Letter to Mr. Robert Nelles from John McClelland of Guelph

Letter to Mr. Robert Nelles from John McClelland of Guelph regarding Lot no.2 in the 8th concession of Garafraxa [rural township in Dufferin County, Ontario]. Mr. McClelland would like to buy the property, Dec. 28, 1848.

The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.

Classification—Content Regulation and Convergent Media

On 24 March 2011, Attorney-General Robert McClelland referred the National Classification Scheme to the ALRC and asked it to conduct widespread public consultation across the community and industry. The review considered issues including: existing Commonwealth, State and Territory classification laws the current classification categories contained in the Classification Act, Code and Guidelines the rapid pace of technological change the need to improve classification information available to the community the effect of media on children and the desirability of a strong content and distribution industry in Australia. During the inquiry, the ALRC conducted face-to-face consultations with stakeholders, hosted two online discussion forums, and commissioned pilot community and reference group forums into community attitudes to higher level media content. The ALRC published two consultation documents—an Issues Paper and a Discussion Paper—and invited submissions from the public. The Final Report was tabled in Parliament on 1 March 2012. Recommendations: The report makes 57 recommendations for reform. The net effect of the recommendations would be the establishment of a new National Classification Scheme that: applies consistent rules to content that are sufficiently flexible to be adaptive to technological change; places a regulatory focus on restricting access to adult content, helping to promote cyber-safety and protect children from inappropriate content across media platforms; retains the Classification Board as an independent classification decision maker with an essential role in setting benchmarks; promotes industry co-regulation, encouraging greater industry content classification, with government regulation more directly focused on content of higher community concern; provides for pragmatic regulatory oversight, to meet community expectations and safeguard community standards; reduces the overall regulatory burden on media content industries while ensuring that content obligations are focused on what Australians most expect to be classified; and harmonises classification laws across Australia, for the benefit of consumers and content providers.

Heavy Weather

Heavy Weather was a monumental sculptural work produced for the prestigious McClelland National Sculpture Survey in 2012. The work was a large cold-cast aluminium figure depicting the artist in athletic costume arching backwards across the top of massive boulder. The pose of the figure was derived from the ‘Fosbury flop’, the awkward backwards manoeuvre associated with high-jump event. The boulder was a portrait of a different kind - a remake of the Ian Fairweather memorial on Bribie Island but elongated to tower upwards. The work thus emphasised two contrasting impressions of movement – immense inertia and writhing agility. Heavy Weather sought to bring these two opposing forces together as a way of representing the tensions that shape our relationship with objects. In so doing, the work contributed to the artist’s ongoing exploration of sculpture, self-portraiture and the civic monument. The work was promoted nationally including the Art Guide and the Melbourne Review. It was also the subject of a article in the Australian Art Collector.

A quasi-maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of multivariate diffusions

A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.

Self excitation in equity indices

A "self-exciting" market is one in which the probability of observing a crash increases in response to the occurrence of a crash. It essentially describes cases where the initial crash serves to weaken the system to some extent, making subsequent crashes more likely. This thesis investigates if equity markets possess this property. A self-exciting extension of the well-known jump-based Bates (1996) model is used as the workhorse model for this thesis, and a particle-filtering algorithm is used to facilitate estimation by means of maximum likelihood. The estimation method is developed so that option prices are easily included in the dataset, leading to higher quality estimates. Equilibrium arguments are used to price the risks associated with the time-varying crash probability, and in turn to motivate a risk-neutral system for use in option pricing. The option pricing function for the model is obtained via the application of widely-used Fourier techniques. An application to S&P500 index returns and a panel of S&P500 index option prices reveals evidence of self excitation.