Mutual Fund Performance and the Market Timing Ability - Finnish Evidence

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the performance of Finnish equity funds and their market timing ability. Fund performance is evaluated by using annual returns and various risk-adjusted measures, including Sharpe ratio, DDSR, SKASR, Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha, whereas portfolio manager’s timing ability is examined with Treynor-Mazuy model and Henriksson-Merton model. The data is collected from the Finnish fund market during the sample period from January 1997 to February 2010. Results show that Finnish equity funds have been able to outperform the market return on a risk-adjusted basis, but these results are influenced heavily by the exceptionally good performance during the IT-bubble. Market timing models show that fund managers have been, to some degree, able to time the market but not a single fund have been able to possess security selection ability and market timing ability simultaneously.

Avaliação do desempenho de fundos de investimento de ouro nos EUA: influência dos diferentes regimes de mercado na seletividade e market-timing

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

Market timing e avaliação de desempenho dos fundos brasileiros

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de fundos de investimento brasileiros pelo seu market timing, ou seja, pela capacidade de os gestores anteciparem diferenças de retorno das ações em relação a um ativo de renda fixa. Utilizam-se testes - paramétrico e não-paramétrico - desenvolvidos por Henriksson e Merton para a análise do desempenho de 243 fundos, no período de setembro de 1998 a outubro de 2003. Encontra-se evidência de habilidade de market timing para uma minoria de gestores de fundos, resultado que aparentemente se deve à maior facilidade de se preverem grandes diferenças de retorno entre o mercado acionário e a taxa de juros livre de risco.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Improving mutual fund market timing measures: a markov switching approach

Market timing performance of mutual funds is usually evaluated with linear models with dummy variables which allow for the beta coefficient of CAPM to vary across two regimes: bullish and bearish market excess returns. Managers, however, use their predictions of the state of nature to deÞne whether to carry low or high beta portfolios instead of the observed ones. Our approach here is to take this into account and model market timing as a switching regime in a way similar to Hamilton s Markov-switching GNP model. We then build a measure of market timing success and apply it to simulated and real world data.

Análise empírica da presença de "Market timing" no mercado acionário brasileiro

Este trabalho objetiva verificar a existência de “Market Timing” no mercado acionário brasileiro. Os nossos estudos foram divididos em três análises distintas. Primeiro verificamos a presença de “market-timing” nos IPOs e posteriormente expandimos para as ofertas subseqüentes de ações (OSAs). Por último verificamos a persistência dos efeitos do “Market Timing” sobre a estrutura de capital das empresas. Os resultados dos nossos estudos mostram que as empresas brasileiras tendem a emitir mais capital quando o mercado está aquecido. Essas emissões acontecem através de IPOs e de OSAs e alteram a estrutura de capital dessas empresas. Com o passar do tempo essa alteração na estrutura de capital tende a diminuir.

Market timing as a motive for IPOs: evidence from IPOs of Japanese keiretsu firms

This paper examines the relevance of market timing as a motive for initial public offerings (IPOs) by comparing IPOs of firms that are members of Japanese keiretsu industrial groups with IPOs of independent Japanese firms. We argue that Japanese keiretsu-linked IPOs form a favorable sample to find evidence of the market timing motive. Instead, the data provide strong evidence for a restructuring motive and little evidence for market timing. We find that long run returns to keiretsu and independent IPOs are not negative, contrary to U.S. evidence, and are indistinguishable from each other; initial returns to keiretsu-linked IPOs are significantly higher than to independent firms; and a significant number of keiretsu IPO firms adjust their linkages with the group following the IPO, with both increases and decreases.

Suomalaisen rahastosijoittajan profiili

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on luoda suomalaisen rahastosijoittajan profiili. Tutkimuskohteena ovat sijoittajien demografiset ominaisuudet, rahastosijoitukset sekä rahastotransaktiot. Aineistona on erään suomalaisen rahastoyhtiön henkilöasiakastietokanta vuosilta 1998 - 2003. Tutkimustulosten mukaan rahastosijoittaminen on yleistynyt Suomessa viime vuosien aikana. Erityisesti naisten määrä rahastosijoittajien joukossa on kasvussa. Rahastosijoitusten suuruus riippuu sijoittajan iästä sekä sukupuolesta. Mitä vanhempi sijoittaja on, sitä enemmän hän on sijoittanut rahastoihin. Lisäksi miehet sijoittavat suurempia summia kuin naiset. Viimeisten kolmen vuoden aikana suomalaisten rahastosijoittajien sijoituskohteiden painopiste on muuttunut riskillisemmistä rahastoista vähäriskisiin rahastoihin, erityisesti lyhyen koron rahastoihin. Osakemarkkinoiden mennyt kehitys vaikuttaa sijoituspäätöksiin. Rahastosijoittajien markkina-ajoituskyky on kuitenkin melko heikko. Miehet tekevät aktiivisemmin merkintöjä ja lunastuksia ja lisäksi reagoivat naisia nopeammin markkinoiden muutoksiin.

Pohjoismaisten yhdistelmärahastojen menestyminen vuosina 1999–2012

Tämä Pro Gradu -tutkielma tarkastelee Pohjoismaisten yhdistelmärahastojen menestymistä vuosina 1999–2012. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tutkia rahastonhoitajien markkina-ajoituskykyä kolmella eri periodilla. Periodit koostuvat vuosista 1999–2005, 2006–2012 ja 1999–2012. Tutkimuksessa käytetään monia tunnettuja riskin huomioivia mittareita, kuten esimerkiksi Sharpen indeksiä ja Jensenin alfaa. Markkina-ajoituskykyä testataan Treynor-Mazuy ja Henriksson-Merton -malleilla. Tutkimus osoittaa, että vain harvoilla rahastonhoitajilla on markkina-ajoituskykyä. Tutkimuksesta ei myöskään löydetä viitteitä siitä, että tietyn-tyyppiset yhdistelmärahastot suoriutuisivat paremmin markkinoilla.

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

The timing and selection ability of UK property funds: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the selectivity and market timing performance of a sample of 21 UK property funds over the period Q3 1977 through to Q2 1987. The main finding of which that there is evidence of some superior selectivity performance on the part of UK property funds but that there are few funds who are able to successfully time the market.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.