Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data: forecasting output growth in the United States

Many macroeconomic series, such as U.S. real output growth, are sampled quarterly, although potentially useful predictors are often observed at a higher frequency. We look at whether a mixed data-frequency sampling (MIDAS) approach can improve forecasts of output growth. The MIDAS specification used in the comparison uses a novel way of including an autoregressive term. We find that the use of monthly data on the current quarter leads to significant improvement in forecasting current and next quarter output growth, and that MIDAS is an effective way to exploit monthly data compared with alternative methods.

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Mixed-frequency testing of induction machines using inverters

This work has concentrated on the testing of induction machines to determine their temperature rise at full-load without mechanically coupling to a load machine. The achievements of this work are outlined as follows. 1. Four distinct categories of mixed-frequency test using an inverter have been identified by the author. The simulation results of these tests as well as the conventional 2-supply test have been analysed in detail. 2. Experimental work on mixed-frequency tests has been done on a small (4 kW) squirrel cage induction machine using a voltage source PWM inverter. Two out of the four categories of test suggested have been tested and the temperature rise results were found to be similar to the results of a direct loading test. Further, one of the categories of test proposed has been performed on a 3.3 kW slip-ring induction machine for the conformation of the rotor values. 3. A low current supply mixed-frequency test-rig has been proposed. For this purpose, a resonant bank was connected to the DC link of the inverter in order to maintain the exchange of power between the test machine and the resonant bank instead of between the main supply and the test machine. The resonant bank was then replaced with a special electro-mechanical energy storage unit. The current of the main power supply was then reduced in amplitude. 4. A variable inertia test for full load temperature rise testing of induction machines has been introduced. This test is purely mechanical in nature and does not require any electrical connection of the test machine to any other machine. It has the advantage of drawing very little net power from the supply.

Essays on mixed-frequency data : forecasting and unit root testing

Doutoramento em Economia

Nowcasting Scottish GDP Growth

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

Essays in macroeconometrics

The knowledge of the current state of the economy is crucial for policy makers, economists and analysts. However, a key economic variable, the gross domestic product (GDP), are typically colected on a quartely basis and released with substancial delays by the national statistical agencies. The first aim of this paper is to use a dynamic factor model to forecast the current russian GDP, using a set of timely monthly information. This approach can cope with the typical data flow problems of non-synchronous releases, mixed frequency and the curse of dimensionality. Given that Russian economy is largely dependent on the commodity market, our second motivation relates to study the effects of innovations in the russian macroeconomic fundamentals on commodity price predictability. We identify these innovations through a news index which summarizes deviations of offical data releases from the expectations generated by the DFM and perform a forecasting exercise comparing the performance of different models.

New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

The frequency of anti-beta(2)-glycoprotein I antibodies is low and these antibodies are associated with pulmonary hypertension in mixed connective tissue disease

The objective of this study is to evaluate the prevalence of antiphospholipid antibodies, mainly anti-beta(2)-glycoprotein I (anti-beta(2)-GPI), and their possible clinical and laboratory relevance in mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD). This study included 39 consecutive patients with MCTD (Kasukawa`s criteria) from January, 2005, to March, 2007, and compared them with 21 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. IgG and IgM anticardiolipin (aCL) and anti-beta(2)-GPI were measured by ELISA. Lupus anticoagulant (LA) was detected by functional coagulation tests. Medium to high titres of aCL and anti-beta(2)-GPI antibodies were found in sera from four (10.2%) MCTD patients. One of these patients was found to be positive for IgM aCL, IgM anti-beta(2)-GPI and LA antibodies simultaneously. Additionally, this patient had a previous history of foetal loss in the second trimester and new-onset pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The other three patients had none of the manifestations of antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) or PAH. The mean value of IgG anti-beta(2)-GPI was higher among those MCTD patients with PAH than in the group without PAH (34.2 +/- 46.8 vs 12.3 +/- 9.1, P = 0.018). None of the controls were positive for antiphospholipid antibodies. High to moderate titres of anti-beta(2)-GPI as well as APS were rare in MCTD, and these antibodies may be correlated with the development of PAH in these patients. Lupus (2009) 18, 618-621.

Molecular characterization of G and P-types bovine rotavirus strains from Goiás, Brazil: high frequency of mixed P-type infections

In this study, 331 samples from calves less than one month old from a dairy herd in the district of Piracanjuba, state of Goiás, Brazil were tested for rotavirus. Thirty-three samples (9.9%) tested positive for rotavirus. Out of those, 31 were submitted to G and P characterization by reverse transcription followed by semi-nested polymerase chain reaction. Two samples were characterized as G6P[1], three as G10P[11] and five as G6P[11]. The majority of the samples (51.6%) displayed multiple P genotypes (P-genotype mixtures), including typical human genotypes P[4] and P[6M], suggesting the occurrence of co-infections and genetic reassortment. Also, the detection of human genotypes in bovine samples may be considered evidence of the zoonotic potential of rotaviruses. To our knowledge, this is the first report of such a high frequency of P genotype mixtures in bovine rotavirus samples. It also increases data on G and P rotavirus genotypes circulating in dairy herds in Brazil and can help in the development of more efficient immunization approaches, thereby controlling infection and reducing economical losses.

A simple model for the estimation of congenital malformation frequency in racially mixed populations

A simple model is proposed, using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate malformation frequencies in racial groups based on data obtained from hospital services. This model uses the proportions of racial admixture, and the observed malformation frequency. It was applied to two defects: postaxial polydactyly and cleft lip, the frequencies of which are recognizedly heterogeneous among racial groups. The frequencies estimated in each racial group were those expected for these malformations, which proves the applicability of the method.

