Dynamik und Klimatologie von diabatischen Rossby-Wellen

Der Wintersturm Lothar zog am 26. Dezember 1999 ��ber Europa und richtete in Frankreich, in Deutschland, in der Schweiz und in ��sterreich ungew��hnlich hohe Sch��den an. Lothar entstand aus einer diabatischen Rossby Welle (DRW) und erreichte erst wenige Stunden vor dem europ��ischen Kontinent Orkanst��rke. DRWs weisen ein interessantes atmosph��risches Str��mungsmuster auf. Sie bestehen aus einer positiven PV-Anomalie in der unteren Troposph��re, die sich in einer Region mit starkem meridionalen Temperaturgradient befindet. Die positive PV-Anomalie l��st eine zyklonale Str��mung aus, dadurch wird ��stlich der PV-Anomalie warme Luft aus dem S��den herantransportiert. W��hrend des Aufstieg der warmen Luft finden diabatische Prozesse statt, die zur Bildung einer neuen positiven PV-Anomalie in der unteren Troposph��re (PVA) f��hren. DRWs entstehen unabh��ngig von PV-Anomalien an der Tropopause. Falls sie jedoch mit ihnen in Wechselwirkung treten, kann - wie im Falle von Lothar - eine explosive Zyklogenese daraus resultieren. Im ersten Teil wird die Dynamik einer DRW am Beispiel des Wintersturms Lothar untersucht. Es wird insbesondere auf das Potential einer DRW zur explosiven Zyklogenese eingegangen. Im zweiten Teil wird das Aufretreten von DRWs in ECMWF-Vorhersagen untersucht. Es werden Unterschiede zwischen DRWs und anderen PV-Anomalien in der unteren Troposph��re hervorgehoben. Die Dynamik von DRWs wird mit Hilfe eines ECMWF-"Ensemble Prediction System" (EPS) des Wintersturms Lothar untersucht. Die 50 Modelll��ufe des EPS starten am 24. Dezember 1999 um 12 UTC und reichen bis zum 26. Dezember 1999 um 12 UTC. Nur 16 der 50 Modelll��ufe sagen einen ��hnlich starken Sturm wie Lothar vorher. 10 Modelll��ufen sagen am 26. Dezember keine Zyklone mehr vorher. Die Auspr��gung der baroklinen Zone, in der sich die DRW befindet, ist ausschlaggebend f��r die Intensit��t der DRW. Weitere wichtige Parameter sind der Feuchtegehalt der unteren Troposph��re und der latente W��rmefluss ��ber dem Ozean. Diejenigen DRWs, die sich zu am 25. Dezember um 12 UTC n��her als 400 km am Tropopausenjet befinden, entwickeln sich zu einer starken Zyklone. Alle anderen l��sen sich auf oder bleiben schwache Zyklonen. Es ist schwierig, diabatische Prozesse in Wettervorhersagemodellen abzubilden, dementsprechend treten Schwierigkeiten bei der Vorhersage von PVAs auf. In den operationellen ECMWF-Vorhersagen von Juni 2004 bis Mai 2005 werden mit Hilfe eines Tracking- Algorithmus PVAs im Nordpazifik und Nordatlantik bestimmt und in f��nf Kategorien eingeteilt. Die f��nf Kategorien unterscheiden sich in ihrer H��ufigkeit, ihrer Zugbahn und ihrer Gestalt. Im Nordpazifik entstehen doppelt so viele PVAs wie im Nordatlantik. Durchschnittlich werden im Winter weniger PVAs gefunden als im Sommer. Die Baroklinit��t und die Geschwindigkeit des Tropopausenjets ist in der N��he von DRWs besonders hoch. Verglichen mit anderen PVAs weisen DRWs eine ��hnliche Verteilung des reduzierten Bodendrucks auf. DRWs k��nnen in etwa gleich gut vorhergesagt werden wie andere PVAs.

Behavioural, population, and genetic processes affecting metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly

In my thesis I have been studying the effects of population fragmentation and extinction-recolonization dynamics on genetic and evolutionary processes in the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia). By conducting crosses within and among newly-colonized populations and using several fitness measures, I found a strong decrease in fitness following colonization by a few related individuals, and a strong negative relationship between parental relatedness and offspring fitness. Thereafter, I was interested in determining the number and relatedness of individuals colonizing new populations, which I did using a set of microsatellites I had previously developed for this species. Additionally, I am interested in the evolution of key life-history traits. By following the lifetime reproductive success of males emerging at different times in a semi-natural setup, I demonstrated that protandry is adaptive in males, and I was able to rule out, for M. cinxia, alternative incidental hypotheses evoked to explain the evolution of protandry in insects. Finally, in work I did together with Prof. Hanna Kokko, I am proposing bet-hedging as a new mechanism that could explain the evolution of polyandry in M. cinxia.

Dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary in summer

Field measurements of salinity, wind and river discharge and numerical simulations of hydrodynamics from 1978 to 1984 are used to investigate the dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China during summer. The studies have shown that there are four major horizontal buoyant plume types in summer: Offshore Bulge Spreading (Type I), West Alongshore Spreading (Type II), East Offshore Spreading (Type III), and Symmetrical Alongshore Spreading (Type IV). River mouth conditions, winds and ambient coastal currents have inter-influences to the transport processes of the buoyant plume. It is found that all of the four types are surface-advected plumes by analysing the vertical characteristic of the plumes, and the monthly variations of the river discharge affect the plume size dominantly. The correlation coefficient between the PRE plume size and the river discharge reaches 0.85 during the high river discharge season. A wind strength index has been introduced to examine the wind effect. It is confirmed that winds play a significant role in forming the plume morphology. The alongshore wind stress and the coastal currents determine the alongshore plume spreading. The impact of the ambient currents such as Dongsha Current and South China Sea (SCS) Warm Current on the plume off the shelf has also assessed. The present study has demonstrated that both the river discharge and wind conditions affect the plume evolution.

Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean���atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean���atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Ni��o-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged.

Large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: an analysis using the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model is used to investigate the large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). It is shown that the 4-day wave is substantially amplified in southern polar winter in the presence of instabilities arising from strong vertical shears in the MLT zonal mean zonal winds brought about by parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag. A weaker 4-day wave in northern polar winter is attributed to the weaker wind shears that result from weaker parameterized wave drag. The 2-day wave also exhibits a strong dependence on zonal wind shears, in agreement with previous modeling studies. In the equatorial upper mesosphere, the migrating diurnal tide provides most of the resolved westward wave forcing, which varies semiannually in conjunction with the tide itself; resolved forcing by eastward traveling disturbances is dominated by smaller scales. Nonmigrating tides and other planetary-scale waves play only a minor role in the zonal mean zonal momentum budget in the tropics at these heights. Resolved waves are shown to play a significant role in the zonal mean meridional momentum budget in the MLT, impacting significantly on gradient wind balance. Balance fails at low latitudes as a result of a strong Reynolds stress associated with the migrating diurnal tide, an effect which is most pronounced at equinox when the tide is strongest. Resolved and parameterized waves account for most of the imbalance at higher latitudes in summer. This results in the gradient wind underestimating the actual eastward wind reversal by up to 40%.

The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ���downward��� control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright �� 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Towards an understanding of the information dynamics of the handover process in aged care settings: A prerequisite for the safe and effective use of ICT

Background Poor clinical handover has been associated with inaccurate clinical assessment and diagnosis, delays in diagnosis and test ordering, medication errors and decreased patient satisfaction in the acute care setting. Research on the handover process in the residential aged care sector is very limited. Purpose The aims of this study were to: (i) Develop an in-depth understanding of the handover process in aged care by mapping all the key activities and their information dynamics, (ii) Identify gaps in information exchange in the handover process and analyze implications for resident safety, (iii) Develop practical recommendations on how information communication technology (ICT) can improve the process and resident safety. Methods The study was undertaken at a large metropolitan facility in NSW with more than 300 residents and a staff including 55 registered nurses (RNs) and 146 assistants in nursing (AINs). A total of 3 focus groups, 12 interviews and 3 observation sessions were conducted over a period from July to October 2010. Process mapping was undertaken by translating the qualitative data via a five-category code book that was developed prior to the analysis. Results Three major sub-processes were identified and mapped. The three major stages are Handover process (HOP) I ���Information gathering by RN���, HOP II ���Preparation of preliminary handover sheet��� and HOP III ���Execution of handover meeting���. Inefficient processes were identified in relation to the handover including duplication of information, utilization of multiple communication modes and information sources, and lack of standardization. Conclusion By providing a robust process model of handover this study has made two critical contributions to research in aged care: (i) a means to identify important, possibly suboptimal practices; and (ii) valuable evidence to plan and improve ICT implementation in residential aged care. The mapping of this process enabled analysis of gaps in information flow and potential impacts on resident safety. In addition it offers the basis for further studies into a process that, despite its importance for securing resident safety and continuity of care, lacks research.

