Report of the training in database and spatial analysis for Marine Protected Areas staff in Indonesia's BOBLME region, Medan, Indonesia, 30 June-4 July, 2015

Training included: Geographic Information System (GIS)concept and software; Global Positioning System (GPS); Ecological Gap Analysis and Marine Protected Area (MPA) design using Marine Reserve Design using Spatially Explicit Annealing (MARXAN); and cartography.

Étude des impacts écologiques du dynamisme spatio-temporel des habitats naturels sur la faune menacée du Complexe Zones Humides Mahavavy-Kinkony, Madagascar.

This study of the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) assesses the impacts of habitat change on the resident globally threatened fauna. Located in Boeny Region, northwest Madagascar, the Complex encompasses a range of habitats including freshwater lakes, rivers, marshes, mangrove forests, and deciduous forest. Spatial modelling and analysis tools were used to (i) identify the important habitats for selected, threatened fauna, (ii) assess their change from 1950 to 2005, (iii) detect the causes of change, (iv) simulate changes to 2050 and (v) evaluate the impacts of change. The approach for prioritising potential habitats for threatened species used ecological science techniques assisted by the decision support software Marxan. Nineteen species were analysed: nine birds, three primates, three fish, three bats and one reptile. Based on knowledge of local land use, supervised classification of Landsat images from 2005 was used to classify the land use of the Complex. Simulations of land use change to 2050 were carried out based on the Land Change Modeler module in Idrisi Andes with the neural network algorithm. Changes in land use at site level have occurred over time but they are not significant. However, reductions in the extent of reed marshes at Lake Kinkony and forests at Tsiombikibo and Marofandroboka directly threaten the species that depend on these habitats. Long term change monitoring is recommended for the Mahavavy Delta, in order to evaluate the predictions through time. The future change of Andohaomby forest is of great concern and conservation actions are recommended as a high priority. Abnormal physicochemical properties were detected in lake Kinkony due to erosion of the four watersheds to the south, therefore an anti-erosion management plan is required for these watersheds. Among the species of global conservation concern, Sakalava rail (Amaurornis olivieri), Crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and dambabe (Paretroplus dambabe) are estimated the most affected, but at the site level Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckeni), kotsovato (Paretroplus kieneri) and Madagascan big-headed turtle (Erymnochelys madagascariensis) are also threatened. Local enforcement of national legislation on hunting means that MKWC is among the sites where the flying fox (Pteropus rufus) and Madagascan rousette (Rousettus madagascariensis) are well protected. Ecological restoration, ecological research and actions to reduce anthropogenic pressures are recommended.

Mapping multi-species habitat use for marine conservation planning

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Biologia Marinha)

Integrating species life-history traits and patterns of deforestation in amphibian conservation planning

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Conservation planning with irreplaceability: does the method matter?

A number of systematic conservation planning tools are available to aid in making land use decisions. Given the increasing worldwide use and application of reserve design tools, including measures of site irreplaceability, it is essential that methodological differences and their potential effect on conservation planning outcomes are understood. We compared the irreplaceability of sites for protecting ecosystems within the Brigalow Belt Bioregion, Queensland, Australia, using two alternative reserve system design tools, Marxan and C-Plan. We set Marxan to generate multiple reserve systems that met targets with minimal area; the first scenario ignored spatial objectives, while the second selected compact groups of areas. Marxan calculates the irreplaceability of each site as the proportion of solutions in which it occurs for each of these set scenarios. In contrast, C-Plan uses a statistical estimate of irreplaceability as the likelihood that each site is needed in all combinations of sites that satisfy the targets. We found that sites containing rare ecosystems are almost always irreplaceable regardless of the method. Importantly, Marxan and C-Plan gave similar outcomes when spatial objectives were ignored. Marxan with a compactness objective defined twice as much area as irreplaceable, including many sites with relatively common ecosystems. However, targets for all ecosystems were met using a similar amount of area in C-Plan and Marxan, even with compactness. The importance of differences in the outcomes of using the two methods will depend on the question being addressed; in general, the use of two or more complementary tools is beneficial.

When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Simulating the value of collaboration in multi-actor conservation planning

The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent for conservation purposes on actions such as the acquisition and management of land, the rehabilitation of degraded habitats, and the purchase of easements from private landowners. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We use a modelling framework to explore this issue with a study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for conservation. We apply our model to simulated data using distributions taken from real data to simulate the cost of patches and the rarity and co-occurence of species. In our model each agent attempted to implement a conservation network that met its target for the minimum cost using the conservation planning software Marxan. We examine three scenarios where the conservation targets of the agents differ. The first scenario (called NGO-NGO) models the situation where two NGOs are both are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios (called NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO, respectively) represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing all species, while an NGO is focused on achieving additional protection for the most endangered species. For each of these scenarios we examined three types of interactions between agents: i) acting in isolation where the agents are attempting to achieve their targets solely though their own actions ii) sharing information where each agent is aware of the species representation achieved within the other agent’s conservation network and, iii) pooling resources where agents combine their resources and undertake conservation actions as a single entity. The latter two interactions represent different types of collaborations and in each scenario we determine the cost savings from sharing information or pooling resources. In each case we examined the utility of these interactions from the viewpoint of the combined conservation network resulting from both agents' actions, as well as from each agent’s individual perspective. The costs for each agent to achieve their objectives varied depending on the order in which the agents acted, the type of interaction between agents, and the specific goals of each agent. There were significant cost savings from increased collaboration via sharing information in the NGO-NGO scenario were the agent’s representation goals were mutually exclusive (in terms of specie targeted). In the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios, collaboration generated much smaller savings. If the two agents collaborate by pooling resources there are multiple ways the total cost could be shared between both agents. For each scenario we investigate the costs and benefits for all possible cost sharing proportions. We find that there are a range of cost sharing proportions where both agents can benefit in the NGO-NGO scenarios while the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios again showed little benefit. Although the model presented here has a range of simplifying assumptions, it demonstrates that the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. The model demonstrates a method for determining the range of collaboration costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.

