Probabilité de fixation dans des modèles génétiques de populations à plusieurs allèles

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Processus de coalescence dans une population subdivisée avec possibilité de coalescences multiples

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Comparative evaluation of a new effective population size estimator based on approximate Bayesian computation

We describe and evaluate a new estimator of the effective population size (N-e), a critical parameter in evolutionary and conservation biology. This new "SummStat" N-e. estimator is based upon the use of summary statistics in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to infer N-e. Simulations of a Wright-Fisher population with known N-e show that the SummStat estimator is useful across a realistic range of individuals and loci sampled, generations between samples, and N-e values. We also address the paucity of information about the relative performance of N-e estimators by comparing the SUMMStat estimator to two recently developed likelihood-based estimators and a traditional moment-based estimator. The SummStat estimator is the least biased of the four estimators compared. In 32 of 36 parameter combinations investigated rising initial allele frequencies drawn from a Dirichlet distribution, it has the lowest bias. The relative mean square error (RMSE) of the SummStat estimator was generally intermediate to the others. All of the estimators had RMSE > 1 when small samples (n = 20, five loci) were collected a generation apart. In contrast, when samples were separated by three or more generations and Ne less than or equal to 50, the SummStat and likelihood-based estimators all had greatly reduced RMSE. Under the conditions simulated, SummStat confidence intervals were more conservative than the likelihood-based estimators and more likely to include true N-e. The greatest strength of the SummStat estimator is its flexible structure. This flexibility allows it to incorporate any, potentially informative summary statistic from Population genetic data.

Modèle de la compatibilité fondé sur l’attachement et la personnalité chez des couples en détresse

Cette thèse poursuit deux objectifs principaux. Le premier consiste à développer un modèle de la compatibilité conjugale fondé sur les notions d’attachement (évitement de la proximité et anxiété d’abandon) et de personnalité (névrotisme). Le deuxième objectif est d’examiner la validité prévisionnelle de ce modèle de compatibilité chez des couples en psychothérapie conjugale. Dans un premier temps, la présente thèse fait brièvement état de la situation des couples au Québec et des répercussions de la détresse conjugale. Par la suite, la recension de la documentation traite du concept de compatibilité entre conjoints en tant qu’alternative à la conceptualisation des dynamiques de couples. Cette analyse théorique montre ensuite la pertinence d’enrichir les modèles de compatibilité en y introduisant les notions d’attachement et de névrotisme. L’examen de ce modèle est suivi par une description des enjeux méthodologiques et statistiques à prendre en compte pour déterminer les fondements scientifiques des hypothèses sur la compatibilité conjugale. L’analyse de la validité prévisionnelle du modèle de compatibilité proposé compose le cœur de cette thèse. Pour ce faire, des couples effectuant une thérapie conjugale ont complété une série de questionnaires en début de suivi, dont l’Échelle d’ajustement dyadique (Spanier, 1976), le Questionnaire sur les expériences d’attachement amoureux (Brennan, Clark, & Shaver, 1998) et le NEO-FFI (Costa & McCrae, 1992). Les données des 365 couples de l’échantillon sont d’abord analysées en appliquant une méthode fondée sur les modèles d’interdépendance acteur-partenaire (APIM) (Kashy & Snyder, 1995). Les résultats démontrent que la présence d’évitement de la proximité est négativement liée à la satisfaction des conjoints eux-mêmes et à celle de leur partenaire. La méthode APIM révèle aussi que plus l’écart entre les conjoints sur l’évitement et le névrotisme est grand, plus les partenaires rapportent être insatisfaits de leur relation. Les résultats sont ensuite examinés à l’aide d’une technique statistique, l’analyse des regroupements naturels ou des clusters, susceptible de mieux examiner la notion de compatibilité. Cette analyse montre la présence de sept regroupements naturels de conjoints selon leurs scores d’attachement et de névrotisme. De plus, lorsque ces clusters sont croisés en fonction de la détresse conjugale, trois grands sous-types de couples qui engendrent des profils de détresse conjugale distincts émergent des analyses. Ces clusters présentent enfin des différences qualitatives quant à la nature des mandats thérapeutiques confiés aux thérapeutes. Les implications des résultats sont discutées en regard de la validation du modèle de compatibilité fondé sur les notions d’attachement et de névrotisme. Certaines données de la présente thèse suggèrent que ce ne sont pas les caractéristiques de l’un ou de l’autre des conjoints prises isolément, mais plutôt la combinaison des caractéristiques des conjoints qui explique le mieux la nature et la gravité de la détresse conjugale vécue. Plusieurs défis conceptuels, théoriques et méthodologiques sont discutés et des pistes de recherches futures sont proposées afin de consolider les assises scientifiques du modèle de compatibilité.

