet âge s'avère particulièrement adapté pour capter ces disparités puisque ces mesures ne sont pas tributaires de la mortalité prématurée. Ainsi, à partir de la distribution des âges au décès selon le niveau de défavorisation, au Québec au cours des périodes 2000-2002 et 2005-2007, nous avons déterminé l'âge le plus commun au décès et la dispersion des durées de vie au-delà de celui-ci. L'estimation de la distribution des décès selon l'âge et le niveau de défavorisation repose sur une approche non paramétrique de lissage par P-splines développée par Nadine Ouellette dans le cadre de sa thèse de doctorat. Nos résultats montrent que l'âge modal au décès ne permet pas de détecter des disparités dans la mortalité des femmes selon le niveau de défavorisation au Québec en 2000-2002 et en 2005-2007. Néanmoins, on assiste à un report de la mortalité vers des âges plus avancés alors que la compression de la mortalité semble s'être stabilisée. Pour les hommes, les inégalités sociales de mortalité sont particulièrement importantes entre le sous-groupe le plus favorisé et celui l'étant le moins. On constate un déplacement de la durée de vie la plus commune des hommes vers des âges plus élevés et ce, peu importe le niveau de défavorisation. Cependant, contrairement à leurs homologues féminins, le phénomène de compression de la mortalité semble toujours s'opérer.

Gender and age-at-first-admission for schizophrenia: Data from Australia and Brazil

In order to examine whether different populations show the same pattern of onset in the Southern Hemisphere, we examined the age-at-first-admission distribution for schizophrenia based on mental health registers from Australia and Brazil. Data on age-at-first-admission for individuals with schizophrenia were extracted from two names-linked registers, (1) the Queensland Mental Health Statistics System, Australia (N=7651, F= 3293, M=4358), and (2) a psychiatric hospital register in Pelotas, Brazil (N=4428, F=2220, M=2208). Age distributions were derived for males and females for both datasets. The general population structure tbr both countries was also obtained. There were significantly more males in the Queensland dataset (gz = 56.9, df3, p < 0.0001 ). Both dataset distributions were skewed to the right. Onset rose steeply after puberty to reach a modal age group of 20-29 for men and women, with a more gradual tail toward the older age groups. In Queensland 68% of women with schizophrenia had their first admissions after age 30, while the proportion from Brazil was 58%. Compared to the Australian dataset, the Brazilian dataset had a slightly greater proportion of first admissions under the age 30 and a slightly smaller proportion over the age of 60 years. This reflects the underlying age distributions of the two populations. This study confirms the wide age range and gender differences in age-at-first-admission distributions for schizophrenia and identified a significant difference in the gender ratio between the two datasets. Given widely differing health services, cultural practices, ethic variability, and the different underlying population distributions, the age-at-first-admission in Queensland and Brazil showed more similarities than differences. Acknowledgments: The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Age-at-first-admission of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression: Implications of heterogeneity

Age of onset is an important variable when considering the cause and course of mental illnesses. Given the debate about the relationship between psychotic disorders it would be useful to compare age-at-first-admission for ICD schizophrenia and for affective psychoses when the latter is differentiated into 'major depression' and 'bipolar disorder'. Data on age-at-first-admission for Australian-born individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia (ICD 295) or affective psychosis (ICD 296) were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health Statistics System -- a comprehensive, namelinked mental health register. Because the ICD 9 category 296.1 was used to code what is now called "major depressive episode', this group was differentiated from other 296 categorieswhich were considered bipolar disorders. Those receiving more than one diagnoses within these categories were excluded. All distributions show a wide age range of onset from early adolescence into the seventies and eighties. However the modal age-group for major depression ('60-69' for both sexes) is clearly different from bipolar disorder ('20-29' for males; '30- 39' for females), the latter distribution being more similar to the SCZ distribution (which had a model age-group of '20-29' for both sexes). While these distributions were similar for males and females, there were sex differences in the proportions within each diagnostic group: more males with schizophrenia, and more females with bipolar disorder and with major depression. Our results suggest heterogeneity within the affective psychoses as categorised by ICD 9, with bipolar disorder having an age-at-first-admission distribution more similar to schizophrenia than major depression. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Age-at-first-registration for affective psychosis and schizophrenia

