Methods of Telecommunication Technology Forecasting

This master's thesis coversthe concepts of knowledge discovery, data mining and technology forecasting methods in telecommunications. It covers the various aspects of knowledge discoveryin data bases and discusses in detail the methods of data mining and technologyforecasting methods that are used in telecommunications. Main concern in the overall process of this thesis is to emphasize the methods that are being used in technology forecasting for telecommunications and data mining. It tries to answer to some extent to the question of do forecasts create a future? It also describes few difficulties that arise in technology forecasting. This thesis was done as part of my master's studies in Lappeenranta University of Technology.

Wireless e-Business Applications - Methods for Forecasting the Demand of Wireless Services and Technologies

Tämä tutkimus oli osa sähköistä liiketoimintaa ja langattomia sovelluksia tutkivaa projektia ja tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää ennustamisen rooli päätöksenteko- ja suunnitteluprosessissa ja määrittää parhaiten soveltuvat ja useimmin käytetyt teknologian ennustusmenetelmät. Ennustusmenetelmiä tarkasteltiin erityisesti uuden teknologian ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisen näkökulmasta. Tutkimus perustui teknologista ennustamista, pitkän aikavälin suunnittelua ja innovaatioprosesseja käsittelevän kirjallisuuden analysointiin. Materiaalin perusteella kuvataan teknologian ennustamista informaation hankkimisvälineenä organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosessin apuna. Työssä arvioidaan myös seuraavat teknologisen ennustamisen menetelmät: trendianalyysi-, Delfoi-, cross-impact analyysi-, morfologinen analyysi- ja skenaario analyysimenetelmä. Työ tuo esille jokaisen ennustusmenetelmä ominaispiirteet, rajoitukset ja sovellusmahdollisuudet. Käyttäen esiteltyjä menetelmiä, saadaan kerättyä hyödyllistä informaatiota tulevaisuuden näkymistä, joita sitten voidaan käyttää hyväksi organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosesseissa.

The out-of-sample performance of stochastic methods in forecasting age-specific mortality rates /

"July 2008."

Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

Influence Of Forecasting, Planning And Controlling On The Performance Of Small And Medium Enterprises

Production Planning and Control (PPC) systems have grown and changed because of the developments in planning tools and models as well as the use of computers and information systems in this area. Though so much is available in research journals, practice of PPC is lagging behind and does not use much from published research. The practices of PPC in SMEs lag behind because of many reasons, which need to be explored This research work deals with the effect of identified variables such as forecasting, planning and control methods adopted, demographics of the key person, standardization practices followed, effect of training, learning and IT usage on firm performance. A model and framework has been developed based on literature. Empirical testing of the model has been done after collecting data using a questionnaire schedule administered among the selected respondents from Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in India. Final data included 382 responses. Hypotheses linking SME performance with the use of forecasting, planning and controlling were formed and tested. Exploratory factor analysis was used for data reduction and for identifying the factor structure. High and low performing firms were classified using a Logistic Regression model. A confirmatory factor analysis was used to study the structural relationship between firm performance and dependent variables.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Replications of forecasting research

We have examined the frequency of replications published in the two leading forecasting journals, the International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) and the Journal of Forecasting (JoF). Replications in the IJF and JoF between 1996 and 2008 comprised 8.4% of the empirical papers. Various other areas of management science have values ranging from 2.2% in the Journal of Marketing Research to 18.1% in the American Economic Review. We also found that 35.3% of the replications in forecasting journals provided full support for the findings of the initial study, 45.1% provided partial support, and 19.6% provided no support. Given the importance of replications, we recommend various steps to encourage replications, such as requiring a full disclosure of the methods and data used for all published papers, and inviting researchers to replicate specific important papers.

