1000 resultados para Migration estimation


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The understanding of the embryogenesis in living systems requires reliable quantitative analysis of the cell migration throughout all the stages of development. This is a major challenge of the "in-toto" reconstruction based on different modalities of "in-vivo" imaging techniques -spatio-temporal resolution and image artifacts and noise. Several methods for cell tracking are available, but expensive manual interaction -time and human resources- is always required to enforce coherence. Because of this limitation it is necessary to restrict the experiments or assume an uncontrolled error rate. Is it possible to obtain automated reliable measurements of migration? can we provide a seed for biologists to complete cell lineages efficiently? We propose a filtering technique that considers trajectories as spatio-temporal connected structures that prunes out those that might introduce noise and false positives by using multi-dimensional morphological operators.

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The need for methods of indirectly estimating migration flows is particularly important in developing countries, where migration data are often incomplete and inaccurate. This paper focuses on the use of an indirect internal migration estimation method applied to Mexican and Indonesian census data. It shows that the mobility propensities of infants can be used to infer the corresponding propensities of all other age groups. However, the promise of this method is reduced in instances of inadequate data, and great care must be taken to identify outlying values in the data and to correct obviously erroneous patterns. Future work increasingly will be directed to this issue.

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Este trabajo plantea una serie de deficiencias presentes en la Encuesta de Migraciones (EM), publicada anualmente por el INE a partir de la EPA. Consciente de la subestimación de la movilidad procedente de esta fuente estadística, el INE ha introducido recientemente ciertos cambios metodológicos. Sin embargo, no se han obtenido mejoras significativas y la misma continúa disponible para los investigadores. Las razones que se encuentran detrás de la limitada calidad de la EM son de tipo estadístico y afectan a la precisión y al sesgo de las estimaciones. Se desatienden principios básicos de la estimación para dominios pequeños, se incumplen los supuestos del muestreo por conglomerados y se incurre en graves sesgos debidos, probablemente, a la falta de respuesta. Consideramos que la investigación del hecho migratorio a través de la técnica del muestreo estratificado de poblaciones exige un tratamiento específico en la encuesta, dado el tamaño y las características de este dominio.

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Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a highly flexible technique that allows the estimation of parameters under demographic models that are too complex to be handled by full-likelihood methods. We assess the utility of this method to estimate the parameters of range expansion in a two-dimensional stepping-stone model, using samples from either a single deme or multiple demes. A minor modification to the ABC procedure is introduced, which leads to an improvement in the accuracy of estimation. The method is then used to estimate the expansion time and migration rates for five natural common vole populations in Switzerland typed for a sex-linked marker and a nuclear marker. Estimates based on both markers suggest that expansion occurred < 10,000 years ago, after the most recent glaciation, and that migration rates are strongly male biased.

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A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

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Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

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A migration of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), Heliothis punctifera (Walker) and Agrotis munda Walker was tracked from Cameron Corner (29degrees00'S, 141degrees00'E) in inland Australia to the Wilcannia region, approximately 400 km to the south-east. A relatively isolated source population was located using a distribution model to predict winter breeding, and confirmed by surveys using sweep netting for larvae. When a synoptic weather pattern likely to produce suitable conditions for migration developed, moths were trapped in the source region. The next morning a simulation model of migration using wind-field data generated by a numerical weather-prediction model was run. Surveys using sweep netting for larvae, trapping and flush counts were then conducted in and around the predicted moth fallout area, approximately 400 km to the south-east. Pollen carried on the probosces of moths caught in this area was compared with that on moths caught in the source area. The survey data and pollen comparisons provided evidence that migration had occurred, and that the migration model gave accurate estimation of the fallout region. The ecological and economic implications of such migrations are discussed.

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Does return migration affect entrepreneurship? This question has important implications for the debate on the economic development effects of migration for origin countries. The existing literature has, however, not addressed how the estimation of the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self-selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper uses a representative household survey conducted in Mozambique in order to address this research question. We exploit variation provided by displacement caused by civil war in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to negative unobservable self-selection at both and each of the initial and return stages of migration, which results in an under-estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naïve’ estimator not controlling for self-selection. Indeed, ‘naïve’ estimates point to a 13 pp increase in the probability of owning a business when there is a return migrant in the household relative to non-migrants only, whereas excluding the double effect of unobservable self-selection, this effect becomes significantly larger - between 24 pp and 29 pp, depending on the method of estimation and source of variation used.

