Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Intergenerationale Mobilität im Lebensverlauf oder: Ist der öffentliche Dienst ein Mobilitätskanal zwischen Generationen?

Aus der Lebensverlaufsperspektive wird die intergenerationale Mobilität von Männern und Frauen in den Kohorten 1929-31, 1939-41 und 1949-51 untersucht. In welchem Umfang hat die Expansion des öffentlichen Dienstes Mobilitätschancen eröffnet? Inwieweit hat der öffentliche Dienst als Sonderstruktur im Gegensatz zur Privatwirtschaft seine Funktion als "Mobilitätskanal" ausgeweitet? Modifizieren für den öffentlichen Dienst charakteristische institutionelle Regelungen der Rekrutierung und Allokation von Arbeitskräften diese Funktion? Für empirische Analysen wurden Längsschnittdaten des Lebensverlaufsprojekts am Berliner Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung herangezogen. Zunehmende herkunftsbedingte und bildungsmäßige Ungleichheit bestimmen einen Großteil der Chancen intergenerationaler Mobilität. Die Ausdehnung der Staatsbeschäftigung hat dazu geführt, daß in der Kohortenabfolge vor allem die Berufsanfänger aufstiegen, die in der Lage waren, in den öffentlichen Dienst einzutreten. Das Nachholen beim Berufseinstieg verpaßter Aufstiege ist kaum möglich, und dies gelingt auch nicht durch die Beschäftigung im öffentlichen Dienst. Für die Wahrscheinlichkeit intergenerationaler Aufstiege im Berufsverlauf gibt es keine sektorspezifischen Unterschiede. Staatsbeschäftigte unterliegen aufgrund der Besitzstandswahrung einem deutlich geringeren Abstiegsrisiko als privatwirtschaftlich Beschäftigte. Der Staatssektor hat seine Funktion als Aufstiegskanal für Berufsanfänger ausgeweitet und garantiert seinen langfristig Beschäftigten die erreichte Statuslage. Damit ist der öffentliche Dienst ein weiteres Strukturprinzip sozialer Ungleichheit.

Noninvasive functional and structural exploration of human subcortical structures with high resolution

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada al Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences, Alemanya, entre 2010 i 2012. El principal objectiu d’aquest projecte era estudiar en detall les estructures subcorticals, en concret, el rol dels ganglis basals en control cognitiu durant processament lingüístic i no-lingüístic. Per tal d’assolir una diferenciació minuciosa en els diferents nuclis dels ganglis basals s’utilitzà ressonància magnètica d’ultra-alt camp i alta resolució (7T-MRI). El còrtex prefrontal lateral i els ganglis basals treballant conjuntament per a mitjançar memòria de treball i la regulació “top-down” de la cognició. Aquest circuit regula l’equilibri entre respostes automàtiques i d’alt-ordre cognitiu. Es crearen tres condicions experimentals principals: frases/seqüències noambigües, no-gramatical i ambigües. Les frases/seqüències no-ambigües haurien de provocar una resposta automàtica, mentre les frases/seqüències ambigües i no-gramaticals produïren un conflicte amb la resposta automàtica, i per tant, requeririen una resposta de d’alt-ordre cognitiu. Dins del domini de la resposta de control, la ambigüitat i no-gramaticalitat representen dues dimensions diferents de la resolució de conflicte, mentre per una frase/seqüència temporalment ambigua existeix una interpretació correcte, aquest no és el cas per a les frases/seqüències no-gramaticals. A més, el disseny experimental incloïa una manipulació lingüística i nolingüística, la qual posà a prova la hipòtesi que els efectes són de domini-general; així com una manipulació semàntica i sintàctica que avaluà les diferències entre el processament d’ambigüitat/error “intrínseca” vs. “estructural”. Els resultats del primer experiment (sintax-lingüístic) mostraren un gradient rostroventralcaudodorsal de control cognitiu dins del nucli caudat, això és, les regions més rostrals sostenint els nivells més alts de processament cognitiu

Research programs of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development /

Mode of access: Internet.

Genetics and teratology : research programs of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.

"Prepared by the Genetics and Teratology Section of the Clinical Nutrition and Early Development Branch for presentation to the National Advisory Child Health and Human Development Council, May 1980"--P. 2 of cover.

Pregnancy and perinatology ; research programs of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development /

Cover title.

