Analysis of the Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone Numa from a numerical model simulation

I Medicane sono rari cicloni che si sviluppano sul Mar Mediterraneo e presentano caratteristiche dei cicloni tropicali, come la forma a spirale delle bande di nubi, un occhio privo di venti e nubi, venti intensi nella banda che circonda l’occhio e la presenza di un nucleo caldo. Nel presente lavoro, è stata compiuta un’analisi del Medicane Numa, verificatosi nel novembre del 2017, utilizzando gli output della simulazione del modello RAMS-ISAC. L’obiettivo di questa tesi è l’identificazione e la descrizione delle caratteristiche tropicali di Numa, focalizzandosi sulla descrizione dei diversi stadi di sviluppo del ciclone. Il sistema di bassa pressione è stato identificato utilizzando la pressione sul livello del mare, mentre l’anomalia termica e il vento orizzontale hanno permesso una descrizione della struttura del Medicane e del suo nucleo caldo. Un’illustrazione della struttura a spirale delle bande di nubi e dell’occhio è stata ottenuta con il grafico dei rapporti di mescolanza delle idrometeore di nubi e pioggia. Questi parametri hanno consentito di ricavare il diametro dell’occhio, pari a 75 km, mentre il diametro del Medicane è risultato 230 km. Numa ha registrato una velocità massima del vento in superficie di 20 m/s nella banda adiacente all’occhio del ciclone. Il diagramma di Hart dello spazio delle fasi del ciclone ha confermato la natura simil-tropicale di Numa e ne ha descritto l’evoluzione, identificando la transizione da sistema a caratteri tropicali a sistema ibrido. La traiettoria nello spazio delle fasi ha consentito l’identificazione delle sottofasi dell’evoluzione di Numa, confermate dai grafici dell’evoluzione temporale dei parametri menzionati in precedenza. L’analisi ha mostrato il ruolo cruciale della presenza di una struttura organizzata nel determinare l’intensità e la durata delle caratteristiche tropicali. Tutti i parametri hanno evidenziato la simmetria della struttura durante la persistente fase matura di Numa.

Thermal structure and dynamical modeling of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

In the present work, a detailed analysis of a Mediterranean TLC occurred in January 2014 has been conducted. The author is not aware of other studies regarding this particular event at the publication of this thesis. In order to outline the cyclone evolution, observational data, including weather-stations data, satellite data, radar data and photographic evidence, were collected at first. After having identified the cyclone path and its general features, the GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH NWP models, developed at ISAC-CNR (Bologna), were used to simulate the phenomenon. Particular attention was paid on the Mediterranean phase as well as on the Atlantic phase, since the cyclone showed a well defined precursor up to 3 days before the minimum formation in the Alboran Sea. The Mediterranean phase has been studied using different combinations of GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH models, so as to evaluate the best model chain to simulate this kind of phenomena. The BOLAM and MOLOCH models showed the best performance, by adjusting the path erroneously deviated in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ECMWF operational models. The analysis of the cyclone thermal phase shown the presence of a deep-warm core structure in many cases, thus confirming the tropical-like nature of the system. Furthermore, the results showed high sensitivity to initial conditions in the whole lifetime of the cyclone, while the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modification leads only to small changes in the Adriatic phase. The Atlantic phase has been studied using GLOBO and BOLAM model and with the aid of the same methodology already developed. After tracing the precursor, in the form of a low-pressure system, from the American East Coast to Spain, the thermal phase analysis was conducted. The parameters obtained showed evidence of a deep-cold core asymmetric structure during the whole Atlantic phase, while the first contact with the Mediterranean Sea caused a sudden transition to a shallow-warm core structure. The examination of Potential Vorticity (PV) 3-dimensional structure revealed the presence of a PV streamer that individually formed over Greenland and eventually interacted with the low-pressure system over the Spanish coast, favouring the first phase of the cyclone baroclinic intensification. Finally, the development of an automated system that tracks and studies the thermal phase of Mediterranean cyclones has been encouraged. This could lead to the forecast of potential tropical transition, against with a minimum computational investment.

