Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling

A persistent question in the development of models for macroeconomic policy analysis has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence in their construction. This paper looks at some popular strategies that involve setting up a theoretical or conceptual model (CM) which is transformed to match the data and then made operational for policy analysis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed that is similar to standard CMs. After calibration to UK data it is used to examine the utility of formal econometric methods in assessing the match of the CM to the data and also to evaluate some standard model-building strategies. Keywords: Policy oriented economic modeling; Model evaluation; VAR models

Cyclist visibility at night : perceptions of visibility do not necessarily match reality

Visibility limitations make cycling at night particularly dangerous. We previously reported cyclists’ perceptions of their own visibility at night and identified clothing configurations that made them feel visible. In this study we sought to determine whether these self-perceptions reflect actual visibility when wearing these clothing configurations. In a closed-road driving environment, cyclists wore black clothing, a fluorescent vest, a reflective vest, or a reflective vest plus ankle and knee reflectors. Drivers recognised more cyclists wearing the reflective vest plus reflectors (90%) than the reflective vest alone (50%), fluorescent vest (15%) or black clothing (2%). Older drivers recognised the cyclists less often than younger drivers (51% vs 27%). The findings suggest that reflective ankle and knee markings are particularly valuable at night, while fluorescent clothing is not. Cyclists wearing fluorescent clothing may be at particular risk if they incorrectly believe themselves to be conspicuous to drivers at night.

Post-match changes in neuromuscular function and the relationship to match demands in amateur rugby league matches

Objectives: The current study investigated the change in neuromuscular contractile properties following competitive rugby league matches and the relationship with physical match demands. Design: Eleven trained, male rugby league players participated in 2–3 amateur, competitive matches (n = 30). Methods: Prior to, immediately (within 15-min) and 2 h post-match, players performed repeated counter-movement jumps (CMJ) followed by isometric tests on the right knee extensors for maximal voluntary contraction (MVC), voluntary activation (VA) and evoked twitch contractile properties of peak twitch force (Pt), rate of torque development (RTD), contraction duration (CD) and relaxation rate (RR). During each match, players wore 1 Hz Global Positioning Satellite devices to record distance and speeds of matches. Further, matches were filmed and underwent notational analysis for number of total body collisions. Results: Total, high-intensity, very-high intensity distances covered and mean speed were 5585 ± 1078 m, 661 ± 265, 216 ± 121 m and 75 ± 14 m min−1, respectively. MVC was significantly reduced immediately and 2 h post-match by 8 ± 11 and 12 ± 13% from pre-match (p < 0.05). Moreover, twitch contractile properties indicated a suppression of Pt, RTD and RR immediately post-match (p < 0.05). However, VA was not significantly altered from pre-match (90 ± 9%), immediately-post (89 ± 9%) or 2 h post (89 ± 8%), (p > 0.05). Correlation analyses indicated that total playing time (r = −0.50) and mean speed (r = −0.40) were moderately associated to the change in post-match MVC, while mean speed (r = 0.35) was moderately associated to VA. Conclusions: The present study highlights the physical demands of competitive amateur rugby league result in interruption of peripheral contractile function, and post-match voluntary torque suppression may be associated with match playing time and mean speeds.

The effect of post-match alcohol ingestion on recovery from competitive Rugby League matches