Development of process control strategies exploiting knowledge from systems biology: application to MDCK suspension cells

Madine Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cell lines have been extensively evaluated for their potential as host cells for influenza vaccine production. Recent studies allowed the cultivation of these cells in a fully defined medium and in suspension. However, reaching high cell densities in animal cell cultures still remains a challenge. To address this shortcoming, a combined methodology allied with knowledge from systems biology was reported to study the impact of the cell environment on the flux distribution. An optimization of the medium composition was proposed for both a batch and a continuous system in order to reach higher cell densities. To obtain insight into the metabolic activity of these cells, a detailed metabolic model previously developed by Wahl A. et. al was used. The experimental data of four cultivations of MDCK suspension cells, grown under different conditions and used in this work came from the Max Planck Institute, Magdeburg, Germany. Classical metabolic flux analysis (MFA) was used to estimate the intracellular flux distribution of each cultivation and then combined with partial least squares (PLS) method to establish a link between the estimated metabolic state and the cell environment. The validation of the MFA model was made and its consistency checked. The resulted PLS model explained almost 70% of the variance present in the flux distribution. The medium optimization for the continuous system and for the batch system resulted in higher biomass growth rates than the ones obtained experimentally, 0.034 h-1 and 0.030 h-1, respectively, thus reducing in almost 10 hours the duplication time. Additionally, the optimal medium obtained for the continuous system almost did not consider pyruvate. Overall the proposed methodology seems to be effective and both proposed medium optimizations seem to be promising to reach high cell densities.

La participación de las ONG en Naciones Unidas y su contribución a la gobernanza global

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el fenómeno de la participación de las ONG en el marco de la Organización de Naciones Unidas (ONU) y las implicaciones del mismo en las dinámicas de la gobernanza global. Se explican los conceptos principales para el análisis y posteriormente se hace una revisión de los antecedentes que permitieron el desarrollo de dicho fenómeno dentro de la organización y fuera de ella. Luego se centra el análisis en la incidencia de las ONG en la ONU y para la gobernanza global; se concluye con una reflexión sobre lo que puede esperarse de esta incidencia para el futuro de la organización.

Development and application of a GC system for NMHC analyses of air samples from the CARIBIC aircraft project

The subject of this thesis is the development of a Gaschromatography (GC) system for non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and measurement of samples within the project CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container, www.caribic-atmospheric.com). Air samples collected at cruising altitude from the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere contain hydrocarbons at low levels (ppt range), which imposes substantial demands on detection limits. Full automation enabled to maintain constant conditions during the sample processing and analyses. Additionally, automation allows overnight operation thus saving time. A gas chromatography using flame ionization detection (FID) together with the dual column approach enables simultaneous detection with almost equal carbon atom response for all hydrocarbons except for ethyne. The first part of this thesis presents the technical descriptions of individual parts of the analytical system. Apart from the sample treatment and calibration procedures, the sample collector is described. The second part deals with analytical performance of the GC system by discussing tests that had been made. Finally, results for measurement flight are assessed in terms of quality of the data and two flights are discussed in detail. Analytical performance is characterized using detection limits for each compound, using uncertainties for each compound, using tests of calibration mixture conditioning and carbon dioxide trap to find out their influence on analyses, and finally by comparing the responses of calibrated substances during period when analyses of the flights were made. Comparison of both systems shows good agreement. However, because of insufficient capacity of the CO2 trap the signal of one column was suppressed due to breakthroughed carbon dioxide so much that its results appeared to be unreliable. Plausibility tests for the internal consistency of the given data sets are based on common patterns exhibited by tropospheric NMHCs. All tests show that samples from the first flights do not comply with the expected pattern. Additionally, detected alkene artefacts suggest potential problems with storing or contamination within all measurement flights. Two last flights # 130-133 and # 166-169 comply with the tests therefore their detailed analysis is made. Samples were analyzed in terms of their origin (troposphere vs. stratosphere, backward trajectories), their aging (NMHCs ratios) and detected plumes were compared to chemical signatures of Asian outflows. In the last chapter a future development of the presented system with focus on separation is drawn. An extensive appendix documents all important aspects of the dissertation from theoretical introduction through illustration of sample treatment to overview diagrams for the measured flights.

Stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope analysis of permafrost preserved human hair from rescue excavations (2009, 2010) at the precontact site of Nunalleq, Alaska

Acknowledgments This work was funded by an Arts and Humanities Research Council (AH/K006029/1) grant awarded to Rick Knecht, Kate Britton and Charlotta Hillerdal (Aberdeen); an AHRC-LabEx award (AH/N504543/1) to KB, RK, Keith Dobney (Liverpool) and Isabelle Sidéra (Nanterre); the Carnegie Trust to the Universities of Scotland (travel grant to KB); and the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology. The onsite collection of samples was carried out by staff and students from the University of Aberdeen, volunteer excavators and the residents of Quinhagak. We had logistical and planning support for fieldwork by the Qanirtuuq Incorporated, Quinhagak, Alaska, and the people of Quinhagak, who we also thank for sampling permissions. Special thanks to Warren Jones and Qanirtuuq Incorporated (especially Michael Smith and Lynn Church), and to all Nunalleq project team members, in Aberdeen and at other institutions, particularly Charlotta Hillerdal and Edouard Masson-Maclean (Aberdeen) for comments on earlier versions of this manuscript, and also to Véronique Forbes, Ana Jorge, Carly Ameen and Ciara Mannion (Aberdeen) for their inputs. Thanks also to Michelle Alexander (York). Finally, thank you to Ian Scharlotta (Alberta) for inviting us to contribute to this special issue, to the Editor, and to three anonymous reviewers, whose suggestions and recommended changes to an earlier version of this manuscript greatly improved the paper.