Vision-based estimation of airborne target pseudobearing rate using hidden Markov model filters

The problem of estimating pseudobearing rate information of an airborne target based on measurements from a vision sensor is considered. Novel image speed and heading angle estimators are presented that exploit image morphology, hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering, and relative entropy rate (RER) concepts to allow pseudobearing rate information to be determined before (or whilst) the target track is being estimated from vision information.

Reduced complexity on-line estimation of hidden Markov model parameters

In this paper we propose and study low complexity algorithms for on-line estimation of hidden Markov model (HMM) parameters. The estimates approach the true model parameters as the measurement noise approaches zero, but otherwise give improved estimates, albeit with bias. On a nite data set in the high noise case, the bias may not be signi cantly more severe than for a higher complexity asymptotically optimal scheme. Our algorithms require O(N3) calculations per time instant, where N is the number of states. Previous algorithms based on earlier hidden Markov model signal processing methods, including the expectation-maximumisation (EM) algorithm require O(N4) calculations per time instant.

Online hidden Markov model parameter estimation and minimax robust quickest change detection in uncertain stochastic processes

Stochastic (or random) processes are inherent to numerous fields of human endeavour including engineering, science, and business and finance. This thesis presents multiple novel methods for quickly detecting and estimating uncertainties in several important classes of stochastic processes. The significance of these novel methods is demonstrated by employing them to detect aircraft manoeuvres in video signals in the important application of autonomous mid-air collision avoidance.

Uplink power control via adaptive Hidden-Markov-Model-Based pathloss estimation

Dynamic variations in channel behavior is considered in transmission power control design for cellular radio systems. It is well known that power control increases system capacity, improves Quality of Service (QoS), and reduces multiuser interference. In this paper, an adaptive power control design based on the identification of the underlying pathloss dynamics of the fading channel is presented. Formulating power control decisions based on the measured received power levels allows modeling the fading channel pathloss dynamics in terms of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Applying the online HMM identification algorithm enables accurate estimation of the real pathloss ensuring efficient performance of the suggested power control scheme.

A HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL FOR JOINT ESTIMATION OF GENOTYPE AND COPY NUMBER IN HIGH-THROUGHPUT SNP CHIPS

Amplifications and deletions of chromosomal DNA, as well as copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity have been associated with diseases processes. High-throughput single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays are useful for making genome-wide estimates of copy number and genotype calls. Because neighboring SNPs in high throughput SNP arrays are likely to have dependent copy number and genotype due to the underlying haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium, hidden Markov models (HMM) may be useful for improving genotype calls and copy number estimates that do not incorporate information from nearby SNPs. We improve previous approaches that utilize a HMM framework for inference in high throughput SNP arrays by integrating copy number, genotype calls, and the corresponding confidence scores when available. Using simulated data, we demonstrate how confidence scores control smoothing in a probabilistic framework. Software for fitting HMMs to SNP array data is available in the R package ICE.

Relative entropy rate based multiple hidden Markov Model Approximation

This paper proposes a novel relative entropy rate (RER) based approach for multiple HMM (MHMM) approximation of a class of discrete-time uncertain processes. Under different uncertainty assumptions, the model design problem is posed either as a min-max optimisation problem or stochastic minimisation problem on the RER between joint laws describing the state and output processes (rather than the more usual RER between output processes). A suitable filter is proposed for which performance results are established which bound conditional mean estimation performance and show that estimation performance improves as the RER is reduced. These filter consistency and convergence bounds are the first results characterising multiple HMM approximation performance and suggest that joint RER concepts provide a useful model selection criteria. The proposed model design process and MHMM filter are demonstrated on an important image processing dim-target detection problem.

