Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Method adjustment and equation set of maximum rainfall intensity, duration and frequency in the Mato Grosso do Sul State

Due to the lack of information concerning maximum rainfall equations for most locations in Mato Grosso do Sul State, the alternative for carrying out hydraulic work projects has been information from meteorological stations closest to the location in which the project is carried out. Alternative methods, such as 24 hours rain disaggregation method from rainfall data due to greater availability of stations and longer observations can work. Based on this approach, the objective of this study was to estimate maximum rainfall equations for Mato Grosso do Sul State by adjusting the 24 hours rain disaggregation method, depending on data obtained from rain gauge stations from Dourado and Campo Grande. For this purpose, data consisting of 105 rainfall stations were used, which are available in the ANA (Water Resources Management National Agency) database. Based on the results we concluded: the intense rainfall equations obtained by pluviogram analysis showed determination coefficient above 99%; and the performance of 24 hours rain disaggregation method was classified as excellent, based on relative average error WILMOTT concordance index (1982).

Adjuvant dibromodulcitol and BCNU chemotherapy in anaplastic astrocytoma: results of a randomised European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer phase III study (EORTC study 26882).

BACKGROUND: In a previous randomised EORTC study on adjuvant dibromodulcitol (DBD) and bichloroethylnitrosourea (BCNU) in adults with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and anaplastic astrocytoma (AA), a clinically significant trend towards a longer overall survival (OS) and a progression-free survival (PFS) was observed in the subgroup of AA. The aim of the present study was to test this adjuvant regimen in a larger number of AA patients. METHODS: Continuation of the previous phase III trial for newly diagnosed AA according to the local pathologist. Patients were randomised to either radiotherapy only or to radiotherapy in combination with BCNU on day 2 and weekly DBD, followed by adjuvant DBD and BCNU in cycles of six weeks for a maximum total treatment duration of one year. OS was the primary end-point. RESULTS: Patients (193 ) with newly diagnosed AA according to local pathological assessment were randomised to radiotherapy (RT) alone (n=99), or to RT plus DBD/BCNU (n=94); 12 patients were considered not eligible. At central pathology review, over half (53%) of the locally diagnosed AA cases could not be confirmed. On intent-to-treat analysis, no statistically significant differences in OS (p=0.111) and PFS (p=0.087) were observed, median OS after RT was only 23.9 months 95% confidence interval (CI), [18.4-34.0] after RT plus DBD/BCNU 27.3 months 95% CI [21.4-46.8]. CONCLUSION: No statistically significant improvement in survival was observed after BCNU/DBD adjuvant chemotherapy in AA patients. The trend towards improved survival is consistent with previous reports. Central pathology review of grade 3 tumours remains crucial.

Five-year outcome of catheter ablation of persistent atrial fibrillation using termination of atrial fibrillation as a procedural endpoint.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine 5-year efficacy of catheter ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) using AF termination as a procedural end point. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred fifty patients (57±10 years) underwent persistent AF ablation using a stepwise ablation approach (pulmonary vein isolation, electrogram-guided, and linear ablation) with the desired procedural end point being AF termination. Repeat ablation was performed for recurrent AF or atrial tachycardia. AF was terminated by ablation in 120 patients (80%). Arrhythmia-free survival rates after a single procedure were 35.3%±3.9%, 28.0%±3.7%, and 16.8%±3.2% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Arrhythmia-free survival rates after the last procedure (mean 2.1±1.0 procedures) were 89.7%±2.5%, 79.8%±3.4%, and 62.9%±4.5%, at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. During a median follow-up of 58 (interquartile range, 43-73) months after the last ablation procedure, 97 of 150 (64.7%) patients remained in sinus rhythm without antiarrhythmic drugs. Another 14 (9.3%) patients maintained sinus rhythm after reinitiation of antiarrhythmic drugs, and an additional 15 (10.0%) patients regressed to paroxysmal recurrences only. Failure to terminate AF during the index procedure (hazard ratio 3.831; 95% confidence interval, 2.070-7.143; P<0.001), left atrial diameter ≥50 mm (hazard ratio 2.083; 95% confidence interval, 1.078-4.016; P=0.03), continuous AF duration ≥18 months (hazard ratio 1.984; 95% confidence interval, 1.024-3.846; P<0.04), and structural heart disease (hazard ratio 1.874; 95% confidence interval, 1.037-3.388; P=0.04) predicted arrhythmia recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with persistent AF, an ablation strategy aiming at AF termination is associated with freedom from arrhythmia recurrence in the majority of patients over a 5-year follow-up period. Procedural AF nontermination and specific baseline factors predict long-term outcome after ablation.

