Russia’s ‘Middle East’: the escalation of religious conflicts in the Northern Caucasus. OSW Commentary Number 207/04.04.2016

The eastern part of the Northern Caucasus (Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia) is becoming an increasingly distinct region in cultural, civilisational and social terms when compared to the rest of the Russian Federation. The situation on the ground there bears greater resemblance to the Middle East than to Russia: Islam is the key factor organising socio-political life, and conflicts inside the Muslim community, often involving bloodshed, are the driving power of developments in the region. The conflict is between the two main branches of Islam in the Northern Caucasus: Sufism linked to the official clergy and government, and Salafism which is gaining more and more supporters among young people in the Caucasus. Tension, including clashes over mosques, attacks, mass detentions, etc. has been observed mainly in Dagestan and Ingushetia.

New Middle East Cold War: Saudi Arabia and Iran's Rivalry

The competing powers of Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to redress and reverse the strategic imbalance and direction of the Middle East’s regional politics. The 1979 Iranian Revolution catapulted these two states into an embittered rivalry. The fall of Saddam Hussein following the 2003 U.S. led invasion, the establishment of a Shi’ite Iraq and the 2011 Arab Uprisings have further inflamed tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia have not confronted each other militarily, but rather have divided the region into two armed camps on the basis of political and religious ideology in seeking regional allies and promulgating sectarianism as they continue to exploit the region’s weak states in a series of proxy wars ranging from conflicts in Iraq to Lebanon. The Saudi-Iranian strategic and geopolitical rivalry is further complicated by a religious and ideological rivalry, as tensions represent two opposing aspirations for Islamic leadership with two vastly differing political systems. The conflict is between Saudi Arabia, representing Sunni Islam via Wahhabism, and Iran, representing Shi’ite Islam through Khomeinism. The nature of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry has led many Middle East experts to identify their rivalry as a “New Middle East Cold War.” The Saudi-Iranian rivalry has important implications for regional stability and U.S. national security interests. Therefore, this thesis seeks to address the question: Is a cold war framework applicable when analyzing the Saudi Arabian and Iranian relationship?

Russia’s Middle East policy after the Arab revolutions. OSW Commentary No. 59, 2011-07-26

Russia’s policy towards the Middle East is instrumental. Its activity in the region has been growing since the middle of the last decade, and its aim is to help Moscow achieve its objectives in other areas, particularly in its policies towards the US and Europe, as well as its energy policy. The establishment of these political influences constitutes a bargaining chip for Russia in its relations with the US. Russia’s participation in resolving conflicts is aimed at building up its image as a supra-regional power. Russia’s Middle East policy is a key element in its contacts with the Muslim world. At the same time, Russia’s policy in the region remains cautious – despite its return to the region, Russia has not decided to ‘play’ for the Middle East, and its position and role in the region remain limited. The balance of power in the Middle East has been shifting in the aftermath of the Arab revolutions. However, it does not seem that they have opened up larger opportunities for Russian policy in the region. The Russian elite has been divided in its assessment of the consequences of these events. One part of it has displayed scepticism, treating the revolutions rather as a threat than a chance to strengthen their own position. The revolutions were not seen as democratisation processes, but rather as a destabilisation of the region and as posing an increased danger from radical Islam. For the other part of the elite, the revolutions were the natural consequence of the social changes occurring in the region. This internal dispute made it difficult for Russia to present a cohesive approach to the Arab revolutions, and its stance was reactive. The defensive position which Moscow adopted showed that Russia did not have the potential to mould the political situation, either in the region as a whole or its individual countries; neither did it display any willingness to do so. What Moscow is doing is positioning itself in such a way so as not to spoil relations with any other actor in the region, and to be able to exploit any possible emerging opportunities in case of further-reaching changes.

War Crimes and Shifting Borders in the Middle East. CEPS Essay No. 14, 11 September 2014

The summer of 2014 saw an explosion of violence in the Middle East: Israel delivered a sledgehammer blow against Gaza, Lebanon was again the scene of terrorist onslaught, and the relentless war in Syria pushed the numbers of casualties and displaced people to record highs. In terms of geopolitical change, however, the advance of the ‘Islamic State’ and the emergence of a de facto independent Iraqi Kurdistan are the most important recent developments in the region. Common to all these conflicts are the levels of barbarity involved in this struggle for a place in the region’s security order.