A hidden Markov model and relative entropy rate approach to vision-based dim target detection for UAV sense-and-avoid

Uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a cutting-edge technology that is at the forefront of aviation/aerospace research and development worldwide. Many consider their current military and defence applications as just a token of their enormous potential. Unlocking and fully exploiting this potential will see UAVs in a multitude of civilian applications and routinely operating alongside piloted aircraft. The key to realising the full potential of UAVs lies in addressing a host of regulatory, public relation, and technological challenges never encountered be- fore. Aircraft collision avoidance is considered to be one of the most important issues to be addressed, given its safety critical nature. The collision avoidance problem can be roughly organised into three areas: 1) Sense; 2) Detect; and 3) Avoid. Sensing is concerned with obtaining accurate and reliable information about other aircraft in the air; detection involves identifying potential collision threats based on available information; avoidance deals with the formulation and execution of appropriate manoeuvres to maintain safe separation. This thesis tackles the detection aspect of collision avoidance, via the development of a target detection algorithm that is capable of real-time operation onboard a UAV platform. One of the key challenges of the detection problem is the need to provide early warning. This translates to detecting potential threats whilst they are still far away, when their presence is likely to be obscured and hidden by noise. Another important consideration is the choice of sensors to capture target information, which has implications for the design and practical implementation of the detection algorithm. The main contributions of the thesis are: 1) the proposal of a dim target detection algorithm combining image morphology and hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering approaches; 2) the novel use of relative entropy rate (RER) concepts for HMM filter design; 3) the characterisation of algorithm detection performance based on simulated data as well as real in-flight target image data; and 4) the demonstration of the proposed algorithm's capacity for real-time target detection. We also consider the extension of HMM filtering techniques and the application of RER concepts for target heading angle estimation. In this thesis we propose a computer-vision based detection solution, due to the commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) availability of camera hardware and the hardware's relatively low cost, power, and size requirements. The proposed target detection algorithm adopts a two-stage processing paradigm that begins with an image enhancement pre-processing stage followed by a track-before-detect (TBD) temporal processing stage that has been shown to be effective in dim target detection. We compare the performance of two candidate morphological filters for the image pre-processing stage, and propose a multiple hidden Markov model (MHMM) filter for the TBD temporal processing stage. The role of the morphological pre-processing stage is to exploit the spatial features of potential collision threats, while the MHMM filter serves to exploit the temporal characteristics or dynamics. The problem of optimising our proposed MHMM filter has been examined in detail. Our investigation has produced a novel design process for the MHMM filter that exploits information theory and entropy related concepts. The filter design process is posed as a mini-max optimisation problem based on a joint RER cost criterion. We provide proof that this joint RER cost criterion provides a bound on the conditional mean estimate (CME) performance of our MHMM filter, and this in turn establishes a strong theoretical basis connecting our filter design process to filter performance. Through this connection we can intelligently compare and optimise candidate filter models at the design stage, rather than having to resort to time consuming Monte Carlo simulations to gauge the relative performance of candidate designs. Moreover, the underlying entropy concepts are not constrained to any particular model type. This suggests that the RER concepts established here may be generalised to provide a useful design criterion for multiple model filtering approaches outside the class of HMM filters. In this thesis we also evaluate the performance of our proposed target detection algorithm under realistic operation conditions, and give consideration to the practical deployment of the detection algorithm onboard a UAV platform. Two fixed-wing UAVs were engaged to recreate various collision-course scenarios to capture highly realistic vision (from an onboard camera perspective) of the moments leading up to a collision. Based on this collected data, our proposed detection approach was able to detect targets out to distances ranging from about 400m to 900m. These distances, (with some assumptions about closing speeds and aircraft trajectories) translate to an advanced warning ahead of impact that approaches the 12.5 second response time recommended for human pilots. Furthermore, readily available graphic processing unit (GPU) based hardware is exploited for its parallel computing capabilities to demonstrate the practical feasibility of the proposed target detection algorithm. A prototype hardware-in- the-loop system has been found to be capable of achieving data processing rates sufficient for real-time operation. There is also scope for further improvement in performance through code optimisations. Overall, our proposed image-based target detection algorithm offers UAVs a cost-effective real-time target detection capability that is a step forward in ad- dressing the collision avoidance issue that is currently one of the most significant obstacles preventing widespread civilian applications of uninhabited aircraft. We also highlight that the algorithm development process has led to the discovery of a powerful multiple HMM filtering approach and a novel RER-based multiple filter design process. The utility of our multiple HMM filtering approach and RER concepts, however, extend beyond the target detection problem. This is demonstrated by our application of HMM filters and RER concepts to a heading angle estimation problem.

Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

Learning and detecting activities from movement trajectories using the hierarchical hidden Markov model

Directly modeling the inherent hierarchy and shared structures of human behaviors, we present an application of the hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) for the problem of activity recognition. We argue that to robustly model and recognize complex human activities, it is crucial to exploit both the natural hierarchical decomposition and shared semantics embedded in the movement trajectories. To this end, we propose the use of the HHMM, a rich stochastic model that has been recently extended to handle shared structures, for representing and recognizing a set of complex indoor activities. Furthermore, in the need of real-time recognition, we propose a Rao-Blackwellised particle filter (RBPF) that efficiently computes the filtering distribution at a constant time complexity for each new observation arrival. The main contributions of this paper lie in the application of the shared-structure HHMM, the estimation of the model's parameters at all levels simultaneously, and a construction of an RBPF approximate inference scheme. The experimental results in a real-world environment have confirmed our belief that directly modeling shared structures not only reduces computational cost, but also improves recognition accuracy when compared with the tree HHMM and the flat HMM.

Thai word segmentation with hidden Markov Model and decision tree

The Thai written language is one of the languages that does not have word boundaries. In order to discover the meaning of the document, all texts must be separated into syllables, words, sentences, and paragraphs. This paper develops a novel method to segment the Thai text by combining a non-dictionary based technique with a dictionary-based technique. This method first applies the Thai language grammar rules to the text for identifying syllables. The hidden Markov model is then used for merging possible syllables into words. The identified words are verified with a lexical dictionary and a decision tree is employed to discover the words unidentified by the lexical dictionary. Documents used in the litigation process of Thai court proceedings have been used in experiments. The results which are segmented words, obtained by the proposed method outperform the results obtained by other existing methods.

Anomalous event detection using a semi-two dimensional hidden Markov model

The rapid increase in the deployment of CCTV systems has led to a greater demand for algorithms that are able to process incoming video feeds. These algorithms are designed to extract information of interest for human operators. During the past several years, there has been a large effort to detect abnormal activities through computer vision techniques. Typically, the problem is formulated as a novelty detection task where the system is trained on normal data and is required to detect events which do not fit the learned `normal' model. Many researchers have tried various sets of features to train different learning models to detect abnormal behaviour in video footage. In this work we propose using a Semi-2D Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to model the normal activities of people. The outliers of the model with insufficient likelihood are identified as abnormal activities. Our Semi-2D HMM is designed to model both the temporal and spatial causalities of the crowd behaviour by assuming the current state of the Hidden Markov Model depends not only on the previous state in the temporal direction, but also on the previous states of the adjacent spatial locations. Two different HMMs are trained to model both the vertical and horizontal spatial causal information. Location features, flow features and optical flow textures are used as the features for the model. The proposed approach is evaluated using the publicly available UCSD datasets and we demonstrate improved performance compared to other state of the art methods.

A hidden Markov model approach for determining vessel activity from vessel monitoring system data.

Many fisheries worldwide have adopted vessel monitoring systems (VMS) for compliance purposes. An added benefit of these systems is that they collect a large amount of data on vessel locations at very fine spatial and temporal scales. This data can provide a wealth of information for stock assessment, research, and management. However, since most VMS implementations record vessel location at set time intervals with no regard to vessel activity, some methodology is required to determine which data records correspond to fishing activity. This paper describes a probabilistic approach, based on hidden Markov models (HMMs), to determine vessel activity. A HMM provides a natural framework for the problem and, by definition, models the intrinsic temporal correlation of the data. The paper describes the general approach that was developed and presents an example of this approach applied to the Queensland trawl fishery off the coast of eastern Australia. Finally, a simulation experiment is presented that compares the misallocation rates of the HMM approach with other approaches.