A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

Viability and Management of an Endangered Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) Metapopulation in the Jura Mountains, Western Switzerland

The populations of Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), the largest European grouse, have seriously declined during the last century over most of their distribution in western and central Europe. In the Jura mountains, the relict population is now isolated and critically endangered (about 500 breeding adults). We developed a simulation software (TetrasPool) that accounts for age and spatial structure as well as stochastic processes, to perform a viability analysis and explore management scenarios for this population, capitalizing on a 24 years-long series of field data. Simulations predict a marked decline and a significant extinction risk over the next century, largely due to environmental and demographic stochasticity (average values of life-history parameters would otherwise allow stability). Variances among scenarios mainly stem from uncertainties about the shape and intensity of density dependence. Uncertainty analyses suggest to focus conservation efforts on enhancing, not only adult survival (as often advocated for long-lived species), but also recruitment. The juvenile stage matters when local populations undergo extinctions, because it ensures connectivity and recolonization. Besides limiting human perturbations, a silvicultural strategy aimed at opening forest structure should improve the quality and surface of available patches, independent of their size and localization. Such measures are to be taken urgently, if the population is to be saved.

Testing the effects of genetic crossing distance on embryo survival within a metapopulation of brown trout (Salmo trutta)

Predicting progeny performance from parental genetic divergence can potentially enhance the efficiency of supportive breeding programmes and facilitate risk assessment. Yet, experimental testing of the effects of breeding distance on offspring performance remains rare, especially in wild populations of vertebrates. Recent studies have demonstrated that embryos of salmonid fish are sensitive indicators of additive genetic variance for viability traits. We therefore used gametes of wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from five genetically distinct populations of a river catchment in Switzerland, and used a full factorial design to produce over 2,000 embryos in 100 different crosses with varying genetic distances (FST range 0.005-0.035). Customized egg capsules allowed recording the survival of individual embryos until hatching under natural field conditions. Our breeding design enabled us to evaluate the role of the environment, of genetic and nongenetic parental contributions, and of interactions between these factors, on embryo viability. We found that embryo survival was strongly affected by maternal environmental (i.e. non-genetic) effects and by the microenvironment, i.e. by the location within the gravel. However, embryo survival was not predicted by population divergence, parental allelic dissimilarity, or heterozygosity, neither in the field nor under laboratory conditions. Our findings suggest that the genetic effects of inter-population hybridization within a genetically differentiated meta-population can be minor in comparison to environmental effects.

Effects of colonization asymmetries on metapopulation persistence.

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity.

The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence

Classical metapopulation theory assumes a static landscape. However, empirical evidence indicates many metapopulations are driven by habitat succession and disturbance. We develop a stochastic metapopulation model, incorporating habitat disturbance and recovery, coupled with patch colonization and extinction, to investigate the effect of habitat dynamics on persistence. We discover that habitat dynamics play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics. The mean number of suitable habitat patches is not adequate for characterizing the dynamics of the metapopulation. For a fixed mean number of suitable patches, we discover that the details of how disturbance affects patches and how patches recover influences metapopulation dynamics in a fundamental way. Moreover, metapopulation persistence is dependent not only oil the average lifetime of a patch, but also on the variance in patch lifetime and the synchrony in patch dynamics that results from disturbance. Finally, there is an interaction between the habitat and metapopulation dynamics, for instance declining metapopulations react differently to habitat dynamics than expanding metapopulations. We close, emphasizing the importance of using performance measures appropriate to stochastic systems when evaluating their behavior, such as the probability distribution of the state of the. metapopulation, conditional on it being extant (i.e., the quasistationary distribution).

Solid Lipid Nanoparticles For Hydrophilic Biotech Drugs: Optimization And Cell Viability Studies (caco-2 & Hepg-2 Cell Lines).