We compared the age-at-first-registration for patients with schizophrenia and affective psychosis in a statewide mental health register. After excluding those receiving (1) a diagnosis of both schizophrenia (ICD-9 295.x) and affective psychosis (ICD-9 296.x), or (2) a diagnosis of ICD-9 296.1 (which can cover major depressive episode), we adjusted the distributions for the age structure of the background general population. We found that all distributions showed a wide age range of onset, with a similar male modal age group of 20-24 for schizophrenia and 25-29 for affective psychosis. The female modal age group was 50-54 for both diagnoses. Although more individuals were diagnosed with schizophrenia (males = 2,434, females = 1,609) than with affective psychosis (males = 670, females = 913), the shape of the two distributions was similar. This finding suggests that factors influencing age-at-first-registration for schizophrenia and affective psychosis may be similar, especially for females.

Causes of death and cardiovascular complications in adolescents and adults with congenitally malformed hearts: an autopsy study of 102 cases

Objectives: To identify the causes of death and main cardiovascular complications in adolescents and adults with congenitally malformed hearts. Design: Retrospective review of 102 necropsy reports from a tertiary centre obtained over a period of 19 years. Methods: The diagnosis, the operated or non-operated state of the main defect, the cause of death, and main complications were related to the age and gender. Other clinically relevant conditions, and identifiable sequels of previous diseases, were also noted. Results: The ages ranged from 15 to 69 years, with a mean of 31.1 and a median of 28 years, with no difference detected according to the gender. Of the patients, two-thirds had been submitted to at least one cardiac surgery. The mean age of death was significantly higher in non-operated patients (p = 0.003). The most prevalent cause of death in the whole group was related to recent surgery, found in one-third. From them, two-fifths corresponded to reoperations. Among the others, cardiac failure was the main terminal cause in another third, and the second cause was pulmonary thromboembolism in just over one-fifth, presenting a significant association with histopathological signs of pulmonary hypertension (p = 0.011). Infection was the cause of death in 7.8% of the patients, all previously operated. Acute infective endocarditis was present or was the indication for the recent surgery in one-tenth of the patients, this cohort having a mean age of 27.8 years. There was a statistically significant association between the occurrence of endocarditis and defects causing low pulmonary blood flow (p = 0.043). Conclusions: Data derived from necropsies of adults with congenital heart defects can help the multidisciplinary team refine both their diagnosis and treatment.

Age transition of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Before the Aids pandemic, demographic transition and control programs prompted a shift in the age of incidence of tuberculosis from adults to older people in many countries. The objective of the study is to evaluate this transition in Brazil. METHODS: Tuberculosis incidence and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and population data from the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific incidence and mortality rates and medians. RESULTS: Among reported cases, the proportion of older people increased from 10.5% to 12% and the median age from 38 to 41 years between the period of 1986 and 1996. The smallest decrease in the incidence rate occurred in the 30--49 and 60+ age groups. The median age of death increased from 53 to 55 years between 1980 and 1996. The general decline in mortality rates from 1986 to 1991 became less evident in the 30+ age group during the period of 1991 to 1996. A direct correlation between age and mortality rates was observed. The largest proportion of bacteriologically unconfirmed cases occurred in older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of tuberculosis has begun to shift to the older population. This shift results from the decline in the annual risk of infection as well as the demographic transition. An increase in reactivation tuberculosis in older people is expected, since this population will grow from 5% to 14% of the Brazilian population over the next 50 years. A progressive reduction in HIV-related cases in adults will most likely occur. The difficulty in diagnosing tuberculosis in old age leads to increased mortality.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Risk factors for sudden infant death syndrome in a developing country