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Are return migrants more productive than non-migrants? If so, is it a causal effect or simply self-selection? Existing literature has not reached a consensus on the role of return migration for origin countries. To answer these research questions, an empirical analysis was performed based on household data collected in Cape Verde. One of the most common identification problems in the migration literature is the presence of migrant self-selection. In order to disentangle potential selection bias, we use instrumental variable estimation using variation provided by unemployment rates in migrant destination countries, which is compared with OLS and Nearest Neighbor Matching (NNM) methods. The results using the instrumental variable approach provide evidence of labour income gains due to return migration, while OLS underestimates the coefficient of interest. This bias points towards negative self-selection of return migrants on unobserved characteristics, although the different estimates cannot be distinguished statistically. Interestingly, migration duration and occupational changes after migration do not seem to influence post-migration income. There is weak evidence that return migrants from the United States have higher income gains caused by migration than the ones who returned from Portugal.

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The dispersal process, by which individuals or other dispersing agents such as gametes or seeds move from birthplace to a new settlement locality, has important consequences for the dynamics of genes, individuals, and species. Many of the questions addressed by ecology and evolutionary biology require a good understanding of species' dispersal patterns. Much effort has thus been devoted to overcoming the difficulties associated with dispersal measurement. In this context, genetic tools have long been the focus of intensive research, providing a great variety of potential solutions to measuring dispersal. This methodological diversity is reviewed here to help (molecular) ecologists find their way toward dispersal inference and interpretation and to stimulate further developments.

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We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

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Seqüências tipo mitocondriais têm comumente sido encontradas no genoma nuclear de diversos organismos. Quando acidentalmente incluídas em estudos de seqüências mitocondriais, diversas conclusões errôneas podem ser obtidas. No entanto, estes pseudogenes nucleares tipo mitocondriais podem ser usados para a estimativa da taxa relativa de evolução de genes mitocondriais e também como grupo externo em análises filogenéticas. No presente trabalho, seqüências mitocondriais com características do tipo de pseudogene, tais como deleções e/ou inserções e códons de parada, foram encontradas em tamarins (Saguinus spp., Callitrichinae, Primates). A análise filogenética permitiu a estimativa do tempo da migração da seqüência mitocondrial para o genoma nuclear e algumas inferências filogenéticas. A escolha de um grupo externo não adequado (Aotus infulatus) não permitiu uma reconstrução filogenética confiável da subfamília Callitrichinae. A divergência bastante antiga de Cebidae (Callitrichinae, Aotinae e Cebinae) pode ter favorecido o aparecimento de homoplasias, obscurecendo a análise.

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The multiple high-pressure (HP), low-temperature (LT) metamorphic units of Western and Central Anatolia offer a great opportunity to investigate the subduction- and continental accretion-related evolution of the eastern limb of the long-lived Aegean subduction system. Recent reports of the HP–LT index mineral Fe-Mg-carpholite in three metasedimentary units of the Gondwana-derived Anatolide–Tauride continental block (namely the Afyon Zone, the Ören Unit and the southern Menderes Massif) suggest a more complicated scenario than the single-continental accretion model generally put forward in previous studies. This study presents the first isotopic dates (white mica 40Ar–39Ar geochronology), and where possible are combined with P–T estimates (chlorite thermometry, phengite barometry, multi-equilibrium thermobarometry), on carpholite-bearing rocks from these three HP–LT metasedimentary units. It is shown that, in the Afyon Zone, carpholite-bearing assemblages were retrogressed through greenschist-facies conditions at c. 67–62 Ma. Early retrograde stages in the Ören Unit are dated to 63–59 Ma. In the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit (HP Mesozoic cover of the southern Menderes Massif), HP retrograde stages are dated to c. 45 Ma, and post-collisional cooling to c. 26 Ma. These new results support that the Ören Unit represents the westernmost continuation of the Afyon Zone, whereas the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit correlates with the Cycladic Blueschist Unit of the Aegean Domain. In Western Anatolia, three successive HP–LT metamorphic belts thus formed: the northernmost Tavşanlı Zone (c. 88–82 Ma), the Ören–Afyon Zone (between 70 and 65 Ma), and the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit (c. 52–45 Ma). The southward younging trend of the HP–LT metamorphism from the upper and internal to the deeper and more external structural units, as in the Aegean Domain, points to the persistence of subduction in Western Anatolia between 93–90 and c. 35 Ma. After the accretion of the Menderes–Tauride terrane, in Eocene times, subduction stopped, leading to continental collision and associated Barrovian-type metamorphism. Because, by contrast, the Aegean subduction did remain active due to slab roll-back and trench migration, the eastern limb (below Southwestern Anatolia) of the Hellenic slab was dramatically curved and consequently teared. It therefore is suggested that the possibility for subduction to continue after the accretion of buoyant (e.g. continental) terranes probably depends much on palaeogeography.

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requirements for Filipino performing artists, effectively closing this migration channel. I employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy using the share of performing artists at baseline in each Philippine province as a continuous policy variable. International migration falls in response to the policy change by 1.2%. The effect on international migration is larger than the policy change itself would suggest, indicating the importance of spillovers across migrant occupations. Domestically, more children are employed, and adults are more likely to be unemployed or engaged in short-term work.

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Mode of access: Internet.