Implementação de ferramentas Lean numa empresa de componentes para calçado

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Analisi modellistica di un intenso ciclone di tipo tropicale nel Mediterraneo (7-8 novembre 2014): predicibilità, caratteristiche termodinamiche e confronto con osservazioni da satellite

Il lavoro di tesi riguarda lo studio dettagliato di un ciclone di tipo tropicale (tropical like cyclone, TLC) verificatosi nel Canale di Sicilia nel novembre 2014, realizzato attraverso un'analisi modellistica effettuata con i modelli BOLAM e MOLOCH (sviluppati presso il CNR-ISAC di Bologna) e il confronto con osservazioni. Nel primo capitolo è fornita una descrizione generale dei cicloni tropicali e dei TLC, indicando come la formazione di questi ultimi sia spesso il risultato dell'evoluzione di cicloni extratropicali baroclini nel Mediterraneo; sono identificate le aree geografiche con i periodi dell'anno maggiormente soggetti all'influenza di questi fenomeni, riportando un elenco dei principali TLC verificatisi nel Mediterraneo negli utlimi tre decenni e lo stato dell'arte sullo studio di questi eventi. Nel secondo capitolo sono descritte le modalità di implementazione delle simulazioni effettuate per il caso di studio e presentati i principali prodotti dell'analisi modellistica e osservazioni da satellite. Il terzo capitolo si apre con la descrizione della situazione sinottica e l'analisi osservativa con immagini Meteosat e rilevazioni radar che hanno permesso di ricostruire la traiettoria osservata del TLC. In seguito, viene dapprima fornito l'elenco completo delle simulazioni numeriche, quindi sono presentati alcuni dei più importanti risultati ottenuti, dai quali emerge che la previsione della traiettoria e intensità del TLC differisce notevolmente dalle osservazioni. Tenendo conto della bassa predicibilità che ha caratterizzato l'evento, nel quarto capitolo è descritto il metodo usato per ricostruire in maniera ottimale la traiettoria, utilizzando spezzoni da varie simulazioni, che ha permesso un confronto più realistico con i dati osservati e un'analisi dei processi fisici. Nel quinto capitolo sono riportati i principali risultati di alcuni test mirati a valutare l'impatto di aspetti legati all'implementazione delle simulazioni e ad altre forzanti fisiche.

Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

Mechanisms governing the eyewall replacement cycle in numerical simulations of tropical cyclones

Eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is frequently observed during the evolution of intensifying Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Although intensely studied in recent years, the underlying mechanisms of ERC are still poorly understood, and the forecast of ERC remains a great challenge. To advance our understanding of ERC and provide insights in improvement of numerical forecast of ERC, a series of numerical simulations is performed to investigate ERCs in TC-like vortices on a f-plane. The simulated ERCs possess key features similar to those observed in real TCs including the formation of a secondary tangential wind maximum associated with the outer eyewall. The Sawyer-Eliassen equation and tangential momentum budget analyses are performed to diagnose the mechanisms underlying the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) and ERC. Our diagnoses reveal crucial roles of outer rainband heating in governing the formation and development of the secondary tangential wind maximum and demonstrate that the outer rainband convection must reach a critical strength relative to the eyewall before SEF and the subsequent ERC can occur. A positive feedback among low-level convection, acceleration of tangential winds in the boundary layer, and surface evaporation that leads to the development of ERC and a mechanism for the demise of inner eyewall that involves interaction between the transverse circulations induced by eyewall and outer rainband convection are proposed. The tangential momentum budget indicates that the net tendency of tangential wind is a small residual resultant from a large cancellation between tendencies induced by the resolved and sub-grid scale (SGS) processes. The large SGS contribution to the tangential wind budget explains different characteristics of ERC shown in previous numerical studies and poses a great challenge for a timely correct forecast of ERC. The sensitivity experiments show that ERCs are strongly subjected to model physics, vortex radial structure and background wind. The impact of model physics on ERC can be well understood with the interaction among eyewall/outer rainband heating, radilal inflow in the boundary layer, surface layer turbulent processes, and shallow convection in the moat. However, further investigations are needed to fully understand the exhibited sensitivities of ERC to vortex radial structure and background wind.