Insulin was used as model protein to developed innovative Solid Lipid Nanoparticles (SLNs) for the delivery of hydrophilic biotech drugs, with potential use in medicinal chemistry. SLNs were prepared by double emulsion with the purpose of promoting stability and enhancing the protein bioavailability. Softisan(®)100 was selected as solid lipid matrix. The surfactants (Tween(®)80, Span(®)80 and Lipoid(®)S75) and insulin were chosen applying a 2(2) factorial design with triplicate of central point, evaluating the influence of dependents variables as polydispersity index (PI), mean particle size (z-AVE), zeta potential (ZP) and encapsulation efficiency (EE) by factorial design using the ANOVA test. Therefore, thermodynamic stability, polymorphism and matrix crystallinity were checked by Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Wide Angle X-ray Diffraction (WAXD), whereas the effect of toxicity of SLNs was check in HepG2 and Caco-2 cells. Results showed a mean particle size (z-AVE) width between 294.6 nm and 627.0 nm, a PI in the range of 0.425-0.750, ZP about -3 mV, and the EE between 38.39% and 81.20%. After tempering the bulk lipid (mimicking the end process of production), the lipid showed amorphous characteristics, with a melting point of ca. 30 °C. The toxicity of SLNs was evaluated in two distinct cell lines (HEPG-2 and Caco-2), showing to be dependent on the concentration of particles in HEPG-2 cells, while no toxicity in was reported in Caco-2 cells. SLNs were stable for 24 h in in vitro human serum albumin (HSA) solution. The resulting SLNs fabricated by double emulsion may provide a promising approach for administration of protein therapeutics and antigens.

Inhibitory Effects Of A Cured Antibacterial Bonding System On Viability And Metabolic Activity Of Oral Bacteria.

To evaluate the antimicrobial efficacy of Clearfil SE Protect (CP) and Clearfil SE Bond (CB) after curing and rinsed against five individual oral microorganisms as well as a mixture of bacterial culture prepared from the selected test organisms. Bacterial suspensions were prepared from single species of Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus sobrinus, Streptococcus gordonii, Actinomyces viscosus and Lactobacillus lactis, as well as mixed bacterial suspensions from these organisms. Dentin bonding system discs (6 mm×2 mm) were prepared, cured, washed and placed on the bacterial suspension of single species or multispecies bacteria for 15, 30 and 60 min. MTT, Live/Dead bacterial viability (antibacterial effect), and XTT (metabolic activity) assays were used to test the two dentin system's antibacterial effect. All assays were done in triplicates and each experiment repeated at least three times. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Scheffe's f-test (5%). Greater than 40% bacteria killing was seen within 15 min, and the killing progressed with increasing time of incubation with CP discs. However, a longer (60 min) period of incubation was required by CP to achieve similar antimicrobial effect against mixed bacterial suspension. CB had no significant effect on the viability or metabolic activity of the test microorganisms when compared to the control bacterial culture. CP was significantly effective in reducing the viability and metabolic activity of the test organisms. The results demonstrated the antimicrobial efficacy of CP both on single and multispecies bacterial culture. CP may be beneficial in reducing bacterial infections in cavity preparations in clinical dentistry.

Exercise Increases Pancreatic β-cell Viability In A Model Of Type 1 Diabetes Through Il-6 Signaling.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is provoked by an autoimmune assault against pancreatic β cells. Exercise training enhances β-cell mass in T1D. Here, we investigated how exercise signals β cells in T1D condition. For this, we used several approaches. Wild-type and IL-6 knockout (KO) C57BL/6 mice were exercised. Afterward, islets from control and trained mice were exposed to inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β plus IFN-γ). Islets from control mice and β-cell lines (INS-1E and MIN6) were incubated with serum from control or trained mice or medium obtained from 5-aminoimidazole-4 carboxamide1-β-d-ribofuranoside (AICAR)-treated C2C12 skeletal muscle cells. Subsequently, islets and β cells were exposed to IL-1β plus IFN-γ. Proteins were assessed by immunoblotting, apoptosis was determined by DNA-binding dye propidium iodide fluorescence, and NO(•) was estimated by nitrite. Exercise reduced 25, 75, and 50% of the IL-1β plus IFN-γ-induced iNOS, nitrite, and cleaved caspase-3 content, respectively, in pancreatic islets. Serum from trained mice and medium from AICAR-treated C2C12 cells reduced β-cell death, induced by IL-1β plus IFN-γ treatment, in 15 and 38%, respectively. This effect was lost in samples treated with IL-6 inhibitor or with serum from exercised IL-6 KO mice. In conclusion, muscle contraction signals β-cell survival in T1D through IL-6.-Paula, F. M. M., Leite, N. C., Vanzela, E. C., Kurauti, M. A., Freitas-Dias, R., Carneiro, E. M., Boschero, A. C., and Zoppi, C. C. Exercise increases pancreatic β-cell viability in a model of type 1 diabetes through IL-6 signaling.

Scaphoid Fracture Nonunion: Correlation Of Radiographic Imaging, Proximal Fragment Histologic Viability Evaluation, And Estimation Of Viability At Surgery: Diagnosis Of Scaphoid Pseudarthrosis.