This study investigated the effects of alcohol ingestion on lower body strength and power, and physiological and cognitive recovery following competitive Rugby League matches. Nine male Rugby players participated in two matches, followed by one of two randomized interventions; a control or alcohol ingestion session. Four hours post-match, participants consumed either beverages containing a total of 1g of ethanol per kg bodyweight (vodka and orange juice; ALC) or a caloric and taste matched non-alcoholic beverage (orange juice; CONT). Pre, post, 2 h post and 16 h post match measures of countermovement jump (CMJ), maximal voluntary contraction(MVC), voluntary activation (VA), damage and stress markers of creatine kinase (CK), C-reactive protein (CRP), cortisol, and testosterone analysed from venous blood collection, and cognitive function (modified Stroop test) were determined. Alcohol resulted in large effects for decreased CMJ height(-2.35 ± 8.14 and -10.53 ± 8.36 % decrement for CONT and ALC respectively; P=0.15, d=1.40), without changes in MVC (P=0.52, d=0.70) or VA (P=0.15, d=0.69). Furthermore, alcohol resulted in a significant slowing of total time in a cognitive test (P=0.04, d=1.59), whilst exhibiting large effects for detriments in congruent reaction time (P=0.19, d=1.73). Despite large effects for increased cortisol following alcohol ingestion during recovery (P=0.28, d=1.44), post-match alcohol consumption did not unduly affect testosterone (P-0.96, d=0.10), CK (P=0.66, d=0.70) or CRP(P=0.75, d=0.60). It appears alcohol consumption during the evening following competitive rugby matches may have some detrimental effects on peak power and cognitive recovery the morning following a Rugby League match. Accordingly, practitioners should be aware of the potential associated detrimental effects of alcohol consumption on recovery and provide alcohol awareness to athletes at post-match functions.

Estimating the probability of an invalid match for matching using the rank transform

A fundamental problem faced by stereo matching algorithms is the matching or correspondence problem. A wide range of algorithms have been proposed for the correspondence problem. For all matching algorithms, it would be useful to be able to compute a measure of the probability of correctness, or reliability of a match. This paper focuses in particular on one class for matching algorithms, which are based on the rank transform. The interest in these algorithms for stereo matching stems from their invariance to radiometric distortion, and their amenability to fast hardware implementation. This work differs from previous work in that it derives, from first principles, an expression for the probability of a correct match. This method was based on an enumeration of all possible symbols for matching. The theoretical results for disparity error prediction, obtained using this method, were found to agree well with experimental results. However, disadvantages of the technique developed in this chapter are that it is not easily applicable to real images, and also that it is too computationally expensive for practical window sizes. Nevertheless, the exercise provides an interesting and novel analysis of match reliability.

Effects of acute multi-nutrient supplementation on rugby union match performance and recovery

Aim: To determine the effects of an acute multi-nutrient supplement on physiological, performance and recovery responses to intermittent-sprint running and muscular damage during rugby union matches. Methods: Using a randomised, double-blind, cross-over design, twelve male rugby union players ingested either 75 g of a comprehensive multi-nutrient supplement (SUPP), [Musashi] or 1 g of a taste and carbohydrate matched placebo (PL) for 5 days pre-competition. Competitive rugby union game running performance was then measured using 1 Hz GPS data (SPI10, SPI elite, GPSports), in addition to associated blood draws, vertical jump assessments and ratings of perceived muscular soreness (MS) pre, immediately post and 24 h post-competition. Baseline (BL) GPS data was collected during six competition rounds preceding data collection. Results: No significant differences were observed between supplement conditions for all game running, vertical jump, and ratings of perceived muscular soreness. However, effect size analysis indicated SUPP ingestion increased 1st half very high intensity running (VHIR) mean speed (d = 0.93) and 2nd half relative distance (m/min) (d = 0.97). Further, moderate increases in 2nd half VHIR distance (d = 0.73), VHIR m/min (d = 0.70) and VHIR mean speed (d = 0.56) in SUPP condition were also apparent. Moreover, SUPP demonstrated significant increases in 2nd half dist m/min, total game dist m/min and total game HIR m/min compared with BL data (P < 0.05). Further, large ES increases in VHIR time (d = 0.88) and moderate increases in 2nd half HIR m/min (d = 0.65) and 2nd half VHIR m/min (d = 0.74) were observed between SUPP and BL. Post-game aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (d = 1.16) and creatine kinase (CK) (d = 0.97) measures demonstrated increased ES values with SUPP, while AST and CK values correlated with 2nd half VHIR distance (r = −0.71 and r = −0.76 respectively). Elevated c-reactive protein (CRP) was observed post-game in both conditions, however was significantly blunted with SUPP (P = 0.05). Additionally, pre-game (d = 0.98) and post-game (d = 0.96) increases in cortisol (CORT) were apparent with SUPP. No differences were apparent between conditions for pH, lactate, glucose, HCO3, vertical jump assessments and MS (P > 0.05). Conclusion: These findings suggest SUPP may assist in the maintenance of VHIR speeds and distances covered during rugby union games, possibly via the buffering qualities of SUPP ingredients (i.e. caffeine, creatine, bicarbonate). While the mechanisms for these findings are unclear, the similar pH between conditions despite additional VHIR during SUPP may support this conclusion. Finally, correlations between increased work completed at very high intensities and muscular degradation in SUPP conditions, may mask any anti-catabolic properties of supplementation.

