Predictive vegetation mapping in the Mediterranean context: Considerations and methodological issues

The need to map vegetation communities over large areas for nature conservation and to predict the impact of environmental change on vegetation distributions, has stimulated the development of techniques for predictive vegetation mapping. Predictive vegetation studies start with the development of a model relating vegetation units and mapped physical data, followed by the application of that model to a geographic database and over a wide range of spatial scales. This field is particularly important for identifying sites for rare and endangered species and locations of high biodiversity such as many areas of the Mediterranean Basin. The potential of the approach is illustrated with a mapping exercise in the alti-meditterranean zone of Lefka Ori in Crete. The study established the nature of the relationship between vegetation communities and physical data including altitude, slope and geomorphology. In this way the knowledge of community distribution was improved enabling a GIS-based model capable of predicting community distribution to be constructed. The paper describes the development of the spatial model and the methodological problems of predictive mapping for monitoring Mediterranean ecosystems. The paper concludes with a discussion of the role of predictive vegetation mapping and other spatial techniques, such as fuzzy mapping and geostatistics, for improving our understanding of the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and for practical management in a region that is under increasing pressure from human impact.

Explaining the Long-Term Trend in Violent Crime: A Heuristic Scheme and Some Methodological Considerations

There has been a discontinuous but fairly persistent long-term decline in homicide rates in core European countries since about 1500. Since the 1950s, however, we observe an upward trend in violent crime not only in Europe but in almost all of the economically advanced nations that combine democratic political structures with free-market economies. The paper presents an explanatory scheme designed to account for both, the long decline and its apparent reversal. The theoretical model draws heavily upon ideas taken from the sociological work of Emile Durkheim and Norbert Elias—with some modifications and extensions. It seeks to integrate sociological and historical perspectives and to give due weight to both, structural and developmental forces. A key hypothesis is that the pacifying effects of the erosion of traditional collectivism can only be maintained to the extent by which “cooperative individualism” dominates over against the forces of “disintegrative individualism.” Some suggestions are made concerning the selection of appropriate indicators and the handling of methodological problems related to causal attribution.

The effectiveness of designated driver programs

Designated driver programs aim to reduce alcohol related crashes by encouraging and facilitating a safe means of transport for those who have been drinking and by influencing attitudes and knowledge. This review discusses the use and effectiveness of designated driver programs in preventing drink driving and ultimately reducing alcohol related road trauma. The limitations of studies examining designated driver programs and recommendations for further research are also discussed. The available evidence suggests that while designated driver campaigns can successfully increase the awareness and use of designated drivers, it is less clear whether these programs lead to a reduction in drink driving and/or alcohol related crashes. Differences in the way that designated driver programs have historically been implemented may account for the inconsistent evidence for their effectiveness in reducing drink driving. There are also a variety of methodological problems relating to the evaluation of designated driver programs which need to be addressed by future research.

Psychological treatment dropout among pathological gamblers

Premature dropout from treatments for pathological gambling is potentially of significant importance, if it occurs before substantial progress has been made in addressing the problem. A systematic review of current research on dropout from psychological treatments for pathological gambling identified 12 studies from five countries. Dropout ranged from 14% to 50%, with a median of dropout 26%. Overall, 31% of the participants dropped out of treatment. Few studies distinguish between dropouts at different stages of participation. The evidence on specific variables that predict dropout is limited or inconsistent, and is characterised by a lack of a coherent, gambling-specific model and by methodological problems. Two studies that attempted to apply motivational and compliance-enhancing techniques were found. Both showed promising effects on reduction of dropout and improvement of short-term impact of treatment, but inconsistent results on longer-term outcomes were obtained. The review highlighted a need for more rigorous investigation of the extent of dropout and of variables associated with dropout from pathological gambling treatment programs. Further research on interventions to enhance retention and reduce dropout from psychological treatment is also required.

Ethical issues in research on adolescent depression and suicidal behaviour

Argues that the codes of ethical conduct of the Australian Psychological Society and the American Psychological Association imply that researchers of adolescent depression and suicidal behavior must plan to intervene to assess risk where a participant in a study indicates an intention to commit suicide. Participants in research of this kind need to be advised of this possibility in advance. The obligation to intervene, and to advise of the possibility of intervention, poses practical and methodological problems for research in this area but does not, it is argued, absolve the researcher of the primary responsibility to contribute to the welfare of the research participant. This obligation exists only when there is indication of harm but not, for instance, in the case of depression without suicidal intent.

A systematic review of naturalistic interventions in refugee populations

Naturalistic interventions with refugee populations examine outcomes following mental health interventions in existing refugee service organisations. The current review aimed to examine outcomes of naturalistic interventions and quality of the naturalistic intervention literature in refugee populations with the view to highlight the strengths and limitations of naturalistic intervention studies. Database search was conducted using the search terms ‘refugee’, ‘asylum seeker’, ‘treatment’, ‘therapy’ and ‘intervention. No date limitations were applied, but searches were limited to articles written in English. Seven studies were identified that assessed the outcome of naturalistic interventions on adult refugees or asylum seekers in a country of resettlement using quantitative outcome measures. Results showed significant variation in the outcomes of naturalistic intervention studies, with a trend towards showing decreased symptomatology at post-intervention. However, conclusions are limited by methodological problems of the studies reviewed, particularly poor documentation of intervention methods and lack of control in the design of naturalistic intervention studies. Further examination of outcomes following naturalistic interventions is needed with studies which focus on increasing the rigour of the outcome assessment process.