The Effect of Two Speed Endurance Training Regimes on Performance of Soccer Players.

In order to better understand the specificity of training adaptations, we compared the effects of two different anaerobic training regimes on various types of soccer-related exercise performances. During the last 3 weeks of the competitive season, thirteen young male professional soccer players (age 18.5±1 yr, height 179.5±6.5 cm, body mass 74.3±6.5 kg) reduced the training volume by ~20% and replaced their habitual fitness conditioning work with either speed endurance production (SEP; n = 6) or speed endurance maintenance (SEM; n = 7) training, three times per wk. SEP training consisted of 6-8 reps of 20-s all-out running bouts followed by 2 min of passive recovery, whereas SEM training was characterized by 6-8 x 20-s all-out efforts interspersed with 40 s of passive recovery. SEP training reduced (p<0.01) the total time in a repeated sprint ability test (RSAt) by 2.5%. SEM training improved the 200-m sprint performance (from 26.59±0.70 to 26.02±0.62 s, p<0.01) and had a likely beneficial impact on the percentage decrement score of the RSA test (from 4.07±1.28 to 3.55±1.01%) but induced a very likely impairment in RSAt (from 83.81±2.37 to 84.65±2.27 s). The distance covered in the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery test level 2 was 10.1% (p<0.001) and 3.8% (p<0.05) higher after SEP and SEM training, respectively, with possibly greater improvements following SEP compared to SEM. No differences were observed in the 20- and 40-m sprint performances. In conclusion, these two training strategies target different determinants of soccer-related physical performance. SEP improved repeated sprint and high-intensity intermittent exercise performance, whereas SEM increased muscles' ability to maximize fatigue tolerance and maintain speed development during both repeated all-out and continuous short-duration maximal exercises. These results provide new insight into the precise nature of a stimulus necessary to improve specific types of athletic performance in trained young soccer players.

Custos de ajustamento e a dinâmica da estrutura de capital em empresas brasileiras

Diversos estudos de Finanças Corporativas consideram os custos associados aos ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas irrelevantes tanto na forma quanto em magnitude. Este estudo analisou empiricamente a influência dos custos de ajustamento na dinâmica dos ajustes da estrutura de capital de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período de 1999 a 2007. A alavancagem foi abordada sob três diferentes cenários, considerando a presença de custos fixos, custos proporcionais e por uma composição de custos fixos e proporcionais através de simulações utilizando um modelo reduzido da estrutura de capital. Em seguida a análise não paramétrica da amostra revelou que as empresas apresentam um comportamento dinâmico em suas decisões de financiamento para o ajuste da estruturas de capital, mas que não se revelou contínuo. A utilização de um modelo de duration mostrou-se adequado para mensurar o intervalo de tempo entre os ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas. Os resultados são extremamente relevantes e suportam a teoria de um comportamento de rebalanceamento dinâmico pelas empresas de suas estruturas de capital em torno de um intervalo ótimo. Entretanto os ajustes não ocorrem de forma imediata e a persistência de choques à estrutura de capital deve-se em sua maior parte aos custos associados aos ajustes do que a uma possível indiferença à estrutura de capital. . Este trabalho constitui-se como pioneiro no mercado brasileiro acerca dos custos de ajustamento da estrutura de capital e abre espaço para a discussão do comportamento ótimo em torno da estrutura de capital de empresas nacionais.

Limiar anaeróbio e velocidade crítica determinada com diferentes distâncias em nadadores de 10 a 15 anos: relações com a performance e a resposta do lactato sanguíneo em testes de endurance

O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar a velocidade crítica (VC) determinada através de diferentes distâncias com o limiar anaeróbio (LAn) e as velocidades máximas mantidas em testes de 20 (V20) e 30 (V30) minutos na natação, verificando se a idade cronológica em jovens nadadores interfere nessas relações. Participaram do estudo 31 nadadores (17 meninas e 14 meninos) divididos segundo a idade cronológica em dois grupos: 10 a 12 anos e 13 a 15 anos. O LAn foi determinado como sendo a velocidade correspondente a 4mM de lactato sanguíneo. A VC1 (25/50/100m), VC2 (100/200/400m) e a VC3 (50/100/200m) foram calculadas através do coeficiente angular da reta de regressão linear entre as distâncias e seus respectivos tempos. As V20 e V30 foram determinadas através de três a seis repetições, com coletas de sangue no 10º minuto e ao final do tiro. Para o grupo de 10 a 12 anos, a VC1 (m/s) (0,98 ± 0,17) e o LAn (0,97 ± 0,12) não foram diferentes entre si, sendo maiores do que a VC2 (0,92 ± 0,16), VC3 (0,89 ± 0,18), V20 (0,92 ± 0,11) e V30 (0,90 ± 0,11). Para o grupo de 13 a 15 anos, a VC1 (m/s)(1,11 ± 0,11) foi maior do que o LAn (1,02 ± 0,07), V20 (0,99 ± 0,09), V30 (0,97 ± 0,09), VC2 (0,98 ± 0,11) e VC3 (1,00 ± 0,11). Pode-se concluir que a distância utilizada na determinação da VC interfere no valor obtido, independente da idade cronológica. A VC determinada com distâncias entre 50 e 400m pode ser utilizada na avaliação da capacidade aeróbia de crianças e adolescentes, substituindo os testes contínuos máximos com durações próximas a 20 ou 30 minutos.