Mechanisms Governing the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is frequently observed during the evolution of intensifying Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Although intensely studied in recent years, the underlying mechanisms of ERC are still poorly understood, and the forecast of ERC remains a great challenge. To advance our understanding of ERC and provide insights in improvement of numerical forecast of ERC, a series of numerical simulations is performed to investigate ERCs in TC-like vortices on a f-plane. The simulated ERCs possess key features similar to those observed in real TCs including the formation of a secondary tangential wind maximum associated with the outer eyewall. The Sawyer-Eliassen equation and tangential momentum budget analyses are performed to diagnose the mechanisms underlying the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) and ERC. Our diagnoses reveal crucial roles of outer rainband heating in governing the formation and development of the secondary tangential wind maximum and demonstrate that the outer rainband convection must reach a critical strength relative to the eyewall before SEF and the subsequent ERC can occur. A positive feedback among low-level convection, acceleration of tangential winds in the boundary layer, and surface evaporation that leads to the development of ERC and a mechanism for the demise of inner eyewall that involves interaction between the transverse circulations induced by eyewall and outer rainband convection are proposed. The tangential momentum budget indicates that the net tendency of tangential wind is a small residual resultant from a large cancellation between tendencies induced by the resolved and sub-grid scale (SGS) processes. The large SGS contribution to the tangential wind budget explains different characteristics of ERC shown in previous numerical studies and poses a great challenge for a timely correct forecast of ERC. The sensitivity experiments show that ERCs are strongly subjected to model physics, vortex radial structure and background wind. The impact of model physics on ERC can be well understood with the interaction among eyewall/outer rainband heating, radilal inflow in the boundary layer, surface layer turbulent processes, and shallow convection in the moat. However, further investigations are needed to fully understand the exhibited sensitivities of ERC to vortex radial structure and background wind.

Hydrometeor and latent heat profiles of tropical cyclones Conson, Ivan and Catarina using PR/TRMM data

ABSTRACT Microphysical and thermodynamical features of two tropical systems, namely Hurricane Ivan and Typhoon Conson, and one sub-tropical, Catarina, have been analyzed based on space-born radar PR measurements available on the TRMM satellite. The procedure to classify the reflectivity profiles followed the Heymsfield et al (2000) and Steiner et al (1995) methodologies. The water and ice content have been calculated using a relationship obtained with data of the surface SPOL radar and PR in Rondonia State in Brazil. The diabatic heating rate due to latent heat release has been estimated using the methodology developed by Tao et al (1990). A more detailed analysis has been performed for Hurricane Catarina, the first of its kind in South Atlantic. High water content mean value has been found in Conson and Ivan at low levels and close to their centers. Results indicate that hurricane Catarina was shallower than the other two systems, with less water and the water was concentrated closer to its center. The mean ice content in Catarina was about 0.05 g kg-1 while in Conson it was 0.06 g kg-1 and in Ivan 0.08 g kg-1. Conson and Ivan had water content up to 0.3 g kg-1 above the 0ºC layer, while Catarina had less than 0.15 g kg-1. The latent heat released by Catarina showed to be very similar to the other two systems, except in the regions closer to the center.

Presence of tropical spastic paraparesis/human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1-associated myelopathy (TSP/HAM)-like among HIV-1-infected patients

