Exponentiated gradient algorithms for conditional random fields and max-margin Markov Networks

Log-linear and maximum-margin models are two commonly-used methods in supervised machine learning, and are frequently used in structured prediction problems. Efficient learning of parameters in these models is therefore an important problem, and becomes a key factor when learning from very large data sets. This paper describes exponentiated gradient (EG) algorithms for training such models, where EG updates are applied to the convex dual of either the log-linear or max-margin objective function; the dual in both the log-linear and max-margin cases corresponds to minimizing a convex function with simplex constraints. We study both batch and online variants of the algorithm, and provide rates of convergence for both cases. In the max-margin case, O(1/ε) EG updates are required to reach a given accuracy ε in the dual; in contrast, for log-linear models only O(log(1/ε)) updates are required. For both the max-margin and log-linear cases, our bounds suggest that the online EG algorithm requires a factor of n less computation to reach a desired accuracy than the batch EG algorithm, where n is the number of training examples. Our experiments confirm that the online algorithms are much faster than the batch algorithms in practice. We describe how the EG updates factor in a convenient way for structured prediction problems, allowing the algorithms to be efficiently applied to problems such as sequence learning or natural language parsing. We perform extensive evaluation of the algorithms, comparing them to L-BFGS and stochastic gradient descent for log-linear models, and to SVM-Struct for max-margin models. The algorithms are applied to a multi-class problem as well as to a more complex large-scale parsing task. In all these settings, the EG algorithms presented here outperform the other methods.

Probabilistic Independence Networks for Hidden Markov Probability Models

Graphical techniques for modeling the dependencies of randomvariables have been explored in a variety of different areas includingstatistics, statistical physics, artificial intelligence, speech recognition, image processing, and genetics.Formalisms for manipulating these models have been developedrelatively independently in these research communities. In this paper weexplore hidden Markov models (HMMs) and related structures within the general framework of probabilistic independencenetworks (PINs). The paper contains a self-contained review of the basic principles of PINs.It is shown that the well-known forward-backward (F-B) and Viterbialgorithms for HMMs are special cases of more general inference algorithms forarbitrary PINs. Furthermore, the existence of inference and estimationalgorithms for more general graphical models provides a set of analysistools for HMM practitioners who wish to explore a richer class of HMMstructures.Examples of relatively complex models to handle sensorfusion and coarticulationin speech recognitionare introduced and treated within the graphical model framework toillustrate the advantages of the general approach.

New methods for generating populations in Markov network based EDAs: Decimation strategies and model-based template recombination

Methods for generating a new population are a fundamental component of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs). They serve to transfer the information contained in the probabilistic model to the new generated population. In EDAs based on Markov networks, methods for generating new populations usually discard information contained in the model to gain in efficiency. Other methods like Gibbs sampling use information about all interactions in the model but are computationally very costly. In this paper we propose new methods for generating new solutions in EDAs based on Markov networks. We introduce approaches based on inference methods for computing the most probable configurations and model-based template recombination. We show that the application of different variants of inference methods can increase the EDAs’ convergence rate and reduce the number of function evaluations needed to find the optimum of binary and non-binary discrete functions.

Bayesian Structured Prediction Using Gaussian Processes

We introduce a conceptually novel structured prediction model, GPstruct, which is kernelized, non-parametric and Bayesian, by design. We motivate the model with respect to existing approaches, among others, conditional random fields (CRFs), maximum margin Markov networks (M3N), and structured support vector machines (SVMstruct), which embody only a subset of its properties. We present an inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The framework can be instantiated for a wide range of structured objects such as linear chains, trees, grids, and other general graphs. As a proof of concept, the model is benchmarked on several natural language processing tasks and a video gesture segmentation task involving a linear chain structure. We show prediction accuracies for GPstruct which are comparable to or exceeding those of CRFs and SVMstruct.

