Random sums of exchangeable variables and actuarial applications

In this paper we study the accumulated claim in some fixed time period, skipping the classical assumption of mutual independence between the variables involved. Two basic models are considered: Model I assumes that any pair of claims are equally correlated which means that the corresponding square-integrable sequence is exchangeable one. Model 2 states that the correlations between the adjacent claims are the same. Recurrence and explicit expressions for the joint probability generating function are derived and the impact of the dependence parameter (correlation coefficient) in both models is examined. The Markov binomial distribution is obtained as a particular case under assumptions of Model 2. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic crack growth analyses using a boundary element model: Applications in linear elastic fracture and fatigue problems

This paper addresses the numerical solution of random crack propagation problems using the coupling boundary element method (BEM) and reliability algorithms. Crack propagation phenomenon is efficiently modelled using BEM, due to its mesh reduction features. The BEM model is based on the dual BEM formulation, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are adopted to construct the system of algebraic equations. Two reliability algorithms are coupled with BEM model. The first is the well known response surface method, in which local, adaptive polynomial approximations of the mechanical response are constructed in search of the design point. Different experiment designs and adaptive schemes are considered. The alternative approach direct coupling, in which the limit state function remains implicit and its gradients are calculated directly from the numerical mechanical response, is also considered. The performance of both coupling methods is compared in application to some crack propagation problems. The investigation shows that direct coupling scheme converged for all problems studied, irrespective of the problem nonlinearity. The computational cost of direct coupling has shown to be a fraction of the cost of response surface solutions, regardless of experiment design or adaptive scheme considered. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Signal Transceiver Transit Times and Propagation Delay Corrections for Ranging and Georeferencing Applications

The accuracy of ranging measurements depends critically on the knowledge of time delays undergone by signals when retransmitted by a remote transponder and due to propagation effects. A new method determines these delays for every single pulsed signal transmission. It utilizes four ground-based reference stations, synchronized in time and installed at well-known geodesic coordinates and a repeater in space, carried by a satellite, balloon, aircraft, and so forth. Signal transmitted by one of the reference bases is retransmitted by the transponder, received back by the four bases, producing four ranging measurements which are processed to determine uniquely the time delays undergone in every retransmission process. A minimization function is derived comparing repeater's positions referred to at least two groups of three reference bases, providing the signal transit time at the repeater and propagation delays, providing the correct repeater position. The method is applicable to the transponder platform positioning and navigation, time synchronization of remote clocks, and location of targets. The algorithm has been demonstrated by simulations adopting a practical example with the transponder carried by an aircraft moving over bases on the ground.

Tidal friction in close-in satellites and exoplanets: The Darwin theory re-visited

This report is a review of Darwin`s classical theory of bodily tides in which we present the analytical expressions for the orbital and rotational evolution of the bodies and for the energy dissipation rates due to their tidal interaction. General formulas are given which do not depend on any assumption linking the tidal lags to the frequencies of the corresponding tidal waves (except that equal frequency harmonics are assumed to span equal lags). Emphasis is given to the cases of companions having reached one of the two possible final states: (1) the super-synchronous stationary rotation resulting from the vanishing of the average tidal torque; (2) capture into the 1:1 spin-orbit resonance (true synchronization). In these cases, the energy dissipation is controlled by the tidal harmonic with period equal to the orbital period (instead of the semi-diurnal tide) and the singularity due to the vanishing of the geometric phase lag does not exist. It is also shown that the true synchronization with non-zero eccentricity is only possible if an extra torque exists opposite to the tidal torque. The theory is developed assuming that this additional torque is produced by an equatorial permanent asymmetry in the companion. The results are model-dependent and the theory is developed only to the second degree in eccentricity and inclination (obliquity). It can easily be extended to higher orders, but formal accuracy will not be a real improvement as long as the physics of the processes leading to tidal lags is not better known.

Chirikov diffusion in the asteroidal three-body resonance (5,-2,-2)

The theory of diffusion in many-dimensional Hamiltonian system is applied to asteroidal dynamics. The general formulation developed by Chirikov is applied to the NesvornA1/2-Morbidelli analytic model of three-body (three-orbit) mean-motion resonances (Jupiter-Saturn-asteroid). In particular, we investigate the diffusion along and across the separatrices of the (5, -2, -2) resonance of the (490) Veritas asteroidal family and their relationship to diffusion in semi-major axis and eccentricity. The estimations of diffusion were obtained using the Melnikov integral, a Hadjidemetriou-type sympletic map and numerical integrations for times up to 10(8) years.