Evaluating conservation and fisheries management strategies by linking spatial prioritization software and ecosystem and fisheries modelling tools

Well-designed marine protected area (MPA) networks can deliver a range of ecological, economic and social benefits, and so a great deal of research has focused on developing spatial conservation prioritization tools to help identify important areas. However, whilst these software tools are designed to identify MPA networks that both represent biodiversity and minimize impacts on stakeholders, they do not consider complex ecological processes. Thus, it is difficult to determine the impacts that proposed MPAs could have on marine ecosystem health, fisheries and fisheries sustainability. Using the eastern English Channel as a case study, this paper explores an approach to address these issues by identifying a series of MPA networks using the Marxan and Marxan with Zones conservation planning software and linking them with a spatially explicit ecosystem model developed in Ecopath with Ecosim. We then use these to investigate potential trade-offs associated with adopting different MPA management strategies. Limited-take MPAs, which restrict the use of some fishing gears, could have positive benefits for conservation and fisheries in the eastern English Channel, even though they generally receive far less attention in research on MPA network design. Our findings, however, also clearly indicate that no-take MPAs should form an integral component of proposed MPA networks in the eastern English Channel, as they not only result in substantial increases in ecosystem biomass, fisheries catches and the biomass of commercially valuable target species, but are fundamental to maintaining the sustainability of the fisheries. Synthesis and applications. Using the existing software tools Marxan with Zones and Ecopath with Ecosim in combination provides a powerful policy-screening approach. This could help inform marine spatial planning by identifying potential conflicts and by designing new regulations that better balance conservation objectives and stakeholder interests. In addition, it highlights that appropriate combinations of no-take and limited-take marine protected areas might be the most effective when making trade-offs between long-term ecological benefits and short-term political acceptability.

Toward adaptive management of coastal MPAs: The influence of different conservation targets and costs on the design of no-take areas

There is still much discussion on the most appropriate location, size and shape of marine protected areas (MPAs). These three factors were analyzed for a small coastal MPA, the Luiz Saldanha Marine Park (LSMP), for which a very limited amount of local ecological information was available when implemented in 1998. Marxan was used to provide a number of near-optimal solutions considering different levels of protection for the various conservation features and different costs. These solutions were compared with the existing no-take area of the LSMP. Information on 11 habitat types and distribution models for 3 of the most important species for the local artisanal fisheries was considered. The human activities with the highest economic and ecological impact in the study area (commercial and recreational fishing and scuba diving) were used as costs. The results show that the existing no-take area is actually located in the best area. However, the no-take area offers limited protection to vagile fish and covers a very small proportion of some of the available habitats. An increase in the conservation targets led to an increase in the number of no-take areas. The comparative framework used in this study can be applied elsewhere, providing relevant information to local stakeholders and managers in order to proceed with adaptive management. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining conservation priority areas for Palearctic passerine migrant birds in sub-Saharan Africa

Migratory bird species breeding in the Palearctic and overwintering in sub-Saharan Africa face multiple conservation challenges. As a result, many of these species have declined in recent decades, some dramatically. We therefore used the best available database for the distribution of 68 passerine migrants in sub-Saharan Africa to determine priority regions for their conservation. After modeling each species’ distribution using BIOMOD software, we entered the resulting species distributions at a 1° × 1° grid resolution into MARXAN software. We then used several different selection procedures that varied the boundary length modifier, species penalty factor, and the inclusion of grid cells with high human footprint and with protected areas. While results differed between selection procedures, four main regions were regularly selected: (1) one centered on southern Mali; (2) one including Eritrea, central Sudan, and northern Ethiopia; (3) one encompassing southwestern Kenya and much of Tanzania and Uganda; and (4) one including much of Zimbabwe and southwestern Zambia. We recommend that these four regions become priority regions for research and conservation efforts for the bird species considered in this study.

Using modeling tools for implementing feasible land use and nature conservation governance systems in small islands e The Pico Island (Azores) case-study

The present study deals with the development of systematic conservation planning as management instrument in small oceanic islands, ensuring open systems of governance, and able to integrate an informed and involved participation of the stakeholders. Marxan software was used to define management areas according a set of alternative land use scenarios considering different conservation and management paradigms. Modeled conservation zones were interpreted and compared with the existing protected areas allowing more fused information for future trade-outs and stakeholder's involvement. The results, allowing the identification of Target Management Units (TMU) based on the consideration of different development scenarios proved to be consistent with a feasible development of evaluation approaches able to support sound governance systems. Moreover, the detailed geographic identification of TMU seems to be able to support participated policies towards a more sustainable management of the entire island