Structure learning of context-specific graphical models

Abstract The ultimate problem considered in this thesis is modeling a high-dimensional joint distribution over a set of discrete variables. For this purpose, we consider classes of context-specific graphical models and the main emphasis is on learning the structure of such models from data. Traditional graphical models compactly represent a joint distribution through a factorization justi ed by statements of conditional independence which are encoded by a graph structure. Context-speci c independence is a natural generalization of conditional independence that only holds in a certain context, speci ed by the conditioning variables. We introduce context-speci c generalizations of both Bayesian networks and Markov networks by including statements of context-specific independence which can be encoded as a part of the model structures. For the purpose of learning context-speci c model structures from data, we derive score functions, based on results from Bayesian statistics, by which the plausibility of a structure is assessed. To identify high-scoring structures, we construct stochastic and deterministic search algorithms designed to exploit the structural decomposition of our score functions. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that the increased exibility of context-specific structures can more accurately emulate the dependence structure among the variables and thereby improve the predictive accuracy of the models.

Bayesian parameter estimation for latent Markov random fields and social networks

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem, comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant (a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with approximate Bayesian computation (Pritchard et al., 1999). Applications to estimating the parameters of Ising models and exponential random graphs from noisy data are presented. Each algorithm used in the paper targets an approximation to the true posterior due to the use of MCMC to simulate from the latent graphical model, in lieu of being able to do this exactly in general. The supplementary appendix also describes the nature of the resulting approximation.

Green-Markov models - new optimization strategies: a case study for user allocation in co-channel macro/femto networks

ABSTRACT: The femtocell concept aims to combine fixed-line broadband access with mobile telephony using the deployment of low-cost, low-power third and fourth generation base stations in the subscribers' homes. While the self-configuration of femtocells is a plus, it can limit the quality of service (QoS) for the users and reduce the efficiency of the network, based on outdated allocation parameters such as signal power level. To this end, this paper presents a proposal for optimized allocation of users on a co-channel macro-femto network, that enable self-configuration and public access, aiming to maximize the quality of service of applications and using more efficiently the available energy, seeking the concept of Green networking. Thus, when the user needs to connect to make a voice or a data call, the mobile phone has to decide which network to connect, using the information of number of connections, the QoS parameters (packet loss and throughput) and the signal power level of each network. For this purpose, the system is modeled as a Markov Decision Process, which is formulated to obtain an optimal policy that can be applied on the mobile phone. The policy created is flexible, allowing different analyzes, and adaptive to the specific characteristics defined by the telephone company. The results show that compared to traditional QoS approaches, the policy proposed here can improve energy efficiency by up to 10%.

Cooperative off-policy prediction of markov decision processes in adaptive networks

We apply diffusion strategies to propose a cooperative reinforcement learning algorithm, in which agents in a network communicate with their neighbors to improve predictions about their environment. The algorithm is suitable to learn off-policy even in large state spaces. We provide a mean-square-error performance analysis under constant step-sizes. The gain of cooperation in the form of more stability and less bias and variance in the prediction error, is illustrated in the context of a classical model. We show that the improvement in performance is especially significant when the behavior policy of the agents is different from the target policy under evaluation.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

An accurate Markov model for slotted CSMA/CA algorithm in IEEE 802.15.4 networks

In this letter we propose an Markov model for slotted CSMA/CA algorithm working in a non-acknowledgement mode, specified in IEEE 802.15.4 standard. Both saturation throughput and energy consumption are modeled as functions of backoff window size, number of contending devices and frame length. Simulations show that the proposed model can achieve a very high accuracy (less than 1% mismatch) if compared to all existing models (bigger than 10% mismatch).

Markov modelling of the IEEE 802.11 DCF for real-time applications with periodic traffic

Popular wireless network standards, such as IEEE 802.11/15/16, are increasingly adopted in real-time control systems. However, they are not designed for real-time applications. Therefore, the performance of such wireless networks needs to be carefully evaluated before the systems are implemented and deployed. While efforts have been made to model general wireless networks with completely random traffic generation, there is a lack of theoretical investigations into the modelling of wireless networks with periodic real-time traffic. Considering the widely used IEEE 802.11 standard, with the focus on its distributed coordination function (DCF), for soft-real-time control applications, this paper develops an analytical Markov model to quantitatively evaluate the network quality-of-service (QoS) performance in periodic real-time traffic environments. Performance indices to be evaluated include throughput capacity, transmission delay and packet loss ratio, which are crucial for real-time QoS guarantee in real-time control applications. They are derived under the critical real-time traffic condition, which is formally defined in this paper to characterize the marginal satisfaction of real-time performance constraints.