Otimização de planos de manutenções de componentes de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica centrados em confiabilidade

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Five-Year Outcome of Catheter Ablation of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Using Termination of Atrial Fibrillation as a Procedural Endpoint.

BACKGROUND -This study aimed to determine five-year efficacy of catheter ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (PsAF) using AF termination as a procedural endpoint. METHODS AND RESULTS -150 patients (57±10 years) underwent PsAF ablation using a stepwise ablation approach (pulmonary vein isolation, electrogram-guided and linear ablation) with the desired procedural endpoint being AF termination. Repeat ablation was performed for recurrent AF or atrial tachycardia (AT). AF was terminated by ablation in 120 patients (80%). Arrhythmia-free survival rates after a single procedure were 35.3±3.9%, 28.0±3.7%, and 16.8±3.2% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Arrhythmia-free survival rates after the last procedure (mean 2.1±1.0 procedures) were 89.7±2.5%, 79.8±3.4%, and 62.9±4.5%, at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. During a median follow-up of 58 (IQR 43-73) months following the last ablation procedure, 97 of 150 (64.7%) patients remained in sinus rhythm without antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs). Another 14 (9.3%) patients maintained sinus rhythm after re-initiation of AADs, and an additional 15 (10.0%) patients regressed to paroxysmal recurrences only. Failure to terminate AF during the index procedure (HR 3.831; 95%CI: 2.070-7.143; p<0.001), left atrial diameter ≥50mm (HR 2.083; 95%CI: 1.078-4.016; p=0.03), continuous AF duration ≥18 months (HR 1.984; 95%CI: 1.024-3.846; p<0.04) and structural heart disease (HR 1.874; 95% CI: 1.037-3.388; p=0.04) predicted arrhythmia recurrence. CONCLUSIONS -In patients with PsAF, an ablation strategy aiming at AF termination is associated with freedom from arrhythmia recurrence in the majority of patients over a 5-year follow up period.Procedural AF non-termination and specific baseline factors predict long-term outcome after ablation.

Prisão preventiva: direito à razoável duração e necessidade de prazo legal máximo

O direito à razoável duração do processo, inserido expressamente no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro a partir do advento da Emenda Constitucional 45/2004, já poderia ser inferido desde a incorporação da Convenção Americana de Direitos Humanos, bem como ser considerado um corolário da garantia do devido processo legal. Todo indivíduo tem o direito a um processo sem dilações indevidas, em especial aquele que se encontre submetido a uma prisão preventiva, medida cautelar pessoal de extrema gravosidade. Nesse contexto, exsurge o direito que o indivíduo preso preventivamente tem de que o seu processo seja julgado em um prazo razoável ou de que ele seja desencarcerado, caso preso além da necessidade fática contida no caso concreto. Entretanto, a interpretação da garantia não pode restar somente à livre vontade dos aplicadores do direito, sendo necessária uma regulamentação legal efetiva da duração da prisão preventiva, por meio de prazos concretos nos quais o sujeito deverá ser posto em liberdade, ante a desídia estatal. Incorporando experiências estrangeiras, deve o legislador pátrio adotar marcos temporais legais, em que a prisão preventiva deverá cessar, caso excessivamente prolongada. Muito embora no ano de 2011 tenha sido reformada a tutela das medidas cautelares pessoais no Código de Processo Penal, o legislador ordinário não aprovou a imposição de limites de duração da prisão preventiva, permanecendo ao livre arbítrio das autoridades judiciárias a interpretação da garantia em referência. Assim, o Projeto de Lei do Novo Código de Processo Penal, atualmente em trâmite no Congresso Nacional, ao prever limites máximos de duração da prisão preventiva, dá uma efetiva regulamentação à garantia da duração razoável do imputado preso, devendo ser, espera-se, mantido no eventual texto final aprovado.