Influence of Forecasting, Planning and Controlling on the performance of Small and Medium Enterprises

Production Planning and Control (PPC) systems have grown and changed because of the developments in planning tools and models as well as the use of computers and information systems in this area. Though so much is available in research journals, practice of PPC is lagging behind and does not use much from published research. The practices of PPC in SMEs lag behind because of many reasons, which need to be explored. This research work deals with the effect of identified variables such as forecasting, planning and control methods adopted, demographics of the key person, standardization practices followed, effect of training, learning and IT usage on firm performance. A model and framework has been developed based on literature. Empirical testing of the model has been done after collecting data using a questionnaire schedule administered among the selected respondents from Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in India. Final data included 382 responses. Hypotheses linking SME performance with the use of forecasting, planning and controlling were formed and tested. Exploratory factor analysis was used for data reduction and for identifying the factor structure. High and low performing firms were classified using a Logistic Regression model. A confirmatory factor analysis was used to study the structural relationship between firm performance and dependent variables.

Evaluation Of The Effect Of Different Methods Of Microabrasion And Polishing On Surface Roughness Of Dental Enamel.

The microabrasion technique of enamel consists of selectively abrading the discolored areas or causing superficial structural changes in a selective way. In microabrasion technique, abrasive products associated with acids are used, and the evaluation of enamel roughness after this treatment, as well as surface polishing, is necessary. This in-vitro study evaluated the enamel roughness after microabrasion, followed by different polishing techniques. Roughness analyses were performed before microabrasion (L1), after microabrasion (L2), and after polishing (L3).Thus, 60 bovine incisive teeth divided into two groups were selected (n=30): G1- 37% phosphoric acid (37%) (Dentsply) and pumice; G2- hydrochloric acid (6.6%) associated with silicon carbide (Opalustre - Ultradent). Thereafter, the groups were divided into three sub-groups (n=10), according to the system of polishing: A - Fine and superfine granulation aluminum oxide discs (SofLex 3M); B - Diamond Paste (FGM) associated with felt discs (FGM); C - Silicone tips (Enhance - Dentsply). A PROC MIXED procedure was applied after data exploratory analysis, as well as the Tukey-Kramer test (5%). No statistical differences were found between G1 and G2 groups. L2 differed statistically from L1 and showed superior amounts of roughness. Differences in the amounts of post-polishing roughness for specific groups (1A, 2B, and 1C) arose, which demonstrated less roughness in L3 and differed statistically from L2 in the polishing system. All products increased enamel roughness, and the effectiveness of the polishing systems was dependent upon the abrasive used.

Histopathological evaluation of different methods of experimental induction of periapical periodontitis

This study evaluated histopathologically different methods of experimental induction of periapical periodontitis. The radiographic and microbiological evaluations have been performed in a previous investigation. Fifty-seven root canals from dogs' teeth were assigned to 4 groups. In GI (n=14) and GII (n=14), the root canals were exposed to oral environment for 180 days; in GIII (n=14) and GIV (n=15) the root canals were exposed for 7 days and then the access cavities were restored and remained sealed for 53 days. The root apices of GI and GIII were perforated, whilst those of GII and GIV remained intact. After induction of periapical periodontitis, the dogs were euthanized. Serial sections were obtained and stained with hematoxylin and eosin. Data of the histopathological evaluation were submitted to Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests at 5% significance level. The inflammatory periapical reaction and resorption of mineralized tissues were less intense in GII than in the other groups (p<0.05). There was no histopathological difference among the experimentally induced periapical lesions in the teeth with coronal sealing. On the other hand, when coronal sealing was not performed, greater intensity of induced periapical periodontitis was observed in the teeth with apical perforation.

Methods of imagetic information representation

The aim of this paper is to highlight some of the methods of imagetic information representation, reviewing the literature of the area and proposing a model of methodology adapted to Brazilian museums. An elaboration of a methodology of imagetic information representation is developed based on Brazilian characteristics of information treatment in order to adapt it to museums. Finally, spreadsheets that show this methodology are presented.