Shadow boxing with an imaginary enemy : a response to "Law and Order Blues"

In our rejoinder to Don Weatherburn's paper,"Law and Order Blues", we do not take issue with his advocacy of the need to take crime seriously and to foster a more rational approach to the problems it poses. Where differences do emerge is (1) with his claim that he is willing to do so whilst we (in our different ways) are not; and (2) on the question of what this involves. Of particular concern is the way in which his argument proceeds by a combination of simple misrepresentation of the positions it seeks to disparage, and silence concerning issues of real substance where intellectual debate and exchange would be welcome and useful. Our paper challenges, in turn, the misrepresentation of Indermaur's analysis of trends in violent crime, the misrepresentation of Hogg and Brown's Rethinking Law and Order, the misrepresentation of the findings of some of the research into the effectiveness of punitive policies and the silence on sexual assault in "Law and Order Blues". We suggest that his silence on sexual assault reflects a more widespread unwillingness to acknowledge the methodological problems that arise in the measurement of crime because such problems severely limit the extent to which confident assertions can be made about prevalence and trends.

Shadow boxing with an imaginary enemy : a response to “law and order blues”

In our rejoinder to Don Weatherburn's paper, “Law and Order Blues”, we do not take issue with his advocacy of the need to take crime seriously and to foster a more rational approach to the problems it poses. Where differences do emerge is (1) with his claim that he is willing to do so whilst we (in our different ways) are not; and (2) on the question of what this involves. Of particular concern is the way in which his argument proceeds by a combination of simple misrepresentation of the positions it seeks to disparage, and silence concerning issues of real substance where intellectual debate and exchange would be welcome and useful. Our paper challenges, in turn, the misrepresentation of Indermaur's analysis of trends in violent crime, the misrepresentation of Hogg and Brown's Rethinking Law and Order, the misrepresentation of the findings of some of the research into the effectiveness of punitive policies and the silence on sexual assault in “Law and Order Blues”. We suggest that his silence on sexual assault reflects a more widespread unwillingness to acknowledge the methodological problems that arise in the measurement of crime because such problems severely limit the extent to which confident assertions can be made about prevalence and trends.

Influência da posição sócio-econômica ao longo da vida nas desigualdades de cor/raça na ocorrência de miomas uterinos: Estudo Pró-Saúde

Os miomas uterinos (MU) são considerados os tumores mais comuns do sistema reprodutor feminino. Estudos norte-americanos demonstram que mulheres negras são mais acometidas pelos MU que as de outros grupos étnico-raciais. No entanto, as causas da desigualdade racial na ocorrência dos tumores permanecem desconhecidas e possíveis mecanismos são pouco explorados na literatura. Em outra direção, devido às características dos MU (crescimento lento e longo período de latência) parte considerável dos estudos epidemiológicos utilizam um delineamento transversal, o que pode gerar problemas metodológicos, como os relacionados à utilização da idade coletada transversalmente (posteriormente a ocorrência dos MU) como proxy da idade do surgimento dos tumores. Assim, este trabalho de tese foi dividido em três partes, como se segue. A primeira, com características descritivas, teve por objetivo estimar a ocorrência de MU autorelatados segundo categorias demográficas e sócio-econômicas na população de estudo (compôs o artigo 1). A segunda, com componente analítico, propôs-se a avaliar o papel da PSE ao longo da vida como mediadora do efeito da cor/raça na ocorrência de MU auto-relatados (compôs o artigo 2). A terceira, com caráter metodológico, teve por objetivo comparar medidas de associação, entre variáveis aferidas transversalmente, em análises que incluem a co-variável idade no momento da coleta de dados e análises que consideram a idade ao diagnóstico dos MU (compôs o artigo 3). Para tanto, foram analisados dados transversais da população feminina participante das duas etapas da linha de base do Estudo Pró-Saúde, referentes à história auto-relatada de diagnóstico médico de MU e ainda a características sócio-demográficas, da vida reprodutiva e de acesso a serviços de saúde. Os resultados evidenciaram o aumento de ocorrência de MU em mulheres de maior idade e com a cor da pele mais escura (artigo 1); que a PSE ao longo da vida não medeia as associações entre cor/raça e MU (artigo 2); e que apesar das diferenças de pequena magnitude, a idade referida no momento da coleta de dados parece ser menos indicada para fins de especificação dos modelos analíticos do que a idade ao diagnóstico dos MU(artigo 3).

Description of NRA tracking studies: tracking techniques and fish counter technology

The study began on the 7th January 1991 and was completed in June 1991. Two reports have been produced. This report published as R&D Note 33 describes NRA tracking studies, tracking techniques and fish counter technology. The second report published as R&D Note 34 evaluates NRA tracking studies and recommends future research. The latter will be used solely for NRA management purposes. This report briefly outlines the programme of the NRA, placing the Fisheries programme in the context of the work of the NRA as a whole, and viewing the tracking work against the broader requirements of the NRA Fisheries research programme. Two techniques currently exist for studying the detailed timing and extent of movements of adult salmon: tracking of individually identifiable fish, and counting the numbers of fish moving past a fixed point in the river. Further details of these techniques and their development are given in Sections 2 and 3. Section 4 summarises and assesses completed and current NRA tracking Studies. Complete project descriptions for the studies are contained in Appendix A. Section 5 discusses the scientific content of these studies in relation to similar work carried out elsewhere in the UK. Section 6 details the future development of tracking techniques. Tracking work on migratory salmonids has tended to concentrate largely upon the movements of adult salmon. Much of this report will therefore be concerned with salmon tracking studies. NRA studies involving sea trout are referred to where appropriate. The methodological problems of sea trout tracking studies are summarised in Section 2.1.3.