Rapid match-searching for gene silencing assessment

Motivation: Gene silencing, also called RNA interference, requires reliable assessment of silencer impacts. A critical task is to find matches between silencer oligomers and sites in the genome, in accordance with one-to-many matching rules (G-U matching, with provision for mismatches). Fast search algorithms are required to support silencer impact assessments in procedures for designing effective silencer sequences.Results: The article presents a matching algorithm and data structures specialized for matching searches, including a kernel procedure that addresses a Boolean version of the database task called the skyline search. Besides exact matches, the algorithm is extended to allow for the location-specific mismatches applicable in plants. Computational tests show that the algorithm is significantly faster than suffix-tree alternatives. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Rapid yet accurate speech indexing using dynamic match lattice spotting

The support for typically out-of-vocabulary query terms such as names, acronyms, and foreign words is an important requirement of many speech indexing applications. However, to date many unrestricted vocabulary indexing systems have struggled to provide a balance between good detection rate and fast query speeds. This paper presents a fast and accurate unrestricted vocabulary speech indexing technique named Dynamic Match Lattice Spotting (DMLS). The proposed method augments the conventional lattice spotting technique with dynamic sequence matching, together with a number of other novel algorithmic enhancements, to obtain a system that is capable of searching hours of speech in seconds while maintaining excellent detection performance

Cohabitation, marriage, and divorce in a model of match quality

The objective of this research is to further our understanding of how and why individuals enter and leave coresidential relationships. We develop and estimate an economic model of nonmarital cohabitation, marriage, and divorce that is consistent with current data on the formation and dissolution of relationships. Jovanovic's (Journal of Political Economy 87 (1979), 972-90) theoretical matching model is extended to help explain household formation and dissolution behavior. Implications of the model reveal what factors influence the decision to start a relationship, what form this relationship will take, and the relative stability of the various types of unions. The structural parameters of the model are estimated using longitudinal data from a sample of female high school seniors from the United States. New numerical methods are developed to reduce computational costs associated with estimation. The empirical results have interesting interpretations given the structural model. They show that a significant cause of cohabitation is the need to learn about potential partners and to hedge against future bad shocks. The estimated parameters are used to conduct several comparative dynamic experiments. For example, we show that policy experiments changing the cost of divorce have little effect on relationship choices.

Developing health literacy through school based health education : can reality match rhetoric

Recently in Australia, the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission (2009) and National Preventative Health Taskforce (2009) recommended that one way to strengthen consumer engagement within a health system is to ensure health literacy comprise a core element of the National Curriculum for primary and secondary schooling. However, whilst nationally and internationally schools are mandated to teach health education, there is considerable disjuncture between societies' broad expectations and schools' capacities to deliver programs that promote healthy Jiving (Marks, 2010; Basch, 2010). Given the centrality of literacy education in contemporary schooling (Snyder, 2008), 'health literacy' has been identified as a construct that offers the potential to close this perceived gap (McCuaig, Coore & Hay, 2012; Kickbusch, 2001). To date, there has been limited research asto what a health literacy focused, school based health education curriculum could look like.

Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

The international match: Metaphors as vehicles of social identity building in cross-border mergers

This article focuses on cultural identity-building in the cross-border merger context. To provide an alternative to the dominant essentialist analyses of cultures and cultural differences, cultural identitybuilding is conceptualized as a metaphoric process. The focus is on two processes inherent in the cross-border merger context: construction of images of Us and Them and construction of images of a Common Future. Based on an analysis of a special metaphor exercise carried out in a recent Finnish–Swedish merger, the article illustrates how the metaphoric perspective reveals specific cognitive, emotional and political aspects of cultural identity-building that easily remain ‘hidden’ in the case of more traditional approaches.