Prevalence, magnitude, and methods of rapid weight loss among judo competitors

ARTIOLI, G. G., B. GUALANO, E. FRANCHINI, F. B. SCAGLIUSI, M. TAKESIAN, M. FUCHS, and A. H. LANCHA. Prevalence, Magnitude, and Methods of Rapid Weight Loss among Judo Competitors. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc., Vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 436-442, 2010. Purpose: To identify the prevalence, magnitude, and methods of rapid weight loss among judo competitors. Methods: Athletes (607 males and 215 females; age = 19.3 +/- 5.3 yr, weight = 70 +/- 7.5 kg, height = 170.6 +/- 9.8 cm) completed a previously validated questionnaire developed to evaluate rapid weight loss in judo athletes, which provides a score. The higher the score obtained, the more aggressive the weight loss behaviors. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and frequency analyses. Mean scores obtained in the questionnaire were used to compare specific groups of athletes using, when appropriate, Mann-Whitney U-test or general linear model one-way ANOVA followed by Tamhane post hoc test. Results: Eighty-six percent of athletes reported that have already lost weight to compete. When heavyweights are excluded, this percentage rises to 89%. Most athletes reported reductions of up to 5% of body weight (mean +/- SD: 2.5 +/- 2.3%). The most weight ever lost was 2%-5%, whereas a great part of athletes reported reductions of 5%-10% (mean +/- SD: 6 +/- 4%). The number of reductions underwent in a season was 3 +/- 5. The reductions usually occurred within 7 +/- 7 d. Athletes began cutting weight at 12.6 +/- 6.1 yr. No significant differences were found in the score obtained by male versus female athletes as well as by athletes from different weight classes. Elite athletes scored significantly higher in the questionnaire than nonelite. Athletes who began cutting weight earlier also scored higher than those who began later. Conclusions: Rapid weight loss is highly prevalent in judo competitors. The level of aggressiveness in weight management behaviors seems to not be influenced by the gender or by the weight class, but it seems to be influenced by competitive level and by the age at which athletes began cutting weight.

Methods of quantification of training load in exercise performed at maximal lactate steady state

The aim of the present study was to compare and correlate training impulse (TRIMP) estimates proposed by Banister (TRIMP(Banister)), Stagno (TRIMP(Stagno)) and Manzi (TRIMP(Manzi)). The subjects were submitted to an incremental test on cycle ergometer with heart rate and blood lactate concentration measurements. In the second occasion, they performed 30 min. of exercise at the intensity corresponding to maximal lactate steady state, and TRIMP(Banister), TRIMP(Stagno) and TRIMP(Manzi) were calculated. The mean values of TRIMP(Banister) (56.5 +/- 8.2 u.a.) and TRIMP(Stagno) (51.2 +/- 12.4 u.a.) were not different (P > 0.05) and were highly correlated (r = 0.90). Besides this, they presented a good agreement level, which means low bias and relatively narrow limits of agreement. On the other hand, despite highly correlated (r = 0.93), TRIMP(Stagno) and TRIMP(Manzi) (73.4 +/- 17.6 u.a.) were different (P < 0.05), with low agreement level. The TRIMP(Banister) e TRIMP(Manzi) estimates were not different (P = 0.06) and were highly correlated (r = 0.82), but showed low agreement level. Thus, we concluded that the investigated TRIMP methods are not equivalent. In practical terms, it seems prudent monitor the training process assuming only one of the estimates.

Methods of Fourier optics in digital holographic microscopy

In this paper, processing methods of Fourier optics implemented in a digital holographic microscopy system are presented. The proposed methodology is based on the possibility of the digital holography in carrying out the whole reconstruction of the recorded wave front and consequently, the determination of the phase and intensity distribution in any arbitrary plane located between the object and the recording plane. In this way, in digital holographic microscopy the field produced by the objective lens can be reconstructed along its propagation, allowing the reconstruction of the back focal plane of the lens, so that the complex amplitudes of the Fraunhofer diffraction, or equivalently the Fourier transform, of the light distribution across the object can be known. The manipulation of Fourier transform plane makes possible the design of digital methods of optical processing and image analysis. The proposed method has a great practical utility and represents a powerful tool in image analysis and data processing. The theoretical aspects of the method are presented, and its validity has been demonstrated using computer generated holograms and images simulations of microscopic objects. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.