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether previously identified risk factors for sudden death syndrome have a significant impact in a developing country. METHODS: Retrospective longitudinal case-control study carried out in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil. Cases (N=39) were infants born between 1996 and 2000 who died suddenly and unexpectedly at home during sleep and were diagnosed with sudden death syndrome. Controls (N=117) were infants matched by age and sex who died in hospitals due to other conditions. Data were collected from postmortem examination records and questionnaires answers. A conditional logistic model was used to identify factors associated with the outcome. RESULTS: Mean age at death of cases was 3.2 months. The frequencies of infants regarding gestational age, breastfeeding and regular medical visits were similar in both groups. Sleeping position for most cases and controls was the lateral one. Supine sleeping position was found for few infants in both groups. Maternal variables, age below 20 years (OR=2, 95% CI: 1.1; 5.1) and smoking of more than 10 cigarettes per day during pregnancy (OR=3, 95% CI: 1.3; 6.4), significantly increased the risk for the syndrome. Socioeconomic characteristics were similar in both groups and did not affect risk. CONCLUSIONS: Infant-maternal and socioeconomic profiles of cases in a developing country closely resembled the profile described in the literature, and risk factors were similar as well. However, individual characteristics were identified as risks in the population studied, such as smoking during pregnancy and maternal age below 20 years.

Estimation of sex and age of "virtual skeletons"--a feasibility study.

This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskéri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum.

A human MYBPC3 mutation appearing about 10 centuries ago results in a hypertrophic cardiomyopathy with delayed onset, moderate evolution but with a risk of sudden death.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetically heterogeneous disease. One specific mutation in the MYBPC3 gene is highly prevalent in center east of France giving an opportunity to define the clinical profile of this specific mutation. METHODS: HCM probands were screened for mutation in the MYH7, MYBPC3, TNNT2 and TNNI3 genes. Carriers of the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation were genotyped with 8 microsatellites flanking this gene. The age of this MYBPC3 mutation was inferred with the software ESTIAGE. The age at first symptom, diagnosis, first complication, first severe complication and the rate of sudden death were compared between carriers of the IVS20-2 mutation (group A) and carriers of all other mutations (group B) using time to event curves and log rank test. RESULTS: Out of 107 HCM probands, 45 had a single heterozygous mutation in one of the 4 tested sarcomeric genes including 9 patients with the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation. The IVS20-2 mutation in these 9 patients and their 25 mutation carrier relatives was embedded in a common haplotype defined after genotyping 4 polymorphic markers on each side of the MYBPC3 gene. This result supports the hypothesis of a common ancestor. Furthermore, we evaluated that the mutation occurred about 47 generations ago, approximately at the 10th century.We then compared the clinical profile of the IVS20-2 mutation carriers (group A) and the carriers of all other mutations (group B). Age at onset of symptoms was similar in the 34 group A cases and the 73 group B cases but group A cases were diagnosed on average 15 years later (log rank test p = 0.022). Age of first complication and first severe complication was delayed in group A vs group B cases but the prevalence of sudden death and age at death was similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: A founder mutation arising at about the 10th century in the MYBPC3 gene accounts for 8.4% of all HCM in center east France and results in a cardiomyopathy starting late and evolving slowly but with an apparent risk of sudden death similar to other sarcomeric mutations.

An age-period-cohort analysis of gastric cancer mortality from 1950 to 2007 in Europe.

PURPOSE: To analyze the components of the favorable trends in gastric cancer in Europe. METHODS: From official certified deaths from gastric cancer and population estimates for 42 countries of the European geographical region, during the period 1950 to 2007, age-standardized death rates (World Standard Population) were computed, and an age-period-cohort analysis was performed. RESULTS: Central and Northern countries with lower rates in the 2005 to 2007 period, such as France (5.28 and 1.93/100,000, men and women respectively) and Sweden (4.49 and 2.21/100,000), had descending period and cohort effects that decreased steeply from the earliest cohorts until those born in the 1940s, to then stabilize. Former nonmarket economy countries had mortality rates greater than 20/100,000 men and 10/100,000 women, and displayed a later start in the cohort effect fall, which continued in the younger cohorts. Mortality remained high in some countries of Southern and Eastern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in gastric cancer mortality was observed in both cohort and period effects but was larger in the cohorts, suggesting that the downward trends are likely to persist in countries with higher rates. In a few Western countries with very low rates an asymptote appears to have been reached for cohorts born after the 1940s, particularly in women.