The purpose of this study was to correlate the pre-operative imaging, vascularity of the proximal pole, and histology of the proximal pole bone of established scaphoid fracture non-union. This was a prospective non-controlled experimental study. Patients were evaluated pre-operatively for necrosis of the proximal scaphoid fragment by radiography, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Vascular status of the proximal scaphoid was determined intra-operatively, demonstrating the presence or absence of puncate bone bleeding. Samples were harvested from the proximal scaphoid fragment and sent for pathological examination. We determined the association between the imaging and intra-operative examination and histological findings. We evaluated 19 male patients diagnosed with scaphoid nonunion. CT evaluation showed no correlation to scaphoid proximal fragment necrosis. MRI showed marked low signal intensity on T1-weighted images that confirmed the histological diagnosis of necrosis in the proximal scaphoid fragment in all patients. Intra-operative assessment showed that 90% of bones had absence of intra-operative puncate bone bleeding, which was confirmed necrosis by microscopic examination. In scaphoid nonunion MRI images with marked low signal intensity on T1-weighted images and the absence of intra-operative puncate bone bleeding are strong indicatives of osteonecrosis of the proximal fragment.

Viability of using enamel and dentin from bovine origin as a substitute for human counterparts in an intraoral erosion model

This study ascertained whether under dental erosion models that closely mimics the real-life situation enamel and root dentin from bovine origin would be reliable substitutes for human counterparts. Through a 2x2 crossover design, in a first trial, 14 volunteers wore a palatal device containing slabs of bovine and human enamel. Half of the participants ingested (4x daily, for 10 days) orange juice first, crossing over to mineral water, while the remainder received the reverse sequence. In a second trial, volunteers wore devices with slabs of bovine and human root dentin. Except for the duration of each intraoral phase, which lasted 2 rather 10 days, the experiment with root dentin run exactly as for enamel. Dental substrates were analyzed for surface microhardness. Two-way ANOVAs (α=0.05) indicated no difference between the microhardness values recorded for human and bovine enamel (p=0.1350), but bovine root dentin had lower microhardness compared to its human counterpart (p=0.0432). While bovine enamel can reliably substitute its human counterpart in in situ dental erosion models, bovine root dentin does not seem to be a viable alternative to the corresponding human tissue.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) expression in human and murine pancreatic beta-cells affects cell viability and insulin homeostasis

Background: Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) is widely recognized as an essential element in the triggering of innate immunity, binding pathogen-associated molecules such as Lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and in initiating a cascade of pro-inflammatory events. Evidence for TLR4 expression in non-immune cells, including pancreatic beta-cells, has been shown, but, the functional role of TLR4 in the physiology of human pancreatic beta-cells is still to be clearly established. We investigated whether TLR4 is present in beta-cells purified from freshly isolated human islets and confirmed the results using MIN6 mouse insulinoma cells, by analyzing the effects of TLR4 expression on cell viability and insulin homeostasis. Results: CD11b positive macrophages were practically absent from isolated human islets obtained from nondiabetic brain-dead donors, and TLR4 mRNA and cell surface expression were restricted to beta-cells. A significant loss of cell viability was observed in these beta-cells indicating a possible relationship with TLR4 expression. Monitoring gene expression in beta-cells exposed for 48h to the prototypical TLR4 ligand LPS showed a concentration-dependent increase in TLR4 and CD14 transcripts and decreased insulin content and secretion. TLR4-positive MIN6 cells were also LPS-responsive, increasing TLR4 and CD14 mRNA levels and decreasing cell viability and insulin content. Conclusions: Taken together, our data indicate a novel function for TLR4 as a molecule capable of altering homeostasis of pancreatic beta-cells.

Behavior and viability of spontaneous oxidative stress-resistant Lactococcus lactis mutants in experimental fermented milk processing

Previously, we isolated two strains of spontaneous oxidative (SpOx2 and SpOx3) stress mutants of Lactococcus lactis subsp cremoris. Herein, we compared these mutants to a parental wild- type strain (J60011) and a commercial starter in experimental fermented milk production. Total solid contents of milk and fermentation temperature both affected the acidification profile of the spontaneous oxidative stress- resistant L. lactis mutants during fermented milk production. Fermentation times to pH 4.7 ranged from 6.40 h (J60011) to 9.36 h (SpOx2); V(max) values were inversely proportional to fermentation time. Bacterial counts increased to above 8.50 log(10) cfu/mL. The counts of viable SpOx3 mutants were higher than those of the parental wild strain in all treatments. All fermented milk products showed post-fermentation acidification after 24 h of storage at 4 degrees C; they remained stable after one week of storage.