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and human T-cell lymphotropic virus types 1 and 2 (HTLV-1 and -2) are retroviruses that share similar routes of transmission and some individuals may have a dual infection. These co-infected subjects may be at increased risk for tropical spastic paraparesis/HTLV-1-associated myelopathy (TSP/HAM)-like. To study the prevalence of tropical spastic paraparesis/HTLV-1-associated myelopathy (TSP/HAM) among coinfected HIV-1/HTLV-1 subjects. Since July 1997, our group has been following a cohort to study the interaction of HTLV with HIV and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV), as well as HTLV-1-only infected asymptomatic carriers or those already presenting with TSP/HAM. During these 9 years, 296 HTLV-1-infected individuals were identified from a total of 538 patients who were referred to our clinic at the Institute of Infectious Diseases ""Emilio Ribas,"" in Sao Paulo, Brazil. All subjects were evaluated by two neurologists, blinded to the HTLV status. TSP/HAM diagnosis was based on Kagoshima diagnostic criteria. Results: A total of 38 HIV-1/HTLV-1 co-infected subjects were identified in this cohort: Twenty-six had already been diagnosed with AIDS and 12 remained asymptomatic. Six of 38 co-infected subjects (18%) were diagnosed as having TSP/HAM and also AIDS, and for 5 of them TSP/HAM was their first illness. One additional incident case was diagnosed after 2 years of follow-up. No modifications on HIV-1 viral load was seen. In contrast, the co-infected with TSP/HAM-like group showed higher HTLV-1 proviral load (505 +/- 380 vs. 97 +/- 149 copies/10(4) PBMC, P= 0.012) than asymptomatic co-infected subjects, respectively. The incidence of myelopathy among HIV-1/HTLV-1 co-infected subjects is probably higher than among patients infected only with HTLV-1, and related to a higher HTLV-1 proviral load. Thus, HTLV-1/2 screening should be done for all HIV-1-infected patients in areas where HTLV-1 infection is endemic.

Tropical cyclones as a critical phenomenon

It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm occurs. This means that no characteristic scale exists for the energy of tropical cyclones, except for the finite-size effects induced by the boundaries of the basins. This has important implications for the physics of tropical cyclones. We discuss up to what point tropical cyclones are related to critical phenomena (in the same way as earthquakes, rainfall, etc.), providing a consistent picture of the energy balance in the system. Moreover, this perspective allows one to visualize more clearly the effects of global warming on tropical-cyclone occurrence.

Influence of different tropical fruits on biological and behavioral aspects of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Tephritidae)

Influence of different tropical fruits on biological and behavioral aspects of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Tephritidae). Studies on Ceratitis capitata, a world fruit pest, can aid the implementation of control programs by determining the plants with higher vulnerability to attacks and plants able to sustain their population in areas of fly distribution. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the influence of eight tropical fruits on the following biological and behavioral parameters of C. capitata: emergence percentage, life cycle duration, adult size, egg production, longevity, fecundity, egg viability, and oviposition acceptance. The fruits tested were: acerola (Malpighia glabra L.), cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.), star fruit (Averrhoa carambola L.), guava (Psidium guajava L.), soursop (Annona muricata L.), yellow mombin (Spondias mombin L.), Malay apple (Syzygium malaccense L.), and umbu (Spondias tuberosa L.). The biological parameters were obtained by rearing the recently hatched larvae on each of the fruit kinds. Acceptance of fruits for oviposition experiment was assessed using no-choice tests, as couples were exposed to two pieces of the same fruit. The best performances were obtained with guava, soursop, and star fruit. Larvae reared on cashew and acerola fruits had regular performances. No adults emerged from yellow mombin, Malay apple, or umbu. Fruit species did not affect adult longevity, female fecundity, or egg viability. Guava, soursop, and acerola were preferred for oviposition, followed by star fruit, Malay apple, cashew, and yellow mombin. Oviposition did not occur on umbu. In general, fruits with better larval development were also more accepted for oviposition.

Circulation of a Meaban-like virus in yellow-legged gulls and seabird ticks in the western Mediterranean Basin