Broadly tunable InGaAsP-InP strained multiquantum-well external cavity diode laser

In this letter, we demonstrate a broadly tunable InGaAsInP strained multiquantum-well external cavity diode laser, which operates in the spectral range of 14941667 nm. A maximum continuous-wave output power in excess of 81 mW and sidemode suppression ratio higher than 50 dB were achieved in the central part of the tuning range. Different pump current and temperature regimes are investigated. © 2006 IEEE.

High-power quantum-dot vertical-external-cavity surface-emitting laser exceeding 8 W

We report on a record-high output power from an optically pumped quantum-dot vertical-external-cavity surface-emitting laser, optimized for high-power emission at 1040 nm. A maximum continuous-wave output power of 8.41 W is obtained at a heat sink temperature of 1.5 °C. By inserting a birefringent filter inside the laser cavity, a wavelength tuning over a range of 45 nm is achieved. © 2014 IEEE.

Transiting Exoplanet Studies and Community Targets for JWST's Early Release Science Program

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will likely revolutionize transiting exoplanet atmospheric science, due to a combination of its capability for continuous, long duration observations and its larger collecting area, spectral coverage, and spectral resolution compared to existing space-based facilities. However, it is unclear precisely how well JWST will perform and which of its myriad instruments and observing modes will be best suited for transiting exoplanet studies. In this article, we describe a prefatory JWST Early Release Science (ERS) Cycle 1 program that focuses on testing specific observing modes to quickly give the community the data and experience it needs to plan more efficient and successful transiting exoplanet characterization programs in later cycles. We propose a multi-pronged approach wherein one aspect of the program focuses on observing transits of a single target with all of the recommended observing modes to identify and understand potential systematics, compare transmission spectra at overlapping and neighboring wavelength regions, confirm throughputs, and determine overall performances. In our search for transiting exoplanets that are well suited to achieving these goals, we identify 12 objects (dubbed “community targets”) that meet our defined criteria. Currently, the most favorable target is WASP-62b because of its large predicted signal size, relatively bright host star, and location in JWST's continuous viewing zone. Since most of the community targets do not have well-characterized atmospheres, we recommend initiating preparatory observing programs to determine the presence of obscuring clouds/hazes within their atmospheres. Measurable spectroscopic features are needed to establish the optimal resolution and wavelength regions for exoplanet characterization. Other initiatives from our proposed ERS program include testing the instrument brightness limits and performing phase-curve observations. The latter are a unique challenge compared to transit observations because of their significantly longer durations. Using only a single mode, we propose to observe a full-orbit phase curve of one of the previously characterized, short-orbital-period planets to evaluate the facility-level aspects of long, uninterrupted time-series observations.

Best combination of pre-stimulation and latency period duration before cluster attachment for efficient oxytocin release and milk ejection in cows with low to high udder-filling levels

Experiments were designed to investigate the suitability of a combination of a short manual teat stimulation with a short latency period before teat cup attachment to induce and maintain oxytocin release and milk ejection without interruption. In Experiment 1, seven dairy cows in mid lactation were manually pre-stimulated for 15, 30 or 45 s, followed by either 30 s or 45 s of latency period. It was shown that all treatments induced a similar release of oxytocin without interruption until the end of milking. In particular, the latency period of up to 45 s did not cause a transient decrease of oxytocin concentration. In Experiment 2, milking characteristics were recorded in seven cows each in early, mid, and late lactation, respectively. Because the course of milk ejection depends mainly on the degree of udder filling, individual milkings were classified based on the actual degree of udder filling which differs between lactational stages but also between morning and evening milkings. All animals underwent twelve different udder preparation treatments, i.e. 15, 30, or 45 s of pre-stimulation followed by latency periods of 0, 30, 45, or 60 s. Milking characteristics were recorded. Total milk yield, main milking time and average milk flow rate did not differ between treatments if the degree of udder filling at the start of milking was >40% of the maximum storage capacity. However, if the udder filling was <40%, main milking time was decreased with the duration of a latency period up to 45 s, independent of duration of pre-stimulation. Average milk flow at an udder filling of <40% was highest after a pre-stimulation of 45 s followed by a latency period of another 45 s. In contrast, average milk flow reached its lowest values at a pre-stimulation of 15 s without additional latency period. However, average milk flow after a 15-s pre-stimulation increased with increasing latency period. In conclusion, a very short pre-stimulation when followed by a latency period up to 45 s before teat cup attachment remains a suitable alternative for continuous stimulation to induce milk ejection.