As contribuições de Seymour Fisher para os estudos em imagem corporal

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Utilização da discriminação grafica de Fisher para indicação dos dermatoglifos como referencial de potencialidade de atletas de basquetebol

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

von Wright`s Therapy to Jorgensen`s Syndrome

In his last papers about deontic logic, von Wright sustained that there is no genuine logic of norms. We argue in this paper that this striking statement by the father of deontic logic should not be understood as a death sentence to the subject. Rather, it indicates a profound change in von Wright`s understanding about the epistemic and ontological role of logic in the field of norms. Instead of a logical constructivism of deontic systems revealing a necessary structure of prescriptive discourse, which marked his earlier efforts, he adopted the view that such systems should be seem as mere objects of comparison, i.e. as providing practical standards of rationality for norm-giving activity. Within such view he proposed an interpretation of standard deontic logic in such a way to free deontic logicians from the philosophical difficulties related to the so-called Jorgensen`s dilemma and deontic paradoxes. This effort, as we claim in the present paper, is an application of Wittgenstein`s therapeutic method to dissolve philosophical difficulties caused by the use of logical tools to model relations between norms.

Development and implementation of the population Fisher information matrix for the evaluation of population pharmacokinetic designs.

In population pharmacokinetic studies, the precision of parameter estimates is dependent on the population design. Methods based on the Fisher information matrix have been developed and extended to population studies to evaluate and optimize designs. In this paper we propose simple programming tools to evaluate population pharmacokinetic designs. This involved the development of an expression for the Fisher information matrix for nonlinear mixed-effects models, including estimation of the variance of the residual error. We implemented this expression as a generic function for two software applications: S-PLUS and MATLAB. The evaluation of population designs based on two pharmacokinetic examples from the literature is shown to illustrate the efficiency and the simplicity of this theoretic approach. Although no optimization method of the design is provided, these functions can be used to select and compare population designs among a large set of possible designs, avoiding a lot of simulations.

La Réforme des soins en santé mentale en Belgique: analyse d'un modéle

RESUMO: O relatório anual de 2001 da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS), anunciou o interesse social dos problemas crescentes em matéria de saúde mental e relativo à necessidade urgente de uma extensão, como também, para uma melhor organização da oferta de tratamento. Sob proposta da Bélgica, esta observação foi traduzida em uma resolução « Mental health :responding to the call for action » (déclaração de intenção do 18 de maio de 2002). Nós notamos que certos países, como os Estados Unidos ou a Grã Bretanha transformam sistematicamente o tratamento residencial em um tratamento mais dirigido para a comunidade. Eles também se concentram na descoberta prematura dos problemas psiquiátricos. Este fenômeno de désinstitutionalisação obteve resultados concretos e traz um ganho certo, tanto para os atores do campo da saúde mental, como também para os candidatos a um tratamento. O tratamento das pessoas dentro do seu meio de vida é muito claramente reconhecido. As evoluções que marcaram os tratamentos em saúde mental na Bélgica durante estes utimos 40 anos mostram que vários paços importantes já foram feitos. A reforma tem como objetivo converter a oferta hospitalar e montar tratamentos dirigidos para e dentro da comunidade pela criação de equipas móveis que se inscrevem no dispositivo comunitário, historicamente muito activo bem que sub-financiado. A reorganização dos sistemas de tratamento está baseada na criação de redes, para construir um dispositivo flexível e contínuo que considera as necessidades dos pacientes. Esta reforma é, ao mesmo tempo, ambiciosa e complexa,. É uma visão nova, uma mudança de cultura, não só, para todos os atores da saúde mental, mas também para os pacientes e suas famílias. A reforma está baseada numa visão global e integrada que associa no mesmo movimento todas as autoridades competentes relativamente a saúde que elas sejam federais, regionais ou comunitárias.-----------ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization’s (WHO) annual report of 2001 identified a social interest for the increasing problems related to mental health and the urgent need of an extension and a better organization of mental health care. On a proposal of Belgium this statement was transformed into a resolution « Mental health: responding to the call for action» (Declaration of Intent, May 18th, 2002). Some countries such as the USA or the UK systematically dismantled in-patient residential care in favor of more community-based care and a focus on early detection of psychiatric problems. This de -institutionalization has clearly and concretely paid off and the value of bringing mental health care to claimants and treating them in their own residence was acknowledged. In Belgium, the evolutions which have shaped mental health care in the last forty years indicate that a number of important steps are already taken. The Reform aims to convert the supply of hospital care into community-based mental health care services through the creation of mobile teams which offer services in everyday life of the user. These teams take place in the community, historically highly active howbeit underfunded. The reorganization of health care system relies upon the creation of networks in order to build a flexible and continuous device which take into account user’s needs. This Reform can be seen as both ambitious and complex. It is a completely new vision, a major cultural shift for all mental health care stakeholders, but also for users and their relatives. The Reform is based on a global and integrated approach which links I, a same movement all relevant health authorities whether they be federal, regional or community. de-institutionalization – community mental health – recovery - users and families involvement - networking.