Does ICT promote democracy and economic freedom in Middle East?

This study investigates the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) expansion on economic and social freedom in the Middle East (Bahrain, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and United Arab Emirates) for the period of 1996 to 2005. This study is unique as it analyzes the effect of institutional resistance (governments’ restrictions) on ICT development, economic freedom and democracy. The results show that institutional resistance poses a significant negative effect on ICT development and democracy. Results also show that ICT expansion in Middle East has not only been effective in bridging the Digital Divide, but that it had a positive impact on promoting civil liberties and economic freedom in a region that is vulnerable to political, social, and global conflicts.

Hope in the Middle East:malleability beliefs, hope, and the willingness to compromise for peace

The importance of hope has long been asserted in the field of conflict resolution. However, little is actually known about either how to induce hope or what effects hope has on conciliatory attitudes. In the current research, we tested whether (1) hope is based upon beliefs regarding conflict malleability and (2) hope predicts support for concessions for peace. Study 1, a correlational study conducted among Israeli Jews, revealed that malleability beliefs regarding conflicts in general are associated with hope regarding the Israeli–Palestinian conflict as well as with support for concessions. In Study 2, we established causality using an experimental manipulation of beliefs regarding conflicts being malleable (vs. fixed). Findings have both theoretical and practical implications regarding inducing hope in intractable conflicts, thus promoting the attitudes so critical for peacemaking.

Stochastic modelling of the reservoir lithological and petrophysical attributes. A case study of the Middle East carbonate reservoir

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Internationalization process of SkyPro Shoes in the Middle East

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

MPGShipyard docks into the Middle East

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

The Distant neighbors — EU, Middle East, North Africa and the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

The Barcelona Euro-Mediterranean Conference (1995) was intended to be a launching pad" for creating a new, innovative relationship between the EU-Fifteen and a selected set of non-member Middle Eastern and North African countries. The Barcelona Process was to become the European Union´s first attempt, of several, to create postmodern inclusive policy spheres as a way to deal with the post-enlargement problems of ´ins´ and outs´ in its immediate periphery. Nevertheless, in spite of geographical proximity, common problems and stated interest in creating amorphous EU borders in different sectors, the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership is today all but abandoned. This paper will examine some of the factors behind the current degeneration of the EU´s post-bipolar foreign policy strategy in the Mediterranean, by exploring the dialectic between the Union´s desire to expand its geopolitical, economic and cultural boundaries and the need to secure its territorial area (from migration, proliferation, social instability etc.). In the final part of the paper some suggestions for how to revive the relationship across the Mare Nostrum will be forwarded.

Similar patterns of local barn owl adaptation in the Middle East and Europe with respect to melanic coloration

The maintenance of phenotypic variation is a central question in evolutionary biology. A commonly suggested mechanism is that of local adaptation, whereby different phenotypes are adapted to alternative environmental conditions. A recent study in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) has shown that natural selection maintains a strong clinal variation in reddish pheomelanin-based coloration. Studies in the region where phenotypic variation in this owl is the highest in Europe have further demonstrated that dark-reddish and pale-reddish owls exploit open and wooded habitats, predate voles and wood mice, and are long-tailed and short-tailed, respectively. However, it remains unclear as to whether these traits evolved as a consequence of allopatric evolution of dark colour in northern Europe and white colour in southern Europe, during which owls could have also evolved different morphologies and foraging behaviour. This scenario implies that covariation between coloration and foraging behaviour could be a specificity of the European continent, which is not found in other worldwide-distributed populations. To investigate this issue we studied a barn owl population in the Middle East. Our results show that, as in Central Europe, dark-reddish female owls breed more often in the open landscape than their pale-reddish female conspecifics, their offspring are fed with more voles than Muridae, and they are longer-winged and longer-tailed. These findings indicate that in the barn owl the association in females between pheomelanin-based coloration and foraging behaviour and morphology is not restricted to the European continent but may well evolve in sympatry in many barn owl populations worldwide.

The Middle East in the American quest for world order : ideas of power, economics, and social development in United States foreign policy, 1953-1961

Doctoral dissertation, University of Tampere