Consistency in approximate entropy given by a volumetric estimate

Non-linear methods for estimating variability in time-series are currently of widespread use. Among such methods are approximate entropy (ApEn) and sample approximate entropy (SampEn). The applicability of ApEn and SampEn in analyzing data is evident and their use is increasing. However, consistency is a point of concern in these tools, i.e., the classification of the temporal organization of a data set might indicate a relative less ordered series in relation to another when the opposite is true. As highlighted by their proponents themselves, ApEn and SampEn might present incorrect results due to this lack of consistency. In this study, we present a method which gains consistency by using ApEn repeatedly in a wide range of combinations of window lengths and matching error tolerance. The tool is called volumetric approximate entropy, vApEn. We analyze nine artificially generated prototypical time-series with different degrees of temporal order (combinations of sine waves, logistic maps with different control parameter values, random noises). While ApEn/SampEn clearly fail to consistently identify the temporal order of the sequences, vApEn correctly do. In order to validate the tool we performed shuffled and surrogate data analysis. Statistical analysis confirmed the consistency of the method. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using stochastic volatility models to analyse weekly ozone averages in Mexico City

In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive Ordinate method.

Predator-prey models: an application for the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva

In this paper we present a hierarchical Bayesian analysis for a predator-prey model applied to ecology considering the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We consider the introduction of a random effect in the model and the presence of a covariate vector. An application to ecology is considered using a data set related to the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva for the year 1990. We also discuss some aspects of discrimination of the proposed models.

A GRADIENT-LIKE NONAUTONOMOUS EVOLUTION PROCESS

In this paper we consider a dissipative damped wave equation with nonautonomous damping of the form u(tt) + beta(t)u(t) - Delta u + f(u) (1) in a bounded smooth domain Omega subset of R(n) with Dirichlet boundary conditions, where f is a dissipative smooth nonlinearity and the damping beta : R -> (0, infinity) is a suitable function. We prove, if (1) has finitely many equilibria, that all global bounded solutions of (1) are backwards and forwards asymptotic to equilibria. Thus, we give a class of examples of nonautonomous evolution processes for which the structure of the pullback attractors is well understood. That complements the results of [Carvalho & Langa, 2009] on characterization of attractors, where it was shown that a small nonautonomous perturbation of an autonomous gradient-like evolution process is also gradient-like. Note that the evolution process associated to (1) is not a small nonautonomous perturbation of any autonomous gradient-like evolution processes. Moreover, we are also able to prove that the pullback attractor for (1) is also a forwards attractor and that the rate of attraction is exponential.

Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models

In this paper, we develop a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible in terms of dispersion than the promotion time cure model. Moreover, it gives an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of event of interest as it includes a destructive process of the initial risk factors in a competitive scenario. In other words, what is recorded is only from the undamaged portion of the original number of risk factors.

A geometric mass-preserving redistancing scheme for the level set function

In this paper we describe and evaluate a geometric mass-preserving redistancing procedure for the level set function on general structured grids. The proposed algorithm is adapted from a recent finite element-based method and preserves the mass by means of a localized mass correction. A salient feature of the scheme is the absence of adjustable parameters. The algorithm is tested in two and three spatial dimensions and compared with the widely used partial differential equation (PDE)-based redistancing method using structured Cartesian grids. Through the use of quantitative error measures of interest in level set methods, we show that the overall performance of the proposed geometric procedure is better than PDE-based reinitialization schemes, since it is more robust with comparable accuracy. We also show that the algorithm is well-suited for the highly stretched curvilinear grids used in CFD simulations. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Numerical study of the atmospheric flow over a coastal cliff

This work presents a numerical method suitable for the study of the development of internal boundary layers (IBL) and their characteristics for flows over various types of coastal cliffs. The IBL is an important meteorological occurrence for flows with surface roughness and topographical step changes. A two-dimensional flow program was used for this study. The governing equations were written using the vorticity-velocity formulation. The spatial derivatives were discretized by high-order compact finite differences schemes. The time integration was performed with a low storage fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme. The coastal cliff (step) was specified through an immersed boundary method. The validation of the code was done by comparison of the results with experimental and observational data. The numerical simulations were carried out for different coastal cliff heights and inclinations. The results show that the predominant factors for the height of the IBL and its characteristics are the upstream velocity, and the height and form (inclination) of the coastal cliff. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

UNIFORM DISSIPATIVENESS, ROBUST SYNCHRONIZATION AND LOCATION OF THE ATTRACTOR OF PARAMETRIZED NONAUTONOMOUS DISCRETE SYSTEMS

In this series of papers, we study issues related to the synchronization of two coupled chaotic discrete systems arising from secured communication. The first part deals with uniform dissipativeness with respect to parameter variation via the Liapunov direct method. We obtain uniform estimates of the global attractor for a general discrete nonautonomous system, that yields a uniform invariance principle in the autonomous case. The Liapunov function is allowed to have positive derivative along solutions of the system inside a bounded set, and this reduces substantially the difficulty of constructing a Liapunov function for a given system. In particular, we develop an approach that incorporates the classical Lagrange multiplier into the Liapunov function method to naturally extend those Liapunov functions from continuous dynamical system to their discretizations, so that the corresponding uniform dispativeness results are valid when the step size of the discretization is small. Applications to the discretized Lorenz system and the discretization of a time-periodic chaotic system are given to illustrate the general results. We also show how to obtain uniform estimation of attractors for parametrized linear stable systems with nonlinear perturbation.