On the weights of nations: assigning voting weights in a heterogenous union

Consider a voting procedure where countries, states, or districts comprising a union each elect representatives who then participate in later votes at the union level on their behalf. The countries, provinces, and states may vary in their populations and composition. If we wish to maximize the total expected utility of all agents in the union, how to weight the votes of the representatives of the different countries, states or districts at the union level? We provide a simple characterization of the efficient voting rule in terms of the weights assigned to different districts and the voting threshold (how large a qualified majority is needed to induce change versus the status quo). Next, in the context of a model of the correlation structure of agents preferences, we analyze how voting weights relate to the population size of a country. We then analyze the voting weights in Council of the European Union under the Nice Treaty and the recently proposed constitution, and contrast them under different versions of our model.

Going beyond energy intensity to understand the energy metabolism of nations: the case of Argentina

The link between energy consumption and economic growth has been widely studied in the economic literature. Understanding this relationship is important from both an environmental and a socio-economic point of view, as energy consumption is crucial to economic activity and human environmental impact. This relevance is even higher for developing countries, since energy consumption per unit of output varies through the phases of development, increasing from an agricultural stage to an industrial one and then decreasing for certain service based economies. In the Argentinean case, the relevance of energy consumption to economic development seems to be particularly important. While energy intensity seems to exhibit a U-Shaped curve from 1990 to 2003 decreasing slightly after that year, total energy consumption increases along the period of analysis. Why does this happen? How can we relate this result with the sustainability debate? All these questions are very important due to Argentinean hydrocarbons dependence and due to the recent reduction in oil and natural gas reserves, which can lead to a lack of security of supply. In this paper we study Argentinean energy consumption pattern for the period 1990-2007, to discuss current and future energy and economic sustainability. To this purpose, we developed a conventional analysis, studying energy intensity, and a non conventional analysis, using the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) accounting methodology. Both methodologies show that the development process followed by Argentina has not been good enough to assure sustainability in the long term. Instead of improving energy use, energy intensity has increased. The current composition of its energy mix, and the recent economic crisis in Argentina, as well as its development path, are some of the possible explanations.

The attractiveness of nations in global competition : an empirical assessment of the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events, 1990-2012

This dissertation aims to investigate empirical evidence on the importance and influence of attractiveness of nations in global competition. The notion of country attractiveness, which has been widely developed in the research areas of international business, tourism and migration, is a multi-dimensional construct to measure a country's characteristics with regard to its market or destination that attract international investors, tourists and migrants. This analytical concept provides an account of the mechanism as to how potential stakeholders evaluate more attractive countries based on certain criteria. Thus, in the field of international sport-event bidding, do international sport event owners also have specific country attractiveness for their sport event hosts? The dissertation attempts to address this research question by statistically assessing the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events. Based on theories of signaling and soft power, country attractiveness is defined and measured as the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. This thesis proceeds to examine the concept of sport-event-hosting strategy and explore multi-level factors affecting the success in international sport-event bidding. By exploring past history of the Olympic Movement from theoretical perspectives, the thesis proposes and tests the hypotheses that economic, social and environmental attractiveness of a country may be correlated with its bid wins or the success of sport-event-hosting strategy. Quantitative analytical methods with various robustness checks are employed with using collected data on bidding results of major events in Olympic sports during the period from 1990 to 2012. The analysis results reveal that event owners of international Olympic sports are likely to prefer countries that have higher economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. The empirical assessment of this thesis suggests that high country attractiveness can be an essential element of prerequisites for a city/country to secure in order to bid with an increased chance of success.

Productivity and the welfare of nations

We show that the welfare of a representative consumer can be related to observable aggregatedata. To a first order, the change in welfare is summarized by (the present value of) the Solowproductivity residual and by the growth rate of the capital stock per capita. We also show thatproductivity and the capital stock suffice to calculate differences in welfare across countries, withboth variables computed as log level deviations from a reference country. These results hold forarbitrary production technology, regardless of the degree of product market competition, and applyto open economies as well if TFP is constructed using absorption rather than GDP as the measureof output. They require that TFP be constructed using prices and quantities as perceived byconsumers. Thus, factor shares need to be calculated using after-tax wages and rental rates, andwill typically sum to less than one. We apply these results to calculate welfare gaps and growthrates in a sample of developed countries for which high-quality TFP and capital data are available.We find that under realistic scenarios the United Kingdom and Spain had the highest growth ratesof welfare over our sample period of 1985-2005, but the United States had the highest level ofwelfare.

Technological change and the wealth of nations

We discuss a unified theory of directed technological change and technologyadoption that can shed light on the causes of persistent productivity differencesacross countries. In our model, new technologies are designed in advanced countries and diffuse endogenously to less developed countries. Our framework is richenough to highlight three broad reasons for productivity differences: inappropriatetechnologies, policy-induced barriers to technology adoption, and within-countrymisallocations across sectors due to policy distortions. We also discuss the effectsof two aspects of globalization, trade in goods and migration, on the wealth ofnations through their impact on the direction of technical progress. By doing so,we illustrate some of the equalizing and unequalizing forces of globalization.

Reconstructing native American migrations from whole-genome and whole-exome data.

There is great scientific and popular interest in understanding the genetic history of populations in the Americas. We wish to understand when different regions of the continent were inhabited, where settlers came from, and how current inhabitants relate genetically to earlier populations. Recent studies unraveled parts of the genetic history of the continent using genotyping arrays and uniparental markers. The 1000 Genomes Project provides a unique opportunity for improving our understanding of population genetic history by providing over a hundred sequenced low coverage genomes and exomes from Colombian (CLM), Mexican-American (MXL), and Puerto Rican (PUR) populations. Here, we explore the genomic contributions of African, European, and especially Native American ancestry to these populations. Estimated Native American ancestry is 48% in MXL, 25% in CLM, and 13% in PUR. Native American ancestry in PUR is most closely related to populations surrounding the Orinoco River basin, confirming the Southern American ancestry of the Taíno people of the Caribbean. We present new methods to estimate the allele frequencies in the Native American fraction of the populations, and model their distribution using a demographic model for three ancestral Native American populations. These ancestral populations likely split in close succession: the most likely scenario, based on a peopling of the Americas 16 thousand years ago (kya), supports that the MXL Ancestors split 12.2kya, with a subsequent split of the ancestors to CLM and PUR 11.7kya. The model also features effective populations of 62,000 in Mexico, 8,700 in Colombia, and 1,900 in Puerto Rico. Modeling Identity-by-descent (IBD) and ancestry tract length, we show that post-contact populations also differ markedly in their effective sizes and migration patterns, with Puerto Rico showing the smallest effective size and the earlier migration from Europe. Finally, we compare IBD and ancestry assignments to find evidence for relatedness among European founders to the three populations.

Fair of Nations (1906)

Official program "Fair of Nations" for the benefit of the Niagara Falls General Hospital.