Dynamics of the Indian-Ocean oxygen minimum zones

In the Indian Ocean, mid-depth oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The lower part of the Arabian-Sea OMZ (ASOMZ; below 400 m) intensifies northward across the basin; in contrast, its upper part (above 400 m) is located in the central/eastern basin, well east of the most productive regions along the western boundary. The Bay-of-Bengal OMZ (BBOMZ), although strong, is weaker than the ASOMZ. To investigate the processes that maintain the Indian-Ocean OMZs, we obtain a suite of solutions to a coupled biological/physical model. Its physical component is a variable-density, 6 1/2-layer model, in which each layer corresponds to a distinct dynamical regime or water-mass type. Its biological component has six compartments: nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, two size classes of detritus, and oxygen. Because the model grid is non-eddy resolving (0.5 degrees), the biological model also includes a parameterization of enhanced mixing based on the eddy kinetic energy derived from satellite observations. To explore further the impact of local processes on OMZs, we also obtain analytic solutions to a one-dimensional, simplified version of the biological model. Our control run is able to simulate basic features of the oxygen, nutrient, and phytoplankton fields throughout the Indian Ocean. The model OMZs result from a balance, or lack thereof, between a sink of oxygen by remineralization and subsurface oxygen sources due primarily to northward spreading of oxygenated water from the Southern Hemisphere, with a contribution from Persian-Gulf water in the northern Arabian Sea. The northward intensification of the lower ASOMZ results mostly from horizontal mixing since advection is weak in its depth range. The eastward shift of the upper ASOMZ is due primarily to enhanced advection and vertical eddy mixing in the western Arabian Sea, which spread oxygenated waters both horizontally and vertically. Advection carries small detritus from the western boundary into the central/eastern Arabian Sea, where it provides an additional source of remineralization that drives the ASOMZ to suboxic levels. The model BBOMZ is weaker than the ASOMZ because the Bay lacks a remote source of detritus from the western boundary. Although detritus has a prominent annual cycle, the model OMZs do not because there is not enough time for significant remineralization to occur.

Dynamics of rotationally resolved multiphoton ionization processes in molecules

<p>This dissertation presents the results of studies of several rotationally- resolved resonance enhanced multiphoton ionization (REMPI) processes in some simple molecular systems. The objective of these studies is to quantitatively identify the underlying dynamics of this highly state-specific process which utilizes the narrow bandwidth radiation of a laser to ionize a molecule by first preparing an excited state via multiphoton absorption and subsequently ionizing that state before it can decay. Coupled with high-resolution photoelectron spectroscopy, REMPI is clearly an important probe of molecular excited states and their photoioniza tion dynamics. </p> <p>A key feature of our studies is that they are carried out using accurate Hartree-Fock orbitals to describe the photoelectron orbitals of the molecular ions. The use of such photoelectron orbitals is important in rotationally-resolved studies where the angular momentum coupling in the photoelectron orbital plays a significant role in the photoionization dynamics. In these studies the Hartree-Fock molecular molecular photoelectron orbitals are obtained by numerical solution of a Lippmann-Schwinger integral equation. </p> <p>Studies reported here include investigations of (i) ionic rotational branching ratios and their energy dependence for REMPI via the A^2��^+(3s��) and D^2��^+(3p��)states of NO, (ii) the influence of angular momentum constraints on branching ratios at low photoelectron energies for REMPI via low-J levels of the resonant intermediate state, (iii) the strong dependence of photoelectron angular distributions on final ionic rotational state and on the alignment in REMPI of the A^2��^+ state of NO, (iv) vibrational state dependence of ionic rotational branching ratios arising from rapid orbital evolution in resonant states (E'^2��^+(3p��) of CH), (v) the influence of rovibronic interactions on the rotational branching ratios seen in REMPI via the D^2��^+(3p��) state of NO, and (vi) effects of laser intensity on the photoionization dynamics of REMPI.</p>

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

<p>This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.</p> <p>We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.</p> <p>Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.</p> <p>Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.</p>

An evaluation of the accuracy of models for the determination of the weighted mean temperature of the atmosphere

The estimates of the zenith wet delay resulting from the analysis of data from space techniques, such as GPS and VLBI, have a strong potential in climate modeling and weather forecast applications. In order to be useful to meteorology, these estimates have to be converted to precipitable water vapor, a process that requires the knowledge of the weighted mean temperature of the atmosphere, which varies both in space and time. In recent years, several models have been proposed to predict this quantity. Using a database of mean temperature values obtained by ray-tracing radiosonde profiles of more than 100 stations covering the globe, and about 2.5 year���s worth of data, we have analyzed several of these models. Based on data from the European region, we have concluded that the models provide identical levels of precision, but different levels of accuracy. Our results indicate that regionally-optimized models do not provide superior performance compared to the global models.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.