Type-2 diabetes mellitus and the frequency of the G22A polymorphism of the adenosine deaminase gene in a mixed population in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Complex kinetics, high frequency oscillations and temperature compensation in the electro-oxidation of ethylene glycol on platinum

Despite the fact that the majority of the catalytic electro-oxidation of small organic molecules presents oscillatory kinetics under certain conditions, there are few systematic studies concerning the influence of experimental parameters on the oscillatory dynamics. Of the studies available, most are devoted to C1 molecules and just some scattered data are available for C2 molecules. We present in this work a comprehensive study of the electro-oxidation of ethylene glycol on polycrystalline platinum surfaces and in alkaline media. The system was studied by means of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, cyclic voltammetry, and chronoamperometry, and the impact of parameters such as applied current, ethylene glycol concentration, and temperature were investigated. As in the case of other parent systems, the instabilities in this system were associated with a hidden negative differential resistance, as identified by impedance data. Very rich and robust dynamics were observed, including the presence of harmonic and mixed mode oscillations and chaotic states, in some parameter region. Oscillation frequencies of about 16 Hz characterized the fastest oscillations ever reported for the electro-oxidation of small organic molecules. Those high frequencies were strongly influenced by the electrolyte pH and far less affected by the EG concentration. The system was regularly dependent on temperature under voltammetric conditions but rather independent within the oscillatory regime.

Malaria during pregnancy in a reference centre from the Brazilian Amazon: unexpected increase in the frequency of Plasmodium falciparum infections

Malaria remains globally the most important parasitic disease of man. Data on its deleterious effects during pregnancy have been extensively documented in hyperendemic, holoendemic, and mesoendemic areas from Africa and Asia where Plasmodium falciparum is responsible for almost all infections. However, knowledge about malaria during pregnancy in areas where transmission is unstable and P. vivax is the most prevalent species, such as the Brazilian Amazon, is scarce. Here, we report a preliminary cross sectional descriptive study, carried out at the Fundação de Medicina Tropical do Amazonas, a reference centre for diagnosis and treatment of tropical diseases in the west-Amazon (Manaus, Brazil). A total of 1699 febrile childbearing age women had positive thick blood smears to Plasmodium species, between January and November 1997: 1401 (82.5%) were positive for P. vivax , 286 (16.8%) for P. falciparum and 12 (0.07%) carried mixed infections. From the malarious patients, 195 were pregnant. The ratio of P. falciparum to P. vivax infections in the group of non-pregnant infected women was 1:5.6 while it was 1:2.3 in that of pregnant infected ones. Similar rates or even proportionally more vivax infections during pregnancy were expected to occur, in function of the contraindication of primaquine with the resulting increased P. vivax relapse rates. Such an observation suggests that the mechanism of resistance/susceptibility to infection and/or malaria pathogenesis in pregnant women may differ according to Plasmodium species and that the extensively described increase in the frequencies of malaria infection during pregnancy may be specifically due to P. falciparum infection.

Intake and home use of olive oil or mixed oils in relation to healthy lifestyles in a Mediterranean population. Findings from the prospective Pizarra study.

Discordances exist in epidemiological studies regarding the association between the intake of nutrients and death and disease. We evaluated the social and health profile of persons who consumed olive oil in a prospective population cohort investigation (Pizarra study) with a 6-year follow-up. A food frequency questionnaire and a 7 d quantitative questionnaire were administered to 538 persons. The type of oil used in food preparation was determined by direct measurement of the fatty acids in samples obtained from the kitchens of the participants at baseline and after follow-up for 6 years. The fatty acid composition of the serum phospholipids was used as an endogenous marker of the type of oil consumed. Total fat intake accounted for a mean 40 % of the energy (at baseline and after follow-up). The concordance in intake of MUFA over the study period was high. The fatty acid composition of the serum phospholipids was significantly associated with the type of oil consumed and with fish intake. The concentration of polar compounds and polymers, indicative of degradation, was greater in oils from the kitchens where sunflower oil or refined olive oil was used, in oils used for deep frying and in oils that had been reused for frying five times or more. Consumption of olive oil was directly associated with educational level. Part of the discordance found in epidemiological studies between diet and health may be due to the handling of oils during food preparation. The intake of olive oil is associated with other healthy habits.

Frequency and impact of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean).

BACKGROUND: As little such data is available in African populations, we investigated the prevalence of ADPKD and the impact of the disease in the Seychelles islands, where approximately 65% of the population is of African descent and 30% of Caucasian or mixed descent. METHODS: Prevalent cases were identified over a 3-year period by requesting all the doctors in the country (most of them are employed within a national health system) to refer all presumed or confirmed cases and by systematically examining the family members of all confirmed cases. The diagnosis was based on standard criteria including ultrasonographic findings and family history. RESULTS: Forty-two cases were identified in this population of 74,331 inhabitants, a total prevalence (per 100,000 total population) of 57 (95% CI, 41-76). All but one of the cases were of Caucasian descent so that the prevalence rates of the disease in the populations of Black and Caucasian descents were respectively 2 (0-11) and 184 (132-249). The prevalence rates of the gene(s) carriers were estimated to be 75 (45-117) in the total population respectively 6 (0-33) and 236 (140-372) in the Black and Caucasian populations. Haplotype analysis in 58 cases from three families showed a common DNA fragment in all affected individuals. Cases had significantly higher blood pressure compared to the general population and 21% had serum creatinine higher than 120 mumol/l. Among the established pedigrees, mean age of death between 1960 and 1995 (haemodialysis was introduced in 1992) was younger in subjects with than those without ADPKD (50.5 vs 67.7 years; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In the Seychelles, ADPKD clusters in the Caucasian population (possibly a founder effect), is rare in individuals of black descent, and is associated with substantial clinical and survival impact.