In recent years, a number of zoonotic flaviviruses have emerged worldwide, and wild birds serve as their major reservoirs. Epidemiological surveys of bird populations at various geographical scales can clarify key aspects of the eco-epidemiology of these viruses. In this study, we aimed at exploring the presence of flaviviruses in the western Mediterranean by sampling breeding populations of the yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis), a widely distributed, anthropophilic, and abundant seabird species. For 3 years, we sampled eggs from 19 breeding colonies in Spain, France, Algeria, and Tunisia. First, ELISAs were used to determine if the eggs contained antibodies against flaviviruses. Second, neutralization assays were used to identify the specific flaviviruses present. Finally, for colonies in which ELISA-positive eggs had been found, chick serum samples and potential vectors, culicid mosquitoes and soft ticks (Ornithodoros maritimus), were collected and analyzed using serology and PCR, respectively. The prevalence of flavivirus-specific antibodies in eggs was highly spatially heterogeneous. In northeastern Spain, on the Medes Islands and in the nearby village of L'Escala, 56% of eggs had antibodies against the flavivirus envelope protein, but were negative for neutralizing antibodies against three common flaviviruses: West Nile, Usutu, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses. Furthermore, little evidence of past flavivirus exposure was obtained for the other colonies. A subset of the Ornithodoros ticks from Medes screened for flaviviral RNA tested positive for a virus whose NS5 gene was 95% similar to that of Meaban virus, a flavivirus previously isolated from ticks of Larus argentatus in western France. All ELISA-positive samples subsequently tested positive for Meaban virus neutralizing antibodies. This study shows that gulls in the western Mediterranean Basin are exposed to a tick-borne Meaban-like virus, which underscores the need of exploring the spatial and temporal distribution of this flavivirus as well as its potential pathogenicity for animals and humans.

Present day distribution and historical biogeography of the tribu Ophidiini (Ophidiformes, Ophidiidae, Ophidiinae) from the East Tropical Atlantic (CLOFETA area) and North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean (CLOFNAM area)

The present day geographic distribution of the Ophidiini tribe (Ophidiidae, Ophidiinae) in the Clofnam (North- Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean) and Clofeta (Eastern Tropical Atlantic) areas is revised in this paper. Results show that Parohidion vassali is not a Mediterranean endemic species, and the presence of Ophidion barbatum in the Atlantic is confirmed. Moreover, the paper tries to analyse the historical events which could have caused the present situation of two genera, Ophidion and Parophidion, both in the Atlantic and in the Mediterranean. Although first fossil records of Ophidion and Parophidion date from the Pliocene, when considering all the historical events occurred from the existence of the Tethys Sea to the opening of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean formation, a much earlier origin of these genera seems to be more likely. The situation of Ophidion barbatum and O. rochei in the Mediterranean and Black Sea is also discussed

The genetic basis of color-related local adaptation in a ring-like colonization around the Mediterranean.

Uncovering the genetic basis of phenotypic variation and the population history under which it established is key to understand the trajectories along which local adaptation evolves. Here, we investigated the genetic basis and evolutionary history of a clinal plumage color polymorphism in European barn owls (Tyto alba). Our results suggest that barn owls colonized the Western Palearctic in a ring-like manner around the Mediterranean and meet in secondary contact in Greece. Rufous coloration appears to be linked to a recently evolved nonsynonymous-derived variant of the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) gene, which according to quantitative genetic analyses evolved under local adaptation during or following the colonization of Central Europe. Admixture patterns and linkage disequilibrium between the neutral genetic background and color found exclusively within the secondary contact zone suggest limited introgression at secondary contact. These results from a system reminiscent of ring species provide a striking example of how local adaptation can evolve from derived genetic variation.

STUDIES ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPOSPHERE AND LOWER STRATOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

In the present thesis, an attempt has been made to study the characteristics of troposphere and lower stratosphere during the passage of tropical cyclones from a tropical station in India using MST radar. MST radar is an excellent tool for studying various features of the atmosphere from ground to mesospheric heights, as it can be operated continuously with good time and altitude resolution. The major objectives are to identify the multiple layers of reflectivity observed in the atmosphere during cyclones, to study the troposphere characteristics during these cyclones and its dependence on cyclone position and intensity, to detect the waves present in the atmosphere, to study the transport of momentum fluxes and to understand stratosphere. The winds in the troposphere and lower stratosphere are greatly affected by the passage of cyclones; the presence of high reflectivity layers below the tropopause suggests the passage of severe weather systems etc. are some of the major findings of the study. The study can be extended further to understand the circulation and dynamics of the atmosphere associated with the passage of tropical cyclones. The gravity wave generation and its characteristics during the passage of storms is another important aspect to be studied in detail.