Projection Par La Microsimulation de La Population Active Cap-Vert (2000-2025)

À l‟aide des microdonnées du recensement de 2000 et des données administratives sur l‟éducation et en s‟appuyant sur : 1) les scénarios concernant l‟évolution démographique, d‟éducation et d‟activité économique et 2) un modèle de microsimulation, on a projeté pour la période 2000 à 2025, certaines caractéristiques et comportements démographiques et socio-économiques de la population du Cap-Vert, notamment ceux liés à l‟évolution du statut d‟activité. Selon le scénario le plus plausible, à l‟horizon 2025, le pays se trouvera à l‟étape avancée de la seconde phase de sa transition démographique. Sa population continuerait de croître en raison de sa structure par âge relativement jeune. Bien que le solde migratoire tende à être nul et que la mortalité tende à se stabiliser (près de 5 à 7 décès pour 1 000 habitants par an), cette croissance sera à un rythme moins rapide (d‟environ 1,8 % par an) que celui de la décennie 1990-2000, et ce, malgré le déclin de la fécondité. De 2000 à 2025, le pays pourrait connaître également une augmentation des personnes âgées de 15 à 24 ans, variant de 26 % à 29 % selon les scénarios envisagés, soit ceux et celles qui entreront sur le marché du travail au cours de la période. Le nombre de ces jeunes n‟ayant pas obtenu un diplôme d‟études secondaire, en 2025, pourrait augmenter, selon les scénarios envisagés, variant de 30 % à 44 % de plus qu‟en 2000. Le nombre de personnes de ce groupe d‟âge ayant obtenu un diplôme d‟études secondaires ou plus, le pays pourrait voir leur nombre à décupler de 11 fois à 13 fois à la à l‟horizon 2025.

Are tax subsidies for private medical insurance self-financing? Evidence from a microsimulation model for outpatient and inpatient episodes

This paper analyses whether or not tax subsidies to private medicalinsurance are self-financing by means of a structural approach. Weconstruct a simulation routine based on a microeconometric discretechoice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changeson the utilisation of outpatient and inpatient health care services. Wesimulate the 1999 Spanish tax reform that abolished the tax deductionfor expenditures on private health insurance using a representativesample of the Catalan population. Prior to this reform, foregone taxrevenue arising from deductions after the purchase of private insuranceamounted to 69.2 M. per year. In contrast, the elimination of thesubsidies to private policies is estimated to generate an extra costfor the public sector of about 8.9 M. per year.

Application d'un modèle de microsimulation avec agents partiellement rationnels : le report du fardeau des taxes sur la masse salariale.

Rapport de recherche

A Microsimulation of the Impact of Tax Reforms on Child Poverty: the Case of Italy. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 29/February 2014

Microsimulation models have been used in order to find efficient counteractive instruments to poverty. The objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of fiscal policy on poverty, insisting on child poverty rates. Empirical analysis suggests that in fighting poverty, a mix of policies need to be in place, fiscal reforms increasing tax allowances such as child benefit granted to parents with dependent children, are not sufficient to reduce child poverty.

Bayesian precalibration of a large stochastic microsimulation model

Calibration of stochastic traffic microsimulation models is a challenging task. This paper proposes a fast iterative probabilistic precalibration framework and demonstrates how it can be successfully applied to a real-world traffic simulation model of a section of the M40 motorway and its surrounding area in the U.K. The efficiency of the method stems from the use of emulators of the stochastic microsimulator, which provides fast surrogates of the traffic model. The use of emulators minimizes the number of microsimulator runs required, and the emulators' probabilistic construction allows for the consideration of the extra uncertainty introduced by the approximation. It is shown that automatic precalibration of this real-world microsimulator, using turn-count observational data, is possible, considering all parameters at once, and that this precalibrated microsimulator improves on the fit to observations compared with the traditional expertly tuned microsimulation. © 2000-2011 IEEE.

Examination of Inequalities in Hungary by Microsimulation in Consistency with Macro Data

Effective decision making uses various databases including both micro and macro level datasets. In many cases it is a big challenge to ensure the consistency of the two levels. Different types of problems can occur and several methods can be used to solve them. The paper concentrates on the input alignment of the households’ income for microsimulation, which means refers to improving the elements of a micro data survey (EU-SILC) by using macro data from administrative sources. We use a combined micro-macro model called ECONS-TAX for this improvement. We also produced model projections until 2015 which is important because the official EU-SILC micro database will only be available in Hungary in the summer of 2017. The paper presents our estimations about the dynamics of income elements and the changes in income inequalities. Results show that the aligned data provides a different level of income inequality, but does not affect the direction of change from year to year. However, when we analyzed policy change, the use of aligned data caused larger differences both in income levels and in their dynamics.

Análise prospetiva de modelos de transporte e usos do solo

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Vias de Comunicação e Transportes